Technical next steps

n7axw wrote:

JeffEngel wrote:I sometimes think there was a second PICA with a very, very light touch who got behind that bit of bribery out of Harchong.

I agree. If gunpowder didn't waken the Rakurai, it does call into question the thought they are on automatics.

Don

Whilst I agree a ground station in the Temple is possible (and based on textev probable) the knowledge to use it is another question entirely. I suspect the key probably contains a AI database to lead the user through the activation and use of the system (if not a stored personality) and was separated to keep a man in the loop and prevent the stored personality becoming unstable. We know that there were limits on how long a PICA could stay active autonomously, why not the same hard coded limits for an armed self aware AI? (Particularly as we have textev of AI's going a little strange over long periods alone (just like people do...))

The issue for a dumber AI is what is detectible from orbit, emissions of electromagnetic radiation certainly (particularly if you don't know about electromagnetic theory). Possibly nitrous oxides, if they creep above natural background.
Synthetic fluoride and chloride compounds (CFC's and the like) but only as gases (including venting from production facilities).
Nuclear events would attract attention so a WWII era bomb or artillery shell would probably be a step too far (but are build-able with current Safehold technology).

Sulphur Dioxide & Carbon Dioxide from gunpowder would vanish into the background, the difference from background noise would be very hard to see. A large smelter (or town gas works) could be within the limits of technology as the emissions would be similar to a coal seam fire (lots of smoke, soot, sulphur dioxide, carbon dioxide and miscellaneous hydrocarbons). Given traditionally smelters were located near coal seams this would be conceivable. A town burning coal for heat would have emissions that would dwarf any but the largest single iron smelter (London's smogs in the 18th to 19th centuries were positively lethal - and that was largely from burning coal shipped by sail ship from Newcastle)(Beijing's isn't much better now, Seattle's smog is shipped in to a large degree(how's that for out sourcing production)).

AirTech wrote:

n7axw wrote:
I agree. If gunpowder didn't waken the Rakurai, it does call into question the thought they are on automatics.

Don

The issue for a dumber AI is what is detectible from orbit, emissions of electromagnetic radiation certainly (particularly if you don't know about electromagnetic theory).

I'm almost starting to side with the deactivated OBS idea myself.
AirTech, you ask what's detectable from orbit and the answer is, quite a lot actually. We use orbital sensors now to measure pollution output from factory complexes and cities. We can certainly see built structures vie photo recon satellites, and we know what smelters, blast furnaces and the like, look like. People wave off the idea that many of the phenomena from Delthak and Charis should trigger an OBS strike by raising the argument of naturally occurring phenomena. Well they could be dismissed as naturally occurring, but only for a short while, and only by a very dumb (or poorly commanded) AI.
Volcanic vents and coal seam burning have very specific spectral signatures. Volcanic vents are only for a bit and coal seams generally wouldn't have high ferric content. Neither have a constant emission but rather they vary highly over time in a random pattern, Delthak on the other hand is going to be relatively stable with rhythmic patterns (when furnaces are emptied and refilled on a regular, man-made basis) emission output . Also volcanic vents and coal seam fires generally don't have large man made structures sitting on them. I'm assuming that TF level tech is even better at discriminating objects, and patterns from orbit than those of our present period. If there was an active AI commanding the OBS/Rakuri system it should certainly have twigged to the energy output levels at Delthak as being well out of skew with per-determined levels for a tech-limited society before now.
So either the system is switched off/in passive mode and does require a human command to smite (which no one knows how to give) or the system is on a delay fuse and is integrating information over time and waiting for a sufficiently long baseline to be able to rule out natural phenomena before striking.
Or the programmers were idiots that has no knowledge of history and simply plugged in a dumb rule like "Electricity bad, anything else OK". I suppose, after all, that you could argue they were only really interested in tech that the Gbaba could detect at interstellar distance, so outside of electrical broadcast, or a nuke flash, nothing can really be seen from a couple of light years out.
Now if the AI is simply accumulating baseline and it gets enough of it... well maybe that's the destructive event that occurs to Delthak that is being speculated about in a different thread.
I have to admit though, given what I would imagine Terran Federation tech should be capable of, both in competent orbital sensors and AI, the most likely scenario sure seems like the system is in "smite only with human/archangel approval mode".

Heck I think at this point I'd try a small AM broadcast station down on that same stretch were Merlin did the steam engine experiment and see if the OBS plays "drop the rock" on it. The point of stress testing isn't to see where something doesn't break, it's to see where it does.
(Start broadcasting old Elvis hits and Disco music. Station ID as Radio Free Alexandria, with commercials for free library passes to the kiddies! If that combo don't get you a rock in the head, nothing will!)

Larry

Larry wrote:SNIPP


Heck I think at this point I'd try a small AM broadcast station down on that same stretch were Merlin did the steam engine experiment and see if the OBS plays "drop the rock" on it. The point of stress testing isn't to see where something doesn't break, it's to see where it does.
(Start broadcasting old Elvis hits and Disco music. Station ID as Radio Free Alexandria, with commercials for free library passes to the kiddies! If that combo don't get you a rock in the head, nothing will!)

Larry

And what if the Rakurai phones home to Daddy and asks for instructions, in turn waking up whatever is under the temple?

Or to quote Lovecraft: That is not dead which can eternal lie, And with strange aeons even death may die.

A diesel engine is just a fancy arrangement for burning oil and all the work gets done by the heated 'air' that's produced. Where's the problem?

Larry

The AI is extremely dumb. I isn't an AI. It is basic automation(if there is any remember that this is all based on the possibility that there is something checking emissions). The 'Archangels' couldn't leave an AI in continuous operation for centuries. It would have gone insane. Also they wouldn't want to set off the Rakuri by accident so choosing signatures which can only be produced by modern/semi-modern technology is a really good idea. Burning coal is burning coal. So if you have two million people in Zion burning coal for heat, how can you tell the difference between that and a steam engine pumping out a mine?

Highjohn wrote:Larry

The AI is extremely dumb. I isn't an AI. It is basic automation(if there is any remember that this is all based on the possibility that there is something checking emissions). The 'Archangels' couldn't leave an AI in continuous operation for centuries. It would have gone insane. Also they wouldn't want to set off the Rakuri by accident so choosing signatures which can only be produced by modern/semi-modern technology is a really good idea. Burning coal is burning coal. So if you have two million people in Zion burning coal for heat, how can you tell the difference between that and a steam engine pumping out a mine?

I suppose that the best answer to the question is that we could do it. You'd use photography, analysis of smog, regularity of occurance and a whole host of other things. The satelites above earth at this moment in time can read the name on a mailbox from orbit. It would be a bit strange if Terran Federation tech couldn't do even better.

The serious questions here are is the OBS fully functional after 750 years? We know that the self defense part works, but what about the rest? Is the OBS set up on automatics or does it require input from an outside source of command? If it needs an outside source of command, where is the command source? Under the temple? On the command ship which wasn't destroyed after all?

Dunno, but it will be interesting to find out.

Don

n7axw wrote:

Highjohn wrote:Larry

The AI is extremely dumb. I isn't an AI. It is basic automation(if there is any remember that this is all based on the possibility that there is something checking emissions). The 'Archangels' couldn't leave an AI in continuous operation for centuries. It would have gone insane. Also they wouldn't want to set off the Rakuri by accident so choosing signatures which can only be produced by modern/semi-modern technology is a really good idea. Burning coal is burning coal. So if you have two million people in Zion burning coal for heat, how can you tell the difference between that and a steam engine pumping out a mine?

I suppose that the best answer to the question is that we could do it. You'd use photography, analysis of smog, regularity of occurance and a whole host of other things. The satelites above earth at this moment in time can read the name on a mailbox from orbit. It would be a bit strange if Terran Federation tech couldn't do even better.

The serious questions here are is the OBS fully functional after 750 years? We know that the self defense part works, but what about the rest? Is the OBS set up on automatics or does it require input from an outside source of command? If it needs an outside source of command, where is the command source? Under the temple? On the command ship which wasn't destroyed after all?

Dunno, but it will be interesting to find out.

Don

If I was setting a system up like this, given the wake up command is a one shot (based on the Wilsyn's instructions for the key) I would opt for very conservative limits for what is permissible under the proscriptions if they were taken to the ultimate extreme. A water powered blast furnace would be possible to the Romans for example so would not be an obvious breach. (The Romans on the other hand made a political decision not to build them as they preferred to use slaves). The issue is not whether something is detectable but rather is it possible that it could be within the proscriptions. Low pressure combustion processes would not reach the trigger limits as a coal heated city is not significantly different from a coal fired steel mill as to its emissions.
The basic assumption would be that the CoGA would chase down researchers and only if it fell would technology advance - hence the Wilsyn's key. The base assumption could also hinge the arrogance of the people who set them up.

n7axw wrote:The serious questions here are is the OBS fully functional after 750 years?

I think the main -- and only -- test on whether to try a new technology is, "do we need this badly enough that we can risk being wrong?"

Whether the OBS ultimately works or not, or whether it "ought to" detect/discriminate one technology over another is irrelevant to the risk assessment of whether pushing a possible trigger event/level is worth the risk of triggering the OBS.

n7axw wrote:quote="Joat42" quote="looksbeforeheleaps" The problem is that steam engines can be explained away as a variation of wind (or water) power. Internal combustion engines cannot be explained away that way. So even if they don't trigger the Rakurai, such engines are very likely to trigger a purely human backlash. The Gang of Four and its supporters may already consider Charisians and their allies to all be heretics and the Reformers may disagree with the church, but if too many of the Reformers decide their leaders are openly defying the proscriptions, then Charis is in serious trouble./quote
An internal combustion engine is just a cannon where you have a reciprocating piston instead of a shell and another source of energy than explosives.

I can see how Paityr could twist it like that.
/quote

Actually the most dramatic break with the proscriptions isn't steam, it's gunpowder. Talk about something outside the limit of wind, water and muscle! And the church approved it!

Don

Nah, that was easy, it's just the power of the wind, contained within a powder, waiting to be released.

Weird Harold wrote:

n7axw wrote:The serious questions here are is the OBS fully functional after 750 years?

I think the main -- and only -- test on whether to try a new technology is, "do we need this badly enough that we can risk being wrong?"

Whether the OBS ultimately works or not, or whether it "ought to" detect/discriminate one technology over another is irrelevant to the risk assessment of whether pushing a possible trigger event/level is worth the risk of triggering the OBS.

I think that is true for now. But eventually the problem that the OBS presents has to be confronted and dealt with. I hope there is an accessible computer somewhere with some info on it.

Don