HFQ Official Snippet #19 (I think)

Nice analysis. Your two most convincing points are the one about the roads and Delthak, although I'm not convinced Delthak can move that fast on the river. They were doing 10 miles an hour on those canals towing barges. My concern would be with safety issues. Delthak won't want to slide into a sand bar at 20 miles an hour and rivers are less predicable than canals.

I think Ahlverez has enough cavalry to deal with patrols, probably with those Desnairian archers in ambush. As for getting people to the other bank, saying that there is not an immediate way to get an army across is not to say that he can't get anyone across. Those patrols you are talking about are not omnipresent.

As for the timeline, humm. Maybe. Still, nice analysis. It's certainly a fresh look at the situation and provides a fresh perspective and a lot of food for thought. Good work.

Don

n7axw wrote:Nice analysis. Your two most convincing points are the one about the roads and Delthak, although I'm not convinced Delthak can move that fast on the river. They were doing 10 miles an hour on those canals towing barges. My concern would be with safety issues. Delthak won't want to slide into a sand bar at 20 miles an hour and rivers are less predicable than canals.

I think Ahlverez has enough cavalry to deal with patrols, probably with those Desnairian archers in ambush. As for getting people to the other bank, saying that there is not an immediate way to get an army across is not to say that he can't get anyone across. Those patrols you are talking about are not omnipresent.

As for the timeline, humm. Maybe. Still, nice analysis. It's certainly a fresh look at the situation and provides a fresh perspective and a lot of food for thought. Good work.

Don

Which patrols would do over which patrols?

Surely Hanth would have wide ranging [not just up/down the river bank], well equipped scouts keeping an eye out for Alvarahez's approach. 40,000 men is not something that is easy to hide!

I've got to fancy the chances of a well equiped well nourished Charisian patrol against half starved Desnarians

I went looking for something in #19 and while doing so noticed these two bits.

“If their spy reports were as accurate as usual, it was likely to prove a tough slabnut to crack.”

“...but it was obvious he hadn’t been prepared to risk his army’s existence on that belief. And their spies reported another barricade across the river five miles farther north. However willing the engineers might be, ...”

One of the foundations of most of the discussion here has been the lack of current, information for the commanders in this part of Safehold. What if that's not the case? Bahrns references two instances of current tactical information received from “their spies”.

The logical explanation is the reports are from loyal locals, or scout-snipers moving up the river with Rhychtyr. But...., what if OWL/Nahrman have set up some sort of dead-drop system that gets Snarc intel to our field commanders? The words “as accurate as usual” are what drew my attention.

If the former, the question becomes, “how wide and where is the area under surveillance?” If the latter, Ahlverez is truly toast and Hanth/DE/HM are waiting for a convenient time to scoop him up. (Picture an ICA captain or major riding up, under a white flag of course, to a Dohlaran scout with a message for General Ahlverez. )

'Course I maybe reading too much into these refernces, but...

Hi Ed Thomas,

I've just got caught up in reading this thread, and kudos to all for the interesting comments.

Time is pressing, but I just wanted to say that I suspect one reason RFC may have held off enlightening us id that he's been rolling on the floor laughing enjoying our mistaken assumptions so much.

Hopefully I'll be able to comment more later.

L

EdThomas wrote:I went looking for something in #19 and while doing so noticed these two bits.

“If their spy reports were as accurate as usual, it was likely to prove a tough slabnut to crack.”

“...but it was obvious he hadn’t been prepared to risk his army’s existence on that belief. And their spies reported another barricade across the river five miles farther north. However willing the engineers might be, ...”

One of the foundations of most of the discussion here has been the lack of current, information for the commanders in this part of Safehold. What if that's not the case? Bahrns references two instances of current tactical information received from “their spies”.

The logical explanation is the reports are from loyal locals, or scout-snipers moving up the river with Rhychtyr. But...., what if OWL/Nahrman have set up some sort of dead-drop system that gets Snarc intel to our field commanders? The words “as accurate as usual” are what drew my attention.

If the former, the question becomes, “how wide and where is the area under surveillance?” If the latter, Ahlverez is truly toast and Hanth/DE/HM are waiting for a convenient time to scoop him up. (Picture an ICA captain or major riding up, under a white flag of course, to a Dohlaran scout with a message for General Ahlverez. )

'Course I maybe reading too much into these refernces, but...

If you are, you probably have lots of company. I know that's how I read them, anyway.

I've been taking it for granted that Hanth knows that Ahlverez is on the lam, but not precisely where he is. Which is fair enough, since Ahlverez probably doesn't know precisely where he is either.

EdThomas wrote:
'Course I maybe reading too much into these refernces, but...

I'm concerned about sand bars too

The speed is based on a guess about average current. Delthak can do 13+ [local] knots through the water without barges, and from what we've been shown, the current is likely to be in the 5-8kt range most places - it's probably a bit stronger than that where the barricade and battery are. Add the two and you get a nice sum. Bahrns will know where the nasty spots are, assuming he doesn't have a local pilot on board, and shouldn't have any issues in daylight. It does make the transit time a little uncertain, of course, since he has less that 13 hours of daylight and may not be able to pass all the tricky parts in the available time. OTOH, it could be Ahlverez' unlucky day, with enough moonlight to make the difference.

n7axw wrote:Nice analysis. Your two most convincing points are the one about the roads and Delthak, although I'm not convinced Delthak can move that fast on the river. They were doing 10 miles an hour on those canals towing barges. My concern would be with safety issues. Delthak won't want to slide into a sand bar at 20 miles an hour and rivers are less predicable than canals.

I think Ahlverez has enough cavalry to deal with patrols, probably with those Desnairian archers in ambush. As for getting people to the other bank, saying that there is not an immediate way to get an army across is not to say that he can't get anyone across. Those patrols you are talking about are not omnipresent.

As for the timeline, humm. Maybe. Still, nice analysis. It's certainly a fresh look at the situation and provides a fresh perspective and a lot of food for thought. Good work.

Don

Louis R wrote:I'm concerned about sand bars too

The speed is based on a guess about average current. Delthak can do 13+ [local] knots through the water without barges, and from what we've been shown, the current is likely to be in the 5-8kt range most places - it's probably a bit stronger than that where the barricade and battery are. Add the two and you get a nice sum. Bahrns will know where the nasty spots are, assuming he doesn't have a local pilot on board, and shouldn't have any issues in daylight. It does make the transit time a little uncertain, of course, since he has less that 13 hours of daylight and may not be able to pass all the tricky parts in the available time. OTOH, it could be Ahlverez' unlucky day, with enough moonlight to make the difference.

HMS Delthak doesn't have brakes and its crew cannot see underwater, and I doubt very much if its captain or pilot would want to be doing 20 knots in a river under any circumstances unless it is known to be a very wide and deep river. One mistake, or an unexpected rock or sandbank, at that speed is likely to prove terminal. I would imagine enough speed to give steerage way, especially going downstream, will be quite enough.

Peter2 wrote:

Louis R wrote:I'm concerned about sand bars too

The speed is based on a guess about average current. Delthak can do 13+ [local] knots through the water without barges, and from what we've been shown, the current is likely to be in the 5-8kt range most places - it's probably a bit stronger than that where the barricade and battery are. Add the two and you get a nice sum. Bahrns will know where the nasty spots are, assuming he doesn't have a local pilot on board, and shouldn't have any issues in daylight. It does make the transit time a little uncertain, of course, since he has less that 13 hours of daylight and may not be able to pass all the tricky parts in the available time. OTOH, it could be Ahlverez' unlucky day, with enough moonlight to make the difference.

HMS Delthak doesn't have brakes and its crew cannot see underwater, and I doubt very much if its captain or pilot would want to be doing 20 knots in a river under any circumstances unless it is known to be a very wide and deep river. One mistake, or an unexpected rock or sandbank, at that speed is likely to prove terminal. I would imagine enough speed to give steerage way, especially going downstream, will be quite enough.

That is my view of the situation. They have only been over it once previously. Unless they have a pilot who has done it repeatedly, caution is in order.

Don

EdThomas wrote:I went looking for something in #19 and while doing so noticed these two bits.

“If their spy reports were as accurate as usual, it was likely to prove a tough slabnut to crack.”

“...but it was obvious he hadn’t been prepared to risk his army’s existence on that belief. And their spies reported another barricade across the river five miles farther north. However willing the engineers might be, ...”

One of the foundations of most of the discussion here has been the lack of current, information for the commanders in this part of Safehold. What if that's not the case? Bahrns references two instances of current tactical information received from “their spies”.

The logical explanation is the reports are from loyal locals, or scout-snipers moving up the river with Rhychtyr. But...., what if OWL/Nahrman have set up some sort of dead-drop system that gets Snarc intel to our field commanders? The words “as accurate as usual” are what drew my attention.

If the former, the question becomes, “how wide and where is the area under surveillance?” If the latter, Ahlverez is truly toast and Hanth/DE/HM are waiting for a convenient time to scoop him up. (Picture an ICA captain or major riding up, under a white flag of course, to a Dohlaran scout with a message for General Ahlverez. )

'Course I maybe reading too much into these refernces, but...

If Merlin and company have been feeding Hanth and DE info about Ahlverez--and that is a reasonable assunption given past precedent--his chances of escape diminish drasticly. In fact, the only rational I can see for his escaping is that someone decided that the situation with Rychtyr is critical enough to demand the exclusive attention of Hanth and whatever reinforcements they have been able to get to him.

Given the balance of power, that rational doesn't really make sense.

Don

n7axw wrote:If Merlin and company have been feeding Hanth and DE info about Ahlverez--and that is a reasonable assunption given past precedent--his chances of escape diminish drasticly.

Exactly. And Merlin would feed that information to whoever commands at the theatre in time before anything untowards happens. And Ahlverez in the rear area of Hanth's force would be unfortunate. He might decide to attack instead of fleeing...
Moreover, there are two major roads in the area Ahlverez has to cross:
Ft. Tairy - Malyktyn - Cheryk - Somyr and
Thesmar - Cheryk - Ft. Sheldyn - Syrk.
Now, these are rather major population centers (for South March) and will not be completely evacuated by now. By corollary, the Allies will have garrisoned those places, especially if they know enemy troops are around. I can't figure a situation where at least these major transport routes are not regularly monitored and guarded. Ahlverez has 40k beaten soldiers marching - at best - on minor roads. He's low on provisions and draft animals. He'll move slowly. He can't really hide his troops.
Unless the Allies would let his force escape, he's in a bleak situation.
And I don't think intervention by Merlin is even necessary, the Charisian commanders tend to be competent...