HFQ Official Snippet #19 (I think)

Randomiser wrote:

SYED wrote: wont the 10000 desnairs cause issues? who will pay and supply them, will they permanently join dohlar or would they be rented? will they be allowed in dohlar or just seen as disposable?

currently ahlverez has good will due to the size of the force he kept intact, but they have limited supplies, stuck in what could be called enemy territory, and more than likely out gunned. that force could easily get slashed if a few things just go wrong.

The Desnairian troops are honoured allies who will either be assigned detached service with Dohlar by their high command or repatriated , via Salthar Bay if necessary. The Dohlarans will be in a whole pile of trouble with the CoGA if they just abandon 10000 Jihadi troops. Naturally Desnair pays for them, where's the issue?

"Honoured allies" may be overly polite under the circumstances, but they are at least comrades-in-arms and 10,000 troops practically under Dohlaran command are going to be be well worth their cost in food and supplies in Dohlar under these circumstances.

Actual cash payments in a timely fashion to armies of Safehold is probably an imperfectly implemented tradition anyway, so if there's a delay in Desnair getting currency to them, it's still likely to be fine if Dohlar can maintain them. That shouldn't be a problem, or something Dohlar would mind so much so long as it gets their urgently needed service.

JRM wrote:

n7axw wrote:Anything to what I'm saying? Who knows? Maybe I'm full of hot air. Possibly we'll know more about where Ahlverez is at and his situation with the next snippet.

Don

Hi Don,

Our guesses have been recorded, and someone will get to say, "I told you so."

My question is: Is there anything that is hot in South Dakota right now?

James

Wx here has been 50s and 60s last several days. Absolutely gorgeous. I'm lovin' it!

Don

If I had to guess [which, come to think of it, I do ], the Army of Cliff Peak is a) urgently rebuilding its 2 badly mangled dragoon brigades and b) headed north into its designated area of operations. Where, BTW, it wouldn't surprise me to discover that Kaitsworth had managed to Fup again by heading south to 'hit them from behind' or find a defensible position to keep the heretics out of Cliff Peak - I'm betting that there's a reason St Alyk's is marked so clearly. He's probably thinking that that since the heretics have never faced the AoG in an open-field battle, that means they're dependent on digging in to face superior numbers. He doesn't seem very good at drawing the correct conclusions from other peoples' experiences. I'm not too sure he can do it from his own either, and sitting around waiting to be attacked won't have gone down very well.

We know from LAMA that Ahlverez succeeded in breaking contact at some point in or after clearing the southern lobe of the Kyplynger. That suggests - after all, at this point there's only one direction he can go - that Eastshare might have pushed down the road to Cheryk, to cut him off. It occurs to me, however, that if he knows that Rychtyr has been bounced out of his lines at Thesmar - which he should by now even if the info had to go via Siddar City, something I really doubt - the best operational target for him would be Evyrtyn. Hammering the Army of the Seridahn out of there and crossing the river himself would effectively trap the Army of Shiloh even if Evyrtyn isn't were Ahlverez is headed.

BTW, I think you are underestimating the difficulty of bridging the river, which is a very handsome stream. Judging by the travails of the engineers, the current, any place narrow enough to cross with a dozen barges, is going to be pretty darned fast, so you can't place pontoons without at least one guide cable - you end up with a bridge to nowhere pointed downstream if you don't have one - and the water is icy. Unless he has a complete, experienced, bridging unit with him doing that is going to take a lot of time even if there's enough cable available. It can be done, but fast enough so they won't be marching off the bridge into the muzzles of a couple of horse-batteries? And with Delthak's boys cheering them on, to boot?

n7axw wrote:What it comes down to finally is where Ahlverez is on the map. If he is where I think he is, Evyrtyn is close to 300 miles away. The notion of marching his people that far when they are hungry and low on ammo just doesn't make sense. Even if he could get through to Rychter, he would be more hindrance than help at the moment, especially with reinforcements coming up from Dohlar.

Also, what are DE and EHM doing right now? Are they joining forces with Hanth against Rychtyr who is the more dangerous enemy or are they looking for Ahlverez? If they have joined Hanth, they would have the same difficulty interdicting Ahlverez as Hanth. They would be too far west.

As James points out, this is all on very thin tea leaves. But if I were Ahlverez and managed to get to the Seridahn, I would intercept a dozen or so of Hanth's supply barges, anchor them across the river and cut enough trees to build a platform, using the barges as pontoons and march my people across before anybody could show up to intervene.

I do agree that Ahlvereez is in no shape to force a crossing against opposition.

Anything to what I'm saying? Who knows? Maybe I'm full of hot air. Possibly we'll know more about where Ahlverez is at and his situation with the next snippet.

Don

Louis R wrote:<SNIP about bridging the river quickly> And with Delthak's boys cheering them on, to boot?
<SNIP>

This gives me the image of Ahlverez's troops building their brigde, with the Delthak sitting just upstream of it, watching and giving encouragement (maybe even helpful ideas). What, it's not like Ahlverez can hurt it. Think of how good for Ahlverez's troop's morale it would be!

Not happening, of course, although Delthak might just stop upstream of the bridge if Alhverez is starting to cross (wait till the bridge is full of targets - which is likely to take a while with a warship waiting to sweep it with grape).

Louis R wrote:If I had to guess [which, come to think of it, I do ], the Army of Cliff Peak is a) urgently rebuilding its 2 badly mangled dragoon brigades and b) headed north into its designated area of operations. Where, BTW, it wouldn't surprise me to discover that Kaitsworth had managed to Fup again by heading south to 'hit them from behind' or find a defensible position to keep the heretics out of Cliff Peak - I'm betting that there's a reason St Alyk's is marked so clearly. He's probably thinking that that since the heretics have never faced the AoG in an open-field battle, that means they're dependent on digging in to face superior numbers. He doesn't seem very good at drawing the correct conclusions from other peoples' experiences. I'm not too sure he can do it from his own either, and sitting around waiting to be attacked won't have gone down very well.

We know from LAMA that Ahlverez succeeded in breaking contact at some point in or after clearing the southern lobe of the Kyplynger. That suggests - after all, at this point there's only one direction he can go - that Eastshare might have pushed down the road to Cheryk, to cut him off. It occurs to me, however, that if he knows that Rychtyr has been bounced out of his lines at Thesmar - which he should by now even if the info had to go via Siddar City, something I really doubt - the best operational target for him would be Evyrtyn. Hammering the Army of the Seridahn out of there and crossing the river himself would effectively trap the Army of Shiloh even if Evyrtyn isn't were Ahlverez is headed.

BTW, I think you are underestimating the difficulty of bridging the river, which is a very handsome stream. Judging by the travails of the engineers, the current, any place narrow enough to cross with a dozen barges, is going to be pretty darned fast, so you can't place pontoons without at least one guide cable - you end up with a bridge to nowhere pointed downstream if you don't have one - and the water is icy. Unless he has a complete, experienced, bridging unit with him doing that is going to take a lot of time even if there's enough cable available. It can be done, but fast enough so they won't be marching off the bridge into the muzzles of a couple of horse-batteries? And with Delthak's boys cheering them on, to boot?

The only way my scenario works out at all is if Delthak, DE, Hanth and who all are well up stream coping with Rychtyr who can be reinforced from Dohlar. We know, and if his scouts have reported allied barges moving upstream with supplies, Ahlverez knows that Rychtyr is retreating up stream toward his supply and eventually will arrive at Evyrtyn. Any one of those factors prove false, Ahlverez just as well thow in the towel.

As for the bridge building, you might be right. But if I am right, what else has Ahlverez got to do with his time other than build bridges once he gets to the river? Think about it. If Xerxes managed to bridge the Bosphorus, Ahlverez should be able to bridge the Seridahn... If he turns out short on barges, confiscate more, hopefully some with food in them. His troops are hungry. I am presuming he will have engineers who know how to get the job done as well as most of the necessary cable, rope or whatever in his supply train. In our time line, armies have been coping with the difficulty of crossing rivers going all the way back to antiquity. There is no reason to believe that it would be different on Safehold.

Don

akira.taylor wrote:

Louis R wrote:<SNIP about bridging the river quickly> And with Delthak's boys cheering them on, to boot?
<SNIP>

This gives me the image of Ahlverez's troops building their brigde, with the Delthak sitting just upstream of it, watching and giving encouragement (maybe even helpful ideas). What, it's not like Ahlverez can hurt it. Think of how good for Ahlverez's troop's morale it would be!

Not happening, of course, although Delthak might just stop upstream of the bridge if Alhverez is starting to cross (wait till the bridge is full of targets - which is likely to take a while with a warship waiting to sweep it with grape).

My own vision of this scenario is that Delthak waits until the bridge is filled with troops and then revs its engine, blows the whistle and simply crashes through...aiieee

Don

Trouble is, with the obstacles out there's nowhere on the lower Seridahn that Delthak can't reach in about a day sailing with the current. Anything she's needed for in dealing with Rychtyr can be postponed long enough.

n7axw wrote:
The only way my scenario works out at all is if Delthak, DE, Hanth and who all are well up stream coping with Rychtyr who can be reinforced from Dohlar. We know, and if his scouts have reported allied barges moving upstream with supplies, Ahlverez knows that Rychtyr is retreating up stream toward his supply and eventually will arrive at Evyrtyn. Any one of those factors prove false, Ahlverez just as well thow in the towel.

As for the bridge building, you might be right. But if I am right, what else has Ahlverez got to do with his time other than build bridges once he gets to the river? Think about it. If Xerxes managed to bridge the Bosphorus, Ahlverez should be able to bridge the Seridahn... If he turns out short on barges, confiscate more, hopefully some with food in them. His troops are hungry. I am presuming he will have engineers who know how to get the job done as well as most of the necessary cable, rope or whatever in his supply train. In our time line, armies have been coping with the difficulty of crossing rivers going all the way back to antiquity. There is no reason to believe that it would be different on Safehold.

Don

Louis R wrote:Trouble is, with the obstacles out there's nowhere on the lower Seridahn that Delthak can't reach in about a day sailing with the current. Anything she's needed for in dealing with Rychtyr can be postponed long enough.

n7axw wrote:
The only way my scenario works out at all is if Delthak, DE, Hanth and who all are well up stream coping with Rychtyr who can be reinforced from Dohlar. We know, and if his scouts have reported allied barges moving upstream with supplies, Ahlverez knows that Rychtyr is retreating up stream toward his supply and eventually will arrive at Evyrtyn. Any one of those factors prove false, Ahlverez just as well thow in the towel.

As for the bridge building, you might be right. But if I am right, what else has Ahlverez got to do with his time other than build bridges once he gets to the river? Think about it. If Xerxes managed to bridge the Bosphorus, Ahlverez should be able to bridge the Seridahn... If he turns out short on barges, confiscate more, hopefully some with food in them. His troops are hungry. I am presuming he will have engineers who know how to get the job done as well as most of the necessary cable, rope or whatever in his supply train. In our time line, armies have been coping with the difficulty of crossing rivers going all the way back to antiquity. There is no reason to believe that it would be different on Safehold.

Don

Figure 250 miles for Delthak. She will be at Evrtyn by the time she gets the news.

If Ahlverez takes rhe precaution of having his cavalry take out the semaphore before he shows himself on the river, I think it would be a week to 10 days maybe even longer before Hanth's supplies stop coming and he figures out that his supply line is cut. Figure two to two and a half days to get Delthak back down the river to where Ahlverez has interdicted his supplies.

Does it work? Maybe. I can see him divding his people down into shifts to work around the clock. Another thought might be to have him cutting down the trees prior to interdicting barges to minimize the time actually building the bridge.

Don.

THe water ways on the map tat is in the disrupted region are built to allow canal traffic, so i am wondering how deep are they. For heavy traffic, it would be pretty deep, and this region would allow potentially easier/quicker access to the different sides of the continets.
it takes time or an army to cross water, imagine the devestation if an armed ship come along.

Taking out the semaphore is a dead giveaway of trouble in the rear area - the reasons it worked in the Canal Raid were 1) low traffic volume [nobody was talking to Siddar anymore, and none of the non-entities on the route had much to say or any need to hear anything]; 2) the ships were actually moving quite quickly [11 hours from Fairkyn to Ohlahrn, for ex], and even so they didn't stay ahead of the news, just close enough behind it to keep out of trouble; 3) nobody was expecting trouble, so no attention was paid to the anomalies that did appear. 1) & 3) certainly don't apply here, 2) probably doesn't.

You are also making some pretty wild assumptions about Ahlverez's ability to touch Hanth's river traffic - if there is any - without being caught at it almost immediately.
First, what makes you think he can even touch it? For all we know it's running along the west bank, not the east [there are a couple of simple tricks for crossing tow ropes that would let the barges pass each other at designated locations], and in the more likely case that it runs one direction on each bank, there's bugger all he can do about the traffic along the far bank, including keeping it from noticing what he's up to on the other side. Second, why on earth wouldn't that traffic be protected by vigorous patrols? Hanth knows perfectly well that Ahlverez is out there somewhere, since he wouldn't have even started to move out of Thesmar until he knew the trap had been sprung successfully, and he also knows that there _are_ loyalists still out there who could just take it into their heads to mess things up a bit - just for the sheer bloody-mindedness of it, of course. Patrols along both banks, even if just one is in use for transport, with the lads on the eastern side particularly charged to 'let me know when the temple boys turn up'. And, again, whatever - almost certainly nothing - he might manage to pull off with the first patrol or two to run into his screen, there's bugger all he can do about the folks across the river and what they can observe and report. He most definitely is _not_ swimming any forces across the river: from the evidence, they'd be dead halfway across.

Figure a downstream speed close to 20mph for Delthak. 250 miles is 13-15 _hours_. Add 24-30 hours to get the word upriver, and the Army of Shiloh has _2_ days. And that's assuming it hasn't been spotted and shadowed before it gets within 50 miles of the river.

There actually is reason to think that crossing rivers is seen as a tactical problem, not an engineering one: Safehold is _not_ antiquity. The roads are built to much better than Roman standards and the armies use them when they aren't following canals. And roads and canals built to better than Roman standards - there's no real equivalent to the road system in real-world history - come equipped with those marvelous devices called bridges. Take the bridge and you cross; hold the bridge and the other guy doesn't cross. Even with gunpowder, _blowing_ the bridge is more than your soul is worth and would never enter the equation.

n7axw wrote:

Louis R wrote:Trouble is, with the obstacles out there's nowhere on the lower Seridahn that Delthak can't reach in about a day sailing with the current. Anything she's needed for in dealing with Rychtyr can be postponed long enough.

Figure 250 miles for Delthak. She will be at Evrtyn by the time she gets the news.

If Ahlverez takes rhe precaution of having his cavalry take out the semaphore before he shows himself on the river, I think it would be a week to 10 days maybe even longer before Hanth's supplies stop coming and he figures out that his supply line is cut. Figure two to two and a half days to get Delthak back down the river to where Ahlverez has interdicted his supplies.

Does it work? Maybe. I can see him divding his people down into shifts to work around the clock. Another thought might be to have him cutting down the trees prior to interdicting barges to minimize the time actually building the bridge.

Don.