n7axw wrote:Hi James,
We know from LAMA that Ahlverez is marching toward Thesmar down the Ft. Sandfish road. Eventually to reach Thesmar, he has to cut west. As of the beginning of his retreat, he does not know that Rychtyr has been defeated and forced up the river by Hanth. So Thesmar becomes a logical place for him to reunite with Rychtyr and replenish his army from the supply chain coming up the Seridan to supply Rychtyr, and gaining the numbers to defend himself with Rychtyr's rested and well supplied army.
However, the cavalry he has ranging as much as 50 miles in front of him scout Thesmar and discover that Rychtyr is gone and that there are allied supply barges headng up the Seridan, implying Rychtyr's defeat and retreat.
So Ahlverez has to decide. What's he to do? You would have him trying to skirt Hanth to get to Evyrtyn when Hanth who is pressing Rychtyr already has a minimum 250 mile head start. And that is from Thesmar, not from wherever Ahlverez happens to be. Given the ragged state of Ahlverez's army at this point, that simply not going to happen. That option isn't there.
Ahlverez really only has one option. He skirts the forts that are held as lightly as possible because Hanth needs as many men as possible to deal with Rychtyr. Those forts are probably strong enough to prevent an assault by Ahlverez but not strong enough to come out and meet him in the open.
He arrives at the Seridan and finds a spot with enough timber to build his bridge, crosses it and goes home to Dohlar by the shortest possible march.
The only real hope for the allies of catching him is if they have a force in hot pursuit. If they do, they catch him before he gets to the Seridan or pin him to the river. Indeed, they catch him regardless of what he tries to do. In that case it's all over. If they don't, Ahlverez gets away. Hanth, even if he had people to spare for the job which he don't, is too far away to intervene.
Don
Hi Don,
I am afraid Ed Thomas is right. We don’t know. We know that Ahlverez turned west after clearing the southern lobe of the Kyplynger. We don’t know where Malys is. We don’t know whether any of the couriers that were searching for Ahlverez to warn him about Hanth’s movements found him.
If he was found by a courier, then his resupply changes from joining Rychtyr at Thesmar to crossing the Seridahn, and marching clear to Sairhalik. The alternative is heading north to join Rychtyr at Evrytyn. The number of extra miles depends on when he was found by a courier.
Hanth doesn’t have to deploy forces to pin Ahlverez to the river. All Hanth has to do is deny Ahlverez a river crossing and in good time Duke Eastshare and Earl High Mount will arrive to settle the Ahlverez problem.
The only reason that I promoted joining Rychtyr at Evrytyn is because BGV either assumes it or he doesn’t speculate in print about some other course of action for Ahlverez. Check out Thirsk’s speculation. He doesn’t consider warning Ahlverez about Rychtyr retreating from Thesmar. His first speculation is warning Ahlverez that Hanth has taken Cheryk, and then Trevyr. That wouldn’t matter if Thirsk thought that Ahlverez would cross the river just north of Thesmar.
These are mighty thin tea leaves to be prognosticating on.
I will add this reason that is based on what I think of Ahlverez's character. If Ahlverez crosses the river and heads for Dohlar, then he is retreating entirely from the field of battle, and leaving his countrymen unsupported. If Ahlverez joins Rychtyr, then the Dohlar army has a greater chance to be successful in a fighting retreat.
James