HFQ Official Snippet #19 (I think)

JRM wrote:

n7axw wrote:Yeah, I remember what you said about going to Evyrtyn. If you can see a way of getting Ahlverez there without being interdicted by Hanth, I will agree with you. But I don't think you can.

Don

Hi Don

We know that Hanth has taken Somyr on the west side of the Seridahn, Cheryk on the east side of the Seridahn, and Trevyr on the Seridahn. We know that Captain Halcom Bahrns knows of another river barricade five miles north of his location, and that he doesn’t expect to be able to cut Rychtyr off from retreating to Evyrtyn. We know that Hanth coordinated an attack with Delthak’s advance. Summary, most of Hanth’s forces are south of Evrytyn, fighting their way up the Seridahn.

If Ahlverez can go north and stay to the east of Hanth’s forces he can cut back west ahead of Hanth’s advance and join Rychtyr. All of Ahlverez’s options require mobility, and speed of execution to avoid being caught in a tactically vulnerable position.

James

The fun thing/problem with all of these discussions about what Ahlverez is going to/can do is we know nothing useful. We know Ahlverez made it halfway to Thesmar which puts him in the middle of a void on the map. We know he's now 50 miles east of Malys which is great but no one has a clue where Malys is. We don't know if DE/HM are moving down the two roads running to Cheryk, or just running patrols down them, or are completely ignoring them. We don't know if A's troops are down to eating shoe leather and grass yet. My guess is that when RFC reveals the fate of A and his army, we're all gonna slap our foreheads and say,"Why didn't I thinka that?!"

JRM wrote:

n7axw wrote:Yeah, I remember what you said about going to Evyrtyn. If you can see a way of getting Ahlverez there without being interdicted by Hanth, I will agree with you. But I don't think you can.

Don

Hi Don

We know that Hanth has taken Somyr on the west side of the Seridahn, Cheryk on the east side of the Seridahn, and Trevyr on the Seridahn. We know that Captain Halcom Bahrns knows of another river barricade five miles north of his location, and that he doesn’t expect to be able to cut Rychtyr off from retreating to Evyrtyn. We know that Hanth coordinated an attack with Delthak’s advance. Summary, most of Hanth’s forces are south of Evrytyn, fighting their way up the Seridahn.

If Ahlverez can go north and stay to the east of Hanth’s forces he can cut back west ahead of Hanth’s advance and join Rychtyr. All of Ahlverez’s options require mobility, and speed of execution to avoid being caught in a tactically vulnerable position.

James

Hi James,

We know from LAMA that Ahlverez is marching toward Thesmar down the Ft. Sandfish road. Eventually to reach Thesmar, he has to cut west. As of the beginning of his retreat, he does not know that Rychtyr has been defeated and forced up the river by Hanth. So Thesmar becomes a logical place for him to reunite with Rychtyr and replenish his army from the supply chain coming up the Seridan to supply Rychtyr, and gaining the numbers to defend himself with Rychtyr's rested and well supplied army.

However, the cavalry he has ranging as much as 50 miles in front of him scout Thesmar and discover that Rychtyr is gone and that there are allied supply barges headng up the Seridan, implying Rychtyr's defeat and retreat.

So Ahlverez has to decide. What's he to do? You would have him trying to skirt Hanth to get to Evyrtyn when Hanth who is pressing Rychtyr already has a minimum 250 mile head start. And that is from Thesmar, not from wherever Ahlverez happens to be. Given the ragged state of Ahlverez's army at this point, that simply not going to happen. That option isn't there.

Ahlverez really only has one option. He skirts the forts that are held as lightly as possible because Hanth needs as many men as possible to deal with Rychtyr. Those forts are probably strong enough to prevent an assault by Ahlverez but not strong enough to come out and meet him in the open.

He arrives at the Seridan and finds a spot with enough timber to build his bridge, crosses it and goes home to Dohlar by the shortest possible march.

The only real hope for the allies of catching him is if they have a force in hot pursuit. If they do, they catch him before he gets to the Seridan or pin him to the river. Indeed, they catch him regardless of what he tries to do. In that case it's all over. If they don't, Ahlverez gets away. Hanth, even if he had people to spare for the job which he don't, is too far away to intervene.

Don

n7axw Wrote

If Ahlverez can go north and stay to the east of Hanth’s forces he can cut back west ahead of Hanth’s advance and join Rychtyr. and
The only real hope for the allies of catching him is if they have a force in hot pursuit.

Hang on a second, Ahlverez has limited intel- Merlin has perfect intel-PLUS he knows what Ahlverez is going to do before his (Ahlverez's) troops get the orders to do it.
I really think that there are Imperials waiting for the good general.
AND I have been wrong ...often.

n7axw wrote:Hi James,

We know from LAMA that Ahlverez is marching toward Thesmar down the Ft. Sandfish road. Eventually to reach Thesmar, he has to cut west. As of the beginning of his retreat, he does not know that Rychtyr has been defeated and forced up the river by Hanth. So Thesmar becomes a logical place for him to reunite with Rychtyr and replenish his army from the supply chain coming up the Seridan to supply Rychtyr, and gaining the numbers to defend himself with Rychtyr's rested and well supplied army.

However, the cavalry he has ranging as much as 50 miles in front of him scout Thesmar and discover that Rychtyr is gone and that there are allied supply barges headng up the Seridan, implying Rychtyr's defeat and retreat.

So Ahlverez has to decide. What's he to do? You would have him trying to skirt Hanth to get to Evyrtyn when Hanth who is pressing Rychtyr already has a minimum 250 mile head start. And that is from Thesmar, not from wherever Ahlverez happens to be. Given the ragged state of Ahlverez's army at this point, that simply not going to happen. That option isn't there.

Ahlverez really only has one option. He skirts the forts that are held as lightly as possible because Hanth needs as many men as possible to deal with Rychtyr. Those forts are probably strong enough to prevent an assault by Ahlverez but not strong enough to come out and meet him in the open.

He arrives at the Seridan and finds a spot with enough timber to build his bridge, crosses it and goes home to Dohlar by the shortest possible march.

The only real hope for the allies of catching him is if they have a force in hot pursuit. If they do, they catch him before he gets to the Seridan or pin him to the river. Indeed, they catch him regardless of what he tries to do. In that case it's all over. If they don't, Ahlverez gets away. Hanth, even if he had people to spare for the job which he don't, is too far away to intervene.

Don

Hi Don,

I am afraid Ed Thomas is right. We don’t know. We know that Ahlverez turned west after clearing the southern lobe of the Kyplynger. We don’t know where Malys is. We don’t know whether any of the couriers that were searching for Ahlverez to warn him about Hanth’s movements found him.

If he was found by a courier, then his resupply changes from joining Rychtyr at Thesmar to crossing the Seridahn, and marching clear to Sairhalik. The alternative is heading north to join Rychtyr at Evrytyn. The number of extra miles depends on when he was found by a courier.

Hanth doesn’t have to deploy forces to pin Ahlverez to the river. All Hanth has to do is deny Ahlverez a river crossing and in good time Duke Eastshare and Earl High Mount will arrive to settle the Ahlverez problem.

The only reason that I promoted joining Rychtyr at Evrytyn is because BGV either assumes it or he doesn’t speculate in print about some other course of action for Ahlverez. Check out Thirsk’s speculation. He doesn’t consider warning Ahlverez about Rychtyr retreating from Thesmar. His first speculation is warning Ahlverez that Hanth has taken Cheryk, and then Trevyr. That wouldn’t matter if Thirsk thought that Ahlverez would cross the river just north of Thesmar.

These are mighty thin tea leaves to be prognosticating on.

I will add this reason that is based on what I think of Ahlverez's character. If Ahlverez crosses the river and heads for Dohlar, then he is retreating entirely from the field of battle, and leaving his countrymen unsupported. If Ahlverez joins Rychtyr, then the Dohlar army has a greater chance to be successful in a fighting retreat.

James

JRM wrote:

n7axw wrote:Hi James,

We know from LAMA that Ahlverez is marching toward Thesmar down the Ft. Sandfish road. Eventually to reach Thesmar, he has to cut west. As of the beginning of his retreat, he does not know that Rychtyr has been defeated and forced up the river by Hanth. So Thesmar becomes a logical place for him to reunite with Rychtyr and replenish his army from the supply chain coming up the Seridan to supply Rychtyr, and gaining the numbers to defend himself with Rychtyr's rested and well supplied army.

However, the cavalry he has ranging as much as 50 miles in front of him scout Thesmar and discover that Rychtyr is gone and that there are allied supply barges headng up the Seridan, implying Rychtyr's defeat and retreat.

So Ahlverez has to decide. What's he to do? You would have him trying to skirt Hanth to get to Evyrtyn when Hanth who is pressing Rychtyr already has a minimum 250 mile head start. And that is from Thesmar, not from wherever Ahlverez happens to be. Given the ragged state of Ahlverez's army at this point, that simply not going to happen. That option isn't there.

Ahlverez really only has one option. He skirts the forts that are held as lightly as possible because Hanth needs as many men as possible to deal with Rychtyr. Those forts are probably strong enough to prevent an assault by Ahlverez but not strong enough to come out and meet him in the open.

He arrives at the Seridan and finds a spot with enough timber to build his bridge, crosses it and goes home to Dohlar by the shortest possible march.

The only real hope for the allies of catching him is if they have a force in hot pursuit. If they do, they catch him before he gets to the Seridan or pin him to the river. Indeed, they catch him regardless of what he tries to do. In that case it's all over. If they don't, Ahlverez gets away. Hanth, even if he had people to spare for the job which he don't, is too far away to intervene.

Don

Hi Don,

I am afraid Ed Thomas is right. We don’t know. We know that Ahlverez turned west after clearing the southern lobe of the Kyplynger. We don’t know where Malys is. We don’t know whether any of the couriers that were searching for Ahlverez to warn him about Hanth’s movements found him.

If he was found by a courier, then his resupply changes from joining Rychtyr at Thesmar to crossing the Seridahn, and marching clear to Sairhalik. The alternative is heading north to join Rychtyr at Evrytyn. The number of extra miles depends on when he was found by a courier.

Hanth doesn’t have to deploy forces to pin Ahlverez to the river. All Hanth has to do is deny Ahlverez a river crossing and in good time Duke Eastshare and Earl High Mount will arrive to settle the Ahlverez problem.

The only reason that I promoted joining Rychtyr at Evrytyn is because BGV either assumes it or he doesn’t speculate in print about some other course of action for Ahlverez. Check out Thirsk’s speculation. He doesn’t consider warning Ahlverez about Rychtyr retreating from Thesmar. His first speculation is warning Ahlverez that Hanth has taken Cheryk, and then Trevyr. That wouldn’t matter if Thirsk thought that Ahlverez would cross the river just north of Thesmar.

These are mighty thin tea leaves to be prognosticating on.

I will add this reason that is based on what I think of Ahlverez's character. If Ahlverez crosses the river and heads for Dohlar, then he is retreating entirely from the field of battle, and leaving his countrymen unsupported. If Ahlverez joins Rychtyr, then the Dohlar army has a greater chance to be successful in a fighting retreat.

James

You are certainly right that these are mighty thin tea leaves to be prognosticating on. But that doesn't stop any of us, does it?

Don

I think you may be forgetting that Hanth, like Rychtyr, is concentrated on the _west_ side of the river. Ahlverez isn't at as much risk moving up the east side as you seem to think. OTOH, that also means that all he really needs to do is send a brigade or so [I can't remember if he has any dragoons, but he has lots of mortars] back down the river to oppose any crossing attempt and the Dohlarans go nowhere. Given the condition the Army of Shiloh is in, a reinforced regiment might be enough - I don't think Ahlverez is in shape to force any sort of opposed crossing that low on the river under current conditions. _If_ Ahlverez can get past him on the east bank into Rychtyr's rear he may find a place where his people can survive the crossing and be covered by Rychtyr's forces while they do it - or even find an intact bridge being held by the Army of the Seridahn - but that's probably his only hope. It isn't a faint hope, though, because there may not be any major forces to block him if he can get across the Kharmych road, and a rear-guard action a la Dunkirk would let an unopposed crossing to evacuate much of his force [hmmm... check the maps for someplace named [Dynkyrch...].

n7axw wrote:

JRM wrote:
Hi Don

We know that Hanth has taken Somyr on the west side of the Seridahn, Cheryk on the east side of the Seridahn, and Trevyr on the Seridahn. We know that Captain Halcom Bahrns knows of another river barricade five miles north of his location, and that he doesn’t expect to be able to cut Rychtyr off from retreating to Evyrtyn. We know that Hanth coordinated an attack with Delthak’s advance. Summary, most of Hanth’s forces are south of Evrytyn, fighting their way up the Seridahn.

If Ahlverez can go north and stay to the east of Hanth’s forces he can cut back west ahead of Hanth’s advance and join Rychtyr. All of Ahlverez’s options require mobility, and speed of execution to avoid being caught in a tactically vulnerable position.

James

Hi James,

We know from LAMA that Ahlverez is marching toward Thesmar down the Ft. Sandfish road. Eventually to reach Thesmar, he has to cut west. As of the beginning of his retreat, he does not know that Rychtyr has been defeated and forced up the river by Hanth. So Thesmar becomes a logical place for him to reunite with Rychtyr and replenish his army from the supply chain coming up the Seridan to supply Rychtyr, and gaining the numbers to defend himself with Rychtyr's rested and well supplied army.

However, the cavalry he has ranging as much as 50 miles in front of him scout Thesmar and discover that Rychtyr is gone and that there are allied supply barges headng up the Seridan, implying Rychtyr's defeat and retreat.

So Ahlverez has to decide. What's he to do? You would have him trying to skirt Hanth to get to Evyrtyn when Hanth who is pressing Rychtyr already has a minimum 250 mile head start. And that is from Thesmar, not from wherever Ahlverez happens to be. Given the ragged state of Ahlverez's army at this point, that simply not going to happen. That option isn't there.

Ahlverez really only has one option. He skirts the forts that are held as lightly as possible because Hanth needs as many men as possible to deal with Rychtyr. Those forts are probably strong enough to prevent an assault by Ahlverez but not strong enough to come out and meet him in the open.

He arrives at the Seridan and finds a spot with enough timber to build his bridge, crosses it and goes home to Dohlar by the shortest possible march.

The only real hope for the allies of catching him is if they have a force in hot pursuit. If they do, they catch him before he gets to the Seridan or pin him to the river. Indeed, they catch him regardless of what he tries to do. In that case it's all over. If they don't, Ahlverez gets away. Hanth, even if he had people to spare for the job which he don't, is too far away to intervene.

Don

What it comes down to finally is where Ahlverez is on the map. If he is where I think he is, Evyrtyn is close to 300 miles away. The notion of marching his people that far when they are hungry and low on ammo just doesn't make sense. Even if he could get through to Rychter, he would be more hindrance than help at the moment, especially with reinforcements coming up from Dohlar.

Also, what are DE and EHM doing right now? Are they joining forces with Hanth against Rychtyr who is the more dangerous enemy or are they looking for Ahlverez? If they have joined Hanth, they would have the same difficulty interdicting Ahlverez as Hanth. They would be too far west.

As James points out, this is all on very thin tea leaves. But if I were Ahlverez and managed to get to the Seridahn, I would intercept a dozen or so of Hanth's supply barges, anchor them across the river and cut enough trees to build a platform, using the barges as pontoons and march my people across before anybody could show up to intervene.

I do agree that Ahlvereez is in no shape to force a crossing against opposition.

Anything to what I'm saying? Who knows? Maybe I'm full of hot air. Possibly we'll know more about where Ahlverez is at and his situation with the next snippet.

Don

n7axw wrote:Anything to what I'm saying? Who knows? Maybe I'm full of hot air. Possibly we'll know more about where Ahlverez is at and his situation with the next snippet.

Don

Hi Don,

Our guesses have been recorded, and someone will get to say, "I told you so."

My question is: Is there anything that is hot in South Dakota right now?

James

THe commander of hte enemy forces know there is a charis strong hold to the south, and that their logistics have been comprimised at differing points. SO he might not be as suprised that the charis how taken other locations.

wont the 10000 desnairs cause issues? who will pay and supply them, will they permanently join dohlar or would they be rented? will they be allowed in dohlar or just seen as disposable?

currently ahlverez has good will due to the size of the force he kept intact, but they have limited supplies, stuck in what could be called enemy territory, and more than likely out gunned. that force could easily get slashed if a few things just go wrong.

SYED wrote:THe commander of hte enemy forces know there is a charis strong hold to the south, and that their logistics have been comprimised at differing points. SO he might not be as suprised that the charis how taken other locations.

wont the 10000 desnairs cause issues? who will pay and supply them, will they permanently join dohlar or would they be rented? will they be allowed in dohlar or just seen as disposable?

currently ahlverez has good will due to the size of the force he kept intact, but they have limited supplies, stuck in what could be called enemy territory, and more than likely out gunned. that force could easily get slashed if a few things just go wrong.

The Desnairian troops are honoured allies who will either be assigned detached service with Dohlar by their high command or repatriated , via Salthar Bay if necessary. The Dohlarans will be in a whole pile of trouble with the CoGA if they just abandon 10000 Jihadi troops. Naturally Desnair pays for them, where's the issue?