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The United Kingdom

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Re: The United Kingdom
Post by Michael Riddell   » Thu Feb 26, 2015 3:05 pm

Michael Riddell
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Location: Aberdeen, Scotland, UK.

DDHvi wrote:One point: whatever is done should remember the principle of subsidiarity. This says every difficulty should be handled at the lowest level that can do it. The problem is that too often, you get people running for high office that love to be meddlers.


Bold mine.

There does seem to be a degree of resistance to that concept if it means you get more politicians.

Early in the current Conservative government's term they introduced US-style elected Police Commissioners in England. The idea has not been popular and the turnouts for the elections were abysmally low. The main reason for this can be summed up as "Oh, not another layer of politicians/government!!!".

This sentiment is the primary reason why people in England are less than keen on having their own devolved assembly. They don't want the extra bureaucratic tier.

Mike.
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Gonnae no DAE that!

Why?

Just gonnae NO!
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Re: The United Kingdom
Post by Michael Everett   » Thu Mar 05, 2015 2:34 pm

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If a recent survey carried out by the Tories translates into an accurate representation of how the upcoming election will go, Labour faces near-total wipeout in Scotland with the SNP taking over 50 of their 56 seats.
If this happens, then Labour's only chance to form a government will be to go cap-in-hand to the SNP in the hopes of forming a coalition government and given the SNP's recent policy announcements... the phrase that best fits (and my apologies to those sensitive souls reading this) is "Oh crap!"
The SNP's policies can be described as "Home rule for Scotland and rob those English Bastards blind". While I admit that the previous paraphrase may be slightly exaggerated, it is not nearly as exaggerated as I would have liked. The SNP's demands, if implemented, could easily send the UK into another recession that would make the previous one look like a mild financial hiccup. If we do get a Labour/SNP alliance, then when they finally leave No 10, we will find, once again, a note in the treasury saying "There's no money left. Sorry."
I am not looking forwards to a potential four years of Labour. If Milliband can totally screw the utilities markets while still in opposition, what the heck will he do when in power?
Or more to the point, what will the Unions controlling* Milliband do...

*It was the Unions who gave Ed Milliband victory over his brother in the Labour Party leadership contest, and they have been pressuring Labour to move more and more left-wing into communist/socialist territory ever since. Ed Milliband may not be an actual puppet, but with the unions effectively bankrolling Labour, his chances of remaining in control (assuming he currently is) are virtually non-existent.
~~~~~~

I can't write anywhere near as well as Weber
But I try nonetheless, And even do my own artwork.
(Now on Twitter)and mentioned by RFC!
ACNH Dreams at DA-6594-0940-7995
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Re: The United Kingdom
Post by munroburton   » Thu Mar 05, 2015 5:40 pm

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The Guardian's predictions yesterday suggested that Lab+SNP would fall in that odd gray section of Westminister, created by six Sinn Fein MPs who never take their seats, with 323 seats overall. Enough to survive votes of confidence but not strictly speaking holding a majority.

The SNP have stated a preference for a confidence and supply arrangement, which would avoid the coalition trap effect that's expected to halve the Lib Dems' seats(or worse) in May.

Formal coalition or confidence and supply, that margin is very thin and extremely vulnerable to rebelling MPs. Whether the premiership remains with the incumbent or passes to the challenger, he will have to horse-trade with everyone just to avoid another general election, never mind run the country.

The one possibility the Guardian doesn't mention is a grand coalition of the Labour and Conservative parties. They would command 547 of 650 seats, based on the Guardian's numbers. Rebellious MPs could be rife and the government would still be able to pass legislation - provided the party leaders agree and are able to stave off leadership challengers(even then, the coalition could still endure). I'm not sure this outcome is likely, but hey, five years ago a lot of people wouldn't have believed the Libs would go into coalition with the Tories and then prop them up for a whole five years.

Coupled with an electoral pact not to contest the other's currently held seats, such an arrangement could hang on for the next 10 or 15 years, particularly as it looks like there'll be at least three mid-weight parties fighting over the voters lost by the duopoly.

One of the most inconceivable result of such a grand coalition is who would become the Leader of Her Majesty's Loyal Opposition - the SNP leader in the Commons!

The other possible outlier is some kind of unrefusable offer from the Conservatives to the SNP - Sturgeon would find it mighty hard to explain turning down full home rule minus foreign affairs and defence(the original Devo Max) in exchange for confidence and supply in the rUK, for instance. Various other issues could enter this deal, such as Trident renewal and electoral reform of the UK on a federal level.
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Re: The United Kingdom
Post by Michael Riddell   » Fri Mar 06, 2015 2:53 pm

Michael Riddell
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Considering how venal Scottish Labour is, it couldn't happen to a nicer party!!! :twisted:

As for a Con-Lab coalition.... which of the two parties would disintegrate first? ;)

My main qualm is the lack of a strong opposition to the SNP in Scotland post-Labour. :?:

Mike.
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Gonnae no DAE that!

Why?

Just gonnae NO!
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Re: The United Kingdom
Post by Michael Everett   » Fri Mar 06, 2015 6:44 pm

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Michael Riddell wrote:My main qualm is the lack of a strong opposition to the SNP in Scotland post-Labour.

Labour have for decades treated Scotland as their personal voting preserve, playing on the links between the Tories and the gentry to rouse the Scottish against the Tories, hence why there is only one sitting Tory Scottish MP (the fact that there is even one qualifies as a minor miracle).
However, Labour overplayed their hand and failed to follow through on many of the promises that they made. Coupled with the economic stagnation that excessive government employment/intervention helped to generate, the public came to see Labour as simply using Scotland for the 50+ votes it provided.
The resulting backlash has shattered the foundations of Labour (Scotland), but since the previous emotional bias is highly visible, the Tories are unable to capitalize on the crisis that Labour is facing.
This change of pace has allowed the only other organized political movement in Scotland to flourish. The SNP has reaped the rewards of Labour's arrogant high-handedness and have set themselves firmly in the political arena. By using Scottish Nationalism as their primary weapon, they can easily cast any opposition as being a representative of interests opposed to those of Scotland, effectively neutralizing them before they can gain any political momentum.

In other words, Labour screwed up and gave the SNP the perfect start. All the SNP has to do is keep things running long enough that they can once again move for Scottish Independence. As soon as they get that, they get a near-permanent right to rule.
Watch out, here comes the People's Republic of Scotland!
Again...
~~~~~~

I can't write anywhere near as well as Weber
But I try nonetheless, And even do my own artwork.
(Now on Twitter)and mentioned by RFC!
ACNH Dreams at DA-6594-0940-7995
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Re: The United Kingdom
Post by Michael Riddell   » Sun Mar 08, 2015 9:27 pm

Michael Riddell
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Location: Aberdeen, Scotland, UK.

If there is one thing that the London based media have omitted to notice, is that the SNP manages to be "all things to all men (and women)".

They've never asked themselves why a party they regard as a bunch of socialists can command support in small "c" conservative rural areas as well as predominantly left wing urban ones.

Why?

Easy, the party's history.

I've already alluded to a fundamental divide in the party that a ferocious internal discipline keeps a lid on. The SNP formed from two parties back in the 1930's:

The centre-right Scottish Party

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Scottish_Party

...and the centre-left National Party of Scotland:

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/National_Party_of_Scotland

In addition, when the Scottish Unionist Party merged with the English Conservative Party, many former Unionist's joined the SNP.

That schism between the "moderates" (the right wing) and the "radicals" (the left) is still there. For now the quest for independence unites both halves. If independence is achieved, it is very likely that the SNP will split into it's component wings, generating a traditional left and right two party structure.

There are plenty of conservatives in Scotland, but the vote is split along Unionist and Nationalist lines.

Mike.
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Gonnae no DAE that!

Why?

Just gonnae NO!
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Re: The United Kingdom
Post by biochem   » Mon Mar 09, 2015 9:40 am

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Labour have for decades treated Scotland as their personal voting preserve, playing on the links between the Tories and the gentry to rouse the Scottish against the Tories, hence why there is only one sitting Tory Scottish MP (the fact that there is even one qualifies as a minor miracle).

However, Labour overplayed their hand and failed to follow through on many of the promises that they made. Coupled with the economic stagnation that excessive government employment/intervention helped to generate, the public came to see Labour as simply using Scotland for the 50+ votes it provided.


This reminds me a bit of the Tea Party situation in the USA. Whether or not one agrees with Tea Party policies, one clear effect has been that Republican politicians in formerly safe seats who have been ignoring their voters are paying attention to them for the first time in years. Labor seems like it is learning the same lesson in Scotland. In the short term they are badly damaged but if they learn the same lesson the Republicans have and start paying attention to their voters, they can regain some of their lost ground.

I tend to think that these sorts of shakeups are good in the long term. Politicians of all stripes have a bad habit of forgetting the voters. This is the only way they can be reminded.
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Re: The United Kingdom
Post by munroburton   » Wed Mar 11, 2015 9:26 am

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biochem wrote:
Labour have for decades treated Scotland as their personal voting preserve, playing on the links between the Tories and the gentry to rouse the Scottish against the Tories, hence why there is only one sitting Tory Scottish MP (the fact that there is even one qualifies as a minor miracle).

However, Labour overplayed their hand and failed to follow through on many of the promises that they made. Coupled with the economic stagnation that excessive government employment/intervention helped to generate, the public came to see Labour as simply using Scotland for the 50+ votes it provided.


This reminds me a bit of the Tea Party situation in the USA. Whether or not one agrees with Tea Party policies, one clear effect has been that Republican politicians in formerly safe seats who have been ignoring their voters are paying attention to them for the first time in years. Labor seems like it is learning the same lesson in Scotland. In the short term they are badly damaged but if they learn the same lesson the Republicans have and start paying attention to their voters, they can regain some of their lost ground.

I tend to think that these sorts of shakeups are good in the long term. Politicians of all stripes have a bad habit of forgetting the voters. This is the only way they can be reminded.


Eh. I don't think so - unlike the Tea Party movement, the SNP has been around since 1934. They've also been the party of government for seven years in Scotland and thus have an established track record. The SNP was also the second largest party elected when the Scottish Parliament was re-established. It has always occupied the number one or number two spot there, as has Labour.

The closest UK analogue to the Tea Party is probably UKIP, which so far has only performed well electorally in the European Parliament - which is a bit of irony, given their primary objective being an exit from the European Union - through a combination of proportional representation and lower overall turnout.

Much of the reason for the SNP's historical lack of success in Westminister elections has to do with the dominance of Labour and the Conservatives and even the Lib Dems. At the last election, the Lib Dems alone took 57 seats nationally - one more than Scotland has. The one before that, they got 62. Ever since the industrial build-down of the 80s, the Scots have been voting against a Tory government. That isn't quite the same thing as voting for a Labour government, however, especially one which had to triangulate towards the Conservative position to win in 1997.
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Re: The United Kingdom
Post by Michael Riddell   » Mon Mar 16, 2015 10:01 am

Michael Riddell
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Location: Aberdeen, Scotland, UK.

Interesting:

http://www.heraldscotland.com/politics/scottish-politics/poll-most-people-in-uk-say-scotland-will-leave-it-one-day.120641849

http://www.aog.ed.ac.uk/__data/assets/pdf_file/0018/171108/Briefing_-_Public_Preferences_and_the_Process_of_Constitutional_Change.pdf

"Researchers at the University of Edinburgh said 69% of people in Scotland believed there would be a split, while 59% of those surveyed in England, 54% in Wales and 59% in Northern Ireland thought that Scotland would eventually leave the UK.

The findings were from a survey of more than 7,000 voters across Britain."

Is the end of the United Kingdom nigh?

Mike.
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Gonnae no DAE that!

Why?

Just gonnae NO!
---------------------
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Re: The United Kingdom
Post by Michael Riddell   » Tue Mar 31, 2015 9:25 am

Michael Riddell
Captain (Junior Grade)

Posts: 352
Joined: Sat Nov 03, 2012 3:10 pm
Location: Aberdeen, Scotland, UK.

Well, that's the official campaigning for the General Election started.

Prime Minister Cameron went to Buckingham Palace yesterday to ask Her Majesty's permission to dissolve parliament. Naturally, it's been granted and now the various parties are setting out their election manifestos.

Mike.
---------------------
Gonnae no DAE that!

Why?

Just gonnae NO!
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