HFQ Official Snippet #19 (I think)

Peter2 wrote:

Keith_w wrote: quote="Peter2" quote="Keith_w" quote="Peter2"]I'd just like to float one point: so far, the ICA and allies have been advancing over country where the bulk of the populace, or what remains of it, support them. What happens when they start to invade countries where most of the civilians believe the invaders are heretics?

I'm no expert, but I cannot think of an instance where an invading army has successfully occupied and held a significant amount of territory against an actively hostile indigenous population. There remains the possibility that the excesses of the Inquisition have alienated a large enough number of people to enable toleration (which may well be sufficient, given time (see Corisande)), but that's by no means a given.

The classic example is the Peninsular War (1807-1814). The English history books teach that Wellington won the campaign with the assistance of the Spanish people. The Spanish history books teach that the Spanish people threw off the yoke of the invaders with the assistance of the British armies. I believe that neither force would have worked without the other, but the Spanish version is probably more accurate./quote

For sure, and that's why the Spanish were in charge and not Wellington... ooops, yes he was. You will also please be so kind as to note that the Portuguese were in that battle as well. quote

Absolutely yes. Wellington's Portuguese Corps, led by Marshal Beresford and Major General Hamilton, was a very effective part of his army. But it was a part of his army, and not an independent force. And if you want to go into more detail, I believe that the Light Division had some attached Spanish forces for at least part of the war./quote

And the Portuguese were very effective. I was not suggesting that the Spanish were not involved, just that their contribution was not quite what you were suggesting they thought it was. Certainly the guerrilla war tied up many French troops which might otherwise have been used against the combined forces, but if it hadn't been for British troops and, quite possibly more importantly, British money, the French would have had free rein over the entire peninsula.

I agree to some extent, but there was constant low-level warfare against the French by Spanish irregulars during the whole war — a sentry here, a patrol there, a convoy elsewhere, and so on. There is a small article in Wikipedia about guerrilla warfare during the Peninsular War, which mentions the Battle of Arlabán, where about 1600 French were ambushed successfully by 3-4000 guerrillas. Furthermore, there is reference to French losses to guerrillas in both Arthur Bryant's and Elizabeth Longford's military histories of the Duke of Wellington ("The Great Duke" and "Wellington: The Years of the Sword" respectively).

I still suspect that in the long term (possibly very long term), the Spanish resistance would have made the French occupation of Spain insupportably costly even without the British etc. armies, whereas I doubt that the British would have been able to beat the French if they had had to operate in the presence of a hostile indigenous population.

All quite true, however, we aren't here to debate the peninsula wars, but to enjoy a discussion of the possible future of the Safehold series.

This is getting to be a very interesting discussion. I'm feeling the need to stick a couple oars in and pose a few questions.

First, at the risk of suffering numerous stones and arrows from a group of folks who are very knowledgeable about firearms, I think far too many folks are over-valuing the importance of the rifle. I know we've seen all those amazing computations about how many bullets can be sent downrange in 47 seconds (and the numbers are impressive) but I'm feeling this crying need to point out to all the rifle-lovers that artillery is the biggest killer on the battlefield. The new breechloading pieces, the mobile angle-guns, the mortars with a great range of fusing capabilities will be the decisive factor in the battles ahead. I don't know if the new more powerful brown powder has made it down to field guns and mortars yet, but if it has, artillery becomes even more effective. The COGA advisors have experienced ICA high angle fire and can give their MHOG charges a small idea of what to expect. The rapid rate-of-fire from breech loading pieces will give the devastating impression of many more guns, as well as killing more people faster.

The MHOG will have to move along canal lines. Their logistic requirements prohibit their moving cross-country, especially with the need to feed all those cavalry horses. If anyone chooses to argue that point, please jump in with a description of how you're gonna move all their logistic requirements when the COGA has never quite managed it before. I'll give you that the Dohlarans came close to meeting their troops needs but they didn't have to feed as many horses as MHOG logisticians will have to. Being restricted to Canals gives the ICA (Merlin) the benefit of limiting the terrain to be examined to determine where we will fight the MHOG.

The MHOG will fight in mass formations because they do not have a sufficient number of ncos and junior officers trained and accustomed to exercising the level of independent command required in open-order formations. A regimental column makes a lovely slow moving target. The troops in this formation can expect to be under artillery and mortar fire from the time they are observed until they shoot their leaders and head to the rear. And let's not forget the impact land mines have on mass formations.

Terrain will play a big part here and unfortunately, we know virtually nothing about the terrain in this part of Safehold. Our maps seem to indicate it's farly open country. DE was able to prevent Kaitswyrth from using his superior numbers to envelop his positions by using the terrain. Hopefully Merlin will be able to identify a sufficient number of “safe” positions and Ahbrahim will be able to get this information to ICA commanders. Envelopment may not be a death sentence but I don't know how this can be avoided. Comments from any of the professional soldiers here in the forum would be appreciated on this topic.

I'm wondering if the best strategy may be to simply never “fort up” by relying on our mobility away from the canals. RFC's strategy here will be very interesting to see.

A large portion of the MHOG is cavalry. How will it be used? Will they be used as eyes and ears or will they be used as offensive raiders. Or, as both. We don't know how much of the ICA's success against cavalry has been incorporated into the AOG military mind.

The MHOG may well not have as high of a percentage of calvary as you think, especially given reputation the Harchongian nobles have for having a love affair with horses.

My impression is that the vast majority of the MHOG is made up of peasants gathered in by press gangs, unlike the Desnairians who upon the Temple's insistance sent about 60,000 infantry to out of about 175,000 men. So yes, there will be lots of calvary, but not percentage wise compared with infantry.

There is no question but what canals will make the logistics easier. But Safehold, particularly on West Haven into Siddarmark has high quality roads. With Temple actually providing competent service, one or more of the MHOG armies could find itself supplied by wagon down one of those roads. At any rate, I don't think we can assume the canal is an absolute necessity in all circumstances

n7axw wrote:The MHOG may well not have as high of a percentage of calvary as you think, especially given reputation the Harchongian nobles have for having a love affair with horses.

My impression is that the vast majority of the MHOG is made up of peasants gathered in by press gangs, unlike the Desnairians who upon the Temple's insistance sent about 60,000 infantry to out of about 175,000 men. So yes, there will be lots of calvary, but not percentage wise compared with infantry.

There is no question but what canals will make the logistics easier. But Safehold, particularly on West Haven into Siddarmark has high quality roads. With Temple actually providing competent service, one or more of the MHOG armies could find itself supplied by wagon down one of those roads. At any rate, I don't think we can assume the canal is an absolute necessity in all circumstances

Don,
You're right about the number of cavalry. I went back to the MHOG chapter in LAMA and did some arithmetic.
“almost seventy percent of the regular army was still mounted. The reformers had, however, built up a solid core of over one hundred thousand well-trained, well-armed, well-armored heavy infantry, supported by thirty thousand bowmen and arbalesteers and a tiny handful of matchlock-armed musketeers. The IHA’s true striking power, however , continued to reside in the highly mobile horse archers who composed nearly half its total manpower.”

“the entire Imperial Harchongese Army had numbered less than five hundred thousand men, horse and foot, with no field artillery at all, at the beginning of the Schism.”

They’d gone from a strength of four hundred seventy-one thousand to one of over one million and three hundred thousand in less than four months,

Weber, David (2014-02-18). Like a Mighty Army (Safehold) (p. 493). Tom Doherty Associates. Kindle Edition.

70% x 470,000 = 329,000 mounted
45% x 470,000 = 211,500 horse archers
117,500 other mounted troops
829,000 conscripts
The 100,000 trained pikemen is interesting. This would be an excellent source for junior officers and ncos for the conscript units. MHOG might not be as bad as we've been thinking.

My thinking on them being canal bound was based on the massive number of dragons and freight wagons they'd need to move on the roads. I'm not aware of anything in last year's campaigns that would indicate they have such a surplus available. Where's Lyonheart when ya need 'im! He could probably even tell us how many spare wagon wheels they'd need to do it!

EdThomas wrote:

n7axw wrote:The MHOG may well not have as high of a percentage of calvary as you think, especially given reputation the Harchongian nobles have for having a love affair with horses.

My impression is that the vast majority of the MHOG is made up of peasants gathered in by press gangs, unlike the Desnairians who upon the Temple's insistance sent about 60,000 infantry to out of about 175,000 men. So yes, there will be lots of calvary, but not percentage wise compared with infantry.

There is no question but what canals will make the logistics easier. But Safehold, particularly on West Haven into Siddarmark has high quality roads. With Temple actually providing competent service, one or more of the MHOG armies could find itself supplied by wagon down one of those roads. At any rate, I don't think we can assume the canal is an absolute necessity in all circumstances

Don,
You're right about the number of cavalry. I went back to the MHOG chapter in LAMA and did some arithmetic.
“almost seventy percent of the regular army was still mounted. The reformers had, however, built up a solid core of over one hundred thousand well-trained, well-armed, well-armored heavy infantry, supported by thirty thousand bowmen and arbalesteers and a tiny handful of matchlock-armed musketeers. The IHA’s true striking power, however , continued to reside in the highly mobile horse archers who composed nearly half its total manpower.”

“the entire Imperial Harchongese Army had numbered less than five hundred thousand men, horse and foot, with no field artillery at all, at the beginning of the Schism.”

They’d gone from a strength of four hundred seventy-one thousand to one of over one million and three hundred thousand in less than four months,

Weber, David (2014-02-18). Like a Mighty Army (Safehold) (p. 493). Tom Doherty Associates. Kindle Edition.

70% x 470,000 = 329,000 mounted
45% x 470,000 = 211,500 horse archers
117,500 other mounted troops
829,000 conscripts
The 100,000 trained pikemen is interesting. This would be an excellent source for junior officers and ncos for the conscript units. MHOG might not be as bad as we've been thinking.

My thinking on them being canal bound was based on the massive number of dragons and freight wagons they'd need to move on the roads. I'm not aware of anything in last year's campaigns that would indicate they have such a surplus available. Where's Lyonheart when ya need 'im! He could probably even tell us how many spare wagon wheels they'd need to do it!

Hi EdThomas,

My comment has the following assumptions.

First the MHOG is going to be broken up in at least three, possibly four armies. At least two of those armies can go via canal; the one confronting BGV and the one confronting Symkyns who is facing Kaitswryth on the Daivyn. The other one headed toward Dohlar will likely be by road.

Secondly, there is textev for the main roads, at least, being very high quality which would mean that transport by wagon would be much more feasible.

Thirdly, the quartermaster service would be run by competent church bureaucrats. The supply disaster the AOS found itself in prior to having their supply lines cut was created by the sheer incompetence of the Desnairians who obviously failed to plan adequately for the provisioning of their army. There is no reason to believe that Duchairn's people can't do a better job for the MHOG...at least until the supply lines are cut.

Your comment about pikemen and ncos is well taken. Where I would expect competence issues to arise would be in the upper echalons of the officer corp.

Yeah, Lyonheart does a nice job of laying his stuff out. He does a lot of work I don't have patience for. I miss him when he is not around. I do better with conceptual stuff than with stats.

Don

n7axw wrote:

EdThomas wrote: [SNIP] My thinking on them being canal bound was based on the massive number of dragons and freight wagons they'd need to move on the roads. I'm not aware of anything in last year's campaigns that would indicate they have such a surplus available. Where's Lyonheart when ya need 'im! He could probably even tell us how many spare wagon wheels they'd need to do it!

[SNIP]
First the MHOG is going to be broken up in at least three, possibly four armies. At least two of those armies can go via canal; the one confronting BGV and the one confronting Symkyns who is facing Kaitswryth on the Daivyn. The other one headed toward Dohlar will likely be by road.

Secondly, there is textev for the main roads, at least, being very high quality which would mean that transport by wagon would be much more feasible.

I support the considerations by EdThomas. There are no indications the CoGA would mobilize the massive number of wagons, draft animals, and drivers that are needed for moving significant parts of the Harchongese (or other Units along the roads.) Neither Kaitswyrth nor Wyrshym have gone cross-country so far. And for both it would've been a solution saving their troops.

Consequently, the bulk of the mighty host will move via canals only, and that (and the Charisian control of the Bay of Bess) will preclude a significant column into Dohlar. (Going there would be a strategic mistake by Maigwair anyways.)

Now, there need to be subdivisions of the MHOG, true, but they will still go with the Langhorne canal and then the Hildermoss. The interesting question will be how much independence Maigwair grants individual columns of the MHOG. His problem is of course that each column has to be commanded by senior (literally) and incompetent (by corollary) Harchongese officers. And Maigwar hasn't got high-ranking CoGA to spare that could assume command. If he were to leave a MHOG army to its own commanding officers, we're bound to see a repetition of Harless and the AoJ. Even Maigwair will know that. The only way he can keep strategic and especially tactical command is by assigning the Harchongese units firmly to the highest-ranking CoGA commanders. That, and the limitation in canals for movements, will shape the deployment of the MHOG.

Incidentally, if Maigwair would trust the Harchongese commanders, if he could coordinate wide-ranging troop movements, and if Duchairn could supply the logistics, then having multiple attack column would challenge the Allies more than anything else. Because then, the Allies were faced with threats of strategic envelopment if they push too far. But unfortunately for Maigwair, he can't.

And given these restrictions on Maigwair, we should get the setup for major battles where ICA artillery and firing rate will prove to be decisive. And then, hell's foundations quiver - as far as the CoGA is concerned .

anwi wrote:Consequently, the bulk of the mighty host will move via canals only, ...

Actually, I believe the Mighty Host will move along canals, but only their supplies will move on the canals.

If I recall Duchair's comments correctly, the reason the Mighty Host is where it is is due to the availability of canals and tow beasts -- or lack thereof during winter conditions and due to damage caused by the Great Canal Raid.

Weird Harold wrote:

anwi wrote:Consequently, the bulk of the mighty host will move via canals only, ...

Actually, I believe the Mighty Host will move along canals, but only their supplies will move on the canals.

If I recall Duchairn's comments correctly, the reason the Mighty Host is where it is is due to the availability of canals and tow beasts -- or lack thereof during winter conditions and due to damage caused by the Great Canal Raid.

You guys might be right. However as I hear what's being said, that lack of availability has to do more with the disruption of existing arrangements than it does the lack of possibility of doing it a different way. Then too, if the canals go where you need to go, obviously you use the canal. In my previous post I noted that two of the three armies I was visualizing would be using the canals. There might not even be a road where they need to go.

However IIRC, the way to Dohlar is going to be by road. There no other way that I can see on the map to get there from where the MHOG is at. As for the wagons, I would presume that coming up with those would happen off stage unless it impacts the story line.

Bu then again, this is all conjecture. As for how the story is told, we'll see...

Don

EdThomas wrote:Don,
You're right about the number of cavalry. I went back to the MHOG chapter in LAMA and did some arithmetic.
“almost seventy percent of the regular army was still mounted. The reformers had, however, built up a solid core of over one hundred thousand well-trained, well-armed, well-armored heavy infantry, supported by thirty thousand bowmen and arbalesteers and a tiny handful of matchlock-armed musketeers. The IHA’s true striking power, however , continued to reside in the highly mobile horse archers who composed nearly half its total manpower.”

“the entire Imperial Harchongese Army had numbered less than five hundred thousand men, horse and foot, with no field artillery at all, at the beginning of the Schism.”

They’d gone from a strength of four hundred seventy-one thousand to one of over one million and three hundred thousand in less than four months,

Weber, David (2014-02-18). Like a Mighty Army (Safehold) (p. 493). Tom Doherty Associates. Kindle Edition.

70% x 470,000 = 329,000 mounted
45% x 470,000 = 211,500 horse archers
117,500 other mounted troops
829,000 conscripts
The 100,000 trained pikemen is interesting. This would be an excellent source for junior officers and ncos for the conscript units. MHOG might not be as bad as we've been thinking.

Those horse archers are intriguing. Given that they would be very well trained and experienced, they'd be able to move overland at fair speed and harass Charisian/Siddarmark formations (or supply columns) at range. A very good horse archer is only barely getting superceded by the current rifles in wide service.

Whether or not those troops would be willing to do good cavalry service that way is another issue, alas.

Given what the AoG advisers can communicate, I think dispersed formations among the rifle-equipped infantry really may be the order of the day. Even though the Host will be strapped for confident, knowledgeable and experienced NCO's and junior officers to lead those groups, artillery and rifle fire leave them no good choice. (And higher up, they have to worry about senile commanders.) Packing men up to keep them under great central control while they die by the hundreds is not better than spreading them out under the control of non-coms working out what they are doing by theory and on-the-job. Neither is entirely palatable, of course, and the second goes against tradition, but at least it allows those non-coms and junior officers maybe to live and have their troops live long enough to shoot back and learn better.

While Clyntahn adores Harchong's orthodoxy, I doubt he's committed to geriatric command and may not get in the way of any maneuvers Duchairn and Magwair may sponsor to make sure that the very old, very senior, very hidebound officers are kept in places where they are either junior to an experienced AoG officer and/or having the actual work done by someone younger and more professional. Just how far they can go with that sort of shuffling is an open question. Some terribly senior sorts may have to get themselves and a lot of their men killed in old-fashioned charges to clear the command structure up top.

The mounted troops that aren't horse archers - classic heavy cavalry, I assume? - are not likely to do much good. Hopefully they can be re-trained as dragoons, or at least broken up into special purpose forces on strange occasions where a cavalry charge again has a point. But they're also, happily, a small portion of the new, triple-size Harchongese army.

n7axw wrote:Hi EdThomas,

My comment has the following assumptions.

First the MHOG is going to be broken up in at least three, possibly four armies. At least two of those armies can go via canal; the one confronting BGV and the one confronting Symkyns who is facing Kaitswryth on the Daivyn. The other one headed toward Dohlar will likely be by road.

Secondly, there is textev for the main roads, at least, being very high quality which would mean that transport by wagon would be much more feasible.

Thirdly, the quartermaster service would be run by competent church bureaucrats. The supply disaster the AOS found itself in prior to having their supply lines cut was created by the sheer incompetence of the Desnairians who obviously failed to plan adequately for the provisioning of their army. There is no reason to believe that Duchairn's people can't do a better job for the MHOG...at least until the supply lines are cut.

Your comment about pikemen and ncos is well taken. Where I would expect competence issues to arise would be in the upper echalons of the officer corp.

Yeah, Lyonheart does a nice job of laying his stuff out. He does a lot of work I don't have patience for. I miss him when he is not around. I do better with conceptual stuff than with stats.

Don

Don,
I had to laugh when I read your reply. You're looking at the glass half full and I'm looking at it as half empty! You may be more correct than I here.
One of the biggest problem with using the canals is that everything has to move all the way up the Langhorne before they can get anything south.
I had a vague recollection there'd been a discussion several months ago about getting the MHOG to Dairnyth. So I did a little research and it turns out last Septemberish, Lyonheart proposed one Army move down the Bedard and Sabana then walk to Dairnyth ( 800 miles ) on the network of coastal roads that is probably there but just not on the map. Their supplies would move along with them on coastal shipping, galleons if they could find them. I liked the idea then (least I think I did ) and think I still do. An 800 mile road march will go along way to shaking that army down, especially at the company level.
So, if there are towns where we know they're incredibly likely to be, why wouldn't there be roads connecting these towns we don't see on the map. So if my ego ends up with a little bruise, I'll just have to suck it up and soldier on.
I've been thinking about all those ncos and junior officers they're gonna pull out of the pike force and they're not happy thoughts. I'm shifting to the view that MHOG's senior commanders will be a greater problem than I'd thought previously. Mass formations and limited COGA artillery are still on top of the list but not as far ahead of other problems as I'd thought.

Ed