HFQ Official Snippet #19 (I think)

Weird Harold wrote:

n7axw wrote:Just looking at the map, it seems to me that the allies are too spread out and still have too many other challenges to execute your strategy successfully before the Harchonese begin to move. Kaiswryth and Wyrshym need to be dealt with for one thing. Then too, Hanth and DE still need to finish off or contain Dohlar.

The key is Guarnak.

As long as the CoGA controls Guarnak, they have the inside position on Heretic Forces in Glacierheart, Old Province, and Northland. As soon as BGV takes Guarnak, the blocking forces in Hildermoss/Green Cove Trace, The Syhlmann Gap, and Northland are effectively flanked and have to retreat or die where they stand.

If I recall the timing correctly, BGV should own Guarnak before "mud season" in early to mid april and the Harchongese can't begin consolidating until eraly May, when Duchairn expects the canal to be operational again.

Once BGV holds Guarnak, the Heretic forces will be able to consolidate before the Harchongese do, as BGV is reinforced and resupplied for the spring and summer campaigns.

Keith_w wrote:

Peter2 wrote: quote="Keith_w" quote="Peter2"]I'd just like to float one point: so far, the ICA and allies have been advancing over country where the bulk of the populace, or what remains of it, support them. What happens when they start to invade countries where most of the civilians believe the invaders are heretics?

I'm no expert, but I cannot think of an instance where an invading army has successfully occupied and held a significant amount of territory against an actively hostile indigenous population. There remains the possibility that the excesses of the Inquisition have alienated a large enough number of people to enable toleration (which may well be sufficient, given time (see Corisande)), but that's by no means a given.

The classic example is the Peninsular War (1807-1814). The English history books teach that Wellington won the campaign with the assistance of the Spanish people. The Spanish history books teach that the Spanish people threw off the yoke of the invaders with the assistance of the British armies. I believe that neither force would have worked without the other, but the Spanish version is probably more accurate./quote

For sure, and that's why the Spanish were in charge and not Wellington... ooops, yes he was. You will also please be so kind as to note that the Portuguese were in that battle as well. quote

Absolutely yes. Wellington's Portuguese Corps, led by Marshal Beresford and Major General Hamilton, was a very effective part of his army. But it was a part of his army, and not an independent force. And if you want to go into more detail, I believe that the Light Division had some attached Spanish forces for at least part of the war.

And the Portuguese were very effective. I was not suggesting that the Spanish were not involved, just that their contribution was not quite what you were suggesting they thought it was. Certainly the guerrilla war tied up many French troops which might otherwise have been used against the combined forces, but if it hadn't been for British troops and, quite possibly more importantly, British money, the French would have had free rein over the entire peninsula.

phillies wrote:
The discussion I thought I recalled from the text seemed to view Guarnak as a high bar that was not likely to be reached. On the other hand Charis has faced a certain amount of bad weather; perhaps the weather will be favorable (very cold spring) for once.

phillies wrote:The discussion I thought I recalled from the text seemed to view Guarnak as a high bar that was not likely to be reached. On the other hand Charis has faced a certain amount of bad weather; perhaps the weather will be favorable (very cold spring) for once.

n7axw wrote:If were looking for a successful occupation of a hostile population by an invader, consider the situation in Scotland following Colloden Moor..... It was kinda rough on the locals for a while and I bet that for a certain percentage of Scots, the English still aren't their favorite people.

BUT

recently, when the Scots had the opportunity to regain their independence, they declined. I read a Scottish history recently...Interesting.

Don

n7axw wrote:
I did a bit of research on this and concluded that Lyonheart is probably right. Armies have building bridges since antiquity in our timeline. There is no reason to believe that is not also true for Safehold. Ahlverez probably has engineers with ability to do that, maybe pontoon bridges rather than rafts lashed together.

Wouldn't it be a hoot if Ahlverez got his bridge built and Delthak shows up to crash the party during the crossing?

Don

Eastshare had had no option but to send his own mounted troops to deal with the Desnairian cavalry— which, fortunately, had found itself under heavy attack before it got around to wrecking the canal— rather than dispatching them in pursuit of Ahlverez. By the time the mounted Charisians could swing back south, Ahlverez was halfway to Thesmar.

but whether Ahlverez could avoid Hanth and reach Evrytyn was quite another matter.

“The heretics’ve driven General Rychtyr almost all the way back to Evyrtyn,” he continued. “I don’t know what his losses were at Cheryk and Trevyr, but it doesn’t sound good. And Ahlverez is probably going to lose a lot of whatever he managed to pull out of the Kyplyngyr. I don’t see how anyone could’ve gotten a message to him yet to warn him Rychtyr’s lost Cheryk, much less Trevyr, so he’s probably marching straight towards Hanth right this minute. And we’ve lost touch with everything east of Syrk on the Saint Alyk, as well.” He shook his head and puffed out his cheeks. “Frankly, I’ll be astonished if we get as much as a third of Ahlverez’s troops back, and I wouldn’t count on any of his artillery making it out.”

Weird Harold wrote:

phillies wrote:The discussion I thought I recalled from the text seemed to view Guarnak as a high bar that was not likely to be reached. On the other hand Charis has faced a certain amount of bad weather; perhaps the weather will be favorable (very cold spring) for once.

Guarnak is doable even if the winter breaks a bit early. It is going further than Guarnak -- five forks, lake city, etc -- that is improbable for arctic troops. BGV has to re-equip after taking Guarnak, and he's up a brown creek if he doesn't.

JRM wrote:

n7axw wrote:
I did a bit of research on this and concluded that Lyonheart is probably right. Armies have building bridges since antiquity in our timeline. There is no reason to believe that is not also true for Safehold. Ahlverez probably has engineers with ability to do that, maybe pontoon bridges rather than rafts lashed together.

Wouldn't it be a hoot if Ahlverez got his bridge built and Delthak shows up to crash the party during the crossing?

Don

A couple of thoughts on Ahlverez and crossing the Seridahn.

If Ahlverez tries to use an existing bridge, all Hanth has to do is maintain a battery using canister to keep the bridge cleared. If the battery can’t be maintained, the bridge can always be destroyed.

If Ahlverez tries to build a pontoon bridge and/or ferries, then the question is can he get enough forces across the river to establish control of the west side bridge head before Hanth’s forces counter attack and destroy his bridge, and/or ferries.

Keep in mind EOC doctrine for scout/snipers. This is the description when Alverez army broke contact with EOC forces:

Eastshare had had no option but to send his own mounted troops to deal with the Desnairian cavalry— which, fortunately, had found itself under heavy attack before it got around to wrecking the canal— rather than dispatching them in pursuit of Ahlverez. By the time the mounted Charisians could swing back south, Ahlverez was halfway to Thesmar.

Can you really believe that neither Eastshare or High Mount wouldn’t have assigned scout/snipers to keep track of Ahlverez, until they could “swing back south”? If Dohlar has found out about the Army of Shiloh’s defeat, can you imagine that the EOC has been unable pass that information to Hanth, or that Hanth will not use scout/snipers to locate Ahlverez’s approaching forces?

DGV’s thoughts on Alverez is summarized as:

but whether Ahlverez could avoid Hanth and reach Evrytyn was quite another matter.

Earl Thirsk’s thoughts on Alverez is summarized as:

“The heretics’ve driven General Rychtyr almost all the way back to Evyrtyn,” he continued. “I don’t know what his losses were at Cheryk and Trevyr, but it doesn’t sound good. And Ahlverez is probably going to lose a lot of whatever he managed to pull out of the Kyplyngyr. I don’t see how anyone could’ve gotten a message to him yet to warn him Rychtyr’s lost Cheryk, much less Trevyr, so he’s probably marching straight towards Hanth right this minute. And we’ve lost touch with everything east of Syrk on the Saint Alyk, as well.” He shook his head and puffed out his cheeks. “Frankly, I’ll be astonished if we get as much as a third of Ahlverez’s troops back, and I wouldn’t count on any of his artillery making it out.”

Ahlverez's best chance of crossing the Seridahn is at Evrytyn. Any other crossing is a gamble.

James