Weird Harold wrote:For all those worried about the Harchongese moving into/through Dohlar and/or the threat from Dohlar if the MH is attacked first:
1: The Harchongese are strung out in manageable sized winter encampments. Attacking Dohlar first gives them time to consolidate into a "Mighty Host" instead of "a string of underfed, under-armed, detachments."
2: The Harchongese are en route to reinforce Guarnak and push the heretics back into Siddermark, not to backtrack into Dohlar to deal with lesser heretic forces in the south.
3: The Harchongese can't begin to consolidate until the canal locks are repaired, sometime around the beginning of April. They have to be dealt with before then or as soon as possible because defeating them in detail is going to be much easier than defeating a consolidated and re-armed "Mighty Host."
4: Dohlar is now or soon will be cut-off and irrelevant to the main war effort. The Harchongese are the main war effort -- or at least sitting firmly astride the land route to the main war effort.
The Harchongese probably can't consolidate into one force period. There is no way at all for them to manage an army of over a million men either tactically or logistically with current limitations. As, I believe, it was Clauswitz pointed out (or Sun Tzu-I don't remember), the only numbers that really count are the ones you can actually bring to bear in an engagement.
If I am right about this, they have to split up. I would anticipate either three 400,000 armies or four 300,000 armies directed at what the G-4 regards the primary threats. That would mean directed at BGV in the north, Sympkyns who is currently facing Kaitswryth and one toward Dohlar to confront Hanth and, probably DE.
I think that the Harchongians are going to be in a world of hurt. IIRC, they have only about 600,000 rifles with most of the rest being archers, arbalests and rock throwers. The COGA has improved its artillery situation somewhat, but is still going to be outgunned by superior allied artillery. I don't remember how many of those rifles will be the St. Klymans, but I do remember that the percentage was not high. Their mobility is going to be ponderous and slow at best. And it's not at all clear that they have competent combat commanders to plan their ops.
Don