HFQ Official Snippet #19 (I think)

PeterZ wrote:

jmseeley wrote:The consensus strategy for Dohlar seems to be (in summary):

1 - Eliminate their ability to project power into Siddarmark. (Pretty much done)
2 - Eliminate their ability to threaten Alliance forces. (In progress but needs the KH VIIs to close the deal)
3 - Effectively isolate Dohlar to minimize Church influence. (Ditto)
4 - Use the fleet & army raids to put enough pressure on Dohlar to force a political decision to reach an accommodation with the Alliance.

It's comparable to what happened with Emerald and Tarot: Use enough force to drive the political process. Harder to do in this case, of course: a lot more blood has been spilled. But if it works then it leaves Alliance forces intact and free to deal with the main Church forces.

jms

The key difference for Dohlar compared to Corisande or even Emerald is the immediacy of the alternate threat the EoC faces. Dohlar is in trouble now and the GHoGatA (GH for short) might get completely shredded within 6 months. If Dohlar holds out hoping to avoid direct ICA attention and the GH walks into a meat grinder, Dohlar is SOL. Siddermark will spend the time to thoroughly restructure Dohlar so that they can't project force for a generation at least. The best deal Dohlar is likely to see will come from a prompt negotiated peace.

I agree. That's where part 3 of the strategy comes into play. I don't think it's realistic for Dohlar to negotiate until the lines of communication with the Church are cut. Until that's done they're between a rock and a hard place. I'm thinking about how careful the king of Tarot had to be, and he had the advantage of being on an island. I also think that pro-Church sentiment among the general population is a lot stronger in Dohlar, and it will take a fair bit of damage courtesy of the ICA and ICN to counter that. Until then, any real negotiation might trigger an uprising even without the Inquisition pushing the matter.

jms

DOhlar could stop the harchong force potentially going to dohlar, as their fleet is likly the only shipping around that could transport them properly.
There will apparently be conflict on who gets men and gear, the navy or army? We know that thorast want to screw over thirsk. Imagine the choas cause if they attempt to fill out navy and army numbers, simply by bolstering their numbers with harchong serf. THe simply fact they are not trained, so a huge number of untrained members might be worse than no new additions.

Keith_w wrote:

Peter2 wrote:I'd just like to float one point: so far, the ICA and allies have been advancing over country where the bulk of the populace, or what remains of it, support them. What happens when they start to invade countries where most of the civilians believe the invaders are heretics?

I'm no expert, but I cannot think of an instance where an invading army has successfully occupied and held a significant amount of territory against an actively hostile indigenous population. There remains the possibility that the excesses of the Inquisition have alienated a large enough number of people to enable toleration (which may well be sufficient, given time (see Corisande)), but that's by no means a given.

The classic example is the Peninsular War (1807-1814). The English history books teach that Wellington won the campaign with the assistance of the Spanish people. The Spanish history books teach that the Spanish people threw off the yoke of the invaders with the assistance of the British armies. I believe that neither force would have worked without the other, but the Spanish version is probably more accurate.

For sure, and that's why the Spanish were in charge and not Wellington... ooops, yes he was. You will also please be so kind as to note that the Portuguese were in that battle as well.

Absolutely yes. Wellington's Portuguese Corps, led by Marshal Beresford and Major General Hamilton, was a very effective part of his army. But it was a part of his army, and not an independent force. And if you want to go into more detail, I believe that the Light Division had some attached Spanish forces for at least part of the war.

Peter2 wrote: quote="Keith_w" quote="Peter2"]I'd just like to float one point: so far, the ICA and allies have been advancing over country where the bulk of the populace, or what remains of it, support them. What happens when they start to invade countries where most of the civilians believe the invaders are heretics?

I'm no expert, but I cannot think of an instance where an invading army has successfully occupied and held a significant amount of territory against an actively hostile indigenous population. There remains the possibility that the excesses of the Inquisition have alienated a large enough number of people to enable toleration (which may well be sufficient, given time (see Corisande)), but that's by no means a given.

The classic example is the Peninsular War (1807-1814). The English history books teach that Wellington won the campaign with the assistance of the Spanish people. The Spanish history books teach that the Spanish people threw off the yoke of the invaders with the assistance of the British armies. I believe that neither force would have worked without the other, but the Spanish version is probably more accurate./quote

For sure, and that's why the Spanish were in charge and not Wellington... ooops, yes he was. You will also please be so kind as to note that the Portuguese were in that battle as well. quote

Absolutely yes. Wellington's Portuguese Corps, led by Marshal Beresford and Major General Hamilton, was a very effective part of his army. But it was a part of his army, and not an independent force. And if you want to go into more detail, I believe that the Light Division had some attached Spanish forces for at least part of the war.

And the Portuguese were very effective. I was not suggesting that the Spanish were not involved, just that their contribution was not quite what you were suggesting they thought it was. Certainly the guerrilla war tied up many French troops which might otherwise have been used against the combined forces, but if it hadn't been for British troops and, quite possibly more importantly, British money, the French would have had free rein over the entire peninsula.

THe MHOG in Dohlar! Time for some map study. Textev puts the MHOG along the Langhorne canal. THere are two water routes south from the Langhorne.
The simplest is the Sabana River at the Canal's western end. This would be fine if the Navy of God and its associates, could move several hundred thousand, or so, across the Gulf of Tanshar. This is not likely to happen so the prospects for an amphibious invasion by the MHOG are not strong.
The other water route south is a rather complicated voyage that requires the MHOGs be moved to the eastern end of the canal at Lake City. Lake City would allow the troops to be divided and sent forward by water. Any contingent aimed at Dohlar is going to end up moving down the Fairmyn River which means Dairnyth.
If any MHOGs get into Dohlar it would seem to be over a lot of dead ICA bodies.

You may perhaps need to bone up on the Peninsular War. As far as I can discover, Wellington was not in command of any Spanish forces until well into 1813, and even then only a rather small proportion of them. I don't think that even all the Spanish troops at Vittoria were under his command. So, no, Wellington was not in charge. In fact, probably 2/3 of the fighting happened with not a Brit in sight.

Keith_w wrote:
For sure, and that's why the Spanish were in charge and not Wellington... ooops, yes he was. You will also please be so kind as to note that the Portuguese were in that battle as well.

[SNIP] I happen to think that Dohlar is the weaker of the two threats and thus the one that needs to be dealt with first.
[SNIP]
I am not talking about occupying Dohlar. I am talking about getting in, dispersing the RDA and getting back out as soon as possible. The object is to render them unable to perform offensive operations long enough to deal with the Harchongians.
[/quote]

Why bother?
First, what's still in South March you want to protect? From my POV, it's not a lot. You only need to control the major transport routes into South March. Fortifying some key points into Shiloh (Fort Tairys) and Cliff Peak (Brahnselyk, Ft. Saint Klair) and reconquering Fort Darymahn should result in any CoGA troops reaching South March finding themselves stranded in an area without food - it should already be largely depopulated. Garrisoning those points would be left to the SRA.
Then, you keep control of Thesmar, Yairdyn, Syrk and possibly Evrytyn and Riverfork with well dug-in troops. Importantly, you need to control the Seridahn and the St. Alyk river using those river monitors. In that case, Dohlar is logistically unable to be more than a nuisance east of the Seridahn.
Hanth should be able to implement that "fortification" with limited numbers of frontline troops and artillery pieces. Support by SRA units would be easy and effective.
Then, even if Dohlar wanted to attack, they would be hard pressed to make any progress while incurring excessive casualties. More importantly, the Desnairian can't attack as well. So, both are sidelined and you can concentrate most frontline ICA troops against the "mighty host".
As stated above by EdThomas, the Harchongians reaching Dohlar is not that likely. However, a counterattack by Desnairian troops while the ICA is busy attacking into Dohlar would be possible and inconvenient.
So, I expect the major action in HFQ to be in the north.

anwi wrote:[SNIP] I happen to think that Dohlar is the weaker of the two threats and thus the one that needs to be dealt with first.
[SNIP]
I am not talking about occupying Dohlar. I am talking about getting in, dispersing the RDA and getting back out as soon as possible. The object is to render them unable to perform offensive operations long enough to deal with the Harchongians.

Why bother?
First, what's still in South March you want to protect? From my POV, it's not a lot. You only need to control the major transport routes into South March. Fortifying some key points into Shiloh (Fort Tairys) and Cliff Peak (Brahnselyk, Ft. Saint Klair) and reconquering Fort Darymahn should result in any CoGA troops reaching South March finding themselves stranded in an area without food - it should already be largely depopulated. Garrisoning those points would be left to the SRA.
Then, you keep control of Thesmar, Yairdyn, Syrk and possibly Evrytyn and Riverfork with well dug-in troops. Importantly, you need to control the Seridahn and the St. Alyk river using those river monitors. In that case, Dohlar is logistically unable to be more than a nuisance east of the Seridahn.
Hanth should be able to implement that "fortification" with limited numbers of frontline troops and artillery pieces. Support by SRA units would be easy and effective.
Then, even if Dohlar wanted to attack, they would be hard pressed to make any progress while incurring excessive casualties. More importantly, the Desnairian can't attack as well. So, both are sidelined and you can concentrate most frontline ICA troops against the "mighty host".
As stated above by EdThomas, the Harchongians reaching Dohlar is not that likely. However, a counterattack by Desnairian troops while the ICA is busy attacking into Dohlar would be possible and inconvenient.
So, I expect the major action in HFQ to be in the north.[/quote]

Your premise here does make some sense. However I believe that Desnsair just lost their main army, or at least what army they had armed with modern weapons. However you would be right to point out that the Harchongians could move in from the rear while the allies were preoccupied with Dohlar, especially if the timeframe were to be extended.

If Dohlar can be contained with light forces, I agree that it makes sense to go after the Harchongians and let the navy do the heavy lifting with Dohlar once the Haarahlds and the ironclads are in place.

Don

I'm not even sure the Sabana would work.

Unless RFC was just waving his hand around without being terribly accurate, there must be a reason for the Bedard Canal to run north _beside_ the Sabana for as far as it does - and I suspect it's that the river isn't navigable for some distance below the junction with the canal. Possibly not for the remainder of its course, in fact, although that is not at all certain.

The water route from the Bedard, where, BTW, we know that a section of the MH is now camped, probably involves going back to the west and down through Tanshar. If we assume that the unnamed river in Tanshar is fully navigable, and I see no reason not to, you could, presumably embark troops in Tanshar somewhere and move them across to Dohlar. Trouble is, you then have to wonder why that wasn't done to begin with, at least for a significant portion of the Host. If it were I, there'd be at least 400,000 of them in Dairnyth by now.

Unless, of course, I couldn't get them there because the shipping just isn't available, either because of Manthyr's activities or because it was never there to begin with.

The other possibility is that it _is_ the Mighty Host, and the clowns in Zion couldn't bring themselves to envision using it as anything but the steamroller they thought it to be [yes, I know they don't know what a steamroller is. You get the point!]. In which case, I can't see them changing that now - there's no reason to do it that wasn't there from the very beginning. Moving that many men on one axis has never made logistic sense and didn't really make much strategic sense. Maigwair has already shown that he's good enough to see that, too. If he didn't split them into several forces to begin with there must be either political or practical reasons for it. The practical reasons are still there; any political reasons are hardly going to be affected by a few incompetent cowards getting their clocks wiped.

EdThomas wrote:THe MHOG in Dohlar! Time for some map study. Textev puts the MHOG along the Langhorne canal. THere are two water routes south from the Langhorne.
The simplest is the Sabana River at the Canal's western end. This would be fine if the Navy of God and its associates, could move several hundred thousand, or so, across the Gulf of Tanshar. This is not likely to happen so the prospects for an amphibious invasion by the MHOG are not strong.
The other water route south is a rather complicated voyage that requires the MHOGs be moved to the eastern end of the canal at Lake City. Lake City would allow the troops to be divided and sent forward by water. Any contingent aimed at Dohlar is going to end up moving down the Fairmyn River which means Dairnyth.
If any MHOGs get into Dohlar it would seem to be over a lot of deag ICA bodies.

For all those worried about the Harchongese moving into/through Dohlar and/or the threat from Dohlar if the MH is attacked first:

1: The Harchongese are strung out in manageable sized winter encampments. Attacking Dohlar first gives them time to consolidate into a "Mighty Host" instead of "a string of underfed, under-armed, detachments."

2: The Harchongese are en route to reinforce Guarnak and push the heretics back into Siddermark, not to backtrack into Dohlar to deal with lesser heretic forces in the south.

3: The Harchongese can't begin to consolidate until the canal locks are repaired, sometime around the beginning of April. They have to be dealt with before then or as soon as possible because defeating them in detail is going to be much easier than defeating a consolidated and re-armed "Mighty Host."

4: Dohlar is now or soon will be cut-off and irrelevant to the main war effort. The Harchongese are the main war effort -- or at least sitting firmly astride the land route to the main war effort.