HFQ Official Snippet #19 (I think)

anwi wrote:(In fact, the Dohlarans would probably decline an "invasion" of Harchongians troops into their territory unless the ICA troops threaten Sairhalik (e.g.). And I don't think that this invasion is sensible at this point in time, i.e. for HFQ.)

And here's the crux of the matter. How would Dohlar "decline" an invasion of a million Harchongian troops? Especially with a good chunk of its army already defeated - about 2/3 of all who went with Rainos Ahlverez? And the remaining 1/3 struggling to get back, which is an uncertain thing.

My point is, Clyntahn & Co will not let Dohlar become neutral, not if they can help it. In fact, they will punish anyone in Dohlar who tries to push in that direction.

And as long as the Harchongian contingent is live and kicking, the COGA will have the force to do that punishing with, and to enforce whatever decrees they want in Dohlar. And Dohlarans know that.

Not to mention that some number of Dohlarans, those who believe in the COGA, will obey them and not king Rahnyld if it ever comes to that. Dohlar is not Charis.

Now, I did assume that the majority of the MHoGatA will go through Dohlar. Mostly because of the need to supply them along the way. I guess they can go through the Border Kingdoms, but supplying an army of that size will be... a challenge, to say the least. And by now, there is not enough food (or anything else) in western Siddarmark for an army of that size to forage in any way, including robbing the peasants along the way.

Furthermore, Charis simply cannot afford to leave something like Dohlaran Navy and what remains of its army free to recover, rebuild and become a threat. They have to make sure Dohlar is not going to be a threat again, when they go for the final phase - Temple Lands and Zion.

n7axw wrote:If you are Hanth and DE, if you have 400,000 Harchongians coming at you, you don't want the Dohlarans coming up your backside. You can't count on the navy to get there in time to distract the Dohlarans so you have to seek battle with the RDA and knock it out of the fight before the Harchongians can intervene. That will probably mean invading Dohlar.

True, but you can stand that argument on its head. If you have 400k Harchongians coming at you (via Dairnyth? Don't we deny the Bay of Bess to the CoGA?), and you are still fighting in Dohlar, you are in dire straits as well. Because then, you don't have the troops to stop the Harchongians from wreaking havoc in your rear areas.
So, how likely is it that Dohlar's army crumbles? In case of an invasion, I´d give small odds to that. Specifically, Dohlar will go for levee en masse to fight a Siddarmarkian (!) invasion. And fighting against 1 Mio Dohlarans defending their country, even if only 20% carry rifles, is no quick business. So, there's a fair chance you get the Harchongians simultaneously, in which case you risk actually losing the invading army instead of merely ground.
As a side remark, if ICA and SRA invade Dohlar (with the intent of conquest), this justifies allegations by the Go4, which gave justification to the initial Actions by the Go4 against Charis, namely the "lust for domination" over other countries. It should still be politically unwise to go into that area.
However, if Dohlar looses a good chunk of its army and most of its navy, it might be reluctant to keep attacking. It might even favourable to a (however informal) armistice. In that case, you only have the Harchongians to worry about.
(And in that case, Dohlaran commanders might find themselves hammered out of their chairs by Rayno's agents )

Aethor wrote:And here's the crux of the matter. How would Dohlar "decline" an invasion of a million Harchongian troops?
[SNIP]
Now, I did assume that the majority of the MHoGatA will go through Dohlar. Mostly because of the need to supply them along the way. I guess they can go through the Border Kingdoms, but supplying an army of that size will be... a challenge, to say the least. And by now, there is not enough food (or anything else) in western Siddarmark for an army of that size to forage in any way, including robbing the peasants along the way.

Even now, the Go4 has to respect the sensibilities of sovereign countries. Getting the Desnairians through Silkiah required strong intervention by the CoGA. The same goes for Dohlar - unless their are faced with conquest.

But in any case: Why should the majority of the MHoGatA show up in Dohlar. Even if they were successful in reconquering Ervytyn and invade into the South March, what is there that is really critical to Siddarmark? You only get 1 Mio soldiers into an area where you have a hard time supplying them.
Now, the really important goals are those pursued by Wyrshym and Kaitswyrth - unsuccessfully so far. I would suppose that Maigwair wants the MHoGatA to support both, the one in an attack on Glacierheart (and the coal for Siddarmark's factories), the other for a direct drive into Old Province (if need be via the Northland Gap. Maigwair's (and Clyntahn's) rationale would be that with 600k Harchongese in addition, and a core of CoGA units, both armies can simply swamp (or outflank) enemy positions. And that's not totally unrealistic unless Howsmyn introduces the machine gun .

I'd just like to float one point: so far, the ICA and allies have been advancing over country where the bulk of the populace, or what remains of it, support them. What happens when they start to invade countries where most of the civilians believe the invaders are heretics?

I'm no expert, but I cannot think of an instance where an invading army has successfully occupied and held a significant amount of territory against an actively hostile indigenous population. There remains the possibility that the excesses of the Inquisition have alienated a large enough number of people to enable toleration (which may well be sufficient, given time (see Corisande)), but that's by no means a given.

The classic example is the Peninsular War (1807-1814). The English history books teach that Wellington won the campaign with the assistance of the Spanish people. The Spanish history books teach that the Spanish people threw off the yoke of the invaders with the assistance of the British armies. I believe that neither force would have worked without the other, but the Spanish version is probably more accurate.

anwi wrote:However, if Dohlar looses a good chunk of its army and most of its navy, it might be reluctant to keep attacking. It might even favourable to a (however informal) armistice. In that case, you only have the Harchongians to worry about.
(And in that case, Dohlaran commanders might find themselves hammered out of their chairs by Rayno's agents )

If it loses even more of its army and its navy, Dohlar pretty much cannot attack. It may not be able to deny use of its roads and canals to Church-allied combatants, but it could still complicate that (as any sovereign nation might) - particularly when it has the bargaining chip of being one of the Church's most reliable sources of weapons and ideas.

Arranging a sub rosa "understanding" with Charis would be compelling at that point: neither of them wants Dohlar invaded and occupied. Siddarmark may feel a bit more belligerent that way - it's nearby and has a lot more army-bodies. But Siddarmark is busy right now retaining its occupation of itself, so it's not likely looking for more occupation prospects it can avoid.

Rayno may have agents that can assassinate a lot of people, including some important and respectable ones. But by now, Rayno cannot count on subordinates not stepping up and doing all that he fears Thirsk or Ahlvarez may do. (Or maybe should fear Maik would do - if he knew that Maik isn't quite the Inquisitor they take him for.) If their respected and admired leaders get gunned down for considering the unthinkable - and held back less for fear of their lives than lingering respect for Church authority - then those subordinates will lose that respect and likely figure that their own lives are likely to be cut short by the Church as long as the Church has guns on them. If you have to fear for your life in any case, you've little reason left to comply.

Peter2 wrote:I'd just like to float one point: so far, the ICA and allies have been advancing over country where the bulk of the populace, or what remains of it, support them. What happens when they start to invade countries where most of the civilians believe the invaders are heretics?

I'm no expert, but I cannot think of an instance where an invading army has successfully occupied and held a significant amount of territory against an actively hostile indigenous population. There remains the possibility that the excesses of the Inquisition have alienated a large enough number of people to enable toleration (which may well be sufficient, given time (see Corisande)), but that's by no means a given.

The classic example is the Peninsular War (1807-1814). The English history books teach that Wellington won the campaign with the assistance of the Spanish people. The Spanish history books teach that the Spanish people threw off the yoke of the invaders with the assistance of the British armies. I believe that neither force would have worked without the other, but the Spanish version is probably more accurate.

For sure, and that's why the Spanish were in charge and not Wellington... ooops, yes he was. You will also please be so kind as to note that the Portuguese were in that battle as well.

anwi wrote:

n7axw wrote:If you are Hanth and DE, if you have 400,000 Harchongians coming at you, you don't want the Dohlarans coming up your backside. You can't count on the navy to get there in time to distract the Dohlarans so you have to seek battle with the RDA and knock it out of the fight before the Harchongians can intervene. That will probably mean invading Dohlar.

True, but you can stand that argument on its head. If you have 400k Harchongians coming at you (via Dairnyth? Don't we deny the Bay of Bess to the CoGA?), and you are still fighting in Dohlar, you are in dire straits as well. Because then, you don't have the troops to stop the Harchongians from wreaking havoc in your rear areas.
So, how likely is it that Dohlar's army crumbles? In case of an invasion, I´d give small odds to that. Specifically, Dohlar will go for levee en masse to fight a Siddarmarkian (!) invasion. And fighting against 1 Mio Dohlarans defending their country, even if only 20% carry rifles, is no quick business. So, there's a fair chance you get the Harchongians simultaneously, in which case you risk actually losing the invading army instead of merely ground.
As a side remark, if ICA and SRA invade Dohlar (with the intent of conquest), this justifies allegations by the Go4, which gave justification to the initial Actions by the Go4 against Charis, namely the "lust for domination" over other countries. It should still be politically unwise to go into that area.
However, if Dohlar looses a good chunk of its army and most of its navy, it might be reluctant to keep attacking. It might even favourable to a (however informal) armistice. In that case, you only have the Harchongians to worry about.
(And in that case, Dohlaran commanders might find themselves hammered out of their chairs by Rayno's agents )

On the naval side, I am all in favor of as much action as soon as possible, but it is plain right now that Charis is very reluctant to enter the Gulf of Dohlar until it has the Haarahlds and the ironclads in place which will be several months yet.

You can stand the argument on its head or heels; the result is the same. I don't see any way to successfully ignore either threat. I happen to think that Dohlar is the weaker of the two threats and thus the one that needs to be dealt with first.

I am not convinced that the hostile country side argument is a particularly good one. In Dohlar, they have a large enough population, but in a very small country. They are not going to come up with 1,000,000 men and 200,000 rifles. Furthermore, the time frame we are referring to doesn't leave any time at all for the kind of mobilization you are talking about even if the weapons were available which they are not. The vast majority of the arms that exist right now are already in the hands of the military and the Dohlarans aren't going to have the rest of their million man levee throwing rocks at the Charisans.

I am not talking about occupying Dohlar. I am talking about getting in, dispersing the RDA and getting back out as soon as possible. The object is to render them unable to perform offensive operations long enough to deal with the Harchongians.

I am a bit less worried about the inquisition than other forum posters. The situation is not conducive to Zion's intervention and I suspect that Dohlar will deal with its own inquisitors when the crunch comes.

Don

If Ahlverez has already lost 20% of his forces in only a few 5-days, then the army must be in pretty bad shape, especially as they were underfed to start with. The whole army must be on the brink of starvation, and it is entirely possible that if he is delayed or he has simply too far to go, the army could disintegrate under him even if he manages to avoid any battles, in just a few more 5-days. Consider the impact of losing 50% of your forces after having fled the battlefield.

Even better - how about having a SNARC leaflet a few camps offering food and shelter to surrendering troops. What kind of effect would that have on moral if the army knows Charisians can simply walk through their camps any time they want as they slowly starve to death?

Aethor wrote:

anwi wrote:(In fact, the Dohlarans would probably decline an "invasion" of Harchongians troops into their territory unless the ICA troops threaten Sairhalik (e.g.). And I don't think that this invasion is sensible at this point in time, i.e. for HFQ.)

And here's the crux of the matter. How would Dohlar "decline" an invasion of a million Harchongian troops? Especially with a good chunk of its army already defeated - about 2/3 of all who went with Rainos Ahlverez? And the remaining 1/3 struggling to get back, which is an uncertain thing.

My point is, Clyntahn & Co will not let Dohlar become neutral, not if they can help it. In fact, they will punish anyone in Dohlar who tries to push in that direction.

And as long as the Harchongian contingent is live and kicking, the COGA will have the force to do that punishing with, and to enforce whatever decrees they want in Dohlar. And Dohlarans know that.

Not to mention that some number of Dohlarans, those who believe in the COGA, will obey them and not king Rahnyld if it ever comes to that. Dohlar is not Charis.

Now, I did assume that the majority of the MHoGatA will go through Dohlar. Mostly because of the need to supply them along the way. I guess they can go through the Border Kingdoms, but supplying an army of that size will be... a challenge, to say the least. And by now, there is not enough food (or anything else) in western Siddarmark for an army of that size to forage in any way, including robbing the peasants along the way.

Furthermore, Charis simply cannot afford to leave something like Dohlaran Navy and what remains of its army free to recover, rebuild and become a threat. They have to make sure Dohlar is not going to be a threat again, when they go for the final phase - Temple Lands and Zion.

The Harchongians are not going to send one million men into Dohlar. Wyrshym and Kaitswryth are going to be taken out. Then all those freed up allied troops would be coming up the Harchongians behind just like I am concerned that they will do that to Hanth and DE if Dohlar is not dealt with as quickly as possible. The Temple will divide its resourses to meet the threats they know about.

Don

Hildum wrote:If Ahlverez has already lost 20% of his forces in only a few 5-days, then the army must be in pretty bad shape, especially as they were underfed to start with. The whole army must be on the brink of starvation, and it is entirely possible that if he is delayed or he has simply too far to go, the army could disintegrate under him even if he manages to avoid any battles, in just a few more 5-days. Consider the impact of losing 50% of your forces after having fled the battlefield.

Even better - how about having a SNARC leaflet a few camps offering food and shelter to surrendering troops. What kind of effect would that have on moral if the army knows Charisians can simply walk through their camps any time they want as they slowly starve to death?

This is pretty good thinking. Hopefully we will know more about this after the next snippet. If Ahlverez manages to cross the Seridan, he probably gets hope. If not, then what you suggest would probably be productive.

Don