Aethor wrote:I don't think that there will be any easy accommodation with Dohlar, for many reasons, including what happened to admiral Sir Gwylym Manthyr.
As long as Dohlar is independent it will be allied to COGA; it has no choice, what with the Temple Lands close by, Desnair too, and Harchong further west. And king Rahnyld, so far, has not experienced any consequences of all the losses in the current war on his own skin; for most rulers (excepting certain rotund prince) things that happen to their underlings don't really have any significance.
The Inner Circle at least knows the story about what happened to Manthyr - that the Dohlarans had no choice in the matter and pushed a lot farther than was safe to
save those prisoners from the Inquisition. Before it comes to counter-atrocities against Dohlar, I think we can count on some such account leaking.
One thing Dohlar has going for it for making some sort of arrangement with Charis is that it's got three senior leaders - Thirsk, Maik, Ahlvarez - who can find their honor with both hands and respect Charisian skill and integrity. Dohlar certainly suffers from a lot of other ministers who aren't really much in touch with anything but politics and money and a king who's a dunderhead. But if continuing the war full-force is put as an option against some sort of accommodation that ends the bloodshed and maintains Dohlaran autonomy and some measure of independence - well, a coup to assure the nicer option is entirely possible. Especially if Charis (Nynian!) can liberate the Church's hostages.
Furthermore, IC Navy could use a good naval base on the south side of the continent (as in, one where the sea doesn't freeze for half of each year) in order to carry supplies and troops, to stop the current Harchong army, and any additional troops that Harchong might send (though Harchong probably won't be able to equip another army... serfs to conscript, they do have that in abundance, but all the weapons and gear to properly equip another million soldiers? probably not).
South Harchong may be able to, but with the Gulf of Dohlar unsafe for Church-allied shipping, it'd have a devil of a time doing anything with that army - except possibly declaring independence of North Harchong....
This is not only for IC troops; RS Army can also use that supply route, Siddar City to Thesmar by ship, then the whole southern theater can be supplied, through Dohlar and southern Border Kingdoms.
And if Charis annexes Dohlar, the next step could be Malansath - conquer then fortify it to the max, and it puts a stop to any further Harchongese ideas in east Haven.
Dohlar is too large to annex - by Charis at least, probably by Siddarmark, and still probably by Charis, Siddarmark, and Silkiah combined. Throw in the whole of Corisande's upcoming army and you may have a deal. But by that point, I'm sure some other way of dealing with Dohlar and freeing up those troops for genuine use elsewhere grows pretty compelling.
Not to mention, it would then give ICA/RSA a perfect staging point for invasions of Temple Lands from the south.
Plenty of islands in the Gulf will do for that. Liberated southern Siddarmark is fine too.