HFQ Official Snippet #19 (I think)

jmseeley wrote:The consensus strategy for Dohlar seems to be (in summary):

1 - Eliminate their ability to project power into Siddarmark. (Pretty much done)
2 - Eliminate their ability to threaten Alliance forces. (In progress but needs the KH VIIs to close the deal)
3 - Effectively isolate Dohlar to minimize Church influence. (Ditto)
4 - Use the fleet & army raids to put enough pressure on Dohlar to force a political decision to reach an accommodation with the Alliance.

It's comparable to what happened with Emerald and Tarot: Use enough force to drive the political process. Harder to do in this case, of course: a lot more blood has been spilled. But if it works then it leaves Alliance forces intact and free to deal with the main Church forces.

jms

The key difference for Dohlar compared to Corisande or even Emerald is the immediacy of the alternate threat the EoC faces. Dohlar is in trouble now and the GHoGatA (GH for short) might get completely shredded within 6 months. If Dohlar holds out hoping to avoid direct ICA attention and the GH walks into a meat grinder, Dohlar is SOL. Siddermark will spend the time to thoroughly restructure Dohlar so that they can't project force for a generation at least. The best deal Dohlar is likely to see will come from a prompt negotiated peace.

The thing that is a bit bothersome about the situation in Dohlar is that Dohlar still has an intact army and command organization which given the opportunity could still do some serious damage. Lyonheart suggested that its numbers have been reduced pretty drasticly and with his normal flare with numbers demonstrated his point. However, between recruiting and activating militias, I think we still have to assume a active force of over a hundred thousand men.

There are some of us here that feel that Dohlar should not be invaded by land, but rather let the navy force the dispersal and the eventual surrender of the Dohlarans by sea. That would be a very attractive scenario except for the timetable. The navy is not going to be able to move into the Gulf of Dohlar until the Harahlds arrive along with the Cities class ironclads. At minimum that is still several months away.

By that time the Harchongians will be stirring and on the march. There has been a lot of conjecture about how they will split up. But I think that it is only prudent to assume that there will be a force that thrusts southeast toward Hanth in an attempt to reopen the way toward Dohlar and probably beyond toward Howard.

If the allies must turn to face the Harchongians with a still intact Dohlaran army in their rear, there is a strong potential for things to become dicey.

To avoid that outcome, Hanth, DE and whoever else might be on hand, has to eject Rychtyr from Evyrtyn, hopefully by the destruction of his force, move down the canal and force a battle with the main Dohlaran army not to invade and occupy the country, but with a goal of dispersing that army and thoroughly disordering its command structure so that they no longer have the capacity for offensive action. Then turn and prepare for the confrontation with Harchong's host.

Don

All of which is why any sensible Dohlaran high command would refuse a set piece battle with ICA invaders but keep delaying and retreating behind a scorched earth policy till the Harchongians started to threaten the ICA's supply lines and rear. Maigwair would be keen on it too; it might be a bit rough on Dohlar in the short term, but it would be good for the overall war.

Randomiser wrote:All of which is why any sensible Dohlaran high command would refuse a set piece battle with ICA invaders but keep delaying and retreating behind a scorched earth policy till the Harchongians started to threaten the ICA's supply lines and rear. Maigwair would be keen on it too; it might be a bit rough on Dohlar in the short term, but it would be good for the overall war.

This discussion seems to be assuming a rational (enlightened?) Inquisition in Dohlar which raises a lot of interesting questions. Is Thirsk's situation less dire? Is the Inquisition leadership thinking about keeping their heads off ICA stakes? Are they assuming the forces coming from the Kyplinger Forest are so powerful as to crush any "stand fast, no retreat" efforts? Are they buying time to get the new weapons into the field, thinking the weapons will level the playing field? Are they talking with Duchairn?

I don't think that there will be any easy accommodation with Dohlar, for many reasons, including what happened to admiral Sir Gwylym Manthyr.

As long as Dohlar is independent it will be allied to COGA; it has no choice, what with the Temple Lands close by, Desnair too, and Harchong further west. And king Rahnyld, so far, has not experienced any consequences of all the losses in the current war on his own skin; for most rulers (excepting certain rotund prince) things that happen to their underlings don't really have any significance.

Furthermore, IC Navy could use a good naval base on the south side of the continent (as in, one where the sea doesn't freeze for half of each year) in order to carry supplies and troops, to stop the current Harchong army, and any additional troops that Harchong might send (though Harchong probably won't be able to equip another army... serfs to conscript, they do have that in abundance, but all the weapons and gear to properly equip another million soldiers? probably not).

This is not only for IC troops; RS Army can also use that supply route, Siddar City to Thesmar by ship, then the whole southern theater can be supplied, through Dohlar and southern Border Kingdoms.

And if Charis annexes Dohlar, the next step could be Malansath - conquer then fortify it to the max, and it puts a stop to any further Harchongese ideas in east Haven.

Not to mention, it would then give ICA/RSA a perfect staging point for invasions of Temple Lands from the south.

Aethor wrote:As long as Dohlar is independent it will be allied to COGA;

This logic is flawed; it's the "they may be dangerous in some future, let's exterminate them all now" type of logic. I don't think, that Merlin would approve this type of strategy; after all, the concurrence is the most effective motor of progress.

lyonheart wrote:Having Rychtyr and Ahlverez both make it back to Dohlar has seemed likely to me since LaMA, albeit in less than at their best.
[SNIP]
Anyone care to make some predictions?

Ahlverez has indeed lost several thousand men so far, though I still expect him to make it across the Seridahn with most of his army.

Lashing long rafts together to form a bridge with timbers to cover the gaps would seem the fastest way to cross quickly in a single night, which seems quite possible once the rafts are made.

As to Rychtyr: He'd only loose his army if he'd screw up in a major way. I - as Bahrns in the last snippet - don't think he will.
As to Ahlverez: rafts for 40k troops plus equipment and provisions, that's a lot of timber. Moreover, I'm not sure we know what the Seridahn is like in terms of width, depth and flow in that area near Thesmar, which would be the supposed area of such a river crossing. Building multiple rafts costs time and will be noticed by ICA and SRA troops - which must at least have that area under surveillance. And then, one or two smaller war galleons should be sufficient to wreak havoc with Ahlverez' nice operation. So, it'd be a risky proposition for him to go for that.
And if he doesn't, he should run into the reinforcements from Eastshare or High Mount (if he doesn't anyways). So, I'm giving him only a small chance of making it with a more than a small part of his troops.

Aethor wrote:I don't think that there will be any easy accommodation with Dohlar, for many reasons, including what happened to admiral Sir Gwylym Manthyr.

As long as Dohlar is independent it will be allied to COGA; it has no choice, what with the Temple Lands close by, Desnair too, and Harchong further west. And king Rahnyld, so far, has not experienced any consequences of all the losses in the current war on his own skin; for most rulers (excepting certain rotund prince) things that happen to their underlings don't really have any significance.

The Inner Circle at least knows the story about what happened to Manthyr - that the Dohlarans had no choice in the matter and pushed a lot farther than was safe to save those prisoners from the Inquisition. Before it comes to counter-atrocities against Dohlar, I think we can count on some such account leaking.

One thing Dohlar has going for it for making some sort of arrangement with Charis is that it's got three senior leaders - Thirsk, Maik, Ahlvarez - who can find their honor with both hands and respect Charisian skill and integrity. Dohlar certainly suffers from a lot of other ministers who aren't really much in touch with anything but politics and money and a king who's a dunderhead. But if continuing the war full-force is put as an option against some sort of accommodation that ends the bloodshed and maintains Dohlaran autonomy and some measure of independence - well, a coup to assure the nicer option is entirely possible. Especially if Charis (Nynian!) can liberate the Church's hostages.

Furthermore, IC Navy could use a good naval base on the south side of the continent (as in, one where the sea doesn't freeze for half of each year) in order to carry supplies and troops, to stop the current Harchong army, and any additional troops that Harchong might send (though Harchong probably won't be able to equip another army... serfs to conscript, they do have that in abundance, but all the weapons and gear to properly equip another million soldiers? probably not).

South Harchong may be able to, but with the Gulf of Dohlar unsafe for Church-allied shipping, it'd have a devil of a time doing anything with that army - except possibly declaring independence of North Harchong....

This is not only for IC troops; RS Army can also use that supply route, Siddar City to Thesmar by ship, then the whole southern theater can be supplied, through Dohlar and southern Border Kingdoms.

And if Charis annexes Dohlar, the next step could be Malansath - conquer then fortify it to the max, and it puts a stop to any further Harchongese ideas in east Haven.

Dohlar is too large to annex - by Charis at least, probably by Siddarmark, and still probably by Charis, Siddarmark, and Silkiah combined. Throw in the whole of Corisande's upcoming army and you may have a deal. But by that point, I'm sure some other way of dealing with Dohlar and freeing up those troops for genuine use elsewhere grows pretty compelling.

Not to mention, it would then give ICA/RSA a perfect staging point for invasions of Temple Lands from the south.

Plenty of islands in the Gulf will do for that. Liberated southern Siddarmark is fine too.

n7axw wrote:There are some of us here that feel that Dohlar should not be invaded by land, but rather let the navy force the dispersal and the eventual surrender of the Dohlarans by sea. That would be a very attractive scenario except for the timetable. The navy is not going to be able to move into the Gulf of Dohlar until the Harahlds arrive along with the Cities class ironclads. At minimum that is still several months away.

By that time the Harchongians will be stirring and on the march. There has been a lot of conjecture about how they will split up. But I think that it is only prudent to assume that there will be a force that thrusts southeast toward Hanth in an attempt to reopen the way toward Dohlar and probably beyond toward Howard.
[SNIP]

Now, that's the thing that's bothering me: The Harchongian army is currently strung out along the Langhorne canal, right? And whatever Maigwair is, he's not stupid. He should intend to use these troops come April (start of his campaign season). In that case, he'll start to move the leading units about February (i.e. right now) up to Lake City, which should be feasible because that canal is intact.
In that case, there's simply no time for Green Valley or Eastshare to get further than Guarnak and Aivahnstyn - and destroy the remaining CoGA troops camping there. But even that is unlikely, because due to numerical superiority, both basically capable military bishops (Wyrshym and Kaitswyrth) should be able to pull off some kind of retreat. And in e.g. April, a large part (whatever could be kept supplied) of the Harchongian army moves down the Hildermoss and potentially the North Daivyn river to meet the ICA and SRA units.
In that scenario, whatever happens near Dohlar is not directly connected to the Harchongians operating from Tarikah and Westmarch province.
(In fact, the Dohlarans would probably decline an "invasion" of Harchongians troops into their territory unless the ICA troops threaten Sairhalik (e.g.). And I don't think that this invasion is sensible at this point in time, i.e. for HFQ.)

anwi wrote:

n7axw wrote:There are some of us here that feel that Dohlar should not be invaded by land, but rather let the navy force the dispersal and the eventual surrender of the Dohlarans by sea. That would be a very attractive scenario except for the timetable. The navy is not going to be able to move into the Gulf of Dohlar until the Harahlds arrive along with the Cities class ironclads. At minimum that is still several months away.

By that time the Harchongians will be stirring and on the march. There has been a lot of conjecture about how they will split up. But I think that it is only prudent to assume that there will be a force that thrusts southeast toward Hanth in an attempt to reopen the way toward Dohlar and probably beyond toward Howard.
[SNIP]

Now, that's the thing that's bothering me: The Harchongian army is currently strung out along the Langhorne canal, right? And whatever Maigwair is, he's not stupid. He should intend to use these troops come April (start of his campaign season). In that case, he'll start to move the leading units about February (i.e. right now) up to Lake City, which should be feasible because that canal is intact.
In that case, there's simply no time for Green Valley or Eastshare to get further than Guarnak and Aivahnstyn - and destroy the remaining CoGA troops camping there. But even that is unlikely, because due to numerical superiority, both basically capable military bishops (Wyrshym and Kaitswyrth) should be able to pull off some kind of retreat. And in e.g. April, a large part (whatever could be kept supplied) of the Harchongian army moves down the Hildermoss and potentially the North Daivyn river to meet the ICA and SRA units.
In that scenario, whatever happens near Dohlar is not directly connected to the Harchongians operating from Tarikah and Westmarch province.
(In fact, the Dohlarans would probably decline an "invasion" of Harchongians troops into their territory unless the ICA troops threaten Sairhalik (e.g.). And I don't think that this invasion is sensible at this point in time, i.e. for HFQ.)

The Harchonians have more than enough troops to do more than one thing at once. That means that they have more than enough people to move toward both Hanth and BGV. In fact they could put together at least three very sizable armies. And they can't effectively utilize a million + men from a tactical or logistics standpoint anyway. It is simply too unwieldy.

If you are Hanth and DE, if you have 400,000 Harchongians coming at you, you don't want the Dohlarans coming up your backside. You can't count on the navy to get there in time to distract the Dohlarans so you have to seek battle with the RDA and knock it out of the fight before the Harchongians can intervene. That will probably mean invading Dohlar.

Dohlar is not so big that it can do scorched earth Russian style effectively. The navy is in a position to take Silkiah which means that supply lines of reasonable length can be arranged.

Don