HFQ Official Snippet #19 (I think)

anwi wrote:

n7axw wrote:First, Ahlverez is not going to Evrytyn, I don't think, at least not once he realizes that Rychtyr is in full retreat with Hanth on his heels, especially with an ironclad clearing the way for Hanth.
[SNIP]
Finally, I was just looking at a map... I suspect that force marching from Roymark to Cheryk is Hanth's reinforcements to beef him up as he pursues Rychtyr between Trevyr and Evyrtyn. I hope so anyway. We have established that Rychtyr is about to be reinforced from Dohlar and that numbers wise, Hanth is badly shorthanded.

I discounted Ahlverez going near Thesmar because of two reasons. First, the vicinity of Thesmar up to Cheryk should be in firm control of (and under surveillance by) the ICA and SRA, which Ahlverez should at least suspect. Second, area around Thesmar is swampy, the river probably rather broad (navigable by blue water ships). Without boats or a solid pioneer company, crossing the river with his command intact is complicated and takes time.
Ahlverez needs a secure bridge or a more shallow part of the river to get free. He has to assume that Rychtyr can provide both. And he has no chance of guessing at the current utter defeat of Rychtyr. Thus, he's heading in the direction of Evrytyn.
With respect to High Mount and Eastshare being stuck in the Kyplyngyr: Doesn't make sense. They were held up from catching Ahlverez because they had to mop up elsewhere, so Ahlverez could break free. But the ICA should be (soon) in control of the major high roads in the direction of Cheryk. Since Ahlverez needs to take the longer route and effectively to go cross-country, there's plenty of opportunity for the ICA to be already there when Ahlverez arrives.
So, it's a bleak situation for Ahlverez. He might be able to escape with a small command group, but not with his current 40k troops.
The bright side of his situation is that, personally, he's beyond Clyntahn's reach.

There is something to what you say. But consider, although the Alliance is in control of the route between Thesmar and Evyrtyn, that does not imply concentrated. In short, should Ahlverez to show up a bit west of Thesmar, even his depleted army can break through simply because Hanth and (hopefully) his reinforcements are concentrated against Rychtyr and are too far away to intervene. His way across the river is to use the tools in his supply train to build log rafts.

You are right to say that Ahlverez's current situation is bleak. I really don't see any other way for him to get back to Dohlar without engaging and my bright idea here is far from assured. Add into that the thought that unless Ahlverez is aware of Rychtyr's defeat, he will assume that Rychtyr is still sitting outside Thesmar containing Hanth. So he is headed there anyway. Evyrtyn is only a logical target for Ahlverez if he can skirt around Hanth's forces which I think is unlikely.

Now... we'll see how RFC works it out!

Don

anwi wrote:Moreover, in case of the "mighty host", a simple defense in depth approach might be better. Just given them two or three lines to attack, suck them in into a prepared position and then encircle them and cut them off. At least, that's what I'd be thinking about. And that's a bit easier if they are coming storming at you, given the likely preferences and fallacies of the "mighty host's" officers - and inquisitors...

Given the relative size of the armies (the mighty host will outnumber the CE forces by, probably, at least 5 to 1), the best strategy for the mighty host would be to pin the CE forces down and encircle them instead. Granted, here, the technological edge, mobility and better leadership of the CE forces will likely preclude that; however, the thought of CE forces encircling the Harchongese seems a bit unlikely.

Now, using natural terrain features and technological advantage to otherwise trap the Harchongese would be vastly preferred (too bad we don't know what those terrain features might be, but finding the right spot means Kaitswyrth and Wyrshym must be defeated relatively quickly first). Or the CE could do what the Mongols did at the Battle of Mohi, which was to: (1) engage King Bela of Hungary's forces in a frontal attack; (2) send a smaller force to ford a river elsewhere and attack Bela in the flank while his forces were already engaged; and (3) leave a small avenue for the panicked soldiers to escape, that was much like a gauntlet, as killing a fleeing enemy is easier than killing a surrounded enemy who's still fighting.

anwi wrote:
Is that really the best approach? It would require very fast and long-distance movements of a lot ICA and SRA troops beyond their own secure lines of communication. For me, that's a rather risky proposition.
I agree that you should get at Guarnak and probably even resume the offensive against Aivahnstyn, but the "mighty host" should reach the frontlines well before the ICA can cover that much ground.
Moreover, in case of the "mighty host", a simple defence in depth approach might be better. Just given them two or three lines to attack, suck them in into a prepared position and then encircle them and cut them off. At least, that's what I'd be thinking about. And that's a bit easier if they are coming storming at you, given the likely preferences and fallacies of the "mighty host's" officers - and inquisitors...

The question is how far West is practical and/or wise?

Guarnak isn't far enough. If Wyrshym discovers BGV has reached Ohlarn Gap he has to pull back to cover Guarnak. When he does, the Arctic trained troops BGV did not take with him (approximately half there are available) will shred those troops moving towards Guarnak. All in all an offensive against the Sylman Gap following news of BGV marching towards Guarnak will crushing. Give Wyrshym's troops a heavy dose of angle guns and mortars. Follow that up with an assault around the left near Malkyr with some arctic troops and then drive home the assault over the frozen lake's left lobe. Once the breach in the CoGA lines is wide enough, the ICA has free movement in Wyrshym's rear. The rest of his line is toast at that point.

Once the Gap is taken, sending supplies through to Guarnak via the Sylmahn Gap is way faster and more efficient then the route BGV took. If timed properly, BGV will get a "message" that Guarnak has fallen and to proceed to Five Forks shortly after clearing Ohrlan Gap. The risk is avoided if BGV delays deciding to head for Guarnak until after Wyrshym loses his Army of the Sylmahn. If Wyrshym survives, BGV continues for Guarnak.

Bottom line is that BGV doesn't have all the Artic forces, only half of them. The remainder will be used soon. Resupply using sleds/sleighs along the Guarnak-Sylmahn Canal will be more efficient than any other route available to BGV. Once Wyrshym's main force is defeated, the ICA forces at Sylmahn Gap is sufficient to take Guarnak withour BGV. That frees BGV to advance as far as practical to create the possibility of a true defense in depth. If he can reach Cat Lizard Lake or Lake City with the Holdermoss and Daivyn Rivers to use as supply routes, he can set up well defended position after another that the GHoGatA has to pound through head on. That assumes they make it past the ironclads patrolling the Hioldermoss and Daivyn.

Come to think of it, why would the GHoGatA even go that far with the ironclads on the river? With Dairnyth taken and the Hildermoss controlled by ICA ironclads, the GHoGatA cannot secure their supply routes. Marching beyond Lake City would be foolish if not suicidal. If they wait until winter, they suffer casualties from the weather. If they wait until summer, the ironclads will block their supply routes.

I hear the arguments people have made about the risks of going as far West as Lake City. I don't see the risk as being beyond mitigation. Between using the Sylmahn forces to punch Wyrshym out and the Sylmahn-Gurnak canal to supply the forward deployed forces, sending BGV West as far as he can make it under cover of cold weather is a good idea.

PeterZ wrote:What should they do, Randomiser?

Good question. First order of business is to secure Dairnyth. That both secures the Alyksberg canal and a port city in the Bay of Bess. Controlling that port city allows a secure route for the ironclads to enter the Gulf of Dohlar. Ironclads in the Northern Gulf means Thirsk's navy can't operate freely with respect to Claw Island as the Northern ironclads can attack many of the Dohlaran port cities behind Thirsk's deployed fleet.

Second order is BGV to move as far West as possible along the CoGA supply route. The further West they meet Mighty Host, the better. The best case has the ICA bottling up the GHoGatA before they clear the Holy Langehorn canal. Achieving this means the concentration camps are freed and the GH doesn't have the supply route to reach deep into Siddermark.

What follows is open to debate.

If it was purely a matter of ICN logistics I'd say that Port Salthar would be a better choice that Dairnyth: Closer to Gorath, shorter transit on the canal/river system, and probably less vulnerable to counterattack. Of course this depends on taking the Salthar Canal intact, either by coordinated surprise attacks or (preferably) Silkiah switching sides.

Dairnyth offers the advantages you pointed out plus cutting Kaitswyrth's main supply route. My main reservation is that until Dohlar is well and truly out of the war it leaves the alliance supply line with a long flank. Dohlar has just gotten a PhD course on the importance of logistics and the effects of attacking supply lines and even with their losses they'll have enough to mount heavy raids. And I'm pretty sure that keeping Kaitswyrth supplied is something that the entire Group of Four would agree is vital, no matter the cost.

jms

PeterZ wrote:The question is how far West is practical and/or wise?

Guarnak isn't far enough.

Guarnak is almost too far for arctic troops. It is going to be the Spring mud season by the time Guarnak is taken.

However, taking Guarnak pulls the plug on three or four passes from Siddarmark opens the possibility af a supply route via Ranshair Bay, so BGV does have to push that far before re-equipping and re-provisioning for the Spring and Summer campaigns.

As for the Harchongese, at last report, they were strung out in bite-size pieces along the supply routes. Pushing west to take on those bite-size pieces before they can consolidate would seem like a good choice, but the Arctic troops have to open the passes and re-equip while the Harchongese are still strung out.

PeterZ wrote:

anwi wrote:
Is that really the best approach? It would require very fast and long-distance movements of a lot ICA and SRA troops beyond their own secure lines of communication. For me, that's a rather risky proposition.
I agree that you should get at Guarnak and probably even resume the offensive against Aivahnstyn, but the "mighty host" should reach the frontlines well before the ICA can cover that much ground.
Moreover, in case of the "mighty host", a simple defence in depth approach might be better. Just given them two or three lines to attack, suck them in into a prepared position and then encircle them and cut them off. At least, that's what I'd be thinking about. And that's a bit easier if they are coming storming at you, given the likely preferences and fallacies of the "mighty host's" officers - and inquisitors...

The question is how far West is practical and/or wise?

Guarnak isn't far enough. If Wyrshym discovers BGV has reached Ohlarn Gap he has to pull back to cover Guarnak. When he does, the Arctic trained troops BGV did not take with him (approximately half there are available) will shred those troops moving towards Guarnak. All in all an offensive against the Sylman Gap following news of BGV marching towards Guarnak will crushing. Give Wyrshym's troops a heavy dose of angle guns and mortars. Follow that up with an assault around the left near Malkyr with some arctic troops and then drive home the assault over the frozen lake's left lobe. Once the breach in the CoGA lines is wide enough, the ICA has free movement in Wyrshym's rear. The rest of his line is toast at that point.

Once the Gap is taken, sending supplies through to Guarnak via the Sylmahn Gap is way faster and more efficient then the route BGV took. If timed properly, BGV will get a "message" that Guarnak has fallen and to proceed to Five Forks shortly after clearing Ohrlan Gap. The risk is avoided if BGV delays deciding to head for Guarnak until after Wyrshym loses his Army of the Sylmahn. If Wyrshym survives, BGV continues for Guarnak.

Bottom line is that BGV doesn't have all the Artic forces, only half of them. The remainder will be used soon. Resupply using sleds/sleighs along the Guarnak-Sylmahn Canal will be more efficient than any other route available to BGV. Once Wyrshym's main force is defeated, the ICA forces at Sylmahn Gap is sufficient to take Guarnak withour BGV. That frees BGV to advance as far as practical to create the possibility of a true defense in depth. If he can reach Cat Lizard Lake or Lake City with the Holdermoss and Daivyn Rivers to use as supply routes, he can set up well defended position after another that the GHoGatA has to pound through head on. That assumes they make it past the ironclads patrolling the Hioldermoss and Daivyn.

Come to think of it, why would the GHoGatA even go that far with the ironclads on the river? With Dairnyth taken and the Hildermoss controlled by ICA ironclads, the GHoGatA cannot secure their supply routes. Marching beyond Lake City would be foolish if not suicidal. If they wait until winter, they suffer casualties from the weather. If they wait until summer, the ironclads will block their supply routes.

I hear the arguments people have made about the risks of going as far West as Lake City. I don't see the risk as being beyond mitigation. Between using the Sylmahn forces to punch Wyrshym out and the Sylmahn-Gurnak canal to supply the forward deployed forces, sending BGV West as far as he can make it under cover of cold weather is a good idea.

The GHoGatA (any chance we could call them the IHA instead?) might not have a choice in attacking. Assuming the ICN takes effective control of the Gulf of Dohlar then the only the Temple Lands and North Harchong will be available to support their forces. Consider all of the stratagems Duchairn is already employing to finance the jihad. By the end of the coming campaigning season the economy of the Temple Lands will probably be starting to collapse. That wouldn't matter so much in a defensive war (I'm thinking of Germany in Spring '45), but there's no way they'll be able to project power after then.

My 2-cents.

jms

You might well be right. If they attack into Siddermark and the jihadi economy collapses, the CoGA's last effective army will be gone without a chance recruiting another. If Magwair and Duchairn can slow the GHoGatA advance enough, they can keep that army when the wheels come off.

I suspect if the CoGA economy is about fall apart, Duchairn will suspect it and plan around it. Magwair is smart enough to take Duchairn's suggestions/advice regarding such matters.

jmseeley wrote:
The GHoGatA (any chance we could call them the IHA instead?) might not have a choice in attacking. Assuming the ICN takes effective control of the Gulf of Dohlar then the only the Temple Lands and North Harchong will be available to support their forces. Consider all of the stratagems Duchairn is already employing to finance the jihad. By the end of the coming campaigning season the economy of the Temple Lands will probably be starting to collapse. That wouldn't matter so much in a defensive war (I'm thinking of Germany in Spring '45), but there's no way they'll be able to project power after then.

My 2-cents.

jms

jmseeley wrote:The GHoGatA (any chance we could call them the IHA instead?)...

"Mighty Host". Put aside the need for abbreviations! In this case, the full name is so long that the abbreviation by first letters is still too long. "Mighty Host." Three syllables, and not even that many more keystrokes or characters than "GHoGatA".

Alternatively, try out "GhoGatA" as a proper acronym. "Go-GA-ta", in crude phonetics. I'd put this as a distant second choice.

OR, a nickname that means much the same thing in briefer terms. I like "God's Posse" for that. It just won't be clear right off the bat.

I think you need to punch out both Kaitswryth and Wyrshym before you take on the Harchongians unless you want to be caught between them. Even more dangerous is the idea of leaving an intact Dohlaran army in your rear.

The allies need to engage these opponents as quickly as possible consistent with doing so om favorable terms.

Don

jmseeley wrote:
If it was purely a matter of ICN logistics I'd say that Port Salthar would be a better choice that Dairnyth: Closer to Gorath, shorter transit on the canal/river system, and probably less vulnerable to counterattack. Of course this depends on taking the Salthar Canal intact, either by coordinated surprise attacks or (preferably) Silkiah switching sides.

Dairnyth offers the advantages you pointed out plus cutting Kaitswyrth's main supply route. My main reservation is that until Dohlar is well and truly out of the war it leaves the alliance supply line with a long flank. Dohlar has just gotten a PhD course on the importance of logistics and the effects of attacking supply lines and even with their losses they'll have enough to mount heavy raids. And I'm pretty sure that keeping Kaitswyrth supplied is something that the entire Group of Four would agree is vital, no matter the cost.

jms

Regarding Dohlar, is it better to invade outright or to use the Gulf of Dohlar to shatter their coastal cities and production centers? Personally, using a coastal raiding strategy backed by ironclads will require fewer men and resources than an invasion. However, without invading the RDA might remain intact for an inopportune counter attack against the allied flank. In the end I suspect the ICN and ICA will attack both along the coast and via the Sheryl-Seridahn canal. Use the Gulf raiding forces to disperse as much of the RDA's strength as possible along the coastal cities, then punch out the remaining forces deployed to block the Allied advance. I suspect this will require fewer men overall than invading without the coastal raids.

The dispersion of the RDA will cripple the RDA's ability to concentrate forces anywhere. If the RDS refuses to disperse, their cities and production centers will be wrecked even more thoroughly as the ICN can use fewer resources per target. Heck, Windshear's mounted raiders could really rampage deep along the Dohlaran coast with near impunity unless the RDA deployed enough nodal forces along the coast. As it stands, enough nodal forces along the coast to deter serious raiding means fewer forces along the Siddermark-Dohlar border for Eastshare to punch out.

As for the CoGA keeping Dairnyth, fat chance. They don't have the troops deployed to do that. Even if the CoGA is willing to let Dohlar fall in order to keep Dairnyth, they don't have enough troops to withstand the concentrated power of Eastshare, High Mount, Hanth and an ironclad or two firing 6" shells. I don't see any number of forces in and around Dairnyth that can stand up to the sort of pounding Eastshare will dish out in any siege and eventual assault.