anwi wrote:n7axw wrote:First, Ahlverez is not going to Evrytyn, I don't think, at least not once he realizes that Rychtyr is in full retreat with Hanth on his heels, especially with an ironclad clearing the way for Hanth.
[SNIP]
Finally, I was just looking at a map... I suspect that force marching from Roymark to Cheryk is Hanth's reinforcements to beef him up as he pursues Rychtyr between Trevyr and Evyrtyn. I hope so anyway. We have established that Rychtyr is about to be reinforced from Dohlar and that numbers wise, Hanth is badly shorthanded.
I discounted Ahlverez going near Thesmar because of two reasons. First, the vicinity of Thesmar up to Cheryk should be in firm control of (and under surveillance by) the ICA and SRA, which Ahlverez should at least suspect. Second, area around Thesmar is swampy, the river probably rather broad (navigable by blue water ships). Without boats or a solid pioneer company, crossing the river with his command intact is complicated and takes time.
Ahlverez needs a secure bridge or a more shallow part of the river to get free. He has to assume that Rychtyr can provide both. And he has no chance of guessing at the current utter defeat of Rychtyr. Thus, he's heading in the direction of Evrytyn.
With respect to High Mount and Eastshare being stuck in the Kyplyngyr: Doesn't make sense. They were held up from catching Ahlverez because they had to mop up elsewhere, so Ahlverez could break free. But the ICA should be (soon) in control of the major high roads in the direction of Cheryk. Since Ahlverez needs to take the longer route and effectively to go cross-country, there's plenty of opportunity for the ICA to be already there when Ahlverez arrives.
So, it's a bleak situation for Ahlverez. He might be able to escape with a small command group, but not with his current 40k troops.
The bright side of his situation is that, personally, he's beyond Clyntahn's reach.
There is something to what you say. But consider, although the Alliance is in control of the route between Thesmar and Evyrtyn, that does not imply concentrated. In short, should Ahlverez to show up a bit west of Thesmar, even his depleted army can break through simply because Hanth and (hopefully) his reinforcements are concentrated against Rychtyr and are too far away to intervene. His way across the river is to use the tools in his supply train to build log rafts.
You are right to say that Ahlverez's current situation is bleak. I really don't see any other way for him to get back to Dohlar without engaging and my bright idea here is far from assured. Add into that the thought that unless Ahlverez is aware of Rychtyr's defeat, he will assume that Rychtyr is still sitting outside Thesmar containing Hanth. So he is headed there anyway. Evyrtyn is only a logical target for Ahlverez if he can skirt around Hanth's forces which I think is unlikely.
Now... we'll see how RFC works it out!
Don