HFQ Official Snippet #19 (I think)

We have some indication of how the Inquisition in Dohlar is going to react to Ahlverez's return.
Rychtyr is making a steady retreat up the river. He's even making preparations to slow Hanth down so he can get his troops on the eastern shore back to safety, if necessary. I'm thinking this indicates Rychtyr's Inquisitor has a head on his shoulders and is not demanding Rychtyr stand and fight. Since they're in communications with higher command, it seems reasonable to think the Dohlaran high command also agrees with Rychtyr's actions. They may even be telling him to fall back.
I'm going to assume Rychtyr's watchdog is following orders from his bosses.
Soooo, unless Clyntahn starts screaming I think the Dohlaran Inquisition is going to happy to see Ahlverez.

Perhaps the question in the Sir Rainos matter is:

Which inquisitor had the most "juice" with Clyntahn?
The one from Dohlar, who authorized the retreat, or the Desnairian who wanted all the Heretics dead yesterday.

This consideration above and beyond the fact that Ahlverez can't presently communicate-(plead his case) while we're pretty sure his enemies are piling on for all they are worth.

"Clearly our last flanking assault was working -until that COWARD fled."
"He constantly undermined my great uncle and the army."
"During our last conference he was clearly terrified."
"He always bragged about how fast his troops could march and how well they could fight -then blamed others when his own poorly planned attacks failed."

What should they do, Randomiser?

Good question. First order of business is to secure Dairnyth. That both secures the Alyksberg canal and a port city in the Bay of Bess. Controlling that port city allows a secure route for the ironclads to enter the Gulf of Dohlar. Ironclads in the Northern Gulf means Thirsk's navy can't operate freely with respect to Claw Island as the Northern ironclads can attack many of the Dohlaran port cities behind Thirsk's deployed fleet.

Second order is BGV to move as far West as possible along the CoGA supply route. The further West they meet Mighty Host, the better. The best case has the ICA bottling up the GHoGatA before they clear the Holy Langehorn canal. Achieving this means the concentration camps are freed and the GH doesn't have the supply route to reach deep into Siddermark.

What follows is open to debate.

Randomiser wrote:Do the ICA really want to move into Dohlar in force? Especially this summer with the MHoGatA coming down from the North and Kaitswyrth still with an army in the field in Cliff Peak Province? I think they have more important fish to fry than trying to occupy a large area with a hostile population. That is only going to soak up LOTS of troops they need fighting battles elsewhere.

We don't really have a view of EoC or Allied strategy. The strategy so far has been very reactive:- 'survive and beat the field armies threatening our allies before they beat us.' We have yet to see the EoC actually be strategically proactive, they haven't had the troops or time for it.

So what should they do? Suppose BGV wins in the NE, Kaitswyrth is dealt with and the MHoGatA is thoroughly disrupted, somehow, this summer, what should the EoC plan to do then, strategically speaking?

The short answer regarding the possible invasion of Dohlar is "No." I expect the ICA will be satisfied if it manages to drive the Dohlarans back into their own country and out of Siddarmark. The ICN is going to hit Gorath Bay extremely hard sometime this fall or winter to teach King Rahnyld that YOU DO NOT HAND CHARISIAN POWs OVER TO THE INQUISITION!!!!!! Since the ironclads mean Thirsk's fleet is toast and the war will be brought all the way to the royal palace if necessary, there's a definite possibility that Dohlar may sue for terms. I'd love to be a fly on the wall when Clyntahn gets that news!

Seriously, if the palace is within 8 miles of the harbor, it's in range of the Haarahld VII's guns, and despite Cayleb's official policy of avoiding civilian casualties whenever possible, reducing the royal palace of Dohlar to rubble as a symbol of what the EoC will do to anyone who betrays its promises to protect Charisian prisoners is worth it. Besides, the palace will most likely be empty by the time the ICN fights its way through any of Thirsk's fleet that's still in harbor, the screw galleys Thirsk's wizard has invented, and whatever other surprises he might have dreamed up for them, like mines and spar torpedoes. (Which the SNARCs will know about, so I hope Admiral Staynair is in command of one of the Haarahld VIIs, since he's a member of the inner circle.)

The MHoGatA is going to be the toughest nut to crack. Ironically, without the Great Canal Raid they would have been mere cannon fodder at the Sylmahn Gap and would have eaten Wyrshym's supplies to the bare bone. Since it's likely that HM could have held Wyrshym out of Old Province, the Great Canal Raid may end up costing more allied lives than it saved - although Merlin and Co. certainly didn't know that at the time. It takes a lot of cannons to kill 1.6 million troops designated as cannon fodder, so even in its primitive, untrained, ill-armed state, the MHoGatA could have overrun allied troops who didn't have sufficient firepower. Killing them off now that they have 600,000 riflemen is going to be a much more difficult task. Of course the allies would rather achieve a tactical defeat of the former serfs and send them back to Harchong to wreak mayhem, especially once they learned that they would have been murdered by the Harchongese army rather than being allowed to return home if they'd won!

The ICN is going to seize the Bay of Bess and the Gulf of Hankey, as well as the western end of the Salthar canal in the next few months. That cuts off all the southern supply routes for the CoGA. The Dairynth - Alyksberg canal will be unusable for them even if the allies can't use it either, which will leave Kaitswyrth in a tough logistical position if he hasn't already retreated north or been defeated. Both ends of the Salthar canal will be blockaded, which cuts off all supplies and troops moving north from Desnair. Control of Hankey Sound means Desnair can't ship troops or supplies to the war front - and will lose a lot of both trying.

Once the MHoGatA has been defeated or is headed home with blood in its eye and Siddarmark has been recaptured all the way to its borders, the next logical move would be to invade Zion. Capturing the Temple as long as hundreds of pilgrims are allowed in daily is a trivial task - just disguise a few hundred ICM as "pilgrims." Then kill the guards, seize the doors so they can't be locked and barred, and start landing the troops. (The semaphore from Hsing Wei's passage needs to be cut or a station captured and emergency messages not passed along so the Temple doesn't know an ICN fleet is approaching.)

Once the EoC holds the Temple and Zion as well, the CoGA will mostly sue for terms. Exactly who will sue for terms on behalf of Mother Church is a good question, since Clyntahn is a dead man and the entire Go4 are marked for death. We've all been led to think that Duchairn will lead a reformist movement and gain leadership of the CoGA, but that's pretty much the last thing Merlin wants. The end of the war means the end of free innovation and the Inquisition rubber stamping any invention that will help the war effort. Paityr Wylsynn will keep on granting patents of course, but it's been rather nice to have Mother Church approve Charisian innovations as well. It certainly reassures the reformists in the EoC, and probably the TLs as well, since although they may be surrounded by heretics, at least the heathen aren't breaking the Proscriptions!

Should the allies and the CoGA reach terms, those terms should include the recognition of the CoC as a valid way to God with equal standing as the CoGA, the complete dismantling of the Inquisition, and the repudiation of the Books of Schueler and Chihiro. Some serious war reparations should be included as well for Siddarmark - the EoC won't need them, thanks to Silverlode Island.

The complete abolition of serfdom, peonage, and slavery across Safehold would be a nice touch as well, although Desnair and Harchong would ignore that bit of the treaty. It would certainly be fodder for future slave revolts, and the allies are likely to have several hundred thousand Harchongese prisoners they'll happily send home - with their rifles.

Just a some points I have been chewing on...

First, Ahlverez is not going to Evrytyn, I don't think, at least not once he realizes that Rychtyr is in full retreat with Hanth on his heels, especially with an ironclad clearing the way for Hanth. Ahlverez is in no condition to offer battle. What he should do is go home the quickest, safest possible way to refit and get his men adequately provisioned and reorganized. His best bet is to skirt Thesmar, cross the Sherdian between Thesmar and the Cheryk forest and march straight into Dohlar from there.

Secondly, on Clyntahn scapegoating Ahlverez. Maybe. But he is going to face a couple of tiny little problems doing that. The biggest is that the presence of allied armies between him and Dohlar are going to cut off his communications. Clyntahn's sphere of influence is rapidly shrinking. Within a couple of months, both Dohlar and Desnair are going to be cut off from the Temple, probably before Ahlverez gets home to be scapegoated.

Thirdly, a whole pile of crap is about to land on Clyntahn. Fairly soon he will lose both Wyrshym's and Kaitswryth's armies. Lots of opportunity for frothing at the mouth and scapegoating there. I doubt that with all of the fresh disaster swirling around, he is going to be much concerned with Ahlverez. Could it be that avoiding being the scapegoat will be the thing that pushes Magwair into collusion with Duchairn's conspiracy?

Finally, I was just looking at a map... I suspect that force marching from Roymark to Cheryk is Hanth's reinforcements to beef him up as he pursues Rychtyr between Trevyr and Evyrtyn. I hope so anyway. We have established that Rychtyr is about to be reinforced from Dohlar and that numbers wise, Hanth is badly shorthanded.

Don

There've been some interesting thoughts expressed in the last few hours, particularly concerning the "what now" question.

I agree it's a question of priorities, and we really have seen CE and Siddarmark mainly reacting, and not planning proactively. So, CE's immediate options (as to priorities) are:

1. Focus on Wyrshym and Kaitsworth in the north, trapping them or driving them at least to the Siddarmark border;

2. Focus on Rychtyr, driving him along the Sheryl-Seridan Canal, as a means of isolating and/or occupying Dohlar;

3. Do the same thing, but focus on the Dairnyth-Alyksberg Canal;

4. Prepare for the Harchongese Army, half of which looks to be going north along the Holy Langhorne Canal, and half of which looks to be traveling a more southern route along the northern shore of the Gulf of Tanshar;

5. Strengthen the naval presence in the Gulf of Dohlar/Hankey Sound and interdict shipping between the Howard subcontinent and the mainland; and/or

6. Take Silkiah, or at least the Salthar Canal.

Now, my thoughts on each one:

1. Our current indication is the CE's near-term strategy, at least, is to focus on Kaitsworth and Wyrshym. Why is unclear, but securing Siddarmark and liberating what citizens are left in the northwest would be a worthy objective, and near and dear to Stohnar's heart. This means other initiatives, though important, won't receive as high a priority. It should also result in liberation of at least one POW camp, with attendant implications regarding motivation of Allied forces.

2-3. This means, to me at least, options 2 and 3 are less likely, or are expected to take more time. Given the enormous chunks the CE is biting off, slowing down makes sense, as CE will have bitten off a lot on which to chew. In a sense, this also means Ahlverez is not as much of a priority.... Except for two things. First, leaving 40,000 men on your flank, in your rear or in your blind spot is simply stupid militarily. Second, High Mount's soldiers are mounted infantry. Even if it takes them time to clean up and recover from the battle, they should be able to cover 3 to 4 times the distance Ahlverez' troops can cover, especially if Ahlverez insists on dragging his artillery along.

And so, my thought is the campaign against Rychtyr will go forward, but not as fast as the northern campaign, and occupying Dohlar is not a current objective, although finishing off Ahlverez' troops is.

4. Preparing for the Harchongese Army is a given. It has to happen. Were I the CE's main strategist, I would be doing whatever I can to slow/hinder/destroy/render-less-effective both branches of the Harchongese Army. This could involve interdicting supplies or weapons, or anything else CE can do. The question is what can the CE do to do right now to screw up the Harchongese Army before it even gets to the front? The only option I would see to do this would either be sabatoge or use of the Navy in the Gulf of Tanshar. There may be other options, but I'm not devious enough to see them yet.

A second prong to this would be to position men and materials in the best possible manner to limit the Harchongese Army's effectiveness. This means positioning forces where natural barriers hinder the AoG from deploying its forces to maximum effect. That likely will involve the rivers/canals in western Siddarmark, the Snake Mountains, and who knows what else. We don't have enough information yet.

If you take the second prong seriously, defeating Wyrshym and Kaitswyrth makes a lot more sense as an initial strategy. The CE will want blooded troops, well supplied, available and able to focus on only the Harchongese Army. That focus can only come if Kaitswyrth and Wyrshym already have been defeated in detail.

5. Interdicting supplies in the Gulf and the Hankey Sound sounds appealing. The problem is the sheer size of these two bodies of water might render a blockade and/or interdiction ineffective. Some good intelligence, and a lot more boats, might help, though.

6. Taking the Salthar Canal is a nice goal, but not one I see as a priority now, or at least, not until the Hankey Sound is truly "controlled."

n7axw wrote:First, Ahlverez is not going to Evrytyn, I don't think, at least not once he realizes that Rychtyr is in full retreat with Hanth on his heels, especially with an ironclad clearing the way for Hanth.
[SNIP]
Finally, I was just looking at a map... I suspect that force marching from Roymark to Cheryk is Hanth's reinforcements to beef him up as he pursues Rychtyr between Trevyr and Evyrtyn. I hope so anyway. We have established that Rychtyr is about to be reinforced from Dohlar and that numbers wise, Hanth is badly shorthanded.

I discounted Ahlverez going near Thesmar because of two reasons. First, the vicinity of Thesmar up to Cheryk should be in firm control of (and under surveillance by) the ICA and SRA, which Ahlverez should at least suspect. Second, area around Thesmar is swampy, the river probably rather broad (navigable by blue water ships). Without boats or a solid pioneer company, crossing the river with his command intact is complicated and takes time.
Ahlverez needs a secure bridge or a more shallow part of the river to get free. He has to assume that Rychtyr can provide both. And he has no chance of guessing at the current utter defeat of Rychtyr. Thus, he's heading in the direction of Evrytyn.
With respect to High Mount and Eastshare being stuck in the Kyplyngyr: Doesn't make sense. They were held up from catching Ahlverez because they had to mop up elsewhere, so Ahlverez could break free. But the ICA should be (soon) in control of the major high roads in the direction of Cheryk. Since Ahlverez needs to take the longer route and effectively to go cross-country, there's plenty of opportunity for the ICA to be already there when Ahlverez arrives.
So, it's a bleak situation for Ahlverez. He might be able to escape with a small command group, but not with his current 40k troops.
The bright side of his situation is that, personally, he's beyond Clyntahn's reach.

PeterZ wrote:[SNIP]
Second order is BGV to move as far West as possible along the CoGA supply route. The further West they meet Mighty Host, the better. The best case has the ICA bottling up the GHoGatA before they clear the Holy Langehorn canal. Achieving this means the concentration camps are freed and the GH doesn't have the supply route to reach deep into Siddermark.

Is that really the best approach? It would require very fast and long-distance movements of a lot ICA and SRA troops beyond their own secure lines of communication. For me, that's a rather risky proposition.
I agree that you should get at Guarnak and probably even resume the offensive against Aivahnstyn, but the "mighty host" should reach the frontlines well before the ICA can cover that much ground.
Moreover, in case of the "mighty host", a simple defence in depth approach might be better. Just given them two or three lines to attack, suck them in into a prepared position and then encircle them and cut them off. At least, that's what I'd be thinking about. And that's a bit easier if they are coming storming at you, given the likely preferences and fallacies of the "mighty host's" officers - and inquisitors...

Just an assuption but Malys is a root of Malyktyn, IMO he should be midway between the southern tip of Kyplynger and Cheryk. I would hope that he is about to be cut off by forces from Roymark and Malyktyn who must be looking for him right now!

I don't think he has had time nor would DE would let him run any farther and is working to cut his retreat.

n7axw wrote:

Graydon wrote:
Does Safehold history typically have major sieges?

From what little we've got, the answer is no; the Church tolerated a certain amount of open-field warfare, but any time things got down to the potentially decisive or the potentially genocidal, the Church has tended to step in and force a settlement. If no one expects to have to besiege a walled city, or at least not a major one, the effort to make the heavy siege train isn't going to get made. (As distinct from Ottomans, who had both Christian fortress-cities and their own subsidiary cities, potentially held by rebellious satraps, to worry about.)

Just to throw something in here... The art of doing sieges is apparently known. Alyksburg was a walled city which Ahlverez had to assault. It was undermanned to the point where a standard siege didn't need to be conducted. But the implication that under other circumstances it might have been needed is there. When DE redid Ft. Tairys, he had engineers who understood how the positions had to be constructed to withstand direct assault. The Desnairians and Dohlarans, on the other hand knew how to develop siege lines approaching those positions.

My point is that siege warfare was apparently known to both sides although we don't have a lot of evidence about how frequently it was done. We do know that the church does step in occasionally, especially when it perceives its interests threatened. But the church obviously never managed to banish war. And where you have war, there will be sieges.

Don

Also the rule of War had things like if you breach the walls then you must give the opportunity for the besieged to surrender. I think we can assume centuries of sieges