COGA after current war

In his conversation with Irys during the moment of her conversion to the COC, Archbishop Staynair tells her, "And if we succeed, if we survive this whirlwind of fire and blood, we won't overthrow simply the Group of Four. We will also overthrow the coercive power of the Inquisition, and that will change the lives of every living human being in ways those men sitting in Zion could never conceive, understand...or accept." MTAT, May, Year of God 896, VII.

This leaves us with the question as to the place of the COGA after the war. According to the above, the coercive power of the Inquisition will be broken, which given the current system would also shatter her political power since that rested upon her ability to coerce.

Yet on the other hand, vast numbers of people, probably a strong majority will still be believers in the COGA's teachings.

So who will lead the COGA after the war? What limitations will she be forced to work within? How will she continue to influence events?

You are invited to speculate away...

Don

n7axw wrote:In his conversation with Irys during the moment of her conversion to the COC, Archbishop Staynair tells her, "And if we succeed, if we survive this whirlwind of fire and blood, we won't overthrow simply the Group of Four. We will also overthrow the coercive power of the Inquisition, and that will change the lives of every living human being in ways those men sitting in Zion could never conceive, understand...or accept." MTAT, May, Year of God 896, VII.

This leaves us with the question as to the place of the COGA after the war. According to the above, the coercive power of the Inquisition will be broken, which given the current system would also shatter her political power since that rested upon her ability to coerce.

Yet on the other hand, vast numbers of people, probably a strong majority will still be believers in the COGA's teachings.

So who will lead the COGA after the war? What limitations will she be forced to work within? How will she continue to influence events?

You are invited to speculate away...

Don

States will be in a lot more powerful position relative to the Church, when it is established as a principle that it isn't a universal church and that a monarch can take it or leave it. Compare Europe after the Reformation settled down as a done-deal, or even just close enough to one: Catholic countries like France got to be "Catholic as they choose".

But that didn't yet stop religious violence as move it to a matter of civil wars with foreign influence.

You can easily look forward to scheming and outright warfare in, say, Dohlar, among reformists looking for a more national variation on the CoGA, traditionalists who want to remain Zion's paladins, and revolutionaries out to create a Charisian-inspired "Church of Dohlar".

Siddarmark is going to have generations of strife and regional partisanship with religious overlays, as the returning, semi-reconciled Temple Loyalists grouse about the "War of Heretic Aggression" and reconstruction makes every decision grounds for continued mistrust.

The oppressed masses of Harchong and Desnair have nothing to lose but their chains and a world to win, and they aren't going to be universally accepting of the religious opiate they've been getting for generations anymore. But they haven't an ideology or a theology to replace it, or infrastructure. Heck, given their spread, given their illiteracy, given their lack of communications, they're lousy candidates for revolutions, and no one is likely to sponsor local Safehold Mao's - intentionally. But more likely than that is a dozen peasant revolts that are poorly timed and probably put down. With a lot of luck, Harchong's Mighty Host will provide a genuine popular national institution that can launch a coup and create a new state, with only hundreds of thousands of people killed in bloody reprisals with only a loose association with justice. Without a lot of luck, it will be worse. I can't picture anything much better even with all the optimism I can summon up.

What's the role of the Church in that? Probably very little. The local priesthood can either go with the revolutions of their parishes or be irrelevant. In the former case, Zion and its teachings are still irrelevant. Maybe - hopefully - those parish priests will be able to articulate a political program that can be implemented that doesn't amount to "choke the landowners with the blood of their children and burn everything that reminds us of them". But after that, the liberated peasants and townspeople are likely to have a role of religion in their lives that's maybe - helping ourselves to a lot more hope here too - a lot like that of most of us in the developed world: something we have and value but doesn't differentiate the way we live or behave too terribly much from our neighbors with different religions or none.

The amount of power a Church has in that case is comparable to that of a major hobby industry, which isn't a bad description of it either.

n7axw wrote:In his conversation with Irys during the moment of her conversion to the COC, Archbishop Staynair tells her, "And if we succeed, if we survive this whirlwind of fire and blood, we won't overthrow simply the Group of Four. We will also overthrow the coercive power of the Inquisition, and that will change the lives of every living human being in ways those men sitting in Zion could never conceive, understand...or accept." MTAT, May, Year of God 896, VII.

This leaves us with the question as to the place of the COGA after the war. According to the above, the coercive power of the Inquisition will be broken, which given the current system would also shatter her political power since that rested upon her ability to coerce.

Yet on the other hand, vast numbers of people, probably a strong majority will still be believers in the COGA's teachings.

So who will lead the COGA after the war? What limitations will she be forced to work within? How will she continue to influence events?

You are invited to speculate away...

Don

Assuming he is not killed by the Inquisition in the next few books, I think Duchairn will be the leader of the post-war CoG.

Henry Brown wrote:

n7axw wrote:In his conversation with Irys during the moment of her conversion to the COC, Archbishop Staynair tells her, "And if we succeed, if we survive this whirlwind of fire and blood, we won't overthrow simply the Group of Four. We will also overthrow the coercive power of the Inquisition, and that will change the lives of every living human being in ways those men sitting in Zion could never conceive, understand...or accept." MTAT, May, Year of God 896, VII.

This leaves us with the question as to the place of the COGA after the war. According to the above, the coercive power of the Inquisition will be broken, which given the current system would also shatter her political power since that rested upon her ability to coerce.

Yet on the other hand, vast numbers of people, probably a strong majority will still be believers in the COGA's teachings.

So who will lead the COGA after the war? What limitations will she be forced to work within? How will she continue to influence events?

You are invited to speculate away...

Don

Assuming he is not killed by the Inquisition in the next few books, I think Duchairn will be the leader of the post-war CoG.

I think that a lot of people agree with you. But when the last shot is fired in this round, what will be the inquisition's role and how will it exert its influence?

Don

n7axw wrote:In his conversation with Irys during the moment of her conversion to the COC, Archbishop Staynair tells her, "And if we succeed, if we survive this whirlwind of fire and blood, we won't overthrow simply the Group of Four. We will also overthrow the coercive power of the Inquisition, and that will change the lives of every living human being in ways those men sitting in Zion could never conceive, understand...or accept." MTAT, May, Year of God 896, VII.

This leaves us with the question as to the place of the COGA after the war. According to the above, the coercive power of the Inquisition will be broken, which given the current system would also shatter her political power since that rested upon her ability to coerce.

Yet on the other hand, vast numbers of people, probably a strong majority will still be believers in the COGA's teachings.

So who will lead the COGA after the war? What limitations will she be forced to work within? How will she continue to influence events?

You are invited to speculate away...

Don

Don,

I imagine there will be an young Schuelerite put in charge of reforming the Inquisition. I expect his name will be Paityr Wylsynn. There will be a new range of Vicars in the council and a New Grand Vicar out of Glacierheart.

Change will be dramatic but the intitutions will continue with some different management. There is a case for maintaining continuity. Secular Power will be stripped from the Church and COGA will relegate itself (by the new management) to temporal matters, charity and education.

The reveal of history will be a gradual and thoughtful process. The reveal will be easiest if it is part of the COGA (reformed) educational process and sermons from the Pulpit. It would be the COGA (reformed) conferring the enlightenment upon the faithful.

The Church has had changes and hopefully if the reveal comes from the COGA (reformed) it will come as a voice of authority.

Then there is the millenial return which will have wrenches of it's own to throw into the gears

David is fond of surprises.

Clyntahn reviewing the victory parade with the entire population of Charis about to be purified would be surprising.

phillies wrote:David is fond of surprises.

Clyntahn reviewing the victory parade with the entire population of Charis about to be purified would be surprising.

That wouldn't be a surprise. It would be complete whiplash. My neck hurts just thinking about it...

Don

n7axw wrote:In his conversation with Irys during the moment of her conversion to the COC, Archbishop Staynair tells her, "And if we succeed, if we survive this whirlwind of fire and blood, we won't overthrow simply the Group of Four. We will also overthrow the coercive power of the Inquisition, and that will change the lives of every living human being in ways those men sitting in Zion could never conceive, understand...or accept." MTAT, May, Year of God 896, VII.

This leaves us with the question as to the place of the COGA after the war. According to the above, the coercive power of the Inquisition will be broken, which given the current system would also shatter her political power since that rested upon her ability to coerce.

Yet on the other hand, vast numbers of people, probably a strong majority will still be believers in the COGA's teachings.

So who will lead the COGA after the war? What limitations will she be forced to work within? How will she continue to influence events?

As usual, JeffEngel's summary of what he expects is eloquent and believable. I have my two cents to add. I didn't quote him for brevity's sake - as if I ever manage to be brief!

First, note that Staynair said "the coercive power of the Inquisition will be broken." This implies that any treaty with the CoGA will require the elimination of the bloodthirsty inquisitors and the enforcement of the Writ by the Inquisition, as well as the repudiation of both the Question and the Punishment of Schueler - and in addition, both the books of Schueler and Chihiro, which were not part of the original Writ. (Which needs to be pointed out in the surrender terms!)

The only hold the church would have over the ruling powers of Safehold without the threat of the Inquisition is the money it's loaned to them, and the social matrix it maintains that actively teaches supporting the rulers the church has duly appointed in each realm. (Note that Cayleb ignored that major requirement, and Staynair and the local Charisian clergy stamped his papers of succession and sent them to Zion already signed. Charis and Chisholm love their Emperor and Empress regardless of CoC support.) A mainland realm couldn't get away with that now, but with no Inquisition the church is relegated to a mere social institution that provides the fabric of a cohesive society. (Plus it's bankrupt the second tithes become voluntary!)

I can't imagine that the EoC and the CoC will settle for a peace treaty that doesn't abolish serfdom across Safehold. I'm sure the local barons will do their best to squash that information - and OWL will make sure it's plastered on every wall it can find! The unfortunate result will be a wave of bloodshed as the masters and their families and the overlords are murdered (and worse) by their former vassals, and there will be massive slave revolts - especially if the Harchongese army set to sweep down on Siddarmark is allowed to go home with their weapons. But there are clearly three countries that need a complete housecleaning of their ruling classes - Harchong, Desnair, and the Temple Lands. (Less so for the decent vicars in the Temple Lands, but they do have serfs, even if they don't call them that!)

The power of the church has been badly abused in Desnair and Harchong, as JeffEngel pointed out. The slaves and serfs who have been taught by the local priests that their lot in life is to suffer on Safehold to earn a greater reward in the next life aren't likely to stay in line for long if they learn there isn't an Inquisition to enforce Mother Church's edicts and that Mother Church agreed to abolish serfdom! True, the lash of their taskmasters and the army of Harchong (and presumably Desnair, although we have no textev of how slavery is enforced there) are still around, and will still be effective in keeping the peons down - until the peons realize that the local priest has been lying to them about their lot in life. That's when things will get ugly...

At some point when those who have abused the lower classes for centuries have been purged, some sort of society needs to emerge to keep huge portions of the planet from falling into barbarism or Warlordism. The CoC (or an extremely reformed CoGA) can be the organization that once again establishes a stable society, although one without slaves, serfs, or peons, in which every man and woman is able to engage in the pursuit of happiness. The role of the archangels will be vastly reduced or eliminated from the church's teachings, while one's relationship with God will be emphasized. Treating fairly with one's fellow man, and loving him as oneself will be a central focus.

Get to that point, seize control of the Rakurai, and survive whatever the return of the archangels entails, and in a couple of generations much of Safehold will be ready for a gradual implementation of the Big Reveal. It won't occur without bloodshed and without the possibly setting off another round of warfare, but eventually the truth will triumph - especially with skimmers, transports, and assault shuttles whizzing about in plain view in the skies!

When people from the EoC and Siddarmark begin to live for centuries while those in other realms are still affected by the ravages of plagues, disease, and early death, the survivors and their children will be much more receptive to TF medical treatment and TF tech - and eventually accept that the CoGA was a diabolical lie.

I'm sure RFC has devised ways to speed up the process. I'm merely showing that if the CoGA signs a peace treaty that eliminates the power of the Inquisition and the church as a coercive and political force, the die is cast for its eventual destruction. That process would be long and strewn with the corpses of countless Safeholdians, which is why a dramatic event associated with the Big Reveal that sweeps the planet overnight is preferable. Get it over with quickly and achieve stability after one major war, not several recurring ones scattered across the globe, and if at all possible set the TF tech available to the inner circle free to speed up the process! Eliminating the Rakurai or controlling it is the key to enable the Big Reveal. After that it's just a matter of time...

Mac's latest post presupposes the Safehold Creation myth will whither on the vine. I don't believe it will. It can't. There simply is too much hard evidence reinforcing the original Writ and Testimonies.

Even if the rakurai is destroyed; unless the Writ and the Myth is thoroughly discredited as absolute fact, Safehold remains irreconcilably fractured. Humanity will continue to divide themselves between demonstrably Good and Evil. So, I believe Mr. Engle's view is likely very accurate leading up to the Return. After the Returning entities confront the results of their millennia old policy and try to reconcile their purpose with the CoC, Inner Circle and Lt. Commander Nimue Alban, then perhaps enough doubt can be instilled in those core symbols of Safehold's identity to enable the sorts of change Mac suggests will come.

The risk of course is that the Returners confirm the Writ and Myth. I just don't see how that risk cannot be taken. Unless the Safehold's beginnings can be discredited, that society simply will be hamstrung by the neurosis of those founding board members traumatized by the Gbaba invasion. That's bodes ill for surviving the second meeting with those Giant Bad A$$ Biker Aliens.

McGuiness wrote:First, note that Staynair said "the coercive power of the Inquisition will be broken." This implies that any treaty with the CoGA will require the elimination of the bloodthirsty inquisitors and the enforcement of the Writ by the Inquisition, as well as the repudiation of both the Question and the Punishment of Schueler - and in addition, both the books of Schueler and Chihiro, which were not part of the original Writ. (Which needs to be pointed out in the surrender terms!)

Given that kind of high bar for a treaty agreement, I wonder if the war may "end" with an armistice short of a treaty, with both sides willing - demanding - to stop fighting, but not able to reach a formal accord. I don't think that would be quite a disaster from Merlin's point of view, in that it'd force the CoGA to maintain innovation in the uneasy quasi-peace to follow, while undermining its claims to be fighting a holy war against the enemies of God Himself. Certainly the kind of adjustment of attitudes that may bring about could make a genuine peace later on easier to swallow.

It would still mean breaking the Inquisition, in effect if not in name. They simply could not maintain authority as fanatics-in-chief for a side that's abandoned fanaticism to make pragmatic accommodations diplomatically. It's hardly the complete victory Staynair forecasts, but then, it's also a stage short of the end of conflict.

The only hold the church would have over the ruling powers of Safehold without the threat of the Inquisition is the money it's loaned to them, and the social matrix it maintains that actively teaches supporting the rulers the church has duly appointed in each realm. (Note that Cayleb ignored that major requirement, and Staynair and the local Charisian clergy stamped his papers of succession and sent them to Zion already signed. Charis and Chisholm love their Emperor and Empress regardless of CoC support.) A mainland realm couldn't get away with that now, but with no Inquisition the church is relegated to a mere social institution that provides the fabric of a cohesive society. (Plus it's bankrupt the second tithes become voluntary!)

Some Church to maintain religious imprimatur is likely to be necessary for any state without popular direct legitimacy (e.g. Charis) or legitimacy on an electoral basis (Siddarmark), but if the CoGA recognizes the CoC, the door's open to more national churches (England, for the Reformation example) or the threat of them (France, for another). So the Church ends up having to grant that imprimatur whether it likes it or not, unless the ruler is so abhorrent that they're willing to risk losing that state to another national church.

I can't imagine that the EoC and the CoC will settle for a peace treaty that doesn't abolish serfdom across Safehold. I'm sure the local barons will do their best to squash that information - and OWL will make sure it's plastered on every wall it can find! The unfortunate result will be a wave of bloodshed as the masters and their families and the overlords are murdered (and worse) by their former vassals, and there will be massive slave revolts - especially if the Harchongese army set to sweep down on Siddarmark is allowed to go home with their weapons. But there are clearly three countries that need a complete housecleaning of their ruling classes - Harchong, Desnair, and the Temple Lands. (Less so for the decent vicars in the Temple Lands, but they do have serfs, even if they don't call them that!)

I can imagine the EoC settling for such a treaty. But really - the Mighty Host is likely to do the job on the ground better than any formal declaration would ever do anyway. And after that, in a world where the Charisian throne rests on the support of the people of Charis, where Siddarmark is restored in triumph, where Silkiah is free to choose its own destiny and keep its tithes and tributes - the rulers of serf- and slave-keeping states pretty much have the choice of trying to keep them and facing revolutions (and becoming ever more backward by comparison to free labor states), or arranging some sort of soft landing that maintains the ruling class in some sort of power or at least safety and comfort while liberalizing.

When Sodar becomes a small industrial power with railroads providing transportation finally, even a Desnairian noble may figure things have to change.

The power of the church has been badly abused in Desnair and Harchong, as JeffEngel pointed out. The slaves and serfs who have been taught by the local priests that their lot in life is to suffer on Safehold to earn a greater reward in the next life aren't likely to stay in line for long if they learn there isn't an Inquisition to enforce Mother Church's edicts and that Mother Church agreed to abolish serfdom! True, the lash of their taskmasters and the army of Harchong (and presumably Desnair, although we have no textev of how slavery is enforced there) are still around, and will still be effective in keeping the peons down - until the peons realize that the local priest has been lying to them about their lot in life. That's when things will get ugly...

To be fair, the priest himself probably didn't know any better. He'll have a choice himself: be their priest or the Church's and landlord's. Just what being their priest will amount to - teacher, shepherd, friend, or revolutionary - can and will vary plenty.

The parish priest may not be remotely local, though I don't know that the Church ever shuffled them quite so much. But he's there now and will have been there for some time - even Archbishops and Bishops Executor sent to the Out Islands "went native" often enough. So identifying with his parish may not be an exception. (And with armed peasants and a hobbled, overworked Inquisition, it's likely safer.)

At some point when those who have abused the lower classes for centuries have been purged, some sort of society needs to emerge to keep huge portions of the planet from falling into barbarism or Warlordism. The CoC (or an extremely reformed CoGA) can be the organization that once again establishes a stable society, although one without slaves, serfs, or peons, in which every man and woman is able to engage in the pursuit of happiness. The role of the archangels will be vastly reduced or eliminated from the church's teachings, while one's relationship with God will be emphasized. Treating fairly with one's fellow man, and loving him as oneself will be a central focus.

I can certainly see that as the urgent, self-imposed mission for many parish priests. We saw a bit of that in occupied Corisande, for instance. Outside the Inquisition, the vicarate, and the senior CoGA leadership, that's probably the mission for most of the Church individually, and it's infected Duchairn. Unfortunately, those are not the people in charge, and it's hard to be in charge and maintain that sort of attitude.

It may favor the dissolution of the CoGA into national churches. In effect, they "just" slice off the central leadership and its instruments of control, leaving the people whose life work is making the lives of their fellows better according to the Writ. When it turns out that the Writ isn't the work of Archangels but a group of mortal humans with vastly greater knowledge and a grab-bag of motives... well, if you've been doing what you have because it's the right thing to do, according to a document that gave you good tools to do it, you should be able to shrug and carry on.

If you've been hiding behind the authority of a false God to screw women in your palace, eat yourself spherical, kill for pleasure, and run Safehold like your dollhouse, we've got a mob with torches and pitchforks waiting.