Speculating about Duchairn's conspiracy

McGuiness wrote:Since there's no textev that the Inquisition has a graduation ceremony for new inquisitors where they could be blown up or sniped at from a distance, I think this theory is a no go.

As has been mentioned, all of the military units in Zion and the Temple are under control of the Inquisition, which Clyntahn organized specifically to avoid being subject to a coup.

The very worst thing that could happen from Merlin's point of view would be an overthrow of the Go4 and reform of the CoGA, with a possible peace treaty with recognition of the CoC as an acknowledged church of God and the Archangels. As much as he hates it, Merlin needs the war to make Safeholdians think out of the box they're trapped in, and to break the power of the CoGA once and for all. Yet if Duchairn somehow managed to kill Clyntahn and Rayno, and squelch the Inquisition to the point he survived, seized control of the CoGA, and sued for peace, Cayleb and Stohnar would pretty much be forced to listen to his terms.

Cayleb might sail the Haarahld VIIs into Temple Bay and start unloading the troops if Merlin got wind of a coup in the offing, since the heads of the Go4 on pikes, as satisfying as it would be, won't advance Merlin's agenda. (The semaphore would warn the Temple that an ICN fleet was on the way, giving all the vicars a chance to flee.)

Yet even though Merlin has sworn that if he gets Clyntahn in range of a rifle, the fat fornicator will be a dead man, Rayno is much more competent and even more dangerous in his own way. He isn't nuts, and doesn't believe that he's God, but he does believe in the mission of the Inquisition, and that it should be the mailed fist to further the "cause of righteousness and to stamp out heresy wherever it can be found." He's the one who selects psychopaths as inquisitors, and things might actually be worse if he gets control and manages to implement his full agenda - which may end automatic approval of new weapons that mimic the effects of the heretics weapons. That would lead to losing the war, but I'm sure he would paint the EoC and Siddarmark as the bad guys persecuting Mother Church and violating the Proscriptions, and he could make those charges stick, even if he's forced to flee the Temple due to an EoC invasion of Zion.

As much as Merlin hates Clyntahn, he needs him. Duchairn poses a much greater threat to Merlin's mission to free mankind from the chains of the CoGA and return them to the stars to eliminate the Gbaba.

First, you're correct that Merlin probably would not support my idea - maybe. I think you're correct that it is easier in a way to fight the war against him, both because his "excesses" are making lots of enemies, and because he shows at least some behavior like refusing to give up any ground that helps the allies.

As far as the ceremony goes, we know from the book that there are classes for new Inquisitors, and that there is a cadre to train them. I'm sure there will be some sort of graduation ceremony, if for no other reason than to permit Clyntahn to encourage them to have no mercy in attacking the Church's enemies. Whether it would be inside or outside the Temple is my speculation. So I think it might be a possible venue for an assassination.

As to who would do it, yes, I think Merlin might be against it. But if he were put in a situation where he could put a bullet into Clyntahn, I think he might do it anyway, because of how much they hate the SOB. Hard to say.

This might be exactly the kind of operation Nynian would implement, OTOH. It fits in exactly with the kinds of operations her people have already pulled off. And would she tell Merlin? Not unless she really needed his help.

And what about the other members of the Gang of 4? Independently of Nynian, they might consider it a good way to start cleaning up.

-- Bob G

I figure Duchairn still wants at least a reformed CoGA on Safehold.

Accepting the continued existence of the Church of Charis is, has been, and will be very hard, but I do think he's at a point where he realizes that there can't be a reformed, humane CoGA that has re-integrated or destroyed the CoC anymore. If the jihad "wins", the CoGA will have had to destroy forever Siddarmark, Tarot, Charis, Chisholm, Emerald, Zebediah, and Corisande: there's no hope for any generous victory anymore. And there's equally no hope for a generous, tolerant re-integration of the Churches of Safehold, at least not on the terms of any CoGA with Clyntahn's hands on the reins of power. That realization probably feels like spikes on his heart every time he thinks of it, but he's not able to fool himself or think wishfully enough to believe otherwise now.

But he's not at a point where he's willing to abandon the CoGA itself. I'm not sure that he's actually got a plan, or even a conception of something that's both plausible enough to take seriously as a goal and something he can live well enough with to scheme and work for it. Best guess, the dream he's closest to being able to believe in would be a reformed CoGA with Clyntahn and Rayno out, Trynair and Magwair brought around, and a peace that has the two Churches (and, alas, maybe more) mutually tolerant. But it's likely to take repeated setbacks to weaken Clyntahn's position, combined with secret arrangements to bring Temple Guard and/or suborned Inquisitors into line for an effective coup against Clyntahn - followed by being able to bring the stupid, losing jihad to a halt in a way that all the whipped-up Loyalists and the enraged Reformists, Siddarmarkans, and Charisians can agree on, and then both reforming the CoGA in the face of that disaster, working out a doctrine that can accept schism long-term, restoring the moral authority of that shattered, recently bloodthirsty Church, and managing to get out of bankruptcy without various states just opting out of the tithe-hungry CoGA when they're then free to secede from it too.

I don't think that a sober, serious man has wildest dreams that get that crazy.

Duchairn's married to a Church for which there's no happy ending and his willingness to accept intolerable things hasn't gotten far enough yet to move on. And where to, anyway? He's a good man (now), and he's one of the people responsible for wrecking his beloved Church. So he's not going to be willing to abandon it, even when it's past saving in any form he can love.

So he's doing all he can to make or keep it a Church that helps people who need it, and to win this stupid jihad, even when he cannot afford to look at what "victory" has to mean now. Still, if he's going through those motions without any end-game, he probably figures if he can launch a successful coup against Clyntahn, he can't make it worse.

Someone/s remarked earlier that Magwair would have to feel threatened to move to Duchairn's camp. I think over the next few months Magwair is going to be seriously threatened by Clyntahn. Magwair's armies are on the verge of extinction unless he moves them back. I know of no reason to expect C to move from his "no-retreat" positions. This confrontation could even reach the point of C having M arrested and put to the big Q.
Masgwair's also exposed a bit by the changes his whiz kids are coming up with to stay abreast of Charis.

THoughts?

EdThomas wrote:Someone/s remarked earlier that Magwair would have to feel threatened to move to Duchairn's camp. I think over the next few months Magwair is going to be seriously threatened by Clyntahn. Magwair's armies are on the verge of extinction unless he moves them back. I know of no reason to expect C to move from his "no-retreat" positions. This confrontation could even reach the point of C having M arrested and put to the big Q.
Masgwair's also exposed a bit by the changes his whiz kids are coming up with to stay abreast of Charis.

THoughts?

Clyntahn's probably well aware of his material to blackmail, threaten, or execute anyone who's participating in, sponsoring, using, or just appreciating all the innovations that are necessary to fight his jihad. On the other hand, he does know that he's got to keep writing dispensations to cover every one of them in order to win that jihad, so his ability to actually pull that trigger is limited. And Magwair knows that and has developed the confidence and responsibility to call the bluff - at least if it's direct enough.

But yeah, despite all that, the Church armies are getting spanked. Clyntahn's going to be ticked about that, and certainly will drop snide comments at Magwair, but he does probably realize that going after Magwair directly is not going to help. He may vent his spleen on, oh, innocent people piled up in concentration camps, or certain subordinates of Magwair's to undercut him and emphasize (to Magwair and the troops) that Magwair cannot protect them from the Inquisition.

Of course, that's going to make it even more clear to everyone in the Church and its service that it's all of you against the Inquisition much more than all of us against the heretics. It may even mean some Inquisitors doing all they can subtly to distance themselves from Clyntahn in the eyes of the thousands of honorable, disgusted, and well-armed men all around them. Or getting fragged if they don't.

JeffEngel wrote:

Clyntahn's probably well aware of his material to blackmail, threaten, or execute anyone who's participating in, sponsoring, using, or just appreciating all the innovations that are necessary to fight his jihad. On the other hand, he does know that he's got to keep writing dispensations to cover every one of them in order to win that jihad, so his ability to actually pull that trigger is limited.

Clyntahn has a number of character flaws contributing to errors in judgment. He was told numerous times how vital Siddarmark was to the ability of the Church of God Awaiting to meet the economic needs of the jihad. Despite that he launched the Sword of Schueler to punish Siddarmark of its violations of the boycott.

We saw how close Clyntahn came to killing Klairynce (?) simply had he wrongly estimated the production improvements he was instituting. It's almost certain that he'll have both him and Zhwaigwair killed after he wins the jihad.

I predict that he'll try to kill Diallyd in the next book despite the risks he'll take doing so. After all, he can kill someone and claim it's Diallyd, even if it's not. The Church of God Awaiting still have a monopoly on truth when it comes to the countries they still control. When the heretics claim Diallyd is still alive, Clyntahn merely needs to make the announcement that the heretics are lying yet again. And the countries that the Church of God Awaiting don't control don't matter.

~Tonto

Tonto Silerheels wrote:JeffEngel wrote:

Clyntahn's probably well aware of his material to blackmail, threaten, or execute anyone who's participating in, sponsoring, using, or just appreciating all the innovations that are necessary to fight his jihad. On the other hand, he does know that he's got to keep writing dispensations to cover every one of them in order to win that jihad, so his ability to actually pull that trigger is limited.

Clyntahn has a number of character flaws contributing to errors in judgment. He was told numerous times how vital Siddarmark was to the ability of the Church of God Awaiting to meet the economic needs of the jihad. Despite that he launched the Sword of Schueler to punish Siddarmark of its violations of the boycott.

We saw how close Clyntahn came to killing Klairynce (?) simply had he wrongly estimated the production improvements he was instituting. It's almost certain that he'll have both him and Zhwaigwair killed after he wins the jihad.

Granted, Cunning Clyntahn is often at war with Raging Clyntahn, and will lose some battles. But I think they have reached a compromise along the lines you have there: keep their own innovators til the jihad is won, purge them afterward.

It's not unlike St. Just with regard to the politically suspect flag officers in the Honorverse. But there, the politically suspect flag officers and their fellow travelers knew it and made their own pre-emptive plans. It could be that Duchairn and Magwair have some plans along those lines in case it looks (to Clyntahn) like the jihad has turned irrevocably in the Church's favor, but I don't see Clyntahn getting that apparent breathing space that St. Just got.

Even if Clyntahn gets deposed and Duchairn successfully sues for peace, Merlin's mission isn't a failure; both sides will know a second war is in the offing and will continue a build-up to that day, with predictable results for their tech levels and innovation. The COC will still be in charge of a large part of the population, and will encourage even more people to see their relationship with God as a personal one, without the arch angels as intermediaries. By the time the basement monkey wakes up, there will be an entire generation in the out islands that enjoys the higher standard of living innovation has bestowed and doesn't see the arch angels as necessary or desired in their religious preferences. The mainland population will be more religiously conservative, but they will have embraced innovation just as thoroughly add the out islands, and the genie will be well and truly out of the bottle. Worst case scenario, RFC stretches it over an extra book.

Tonto Silerheels wrote:JeffEngel wrote:

Clyntahn's probably well aware of his material to blackmail, threaten, or execute anyone who's participating in, sponsoring, using, or just appreciating all the innovations that are necessary to fight his jihad. On the other hand, he does know that he's got to keep writing dispensations to cover every one of them in order to win that jihad, so his ability to actually pull that trigger is limited.

Clyntahn has a number of character flaws contributing to errors in judgment. He was told numerous times how vital Siddarmark was to the ability of the Church of God Awaiting to meet the economic needs of the jihad. Despite that he launched the Sword of Schueler to punish Siddarmark of its violations of the boycott.

Some remarks: First off, from Clyntahn's perspective, the attack on Siddarmark was perfectly sensible, and breaches of the boycott were not his primary reason. As I read the situation in the Temple, he thereby effectively squashed the possibility of any internal opposition for the time being. And he came quite near to reaping in the profits by vanquishing Siddarmark. His underestimation of the EoC's capabilities as well as commitment is, for sure, a mistake but a rather rational one.
Regarding Maigwair feeling threatened by Clyntahn: I don't think that Clyntahn would like to move against Maigwair. He is, kind of like Durchairn, a valuable scapegoat for Clyntahn. Because, although we don't see it, there's bound to be quite some pressure from the more fanatic members of the Order of Schueler. And they are probably a more serious threat to his power base than all the others - at least on Clyntahn mind.
So, Clyntahn will likely refrain from any intimidating moves against both Maigwair (and Trynair). Both will know, though, that if they openly move against Clyntahn, he would remove them as heretics.
If it plays out this way, then the room for Duchairn to actually move against Clyntahn is very limited. In fact, I would suspect him of playing a long odds game. Because, there are several scenarios which might challenge Clyntahn's rule.
1. Defection of Desnair (and probably southern Harchong)
2. Defeat and capitulation of Dohlar and EoC armies attacking the Border States and the Temple Lands.
3. Massive defeat of CoGA northern armies in the field and quick overland advance of the EoC in the direction of Zion.
4. Loss of Zion to a EoC naval & marines attack.
5. Open rebellion within the Inquisition (likely from fanatics more extreme than Clyntahn).
6. Mutiny of the "Mighty Host" (in large numbers) and them going rogue in the Temple Lands (consider Maigwair dead in that scenario).
If Duchairn were to wait for such opportunities and moves before Clyntahn gets to him (cause he'll certainly try), he might pull something off.
Or, as said before, Duchairn is going to the basement.

I am not sure just what sort of trip wire Duchairn would need to actively enable his conspiracy...

But I do see Clyntahn's position as being a lot more fragile than he himself visualizes. Terror can carry you so far. But the more you have people afraid of you, the narrower your actual base of honest to goodness support becomes. When you get to the point when everyone would cheer your departure, your time is probably getting short.

Don

chrisd wrote:Who will put the briefcase under the conference table?
Captain Phandys? (or whatever his rank is by the time of the operation)

OK, he's currently Major Phandys.

The dangerous time will come when he has been promoted to Colonel - especially if he has lost an eye in fighting somewhere along the way.