Speculating about Duchairn's conspiracy

Since there's no textev that the Inquisition has a graduation ceremony for new inquisitors where they could be blown up or sniped at from a distance, I think this theory is a no go.

As has been mentioned, all of the military units in Zion and the Temple are under control of the Inquisition, which Clyntahn organized specifically to avoid being subject to a coup.

The very worst thing that could happen from Merlin's point of view would be an overthrow of the Go4 and reform of the CoGA, with a possible peace treaty with recognition of the CoC as an acknowledged church of God and the Archangels. As much as he hates it, Merlin needs the war to make Safeholdians think out of the box they're trapped in, and to break the power of the CoGA once and for all. Yet if Duchairn somehow managed to kill Clyntahn and Rayno, and squelch the Inquisition to the point he survived, seized control of the CoGA, and sued for peace, Cayleb and Stohnar would pretty much be forced to listen to his terms.

Cayleb might sail the Haarahld VIIs into Temple Bay and start unloading the troops if Merlin got wind of a coup in the offing, since the heads of the Go4 on pikes, as satisfying as it would be, won't advance Merlin's agenda. (The semaphore would warn the Temple that an ICN fleet was on the way, giving all the vicars a chance to flee.)

Yet even though Merlin has sworn that if he gets Clyntahn in range of a rifle, the fat fornicator will be a dead man, Rayno is much more competent and even more dangerous in his own way. He isn't nuts, and doesn't believe that he's God, but he does believe in the mission of the Inquisition, and that it should be the mailed fist to further the "cause of righteousness and to stamp out heresy wherever it can be found." He's the one who selects psychopaths as inquisitors, and things might actually be worse if he gets control and manages to implement his full agenda - which may end automatic approval of new weapons that mimic the effects of the heretics weapons. That would lead to losing the war, but I'm sure he would paint the EoC and Siddarmark as the bad guys persecuting Mother Church and violating the Proscriptions, and he could make those charges stick, even if he's forced to flee the Temple due to an EoC invasion of Zion.

As much as Merlin hates Clyntahn, he needs him. Duchairn poses a much greater threat to Merlin's mission to free mankind from the chains of the CoGA and return them to the stars to eliminate the Gbaba.

1. He's been Major Phandys for quite a while now.

2. The evidence for his status is _extremely_ circumstantial:
a: Vicar Hauwerd passed Duchairn _something_ that nearly scared his knickers off;
b: Phandys' involvement in the arrest of the Wylsynn brothers came about through a [if one is being polite] decidedly peculiar chain of circumstances - initiated by one Vicar Hauwerd;
c: what we've seen of the relationship between Duchairn and Phandys seems just a little more comfortable than most people think is warranted.

IOW, just barely enough evidence to give the wishful thinkers free rein and make the rest of us go "hmmmmm..."

jgnfld wrote:

shayvaan wrote:Duchairn has a man in the inquisition (Capt. Phandys). ...

Why are we so sure that Phandys is a mole? It makes a lot of sense, I aqgree. But I don't remember ever reading a clear statement to that effect. Did RFC/MWW say something at a con that I missed?

Not only will the coup shake up the temple, but imagine the implications it will have on the EoC war efforts. I know this has been discuss before, but if Duchairn is successful and overthrows his 'Dear Leader', and sues for peace, Merlin's efforts are going to be put to an end. I don't really see how in the terms for peace the EoC can keep the general public on their side and still promote religious freedom by having a stipulation that the temple be razed (I am assuming of course that whatever is under the temple will have to be destroyed and could cause the temple to either explode, implode, or simply crumble).

jgnfld wrote:

shayvaan wrote:Duchairn has a man in the inquisition (Capt. Phandys). ...

Why are we so sure that Phandys is a mole? It makes a lot of sense, I aqgree. But I don't remember ever reading a clear statement to that effect. Did RFC/MWW say something at a con that I missed?

No, there is no direct evidence that Phandys is a mole. There is considerable circumstantial evidence, and a number of posters (including myself) are convinced it almost certainly true. But we do not have clear evidence.

You make a good point--this is another forum speculation that is in danger of becoming an assumed "fact". Gotta be careful of our assumptions.

n7axw wrote:

However, there are only two groups within the temple that can actually apply physical force, the inquisition and the guard.

Maigwair and either Duchairn or Trynair were discussing the Harchongian troops held back in the border states. The ostensible reason was to give them adequate training with the new breech-loading rifles, but there was enough secrecy and circumlocution involved that I have to wonder if it was to make it possible to rapidly move them to Zion and defeat both the Inquisition and the Guard.

~Tonto

Tonto Silerheels wrote:n7axw wrote:

However, there are only two groups within the temple that can actually apply physical force, the inquisition and the guard.

Maigwair and either Duchairn or Trynair were discussing the Harchongian troops held back in the border states. The ostensible reason was to give them adequate training with the new breech-loading rifles, but there was enough secrecy and circumlocution involved that I have to wonder if it was to make it possible to rapidly move them to Zion and defeat both the Inquisition and the Guard.

~Tonto

I think it could all be accounted for by trying to frame it so that Clyntahn does not regard it as being soft on the jihad. They are, after all, not rushing everything forward as soon as possible and keeping it there no matter what.

That doesn't rule out other motivations, concerns, and considerations - including "how do we make sure this does not look like we're trying to launch a coup?" - but we don't need to suppose there are such to account for it.

chrisd wrote:Who will put the briefcase under the conference table?
Captain Phandys? (or whatever his rank is by the time of the operation)

What everyone is a assuming here is that Duchairn will be successful, while that is necessary for predictions of how a coup might happen. It does not follow that He Who Moves Towards Leafy Greens From Behind needs to write a 'successful' coup. Remember the brief case, as mentioned above. One of the charges failed to go off(I think that there wasn't time to arm it or something like that) and so Hitler survived. Thus, when Hitler made his continued state of 'not being dead' known, the coup failed.

I would also like to point out that the 20 July plot was not carried out only for humanitarian reasons. There are claims to that but a large part of the reason for the coup was to save German from defeat/get a peace treaty to stop the war. The conspirators were not pure a driven snow. The relevance is the massive number of people who want Clyntahn dead for purely selfish reasons. To list a few. The entire vicariate, the temple Guard(for Clyntahn's interference/incompetence), the holy orders and his own clerks who are probably afraid he will kill them in a apoplectic fit.

n7axw wrote:In order to moderate the effects of Snippet Deficit Syndrome, I think we need a few new threads around here to distract us and preoccupy our minds while we wait for next snippet. One subject I thought would be fascinating would be to speculate on how Duchairn brings it off in the end... Does he survive the conspiracy? Is Nynian involved? Does he bring in Magwair to supply the necessary force to counter the inquisition? What will be the trip wire that puts the plot into action? Is Clyntahn killed by cloak and dagger assassination? How do the rest of the vicars react? If Duchairn succeeds, does it bring peace any closer? What happens to the inquisition in a contest of power between it and the guard?

As you can see, the questions are endless... So what do you think? Speculate away...

Don

So far everyone else has either gone with he survives or has dived into the weeds of minor points, I OTOH think he does not survive and here is why:

For the majority of the time we have seen the church from the perspective of far away lands and their rulers and people. Now recently we are starting to get the perspective of the people that live closest to the church, the citizens of Zion and from what we have seen so far it is a much different view than those that are temple loyalists in places like Charis.

In Zion they see how the Vicars and the Group of Four lives and we see that there is a good number of very poor people living in bad conditions is Zion it self. We know this because these are the people that Duchairn tries to save every winter, the ones that freeze and starve to death. So to those ordinary peasants there is the good face Duchairn and the bad face Clyntahn. When the AoG finally gets kicked out of Siddarmark and Harchong goes up in flames (Harchong peasant soldiers with guns...) Clyntahn is going to blame Duchairn and I think that will be what gets Duchairn killed. When that happens the people of Zion will rise up and overthrow Clyntahn and Magwair will throw in with the people knowing he is next on the kill list for Clyntahn. This both gets rid of the Group of Four, gives you a negotiated settlement and will keep the original church in place as RFC has been pointing to.

I believe that, in order to find what may happen regarding Duchairn's little plot, we have first to determine his exact objectives and motivations. Remember that in the first books, while he was more and more confident that Clynthans actions were making the situation worse (beside being morally wrong), he supported him at least partially by the deep conviction that the Church of Charis was, in its most basic foundations, wrong.

So the question is: did he become such a reformist that he now embraces the Church of Charis teachings, or does he still believe in the CoGA. And if so, is he willing to have two Church on Safehold, or is he planning to go on with the war, with just the modification that it would not be a clynthan's style kind of war (basically, no more programmed starving, torture, and mass murder of civilian, "just" armies fighting each others).

I believe that the answers to those questions will determine what he is planning to do, and how to do it.
People that might agree with him to overthrow Clynthan may disagree to support any kind of peace with the church of Charis. So Duchairns means and allies will most certainly depends on its ultimate goal, about which we know close to nothing, except that it most certainly includes something rather unpleasant destined to Clynthan.

But if his goal is now to topple down completely the CoGA (and thus, basically, aligning himself with the CoC), he is already in a position that allows him to bring considerable pain to the CoGA without making any sort of move, just taking some "management decisions" over others. In fact, some of the decisions that have been taken lastly may very well go in that direction, it's just that I do not know enough about it to be sure that it is indeed the case, or the fact that it was "the least evil" for the CoGA.
I'm speaking about one in which he explains that he has to rise the tithes and the taxes on a serie of things, adding that it may very well push some of the weakest business to full bankruptcy. This is the sort of decision that, while bringing money now, may very well make it so that no money will be available later (either because some of those business will indeed fail, or because nobles and all will put their money in an HSBC account). Which would be a very good trick: he brings to Clynthan the money he asked for his war now, while making sure that this will seriously weaken an otherwise very good income. And, while doing so, constantly warning Clynthan that it is going to cost them in the end, so that when the money stop coming, he could tell to Clynthan: "I warned you, but you did not listen to me". Thus making it Clynthan's fault, and totally covering himself; especially since it is in the nature of Clynthan to go for the easy and immediate solution, especially if he is warned against it. He may even do it in part just for that reason.

Another decision that intrigues me (but it has been a few month since I re-re-re-re-read the safehold books, so I may have a few things wrong) is the decision to move hundreds of thousands of temple loyalist civilian out of Siddarmark all the way to Harchong.

Considering the difference between the very free Siddarmark society and the close-to-slavery state of most of the Harchongese population, tension will most inevitably rise. Serfs may try to take example on them, or the siddarmakians themselves may rise if the nobles try to impose serfdom on them. Politically and socially, this is a very instable situation for the CoGA.

OlorinNight wrote:I believe that, in order to find what may happen regarding Duchairn's little plot, we have first to determine his exact objectives and motivations. [...]
So the question is: did he become such a reformist that he now embraces the Church of Charis teachings, or does he still believe in the CoGA. [...]

You're right, of course, that Duchairn's motivation is essential, but RFC hasn't given and won't give us the insight to that before the fact.
Speculating, I don't see Duchairn as voluntary agent for the CoC nor even in the business of actively sabotaging the jihad. What he and Maigwair are - so far - trying to do is salvaging the mess Clyntahn's misdirection has created.
Now, as we're speculating about a conspiracy of Duchairn and its only goal could be an overthrow of Clyntahn, there are, I think, some further issues to take into account. Starting point is of course an alliance with Maigwair.
- In order to move against Clyntahn, you need control of the Grand Vicar, and probably Trynair. As long as Trynair is an active player, he'll probably side with Clyntahn unless his actions are already immaterial. And if Clyntahn were to have control of the Grand Vicar, any action against the Inquisition would probably be doomed to fail.
- Overtrowing Clyntahn is only worthwile, if his Inquisitors are neutralized. In addition, the whole order of Schueler has to be neutralized as well. That is a tremendous task. It needs either massive numbers of dedicated officers and troops (which Maigwair might be able to build, but probably does not have, yet) or another large organization of conspirators (and the SSK would probably be way to small).
- Unfortunately, the Inquisition is paranoid enough to look for just such a thing, and it should be rather good at sniffing out such plans. Just think of the fate of the Circle.
In summary, any significant action against the primacy of the Inquisition by Duchairn meets formidable obstacles. He probably knows it and is not willing to sacrifice his influence just for killing Clyntahn. If he acts, it will only be if there were several additional major defeats in the field, the EoC is on the advance in the direction of Zion, and there is already widespread discontent with both Clyntahn and the Order of Schueler.
Or RFC does something sneaky...
Speaking of which, we don't now what kind of hope was mentioned in the letter of Hauwerd Wylsynn. It might well be that it's related to the return of the Archangels and what Durchairn really is aiming for is "waking the sleepers".