Speculating about Duchairn's conspiracy

In order to moderate the effects of Snippet Deficit Syndrome, I think we need a few new threads around here to distract us and preoccupy our minds while we wait for next snippet. One subject I thought would be fascinating would be to speculate on how Duchairn brings it off in the end... Does he survive the conspiracy? Is Nynian involved? Does he bring in Magwair to supply the necessary force to counter the inquisition? What will be the trip wire that puts the plot into action? Is Clyntahn killed by cloak and dagger assassination? How do the rest of the vicars react? If Duchairn succeeds, does it bring peace any closer? What happens to the inquisition in a contest of power between it and the guard?

As you can see, the questions are endless... So what do you think? Speculate away...

Don

Well, that one subject has resurfaced a dozen times already, hasn't it? But speculating is fun, so let's speculate.

If one plans a coup d'etat in the Temple, taking Inquisition out is something of a must. Unless Duchairn wants to try mass poisoning (would this actually be possible?), the only people around capable of doing this are the Temple Guard. So I'd say having Magwair as a new BFF must've been a godsend for Duchairn and Captain General will be part of whatever will happen. The "start" signal for the coup could be Clyntahn arresting (or trying to arrest) Duchairn.

As to Nynian, I doubt much happens in Zion without her knowledge, so even if Duchairn didn't bring her into his conspiracy, she still knows that something is up. Her Mysterious Trip To Zion might be connected to this and she might be assisting Duchairn in his endeavor, even if he's not aware of it. In fact, it might be safer for SSK and Hand of Kau-Yung if he didn't know.

It would be nice to see Clyntahn facing trial - perhaps breaking down in front of the jury - but cloak and dagger are a possibility as well. Perhaps poison that would look like heart attack? He sure looks and acts like a prime heart-attack-victim material.

And yes, I do believe that with Duchairn at helm, Temple would try to sue for peace - shaky as it would be, but peace. Vicars wouldn't oppose it - I mean, oppose the guy who offed Clyntahn? That is, of course, if Duchairn survives, because if he doesn't, then Temple's in for a very chaotic future.

Also, that's probably the longest post I've written so far. Yay for the new record

n7axw wrote:In order to moderate the effects of Snippet Deficit Syndrome, I think we need a few new threads around here to distract us and preoccupy our minds while we wait for next snippet. One subject I thought would be fascinating would be to speculate on how Duchairn brings it off in the end... Does he survive the conspiracy? Is Nynian involved? Does he bring in Magwair to supply the necessary force to counter the inquisition? What will be the trip wire that puts the plot into action? Is Clyntahn killed by cloak and dagger assassination? How do the rest of the vicars react? If Duchairn succeeds, does it bring peace any closer? What happens to the inquisition in a contest of power between it and the guard?

As you can see, the questions are endless... So what do you think? Speculate away...

Don

Yes, the withdrawal does bite.
With regard to Rhobair Duchairn, we should first explore his objectives.
1. Get rid of Clyntahn and his corruption.
2. Restore the CoGA to Langhorne's Vision as the guidining light of Man on Safehold.
3. Maintain the primacy of the vicariate.

The interesting bit is of course the concessions he might consider making on the items 2 and 3....

Now, the objectives of his potential allies in the Go4 are somewhat different. Maigwair is probably less interested in Clyntahn's corruption and more interested in his own survival and the primacy of the vicarate. Trynair is interested in his own power and the primacy of the vicariate. If there is a coalition against Clyntahn in the CoGA, it would not be stable. Without an option to salvage the situation with the EoC, there's not necessarily a platform against the might of the Inquisition. Moreover, Rhobair probably realizes that if Clyntahn is removed by assassination, Rayno'll take over. Rayno on the helm (and Rhobair and his allies dead) is probably no significant improvement for Rhobair.

Now, the connections of Rhobair to the Circle are equally interesting. He might actually agree with its goals nowadays. The simmering dissent of vicariate families against Clyntahn might give him some support, but by far not enough to challenge the might of the Inquisition. And Rhobair knows it. And his good standing with the civilians (and particularly the poor) in the Temple Lands is equally insufficient as long as there are no major popular uprisings.

Since I don't see that Trynair might decide to chance his own life in a rebellion against Clyntahn, Rhobair's only option would lie with Maigwair. Unfortunately, I see Maigwair only willing to act against Clyntahn if he's cornered or if he sees no other alternative to salvage something from the CoGA after he realizes the war is lost. The latter situation is quite late, the former open to speculation.

From the previous discussion, I conclude
1. Rhobair would have to have a firm understanding with Maigwair in order to move against Clyntahn.
2. Maigwair would need to feel cornered by Clyntahn and fear for his life.
3. Both would need to think that in toppling Clyntahn and the Inquisition lies a reasonable chance of preventing a total and utter defeat of the CoGA.

Hi Anwi et.al.,

I don't know that it's been possible to get a firm fix on Magwair at this point. For one thing, in the last couple of books he has been a moving target, evolving from someone who was licking Clyntahn's boots to being a confident, capable individual in his own right. If he was pursuaded that Clyntahn's antics were threatening the Jihad, he might very well throw in with Duchairn to overthrow him.

If I were looking to do that, I would identify some reliable officers in the guard, arrange for them to desert their units with as many of their men as possible, reform as an intendant free unit, march on Zion, arrest any member of the inquisition I encountered, march right into the temple and either kill Clyntahn and Rayno or at least put them under arrest.

Isolate the guard from the inquisitors and it's a much more potent force than the inquisition. My little scheme would be heavily dependent on surprise.

Don

The environment of the Temple and the power structure of the Temple has been so poisoned that any move by any faction against Clyntahn will result in a bloodbath. No faction will trust another and all will fight for power simply to protect themselves. That is the legacy the group of four has left the church.

n7axw wrote:Hi Anwi et.al.,

I don't know that it's been possible to get a firm fix on Magwair at this point. For one thing, in the last couple of books he has been a moving target, evolving from someone who was licking Clyntahn's boots to being a confident, capable individual in his own right. If he was pursuaded that Clyntahn's antics were threatening the Jihad, he might very well throw in with Duchairn to overthrow him.

If I were looking to do that, I would identify some reliable officers in the guard, arrange for them to desert their units with as many of their men as possible, reform as an intendant free unit, march on Zion, arrest any member of the inquisition I encountered, march right into the temple and either kill Clyntahn and Rayno or at least put them under arrest.

Isolate the guard from the inquisitors and it's a much more potent force than the inquisition. My little scheme would be heavily dependent on surprise.

Don

Who will put the briefcase under the conference table?
Captain Phandys? (or whatever his rank is by the time of the operation)

Tim wrote:The environment of the Temple and the power structure of the Temple has been so poisoned that any move by any faction against Clyntahn will result in a bloodbath. No faction will trust another and all will fight for power simply to protect themselves. That is the legacy the group of four has left the church.

n7axw wrote:Hi Anwi et.al.,

I don't know that it's been possible to get a firm fix on Magwair at this point. For one thing, in the last couple of books he has been a moving target, evolving from someone who was licking Clyntahn's boots to being a confident, capable individual in his own right. If he was pursuaded that Clyntahn's antics were threatening the Jihad, he might very well throw in with Duchairn to overthrow him.

If I were looking to do that, I would identify some reliable officers in the guard, arrange for them to desert their units with as many of their men as possible, reform as an intendant free unit, march on Zion, arrest any member of the inquisition I encountered, march right into the temple and either kill Clyntahn and Rayno or at least put them under arrest.

Isolate the guard from the inquisitors and it's a much more potent force than the inquisition. My little scheme would be heavily dependent on surprise.

Don

Hi Tim,

You've certainly nailed it as far as the factions within the temple. However, there are only two groups within the temple that can actually apply physical force, the inquisition and the guard. The guard is not present in force at the moment, but should they be introduced in even modest numbers, things could get dicey for the inquisition, especially if could be arranged by surprise.

Another group that shouldn't be overlooked is Nynians wet work teams. I don't know what the possibilities are there. But they have been busy reducing the number of vicars. Their full capabilities could turn out to be a very nasty surprise for someone, depending on how the story is told.

Don

Duchairn has a man in the inquisition (Capt. Phandys). He has the support (for now) of Magwair (who according to his own thoughts is getting less and less enamored with Clyntahn. He has bought himself quite a bit of good will from the poor of Zion and his plan (whatever it is) is based on principles that Clyntahn can't even recognize, let alone compensate for.

On the other side of the ledger, Clyntahn has the coercive power of the inquisition, multiple spies all over the place (undercover agents inquisitor and other informants) and the only significant armed forces in Zion and and Port Harbor are under his control.

In order for Duchairn to win, the power of the inquisition must be broken or subverted (at least locally).

The most obvious time is when the EoC is storming Port Harbor and Duchairn and Magwair getting Clyntahn while he is distracted with dealing with that.

Another possibility would be an internal revolt by the inquisition itself if Dialydd Mab makes a few more appearances

Be interesting to see how MWW handles it

One possible intersting scenario is the next "graduating class" of intendants. I would imagine it as a public specticle with all of Zion "invited" to see all the new intendants who will soon go to cleanse the land of heretics. Obviously, there will be a lot of security, and the Temple guard will be critical in handling it.

Sounds like an opportunity for Lewisite, maybe inside some candles for example. If Nynian can obtain some from Merlin, let alone other substances, then her people could clean out the new class, some of the cadre, and maybe even Clytahn or his staff. And in the confusion, Magwere could bring in the coincidentally nearby Harchongese forces, under AoG officers, to "stabilize" the situation. And when he discovers a plot by other Schulerites, he would naturally have to arrest all of them until he discovers the truth.

And since the Inquisition knows how much gunpowder would be needed as a threat, the lessor amounts, density, and feel of the other materials would show they aren't dangerous.

As long as the Temple's sensors aren't set off, I think it could work. I am assuming a large ceremony outside the temple, maybe where the Heretics are killed.

While Merlin is against assassination in general, I could see him making an exception in this case. With even a current generation (Earth, 21st Century) sniper rifle, I would imagine a PICA could hit an explosive target, or Clytahn, at a mile range.

One other thought in this vein... Give Nynian's agents smokeless powder weapons with sound suppressors/silencers. OWL and Nahrmon could have fun making them disguised in various ways along the lines of the resistance during WW II.

Comments?

-- Bob G

shayvaan wrote:Duchairn has a man in the inquisition (Capt. Phandys). ...

Why are we so sure that Phandys is a mole? It makes a lot of sense, I aqgree. But I don't remember ever reading a clear statement to that effect. Did RFC/MWW say something at a con that I missed?