The United Kingdom

In a new piece of interesting news, the UK may have a rather unique type of government come the next election. Even if Labour gets less seats than the Tories, they could still end up ruling.
How?
Coalition.
Again.
The Lib-Dems have discovered that by being in power, they are therefore held accountable for everything that they say and do. With their natural inclinations being left-wing and their ability to see the big picture... limited, it's actually amazing that the current government has held together as long as it has.
Labour are going to be effectively wiped out in Scotland, but the SNP has already said that it will happily prop up a Labour government in exchange for a huge increase in money for Scotland (as if they don't already get considerably more per head of population) and enough devolution to make Scotland a de-fact independent country.
So unless the Tories get a total majority, we are looking at a Labour/Lib-Dem/SNP government. Or in other words, Union Puppet/Gasbag/Splitter.

Oh god, they're gonna wreck our economy worse than the Greek government screwed theirs...

Michael Everett wrote:In a new piece of interesting news, the UK may have a rather unique type of government come the next election. Even if Labour gets less seats than the Tories, they could still end up ruling.
How?
Coalition.
Again.
The Lib-Dems have discovered that by being in power, they are therefore held accountable for everything that they say and do. With their natural inclinations being left-wing and their ability to see the big picture... limited, it's actually amazing that the current government has held together as long as it has.
Labour are going to be effectively wiped out in Scotland, but the SNP has already said that it will happily prop up a Labour government in exchange for a huge increase in money for Scotland (as if they don't already get considerably more per head of population) and enough devolution to make Scotland a de-fact independent country.
So unless the Tories get a total majority, we are looking at a Labour/Lib-Dem/SNP government. Or in other words, Union Puppet/Gasbag/Splitter.

Oh god, they're gonna wreck our economy worse than the Greek government screwed theirs...

That's not all. It's being called the most unpredictable UK general election ever, even after 2010 produced a hung parliament with the Lib Dems negotiating with both Labour and the Tories. The difference is negotiations are expected to take place between more participants, which inevitably extends the time it'll take for the incumbent PM or a new one to form a government.

Labour-SNP only seems like the most likely one now, but coalitions consisting of Tory-UKIP, Tory-Lib again, Tory-UKIP-DUP and even Tory-Labour has been pitched as possible, along with the possible coalition partners for Labour(SNP, Plaid Cymru, Greens, Lib Dems) and combinations thereof.

IMO, it's still too early to predict anything. Preliminary campaigning may have begun, but I suspect the election will be most strongly influenced by the TV debates. The general expectation is there will be a coalition of some type, but personally I think one of the big two will scrape up a majority when votes bleeding to Greens/UKIP causes marginal seats to change hands.

Hence this.

Any human political dynamic is complex so there are no guarantees. That said we have found that minority governments can be effective if people are well intentioned. All decisions are vetted thoroughly, minority points of view are included, and the end result tends to be more pragmatic than ideological

Another advantage is that it does inhibit grandiose schemes, as with the Hippocratic Oath, first commandment is to "Do no harm".

I wonder what the national turn out will be? There are already predictions that said turn out will be higher in Scotland than elsewhere.

Historically, the Tories have been better at handling the economy, but the current administration seem to be succumbing to pure ideology rather than taking a more balanced view of the needs of the whole country rather than the South East and their core vote in the Home Counties.

Personally, the more real power that goes to Holyrood, the more accountable it becomes. I believe that has been the long term plan of both the Conservatives and the Whitehall bureaucracy, hence the formers stance on the Smith Commission on extra powers.

If it injects a bit of fiscal realism into the political process up here, the better, IMHO. It would also have the advantage of stopping, or at least reducing, the "Scottish Subsidy Junky" meme.

Although it won't do anything with regards to Wales and Northern Ireland.

Mike.

Considering the current political situation in the UK, I thought I'd bring up something which may well have an effect on this years General Election, at least in Scotland.

As may or may not be known, Scotland is regarded as the "Sick Man of Europe", with high levels of alcohol and substance abuse, mental ill-health, obesity (currently stabilised), bad diet, social deprivation and lower life expectancy than in other areas of the UK:

http://www.gcph.co.uk/assets/0000/4022/Scottish_excess_mortality_-_commentaries_and_synthesis.pdf

http://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC3394776/

http://www.scotpho.org.uk/comparative-health/excess-mortality-in-scotland-and-glasgow

Bleak reading, eh?

However, although these factors exist across Scotland, they are particularly acute in Glasgow, which has a "drag" effect on the figures for the whole country:

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Glasgow_effect

http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/magazine-27309446

These are perhaps two of the better articles I've read; have a read of the comments in both, it'll help get a better feel for the problem:

http://www.theguardian.com/society/2012/nov/06/mystery-glasgow-health-problems

http://www.theguardian.com/uk-news/2015/feb/08/poor-glasgow-safe-seat-cranhill-labour-snp-election-voters

Now for the main thrust of the thread:

Glasgow has the largest population of all of Scotland's urban centers (2.3 million including the surrounding conurbations, or roughly 41% of Scotland's population as of 2011) with the highest density, 3,395 people per Km2. It's also the UK Labour Party's Scottish Bastion, with knock on effects in UK General Elections.

However, as Labour regarded Scotland as a safe power base, it came to regard it as it's own personal fiefdom. Corruption and nepotism have abounded in the Scottish branch of the Party, with power being pursued for it's own sake. Rather like Haven's Legislaturalists, they've created a large urban underclass, mostly unemployed, mostly loyal Socialists, which have had a massive skewing effect on the political landscape in Scotland and for the UK as a whole.

Unfortunately for Glasgow, it's allegiance to Labour has been catastrophic. In combination with the Conservative Party's carelessness when dealing with Scotland's de-industrialisation (exacerbated by Labours own mishandling coupled with Management and Union stupidity and intransigence during that process - all four factors contributed) it's now a city with a large population and not enough jobs for all of them. Then add in that those who live in the most deprived areas have the lowest educational attainment levels, making them unemployable in a modern economy. It's local authority, Glasgow City Council, is also nicknamed the "George Square Politburo" and the term "Glasgow Labour" is synonymous with corruption (this is the reason I utterly despise Labour).

In short, Glasgow is a very disappointed and angry city. Now, it's also very, very angry with Labour. Whether or not Glasgow and the rest of the Western Central Belt throw Labour out on it's ear will only be found out come May, but the effect on the UK's political landscape may well be profound.

Considering how well Scottish Labour have demonised the "Evil" Tories to the point of being unelectable (Your a Tory? You need your head examined!), Labour's stupidity and shortsightedness have broken the United Kingdom, perhaps irrecoverably.

Finally, I thought I'd add this:

http://www.conservativehome.com/platform/2015/02/brian-monteith-scottish-labour-will-promise-a-spending-binge-the-rest-of-the-uk-would-pay-for.html

This General Election is going to be ill tempered and vicious, with plenty of nationalist finger pointing, both English and Scottish.

Mike.

Humorously, Labour have tried to paint the Tory party as being the tax-avoiders party, but it would seem that Ed Milliband has been dodging property and inheritance tax while a large minority of Labour MPs have also been trying to avoid paying tax.

Both the Sunday Telegraph and the Sunday Times have been pointing out the hypocrisy involved, and they've been pursuing unrelated stories!

Ooops?

Hardly surprising really. Considering that most of the current crop of MP's have the same background, regardless of political persuasion, how could it be anything else?

I'm a little fed up with seeing prospective MP's (and MSP,s it has to be said) "parachuted" in to a constituency by X Party's hierarchy, bypassing good local candidates.

Mike.

Michael Riddell wrote:Hardly surprising really. Considering that most of the current crop of MP's have the same background, regardless of political persuasion, how could it be anything else?

I'm a little fed up with seeing prospective MP's (and MSP,s it has to be said) "parachuted" in to a constituency by X Party's hierarchy, bypassing good local candidates.

Mike.

Ignorant American Question.

What is a MSP?

Thanks in Advance,
T2M

thinkstoomuch wrote:Ignorant American Question.

What is a MSP?

Thanks in Advance,
T2M

MSP = Member of the Scottish Parliament, AKA Holyrood.

There's also:

AM = Assembly Member (National Assembly for Wales, Cardiff),

MLA = Members of the Legislative Assembly (Northern Ireland Assembly, Stormont, Belfast).

You'll note that England does not have a devolved assembly or parliament. Matters pertaining to England fall under the auspices of the UK Parliament at Westminster. Thus Members of Parliament from Scotland, Wales and Northern Ireland can vote on legislation which affects England. It's called the "West Lothian Question" after the constituency of the Scottish MP who highlighted the problem caused by asymmetrical devolution as is currently the case in the UK.

Unpicking the problem will very complex, to put it mildly, whilst retaining the integrity of the United Kingdom. A full federal structure would work best, but although than the Liberal Democrats, UKIP and the SNP (their constitutional Plan "B", I gather) favour it, neither of the two established party's has shown any interest in either federalism or an English parliament as it's a threat to their powerbases.

Mike.

Michael Riddell wrote:You'll note that England does not have a devolved assembly or parliament. Matters pertaining to England fall under the auspices of the UK Parliament at Westminster. Thus Members of Parliament from Scotland, Wales and Northern Ireland can vote on legislation which affects England. It's called the "West Lothian Question" after the constituency of the Scottish MP who highlighted the problem caused by asymmetrical devolution as is currently the case in the UK.

Unpicking the problem will very complex, to put it mildly, whilst retaining the integrity of the United Kingdom. A full federal structure would work best, but although than the Liberal Democrats, UKIP and the SNP (their constitutional Plan "B", I gather) favour it, neither of the two established party's has shown any interest in either federalism or an English parliament as it's a threat to their powerbases.

Mike.

Do the English even want a devolved parliament? http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Devolved_E ... nion_polls

Whenever English Votes for English Laws - a proposed solution to the West Lothian Question which excludes MPs representing a region with devolved powers from voting upon those issues - is included as an option, it immediately seizes the majority from a devolved English parliament, except in a 2007 poll when it split the vote and gave the status quo a 'majority' of 32%.

In principle, I think EVEL would be a reasonable compromise, given that creating a devolved parliament costs a great deal of money and create another layer of politicians. In practice, there might be issues over how it's decided whether a matter before the Commons applies only to England, how much of the domino effect should be taken into account and so on.

Personally, however, I think it's a missed opportunity to deal with the House of Lords, the vast majority of which are life peers appointed by a sitting government, occasionally in exchange for cash(A £100k "donation" could be repaid after one year, due to a £300-a-day expenses allowance!). We could get rid of the thing and replace it with a second type of MPs, elected by proportional representation to represent various regions within the UK. They could either sit in the second chamber or merge with the Commons(a la the Holyrood parliament) and the government might or might not have to depend upon their confidence.

As Mike said, it'd be a threat to the powerbases of the main two parties. Just look at what devolving a Scottish parliament has done to the Labour Party in Scotland! The last thing the Tories and Labour need with their combined support falling below two-thirds is a proportional representation system.