HFQ Offical Snippet #18

Changing the topic slightly, I'm wondering how the CoGA's infrastructure is standing up to having to fund the armies.

Economics is not a strong subject for me, but I can't help wondering how close the Gang of Four is to running out of money. They were having problems early on with a drastic drop in tithing to the CoGA, and they must be having to invest heavily in all sorts of armaments and methods of making them.

Also, their communications are going to hit the buffers very soon, when the ironclads cut off their remaining sea routes.

Finally, how much food have they got? Harchongese agriculture seems to be extremely labour-intensive, and the more of the serfs get drafted into the army, the fewer are going to be available to raise crops. And they've lost access to Siddarmark's breadbasket.

take a good look at the maps.

specifically, look at what's _not_ there. to whit, the Bedard and Langhorne canals. or _any_ major road.

if Pei Shan-Wei didn't think taking the southern route was feasible for her canal-builders when the ruler-on-the-map approach suggests that it would have made at least as much sense to run the Bedard right through to the upper Daivyn as to use the actual route, there are some pretty serious impediments hiding in that blank space. it needn't be terrain, although i'm betting that if the easy way round included at least one 400'-deep cut in the equally blank space of Sardahn the terrain is nothing to take lightly. canals do need water, and in particular they need a lot of it at or near the height of land, so a high, dry plateau is going to be just as big an issue as rough ground. in fact, actually a harder one for the 'archangels' to deal with.

the fact that the high roads are also conspicuous by their absence in Jhurlahnk and Faralas, despite the comprehensive network shown paralleling the canals, would also indicate that this is a difficult area to move through. taken by themselves, of course, the roads are rather less than conclusive, but if they aren't simply missing because Himself didn't bother to draw in something he knows is there then the region must be, at best, rather less populated even than the South March. combined with the canal routes, it suggests to me that this is seriously bad ground to be moving a major army that marches on its stomach through. there doesn't appear to be an adequate transportation route to start with, and i wouldn't even want to think about having to drag every drop of water along

given the weather conditions at Camp 4, which you will recall was on the Bedard in Gwynt, the Host isn't likely to be able to get on the road before late April or early May to begin with. i'd bet against Maigwair being able to send any of it straight east from the Bedard even if he wanted to [and i'm even more dubious about the reception the idea would get from Vicar Zhaspahr ]

lyonheart wrote:Hi JMSeeley,

Kudos for the excellent analysis!

I suspect Symkyn will deal with Kaitswyrth quite handily, but taking Dairnyth prevents supplying any MHoGatA sub army [quasi 'army group center'] advancing from Gwynt across Doman and Jhurlahnk to the Charayn Canal, although I've suggested that it could mean being easily destroyed by other ironclads on the Daivyn river etc.

So this spring could be quite portentous for how the summer campaigns develop.

L

jmseeley wrote:
If Dohlar loses Evrytyn, are there any forces left to keep Alliance forces from rolling all the way to Dairnyth? If I recall, that's currently Kaitswyrth's main supply port, at least until more of the Northern canal system is repaired. Hanth doesn't have enough forces to go all the way, but Eastshare probably does. That could logistically kneecap the AoG in Cliff Peak and Westmarch.

jms

Peter2 wrote:Changing the topic slightly, I'm wondering how the CoGA's infrastructure is standing up to having to fund the armies.

Economics is not a strong subject for me, but I can't help wondering how close the Gang of Four is to running out of money. They were having problems early on with a drastic drop in tithing to the CoGA, and they must be having to invest heavily in all sorts of armaments and methods of making them.

Also, their communications are going to hit the buffers very soon, when the ironclads cut off their remaining sea routes.

Finally, how much food have they got? Harchongese agriculture seems to be extremely labour-intensive, and the more of the serfs get drafted into the army, the fewer are going to be available to raise crops. And they've lost access to Siddarmark's breadbasket.

Good question for which I don't have a good answer. We know that the COGA has been having increasing difficulty financing its Jihad. Duchairin has been increasing taxes and taking other extraordinary measures with at least some success.

There doesn't seem to be any difficulty supplying their armies so far eccept the struggle with interrupted supply routes in Wyrsham's case and with the Army of Shiloh where the Desnarians shot themselves in the foot and then found their supply route cut off.

Then we have the issue of inadequate winter clothing for Wyrsham's army because they didn't anticipate being stopped before reaching the more mellow climes of Old Province in Eastern Siddarmark.

Finally coal has been an issue with access to Glacierhart's mines denied the COGA. They are developing new sourses in Harchong, but that remains a work in progress.

Overall, I think that this can be summarised by saying the the COGA has been experiencing some difficulties, but still is in the game.

Don

Peter2 wrote:Changing the topic slightly, I'm wondering how the CoGA's infrastructure is standing up to having to fund the armies.

Economics is not a strong subject for me, but I can't help wondering how close the Gang of Four is to running out of money.

Money is probably the least of their problems (Duchairn might disagree), although probably the most immediate. If I understand Duchairn statements correctly, the CoGA is heading for bankruptcy, since they're issuing credit letters for income they don't have and they're effectively pawning their holdings. However, as long as Clyntahn can re-inforce the message to keep serving the CoGA as if one were being paid by her, there's no problem - and I guess Clyntahn has realized it.
With respect to resources, well Harchong seems to be a rather bottomless resource of manpower and (potentially) food. Moreover, the CoGA is somehow losing mounths to feed at a rather alarming rate, so I don't see a famine in Haven.
I think the dangers are twofold: If major players are loosing trust in the CoGA's ability to either hold their ground (even lackwits might now figure that an outright win of the CoGA is impossible on the short term) or in the CoGA's ability to pay up for its debts, then it'll get interesting.
Moreover, there's bound to be factionalism in the CoGA and in its allied realms, if the direction of the jihad is seen as failing. This might simply rip apart realms like Desnair or Harchong within one or two years. And both the inquisition as well as the traditional princely families of the CoGA might get unrestive quite soon.
In such a situation, the first major shock can trigger unforeseen events. That shock could be loosing the "Mighty Host" in a few battles. But it also could be a failure of the CoGA to pay up to its debts (validating Durchairn...).
Ceterum censeo syndroma nos excerptorum abstentiae affici.

anwi wrote:
Money is probably the least of their problems (Duchairn might disagree), although probably the most immediate. If I understand Duchairn statements correctly, the CoGA is heading for bankruptcy, since they're issuing credit letters for income they don't have and they're effectively pawning their holdings. However, as long as Clyntahn can re-inforce the message to keep serving the CoGA as if one were being paid by her, there's no problem - and I guess Clyntahn has realized it.
With respect to resources, well Harchong seems to be a rather bottomless resource of manpower and (potentially) food. Moreover, the CoGA is somehow losing mounths to feed at a rather alarming rate, so I don't see a famine in Haven.
I think the dangers are twofold: If major players are loosing trust in the CoGA's ability to either hold their ground (even lackwits might now figure that an outright win of the CoGA is impossible on the short term) or in the CoGA's ability to pay up for its debts, then it'll get interesting.
Moreover, there's bound to be factionalism in the CoGA and in its allied realms, if the direction of the jihad is seen as failing. This might simply rip apart realms like Desnair or Harchong within one or two years. And both the inquisition as well as the traditional princely families of the CoGA might get unrestive quite soon.
In such a situation, the first major shock can trigger unforeseen events. That shock could be loosing the "Mighty Host" in a few battles. But it also could be a failure of the CoGA to pay up to its debts (validating Durchairn...).
Ceterum censeo syndroma nos excerptorum abstentiae affici.

I think if the Harchong army was largely if not entirely impressed from only a few areas those areas may have trouble planting and harvesting crops for a few years. Depending on which source you read Germany was in famine in 1918 due to either a labor shortage or lack of fertilizer. Canada, US, and Australia were also suffering from a lack of farm labor in 1944, although they solved it by offering POWs the choice of working on farms with light (by some accounts none) supervision, or sitting in camps under tighter supervision.

Hi JeffEngel,

This post is getting way too long!

I've detailed my thoughts on Silkiah's liberation years ago on previous threads, but we still don't know that much, not even the Grand Duke's name.

However he's been evidently tolerant of reformists besides the 'smuggling' that has benefited Silkiah's economy, and despite the inquisition's crackdown, there's been no word of eliminating or replacing him either, which implies he managed the above through sheer ignorance or incompetence since he or his father was appointed 27-28 years ago in 969 YoG.

It may be he's in as much control of Silkiah as the Harchong emperor is of that empire, so its his ministers that actually have quietly supported these policies, covered by the corruption that's so systemic of the continental nations, too busy with their ill gotten gains to notice or care about any reformist rumblings that are discrete to start with.

OTOH, he might be popular because he ruled with such a wise light hand which the people know could have been far worse, given what they see in Desnar and Dohlar etc.

His ministers may reflect that attitude, and the local bishops attend to their flocks that the inquisition may not have been much needed or called upon in Silkiah before the SoS.

Your point regarding the probability of treasury agents outnumbering the actual inquisitors seems quite possible, as does their attitude or approach to their job to echo Duchairn's.

Encouraging the incompetents to screw up and anger the public as much as possible while carrying out Clyntahn's exact orders might be easier than using broadsheets.

Turning publicly avowed enemies into quiet friends and allies is the real potential opportunity involved, which might as you say be a real encouragement to Dohlar, when the time comes to ditch the king and choose a regency that might include both Thirsk and Ahlverez, that accepts the minimal alliance demands; ending the inquisition and serfdom, religious toleration, etc.

L


[quote="JeffEngel"]*quote="lyonheart"*Hi JeffEngel,

I agree safe propaganda may be a long shot, but there are ways to spread agitprop, as Eric Frank Russell demonstrated so cleverly in Wasp, one of my favorite books.

I also agree any assets and HUMINT Nynian has in Silkiah will be invaluable, but nailing all the inquisitors, TL leaders etc immediately is secondary to securing the canal.*quote*
I wouldn't regard the two operations as necessarily competing, but instead complementary.

In general, securing the canal long-term means securing Silkiah, and that's going to take either squashing the military in Silkiah with the Inquisition behind it, or snipping out the Inquisition and then suggesting to the military and political leadership that they're now free to chart a different course and we'd just love to have them as friends. Option two is preferable by far if you can do it.

In the shorter term, motivation to destroy locks and maybe authorization to would have to go through the Inquisition, so again, taking them away (or out of the loop) quickly means a safer canal.[quote]

It wouldn't take much to have several 'friends' or associates buy various scattered farms or estates, which may have already occurred decades ago, given the long history of the SSK in the republic, which could provide quiet places, ie 'safe houses', for Scout-Snipers to meet and rest etc, besides have a ready supply of horses for them without attracting much attention, as well as guides and papers for them as they travel to the locks, without having to land hundreds of horses (4 each etc) and try to sneak all the way [~150-160 miles] over 3+ nights without being noticed, NTM taking out the semaphore network, and or providing needed signals [rockets, heliographs, etc] when the locks are taken etc.*quote*
Good point. But note that the safe houses created can do double-duty for Silkiah's, ah, religious liberation, and that cutting off semaphore stations (perhaps selectively, if you want messages able to go to and from leaders you trust to send orders you want sent) also cuts off the Inquisition and extreme Temple Loyalist leaders from being able to pass on orders (and warnings) effectively.
[quote]
Obviously, the inquisition has been persecuting anyone profiting too much from the smuggling with
Charis or considering reformist doctrines, but Silkiah has been a secondary concern for the Go4, and I suspect it hasn't received the best or brightest inquisitors by any means, so Nynian's entrenched operators may continue to have quite a few advantages.*quote*
I imagine it's got one or two top-tier Inquisitors running the show, but other than that, an overextended staff composed of disappointments, political appointees, trainees, and draftees - essentially, what can be spared from more important spots with direction sufficient to make do with that material.

Given that the Silkiah problem for the Church has been only as a secondary concern Reformist sentiment or political restiveness and primarily enforcing Clyntahn's Continental System, I suspect many of those draftees are Treasury customs agents. On the one hand, there's no reason to suppose the more competent ones are frequently posted elsewhere in that case - but on the other, while they may be working with and effectively for the Inquisition in Silkiah, there's no reason to suppose that they've really got their hearts in being Clyntahn's zealous iron heel on heresy. A dozen Duchairn Juniors there may not need assassination and may help keep a Silkiahan surrender minimally bloody.
[quote]
Given the apparent criminal aspects to the SSK's operations, they very well might know who was sympathetic, and who was just being greedy [while taking a very discrete indirect and minor role with plenty of official cover] and which inquisitors may fall into either or both categories, having agents among them for centuries.

They might deflect the fresh inquisitors with revelations of the criminal greedy ones to delay investigation of the quiet reformist sympathizers, building support groups very carefully etc.*quote*
Could be. Or if they have that sort of goods, they could use them for blackmail of the vulnerable sorts.

[i]Or[/i]... given the likelihood that the Inquisition there is a bunch of disappointments, trainees, and draftees, some of them may still have actual principles, and could be trained on Clyntahn's corrupt but pragmatic sorts on the basis of the corruption that Clyntahn and Rayno shrug off and take for granted. Certainly a Paityr Wylsynn type of Inquisitor - perhaps a lot dimmer or more naive - would count as one of those disappointments and possible political appointees, so if Silkiah has any of those, they could be put to use creating some mess there at a critical time that the local establishment can't fix quickly.[quote]

Your point about far more rapid communications is also excellent, but perhaps more importantly thanks to her own intel, the SNARC's can be focused on any previously overlooked threats, while also providing security for her assets as well, which could be quite a morale booster, especially if they thought a seijin or two was now helping them.

Imagine if Dialydd Mab showed up. *quote*

For instance, yes. Although I doubt Silkiah has been nasty enough yet for there to be any targets worth Mab's reputation. Evacuating vulnerable people ahead of danger, or communicating with people you'd like to turn from constrained enemies to friends, these would be more Ahbraim Zhevons jobs. (Poor Merlin - I wonder if one effect of bringing Nynian/Anzhelyk/Aivah/cast-of-thousands in is going to end up being less time in his "own" face and more identity crisis. "What, you're only five people so far? We are so changing that!")
[quote]
Taking out the critical Dairnyth communications node, the last land link to everything south, the local inquisitors will be left to flounder in the chaos while the alliance takes full advantage.

If she activates any local assassination groups against the effective inquisitors, possibly with Merlin's, OWL's, Nahrmahn's and or Nimue's help, as part of the pre-invasion softening up process, as well as neutralizing the semaphore network, Silkiah might wake up and not realize its been effectively liberated overnight or over just a day or two.

L*quote*
Yep. If the Grand Duke and/or his senior minister can be contacted beforehand - or counted on to go along - and the Inquisition effectively arrested, they can get Silkiah liberated quickly and with very little bloodshed or damage. Occupying it would be a terrible drain on limited manpower anyway, so pulling it off in a way that leaves you with a friendly populace and government is crucial in any case and entirely possible here.

Bringing Tarot over is the best prior example for Silkiah. It's tougher in that Silkiah has so much land border with Temple-loyal states, likely a livelier Inquisition presence, and a mainland clergy. But I think it does have less of a recent history trading damage with Charis, and it's also good practice for Dohlar. "Liberation" is going to be too much of a stretch there, but if Thirsk's family isn't the only one under Church "protection", and with the Navy well aware that their honorably surrendered enemy counterparts were nothing more than Question-fodder for the Inquisition - well, there will be elements of liberation there too.[/quote][/quote]

Hi Peter2,

Upping Harchong's tithe from 20% to 25% along with the across the board involuntary tax is apparently what Duchairn is counting on to pay for the jihad's immediate demands, but I agree it isn't enough for the long term.

Whether the rumors the CoGA can't pay what it already owes are actually being fed by Duchairn or not it seems the G04 are riding towards a perfect storm of a collapse.

I'm waiting for Clyntahn's reaction to the news of the Silverlode bonanza.

Making him publicly froth in apoplexy resulting in a stroke may have to wait until the MHoGatA is decisively beaten, but all that could easily happen in HFQ.

L

Peter2 wrote:Changing the topic slightly, I'm wondering how the CoGA's infrastructure is standing up to having to fund the armies.

Economics is not a strong subject for me, but I can't help wondering how close the Gang of Four is to running out of money. They were having problems early on with a drastic drop in tithing to the CoGA, and they must be having to invest heavily in all sorts of armaments and methods of making them.

Also, their communications are going to hit the buffers very soon, when the ironclads cut off their remaining sea routes.

Finally, how much food have they got? Harchongese agriculture seems to be extremely labour-intensive, and the more of the serfs get drafted into the army, the fewer are going to be available to raise crops. And they've lost access to Siddarmark's breadbasket.

lyonheart wrote:Hi Peter2,

Upping Harchong's tithe from 20% to 25% along with the across the board involuntary tax is apparently what Duchairn is counting on to pay for the jihad's immediate demands, but I agree it isn't enough for the long term.

Whether the rumors the CoGA can't pay what it already owes are actually being fed by Duchairn or not it seems the G04 are riding towards a perfect storm of a collapse.

I'm waiting for Clyntahn's reaction to the news of the Silverlode bonanza.

Making him publicly froth in apoplexy resulting in a stroke may have to wait until the MHoGatA is decisively beaten, but all that could easily happen in HFQ.

L

Peter2 wrote:Changing the topic slightly, I'm wondering how the CoGA's infrastructure is standing up to having to fund the armies.

Economics is not a strong subject for me, but I can't help wondering how close the Gang of Four is to running out of money. They were having problems early on with a drastic drop in tithing to the CoGA, and they must be having to invest heavily in all sorts of armaments and methods of making them.

Also, their communications are going to hit the buffers very soon, when the ironclads cut off their remaining sea routes.

Finally, how much food have they got? Harchongese agriculture seems to be extremely labour-intensive, and the more of the serfs get drafted into the army, the fewer are going to be available to raise crops. And they've lost access to Siddarmark's breadbasket.

Irritating the orders by making them cough up people to serve the Jihah is probably not a loyalty enhancer over the long term, nor is forcing Harchong to cough up its foundaries. But in the short term, all these measures will help.

But on the other hand, does the COGA even have a long term to worry about in terms of its political power?

Don

lyonheart
I'm waiting for Clyntahn's reaction to the news of the Silverlode bonanza.


Me too, and given the present difficulty with communications-that may take a while.
And if they are already digging out silver, gold, platinum, when he does find out,
..... oh my.

Hi Louis R,

Kudos for the excellent reasoning!

OTOH, lots of geographic details aren't shown until they become pertinent, like the Salthar Canal, which seemed so obvious for years, but was never mentioned or shown despite very vigorous advocates here.

Actually, Pei Shan-wei deliberately made the Langhorne angle north to help isolate the east from Zion and the west.

It may be the other archangels accepted the more indirect route for the Langhorne as being the least energetic requiring terraforming and the time element didn't seem that important to them since they intended the society to have slow trade and communications in the first place, and in their arrogance, didn't see what she intended.

Mountains, or a high continental plateau, or simply a lack of water for an 800 mile canal [requiring some 422 million cubic yards before considering evaporation and lock losses etc] could be the explanation as you suggest; yet the archangels also expected the colonists to build more canals and roads, this obvious connecting road may have been left to them as so many were.

Given the amount of snow in the region, an aqueduct might be the answer, since a batch of mountains would easily trap far more than that in snow melt if a canal was truly desired, but was never been needed before.

Regarding a connecting high road, its possible all the dragons sent back from the Sylman, if they total something over 2,000 dragons, might support such a move by a quarter of the MHoGatA over the 20 days needed for the traverse, they are then barged up the upper Daivyn and the Sair-Selyk Canal to Lake Maysn to reconnect with the AoG's logistics, or at least that would be the Go4's intention, which might be derailed by BGV and General Symkyn etc, etc.

You're probably right about how long the delay would before the MHoGatA could begin to even move south, and giving the ICA at least two month's to play spells lots more disaster for all the Go4 allies or stooges south of Dairnyth at the very least, regardless of what Clyntahn wants, thinks, or makes himself believe.

Thus, his increasing refusal to admit the obvious will drive even his supporters away, making it ever easier for whatever coup Duchairn has planned.

L

Louis R wrote:take a good look at the maps.

specifically, look at what's _not_ there. to whit, the Bedard and Langhorne canals. or _any_ major road.

if Pei Shan-Wei didn't think taking the southern route was feasible for her canal-builders when the ruler-on-the-map approach suggests that it would have made at least as much sense to run the Bedard right through to the upper Daivyn as to use the actual route, there are some pretty serious impediments hiding in that blank space. it needn't be terrain, although i'm betting that if the easy way round included at least one 400'-deep cut in the equally blank space of Sardahn the terrain is nothing to take lightly. canals do need water, and in particular they need a lot of it at or near the height of land, so a high, dry plateau is going to be just as big an issue as rough ground. in fact, actually a harder one for the 'archangels' to deal with.

the fact that the high roads are also conspicuous by their absence in Jhurlahnk and Faralas, despite the comprehensive network shown paralleling the canals, would also indicate that this is a difficult area to move through. taken by themselves, of course, the roads are rather less than conclusive, but if they aren't simply missing because Himself didn't bother to draw in something he knows is there then the region must be, at best, rather less populated even than the South March. combined with the canal routes, it suggests to me that this is seriously bad ground to be moving a major army that marches on its stomach through. there doesn't appear to be an adequate transportation route to start with, and i wouldn't even want to think about having to drag every drop of water along

given the weather conditions at Camp 4, which you will recall was on the Bedard in Gwynt, the Host isn't likely to be able to get on the road before late April or early May to begin with. i'd bet against Maigwair being able to send any of it straight east from the Bedard even if he wanted to [and i'm even more dubious about the reception the idea would get from Vicar Zhaspahr ]

*quote="lyonheart"*Hi JMSeeley,

Kudos for the excellent analysis!

I suspect Symkyn will deal with Kaitswyrth quite handily, but taking Dairnyth prevents supplying any MHoGatA sub army [quasi 'army group center'] advancing from Gwynt across Doman and Jhurlahnk to the Charayn Canal, although I've suggested that it could mean being easily destroyed by other ironclads on the Daivyn river etc.

So this spring could be quite portentous for how the summer campaigns develop.

L


*quote="jmseeley"*

If Dohlar loses Evrytyn, are there any forces left to keep Alliance forces from rolling all the way to Dairnyth? If I recall, that's currently Kaitswyrth's main supply port, at least until more of the Northern canal system is repaired. Hanth doesn't have enough forces to go all the way, but Eastshare probably does. That could logistically kneecap the AoG in Cliff Peak and Westmarch.

jms

*quote**quote*