HFQ Offical Snippet #18

In snippet 17, we saw that Rychtyr had

pulled his main force another twenty miles upriver, to a point where the Seridahn broadened to the next best thing to a half mile. The current was slower, the water was shallower, and the navigable channels were constricted. All of that had made it easier to sink blocking barges where he needed them, and the river narrowed once more as it passed between steep bluffs immediately upstream. He’d erected a massive twenty-four-gun battery atop the western bluffs, protected by a curved earthwork and positioned to cover the barricade with fire. Its height gave it good command, and the narrower river meant its guns could engage anything that got by the barge line at ranges of as little as a hundred yards[/i]

.
The battery on the bluffs will be easy pikens for the Delthak. Being high on a bluff means it will be visible from a long distance without need for intermediate observation posts. Observation posts may be important/necessary for other targets, but one gets a sense that with that massive twenty-four battery blown away, other defenses will be vulnerable.

Hi JeffEngel,

I agree safe propaganda may be a long shot, but there are ways to spread agitprop, as Eric Frank Russell demonstrated so cleverly in Wasp, one of my favorite books.

I also agree any assets and HUMINT Nynian has in Silkiah will be invaluable, but nailing all the inquisitors, TL leaders etc immediately is secondary to securing the canal.

It wouldn't take much to have several 'friends' or associates buy various scattered farms or estates, which may have already occurred decades ago, given the long history of the SSK in the republic, which could provide quiet places, ie 'safe houses', for Scout-Snipers to meet and rest etc, besides have a ready supply of horses for them without attracting much attention, as well as guides and papers for them as they travel to the locks, without having to land hundreds of horses (4 each etc) and try to sneak all the way [~150-160 miles] over 3+ nights without being noticed, NTM taking out the semaphore network, and or providing needed signals [rockets, heliographs, etc] when the locks are taken etc.

Obviously, the inquisition has been persecuting anyone profiting too much from the smuggling with
Charis or considering reformist doctrines, but Silkiah has been a secondary concern for the Go4, and I suspect it hasn't received the best or brightest inquisitors by any means, so Nynian's entrenched operators may continue to have quite a few advantages.

Given the apparent criminal aspects to the SSK's operations, they very well might know who was sympathetic, and who was just being greedy [while taking a very discrete indirect and minor role with plenty of official cover] and which inquisitors may fall into either or both categories, having agents among them for centuries.

They might deflect the fresh inquisitors with revelations of the criminal greedy ones to delay investigation of the quiet reformist sympathizers, building support groups very carefully etc.

Your point about far more rapid communications is also excellent, but perhaps more importantly thanks to her own intel, the SNARC's can be focused on any previously overlooked threats, while also providing security for her assets as well, which could be quite a morale booster, especially if they thought a seijin or two was now helping them.

Imagine if Dialydd Mab showed up.

Taking out the critical Dairnyth communications node, the last land link to everything south, the local inquisitors will be left to flounder in the chaos while the alliance takes full advantage.

If she activates any local assassination groups against the effective inquisitors, possibly with Merlin's, OWL's, Nahrmahn's and or Nimue's help, as part of the pre-invasion softening up process, as well as neutralizing the semaphore network, Silkiah might wake up and not realize its been effectively liberated overnight or over just a day or two.

L

JeffEngel wrote:

lyonheart wrote:Hi JeffEngel,

Kudos for some excellent reasoning!

You may well be right, since we know so little about Nynian's full capabilities.

Preparing something that would ease any military action by Charis, since Silkiah is such an obvious naval target, would be greatly appreciated by the EoC, but it'd have too be rather subtle to be overlooked by the inquisition, possibly emphasizing the Empire's ending serfdom, free trade etc throughout the rest of the empire in newspapers or anonymous pamphlets or broadsheets she owned and operated through third parties before the SoS, in contrast to how Silkians are now treated in their own country by the inquisition.

After all if it works for the mysterious broadsheet network [OWL's], why not hers?

She might consider it a challenge to figure out how it might possibly be done by mortals as a test or proof [if her organization can't do it, are seijins the only explanation?] then that perhaps someone with some special tools like Seijin Khody, which might have encouraged her belief there's another seijin at work.

What are some other tricks you think she might have come up with or prepared in Silkiah?

L

Specifically, anything to get Inquisitors in Silkiah - or at least, the leadership and any likely to take initiative - dead, captive, or out of communication just prior to Charisian entrance into Silkiah would be convenient. How much can be done depends on luck, prep time and penetration. But if it's nothing more than locating the Inquisition leadership for Charisian infiltrators (or a friendly seijin) to nab ASAP, it's a great help.

General intelligence on the lay of things in Silkiah - political, religious, military - would all be handy. SNARC's will nab a lot, but Nynian has the advantage of perhaps having more operatives (perhaps by indirect chains) to spare there than OWL has SNARC's for one more small country. And she's one of their better analysts even for the SNARC take, and combining direction of them with her human intelligence resources there will make for much better work than either source can do on its own. (That doesn't have to assume she's got much humint there - anything more than zero will have more than zero benefit.) Another intelligence item that would be handy would be anything to indicate which Silkiahan leaders would be how helpful or how resistant for what purposes when Charis comes to free them. And preparations against sabotage of the canals Charis could really use afterward would be possible and helpful.

(A more general point, good here as well as anywhere. Nynian's a prolific letter-writer and has fingers in many, many places. The SSK is the basis of a lot of that network, but she's worked family connections, Temple prostitutional [yeah, I'm going to call that a word], and business ones as well, at least. Much of her capability as an operative has been limited just by communication speed, communication security, and her own time. OWL and Nahrmahn will be able to give her untold support that way, and Sandrah will be able to help integrate that once she gets her spiritual feet back under herself. The Temple is doomed.)

I think she would have to be very, very subtle using public broadsheets to make points in favor of Charis, as the Church in Silkiah - even the Reformists have to be running so scared as to cooperate now - will shut down anything they can reach with extreme prejudice if it steps an inch out of line. But they may be able to, say, "offer prayers" for the "many brave warriors for Langhorne" lost in battle after battle "against the oncoming armies of Charis and Siddarmark". (Maybe they can get away without playing up heresy at least.) The grasp on Silkiah is essentially based on fear now, and if they can let people know (while being loyal Temple sorts to all appearances) that the Temple's armies are fleeing, dying, and starving, that fear weakens.

OWL's broadsheets could play off hers, "revealing" what "those Temple Loyalist rags are afraid to tell you!" (Entirely accurately - they need to be afraid, although there's no reason to detail precisely why!) Where the public ones offer prayers, the broadsheets of secret origin can lay out just what happened to the Desnairians, maybe advise people to prepare against a Desnairian invasion. The two of them combined would represent an effective tag-team shift of the Overton window in Silkiahan public opinion, without the Inquisition having anyone they can Question. (Well, apart from innocents they pick up and torture out of frustration - for which they will at least be made to pay in even more lost respect.)

Hi Don,

Given her business connections and covers, I suspect Nynian to have excellent contacts all across the continents, since she should have her vicar friends etc as fronts.

Corporations that had Clyntahn's friends on its boards or as known silent pardners would not get much interference from the inquisition, and if their profits were occasionally propped up by other more lucrative business's,they'd be even more protective, without ever bothering to find out who was really making all that money for them, but they'd be even more likely to share whatever news that might increase them.

What are some other clever ways she'd extend her intel net and revenues?

L

JeffEngel wrote:

n7axw wrote:I would be a bit cautious about reading too much into Nynian's organization. While its reach may indeed be what you say, what we know about it from textev is that it is heavily focused on Zion. Given how successful it has been with staying in the shadows, I have my doubts about the idea that its reach could be everywhere.

Don

Oh, let's suppose that she had practically no Out Island penetration. Given the way that Church families tend not to put anyone there or come from there, there was little opportunity for it. And there's likely no reason to have cultivated any in Sodar or Trellheim, and nearly no reason in Delferahk.

Chances are her reach in Siddarmark was mostly through commercial contacts and some special secondary connections, like Zhasyn Cahnyr's secretary. In a lot of ways, Silkiah is Siddarmark writ very small, so some marginal commercial ties there and just possibly some very limited Church-based ones are plausible in the longer term background, and maybe a bit more developed on that basis since the Sword of Schueler. I'm not supposing it's much; I'm just betting it's more than nothing.

Certainly the Church-based and SSK ties are focused on the Temple Lands, with probably a little more in the Border States and North Harchong, since they're culturally and politically in the Temple Lands' penumbra. There are probably some Church-based ties - much less, but again more than nothing - in Dohlar, South Harchong, and Desnair. And maybe a whiff of those commercial connections in Dohlar, given its maritime ambitions and being less backward than most mainland realms other than Siddarmark.

I just think it's important to remember both that her connections and network aren't exclusively derived from the Sisters, and that the network she had several years back before recent events - particularly the Sword - has likely experienced not only losses but also changes and extensions based on perceived future needs. And staying in the shadows is a lot easier when much of it isn't much to see - just correspondents for almost always apparently innocuous information, and some purchasing agents and commercial factors to make apparently innocuous things happen.

The Hand of Kau-yung certainly is going to have a hard time staying in the shadows, because it's attracting so much attention given what it is doing. But I'd think that it's just a tiny element of an entire organization (most of which has no reason to think of itself as one) that rarely does anything so dramatic.

Hi Don,

Thanks for the compliment, but your talents are also appreciated.

Okay here are some of those numbers.

Back in August [chapter IV], Hanth thinks about how if all of Sumyr's men recover he'll have 23,000 when the AoJ arrives, or just 8% of their force which gives it a total of 287,500 men, 175,000+ [how much artillery?] being Desnari leaves less than 112,500 for the RDA at that time, before Rychtyr is stripped off.

Frankly given the low alliance numbers they think were at Thesmar, I'd be surprised if Rychtyr was given more than 25-30,000 men since the last thing they were expecting was Hanth to attack.

If one adds the 20,000 replacement Ahlverez received at Fort Tairys, there are only 67,500 trained troops left in all of Dohlar if the RDA totaled 200,000 troops in the first place, which I doubt; using your ~180,000 figure, they'd be down to 47,500 to cover all the rest of Dohlar, before considering the garrisons needed for internal security etc.

Then there's the border with the republic being over 900 miles long, which for even 180,000 men would be less than 200 men per mile, a pathetic figure, and 120,000 means an even more pathetic ~131 men per mile [~917 miles?] even worse.

NTM the distance they'd have to travel, ie ~1250 miles from Gorath or the rest of western Dohlar, for over a month as a response time to what happened only a 5day or two ago.

Given the suddenness of the theater reversal, I don't expect the current reinforcements to Rychtyr to be very many, given the time factor, NTM the few thousands he received the last time despite his proximity to Dohlar and the month's spent there, although I'm curious about your reference to militia backing up the army etc.

If such were the case Thirsk wouldn't be expecting them to gut his navy.

Rychtyr probably outnumbers Hanth, but not in rifles or artillery, and EHM and DE are probably also halfway there.

Without adding any additional RSA brigades or divisions DE's ~70,000 and EHM's current ~57,000 men would total 147,000+ added to Hanth's versus Rychtyr's probable 29-49,000men or odds of anywhere from 3-5 to 1, not bad odds for the alliance for a change.

However if Rychtyr has only around 16-20 infantry regiments, and they still average only 512 rifles per regiment, that's just 10,240 against at least 10 times that many, all of which are breech loaders.

Then there's the final 50,000+ ICA troops that left Port Royal at the end of September we haven't seen since.

If they follow HMS Delthak up the Seridahn [though I'm not at all convinced they will], Rychtyr will have plenty to point to, to explain why he HAD to retreat even to Clyntahn.

But I expect DE and EHM if their both headed west, to cross the Seridahn north and south of Evrytyn, as I've mentioned before, flanking Rychtyr and forcing him to retreat back down the canal to avoid being cutoff, as Thirsk suggested.

Rychtyr knows he can't fight an open battle against the ICA at anything like even odds [ie Hanth], and that he doesn't have the numbers against what DE and EHM are probably sending his way, nor what ICA artillery can do on the offensive, especially with new high explosive fillers, so his only rational course is to withdraw when faced by 147-200,000 alliance troops.

Speaking of picric acid, I wonder if a ceramic, resin or 'plastic' liner such as Bakelite, or as a very thin 'jar' to contain it, might eliminate most of the corrosion or instability problems, since the 'jar' or liner breaking after the shell is fired is immaterial to the long term storage problem.

Interesting times indeed.

Timing, of course may be everything.

Regarding the Harchong, they're around 1600 miles from Dairnyth, or 40 days minimum, assuming they can move immediately in Gwynt or Doman, because I suspect the canals and rivers are still frozen so they may have to wait a few 5days, enabling EHM to fortify it, while the last 50,000+ ICA might be more profitably used taking Silkiah, enabling a flanking maneuver from the south to further wreck Dohlar's defense plans that I've mentioned before, while Zhwaigair's other project might be naval mines which might limit any ICN raids or invasions.

But if the Salthar Canal is seized intact soon, the new ironclads could bottle up Thirsk, and blockade the Bay of Bess; preventing the MHoGatA from being supplied by sea, river or canal, the only way it can be, forcing it to retreat from Dairnyth, and effectively abandoning not just Dohlar but Silkiah and all of Howard, which Dohlar's then new leaders would secretly prefer.

Quite a coup for the alliance, don't you think!

L

n7axw wrote:

lyonheart wrote:Hi Don,

Thanks for your concern.

Family and a few other duties have taken up my usual time, I'm way behind reading some other threads.

Where are you getting 120,000 men left in the RDA?

Ahlverez started for Fort Tairys with an army about half the size of Harless's [88-90K] and added some 20,000 replacements, yet now has less than 35,000 left.

Rychtyr had close to 40,000 before combining with Ahlverez when he had almost 50,000 after Alykberg, but before their assault on Thesmar, but we have no details on the size of Rychtyr's after the assault, but best guess would be 20,000+ before adding any replacements.

Even with the almost 13,000+ Desnari infantry that attached themselves to Ahlverez, he had less than 48,000 men, and he was still halfway to Thesmar, as last we read in LaMA.

I'd want Fyguera to have at least close to 10,000 men to garrison Thesmar while Hanth took ~20,000 men to roll the AoJ's supply tail up.

L

Hi Lyonheart,

You are a lot better at the numbers thing than I am.

I didn't count all the reinforcements sent forward. We know that roughly half of the Dohlaran Army crossed the border into Siddamark under Ahlvarez, including Rychtyr. IIRC the number given for that was 95,000. Rychtar's force was about 40,000 and about 55,000 were under Ahlvarez himself.

That would leave about 90,000 at home. We know that reinforcements were sent for Rychtyr and replacements sent to Ahlvarez while he was at Ft Tairys. There is a logic that would suggest that this would reduce that 90,000 figure by the number sent forward.

But I think not. Dohlar has a system of militias that can be called up to supplement the main army. In addition, recruiting has been going on, perhaps under a draft. So while the quality of the replacements probably aren't as good, I suspect that the 90,000 fugure has held up pretty well. Then assuming that either Rychtar or Ahlvarez or perhaps both get their people out--figure 30-35,000 men-- that 120,000 figure men for the defense of Dohlar starts to look pretty reasonable.

I have no doubt that while the ICA and the Siddamarkians can still reduce Dohlar by land, it looks to me that it would cost less in blood to do it by sea, striking directly at the capital.

The countervailing risk here would be being caught between a still dangerous Dohlaran army and the Harchongese moving south. That would put an allied army in the position of needing to deal with each in detail or be trapped.

That could be a bad thing.

Don

Hi ChrisD,

I find it fascinating that HMS Delthak was still referred to as a 22 gun ship in October's chapter 11, when it was really only an 18 gun ship!

L

chrisd wrote:

tootall wrote:Getting an 18 meter elevation advantage may be trickier, when Delthak is normally at the local water level. How much range would they have against targets, say, up to 10m over Delthak?


And what are the chances that there are some 30-50 meter hills between water level and our target? Pretty good I'd think.
Any forward observer will have to be able to see both the target and the battery involved.

And, of course, those "inland" are in for one hell-of-a-shock when they find out the hard way that they re not out of range of HMS Delthak's new guns.

In a way it's a shame that they do not have more elevation to enable them to shoot over any intervening hills, though. I suppose that there is a possibility, as used by RN "Pre-dreadnaughts" during WW1 of "heeling" the ship for increased elevation when used in a shore bombardment role.

lyonheart wrote:Hi ChrisD,

I find it fascinating that HMS Delthak was still referred to as a 22 gun ship in October's chapter 11, when it was really only an 18 gun ship!

L

There's a small memorial up front: "Four More Guns - Gone but not Forgotten. Fire on, iron brothers, wherever you may be!"

Hi EdThomas,

I suspect HMS Delthak is not alone in driving up the river, that quite a few troops and angle guns etc are following her lead.

By the way has HMS Hador been lost?

Was she left at SC, or did she accompany Delthak as implied and was sunk in the storm?

We have no further reference to her after Cayleb gives his warning order to Captain Bahrns.

The only counter evidence is no negative references have been made, so are we to assume she made it through the storm and has been busy elsewhere?

Outflanking Rychtyr from the south and threatening his canal supply route could preempt DE and EHM own likely flanking advances, even if its just EH.

Forcing Rychtyr to retreat, by shooting up his supply barges from miles away would be one thing, although the propaganda and morale damage to the RDA etc might be just as important; "they can hit targets their gunners can't even see!"

We may yet see an open field battle if Rychtyr is compelled to flee, or tries to engage Hanth on what he assumes are even terms, as his best of very poor options.

If Hanth crosses the Seridahn south of Evrytyn in force and advances westward, while Delthak etc covers his supply route and flank, Rychtyr would have to retreat before DE and EHM get close.

So there's fun for everyone.

L

EdThomas wrote:Ruminations and Ramblings
At Trevyr, Rychter appears to have placed his defensive positions in a line on both sides of the river. Might this mean he doesn't realize how small EH's forces are? I'm assuming (that nasty word again! ) EH doesn't have sufficient troops to advance up both sides of the river.
Question - Is Rychter trying to defend both the Seridahn and the Canal? Answer - Both with the Canal having a higher priority because it leads directly into the heart of Dohlar.

He's pulled back 20 miles and set up what he believes to be a strong blocking position on the river. Is he deployed on both sides of the river? A conservative position would be for him to concede the eastern shore because the possibility still exists the ironclad could breakthrough and cut the east bank off. I think he's hedging his bets on the battery on the bluff being able to stop the ironclad. My SWAG is the power of the new guns and brown powdder will devastate the battery and the morale of his forces. (Maybe God really is on the side of the Heretics!

The eastern shore. - Rychter knows the forces that shattered the Desnairian and Dohlaran forces sent againt Fort Tairys are still there. We don't know how much he knows but it seems reasonable to assume he has some sort of cavalry screen to the east to give him warning if those forces are coming into his area.
We have no idea if DE has been in communication with EH. My SWAG is DE is headed west and would have made some effort to communicate with EH. Obvious place to send couriers is Thesmar but he does have mounted infantry which will allow him to probe to west and the Seridahn. Possible scenario here would be for Hanth to provide the anvil south and west across the canal for DE's hammer coming in from the east to crush Rychter.

Mortars - 1. If EH can get his additional support platoons or a portion thereof, mounted and working with his scout/snipers, he may be able to seriously disrupt, or possibly shut down Rychter's supply route.
2. The mortars are a strong defensive, and offensive weapon weapon that will serve as a force multiplier for EH.

Your thoughts?

Hi JMSeeley,

Kudos for the excellent analysis!

I suspect Symkyn will deal with Kaitswyrth quite handily, but taking Dairnyth prevents supplying any MHoGatA sub army [quasi 'army group center'] advancing from Gwynt across Doman and Jhurlahnk to the Charayn Canal, although I've suggested that it could mean being easily destroyed by other ironclads on the Daivyn river etc.

So this spring could be quite portentous for how the summer campaigns develop.

L

jmseeley wrote:

Randomiser wrote:Evrytyn is just about the only foothold the Dohlaran/Desnairian forces have left in Siddarmark. It is at the end of a good supply route and could make a reasonable bridgehead for another invading army once the Harchongese start to distract the ICA somewhat. Having a force there means that the ICA have to leave at least some troops to interdict them. I think the Temple will want that. And look at the other side. The canal is a very nice tempting route into Dohlar so the RDA have to interdict it at some point which may as well be Evrytyn, especially if there are few natural choke points further back. Or they have to destroy its usefulness to the ICA by blowing a lot of locks which would also prevent the RDA from using it as a supply route at a later time, which I doubt would please the Temple. I don't think the RDA has much choice but try to hold Evrytyn.

If Dohlar loses Evrytyn, are there any forces left to keep Alliance forces from rolling all the way to Dairnyth? If I recall, that's currently Kaitswyrth's main supply port, at least until more of the Northern canal system is repaired. Hanth doesn't have enough forces to go all the way, but Eastshare probably does. That could logistically kneecap the AoG in Cliff Peak and Westmarch.

jms

Hi Don,

Kudos for the excellent analysis again!

We will have to wait to see, but all the potential possibilities are so very fascinating, aren't they?

I suspect the open battle will be between Hanth and Rychtyr, its the best odds Rychtyr can get, and after all the sparing last summer, its about time they finished it.

Then when Ahlverez does squeak through, it will be even more impressive.

Of course, that's before he springs his little surprise; he knows they let him get away so he could help change Dohlar.

Keep smiling,

L

n7axw wrote:

Randomiser wrote:Evrytyn is just about the only foothold the Dohlaran/Desnairian forces have left in Siddarmark. It is at the end of a good supply route and could make a reasonable bridgehead for another invading army once the Harchongese start to distract the ICA somewhat. Having a force there means that the ICA have to leave at least some troops to interdict them. I think the Temple will want that. And look at the other side. The canal is a very nice tempting route into Dohlar so the RDA have to interdict it at some point which may as well be Evrytyn, especially if there are few natural choke points further back. Or they have to destroy its usefulness to the ICA by blowing a lot of locks which would also prevent the RDA from using it as a supply route at a later time, which I doubt would please the Temple. I don't think the RDA has much choice but try to hold Evrytyn.

I can see the logic. But thing is, should they try to hold Evyrtyn, they lose both the position and the force they would be expending to try to hold on to it with. That in turn weakens them against alliance forces at the next confrontation.

I know they have sent forward reinforcements with St Klymans. But with the exception of the Kyplynger forest, what has proved decisive so far in every battle has been artillery. When DE reinforces Hanth, artillery will once again be what breaks the Dohlarans' back.

Were I EH and DE, I would hope that they would try. However, I agree with you on what the church's pov is likely to be.

Don

lyonheart wrote:Hi JeffEngel,

I agree safe propaganda may be a long shot, but there are ways to spread agitprop, as Eric Frank Russell demonstrated so cleverly in Wasp, one of my favorite books.

I also agree any assets and HUMINT Nynian has in Silkiah will be invaluable, but nailing all the inquisitors, TL leaders etc immediately is secondary to securing the canal.

I wouldn't regard the two operations as necessarily competing, but instead complementary.

In general, securing the canal long-term means securing Silkiah, and that's going to take either squashing the military in Silkiah with the Inquisition behind it, or snipping out the Inquisition and then suggesting to the military and political leadership that they're now free to chart a different course and we'd just love to have them as friends. Option two is preferable by far if you can do it.

In the shorter term, motivation to destroy locks and maybe authorization to would have to go through the Inquisition, so again, taking them away (or out of the loop) quickly means a safer canal.

It wouldn't take much to have several 'friends' or associates buy various scattered farms or estates, which may have already occurred decades ago, given the long history of the SSK in the republic, which could provide quiet places, ie 'safe houses', for Scout-Snipers to meet and rest etc, besides have a ready supply of horses for them without attracting much attention, as well as guides and papers for them as they travel to the locks, without having to land hundreds of horses (4 each etc) and try to sneak all the way [~150-160 miles] over 3+ nights without being noticed, NTM taking out the semaphore network, and or providing needed signals [rockets, heliographs, etc] when the locks are taken etc.

Good point. But note that the safe houses created can do double-duty for Silkiah's, ah, religious liberation, and that cutting off semaphore stations (perhaps selectively, if you want messages able to go to and from leaders you trust to send orders you want sent) also cuts off the Inquisition and extreme Temple Loyalist leaders from being able to pass on orders (and warnings) effectively.

Obviously, the inquisition has been persecuting anyone profiting too much from the smuggling with
Charis or considering reformist doctrines, but Silkiah has been a secondary concern for the Go4, and I suspect it hasn't received the best or brightest inquisitors by any means, so Nynian's entrenched operators may continue to have quite a few advantages.

I imagine it's got one or two top-tier Inquisitors running the show, but other than that, an overextended staff composed of disappointments, political appointees, trainees, and draftees - essentially, what can be spared from more important spots with direction sufficient to make do with that material.

Given that the Silkiah problem for the Church has been only as a secondary concern Reformist sentiment or political restiveness and primarily enforcing Clyntahn's Continental System, I suspect many of those draftees are Treasury customs agents. On the one hand, there's no reason to suppose the more competent ones are frequently posted elsewhere in that case - but on the other, while they may be working with and effectively for the Inquisition in Silkiah, there's no reason to suppose that they've really got their hearts in being Clyntahn's zealous iron heel on heresy. A dozen Duchairn Juniors there may not need assassination and may help keep a Silkiahan surrender minimally bloody.

Given the apparent criminal aspects to the SSK's operations, they very well might know who was sympathetic, and who was just being greedy [while taking a very discrete indirect and minor role with plenty of official cover] and which inquisitors may fall into either or both categories, having agents among them for centuries.

They might deflect the fresh inquisitors with revelations of the criminal greedy ones to delay investigation of the quiet reformist sympathizers, building support groups very carefully etc.

Could be. Or if they have that sort of goods, they could use them for blackmail of the vulnerable sorts.

Or... given the likelihood that the Inquisition there is a bunch of disappointments, trainees, and draftees, some of them may still have actual principles, and could be trained on Clyntahn's corrupt but pragmatic sorts on the basis of the corruption that Clyntahn and Rayno shrug off and take for granted. Certainly a Paityr Wylsynn type of Inquisitor - perhaps a lot dimmer or more naive - would count as one of those disappointments and possible political appointees, so if Silkiah has any of those, they could be put to use creating some mess there at a critical time that the local establishment can't fix quickly.

Your point about far more rapid communications is also excellent, but perhaps more importantly thanks to her own intel, the SNARC's can be focused on any previously overlooked threats, while also providing security for her assets as well, which could be quite a morale booster, especially if they thought a seijin or two was now helping them.

Imagine if Dialydd Mab showed up.

For instance, yes. Although I doubt Silkiah has been nasty enough yet for there to be any targets worth Mab's reputation. Evacuating vulnerable people ahead of danger, or communicating with people you'd like to turn from constrained enemies to friends, these would be more Ahbraim Zhevons jobs. (Poor Merlin - I wonder if one effect of bringing Nynian/Anzhelyk/Aivah/cast-of-thousands in is going to end up being less time in his "own" face and more identity crisis. "What, you're only five people so far? We are so changing that!")

Taking out the critical Dairnyth communications node, the last land link to everything south, the local inquisitors will be left to flounder in the chaos while the alliance takes full advantage.

If she activates any local assassination groups against the effective inquisitors, possibly with Merlin's, OWL's, Nahrmahn's and or Nimue's help, as part of the pre-invasion softening up process, as well as neutralizing the semaphore network, Silkiah might wake up and not realize its been effectively liberated overnight or over just a day or two.

L

Yep. If the Grand Duke and/or his senior minister can be contacted beforehand - or counted on to go along - and the Inquisition effectively arrested, they can get Silkiah liberated quickly and with very little bloodshed or damage. Occupying it would be a terrible drain on limited manpower anyway, so pulling it off in a way that leaves you with a friendly populace and government is crucial in any case and entirely possible here.

Bringing Tarot over is the best prior example for Silkiah. It's tougher in that Silkiah has so much land border with Temple-loyal states, likely a livelier Inquisition presence, and a mainland clergy. But I think it does have less of a recent history trading damage with Charis, and it's also good practice for Dohlar. "Liberation" is going to be too much of a stretch there, but if Thirsk's family isn't the only one under Church "protection", and with the Navy well aware that their honorably surrendered enemy counterparts were nothing more than Question-fodder for the Inquisition - well, there will be elements of liberation there too.