HFQ Offical Snippet #18

IMO We are all swirling around the same central issue. Logistics remain the key to defeating the Churches Armies . Dairnyth is and will be the lifeblood of the Armies of Cliff Peak and (in the near future) the Harchongese. The Army of the Sylmahn is in deep Merde and even as their logistics are about to improve, BGV will be the 1st threat and if the Army of the Sylmahn turn toward BGV, the ICA in the Gap will combine to hit his flank/rear.

The Allies have excellent Logistics and a powerful manufacturing base behind it. Food Production is booming (ICN must take back control of the Ocean lanes though). The Allies just need to not stretch their supply lines.

Dairynth may see the Deltek parked in the Bay of Bess. with DE and a major force assuming control. Hanth can isolate the Dohlarian forces and hold them. I doubt with their border and the heart of their country under severe threat they would rush to save what was a 'safe and inaccessable' port.

I have been wondering about the 28 new 'riverboats' Deltek II I believe. They are about to be unleashed against the privateers and I hope up the Sheridahn via Alykberg to the Gulf of Tanshar. Capturing Port Salthar from the Dohlar side would be cool .

PeterZ wrote:

n7axw wrote:Hi Lyonheart,

I've missed ya lately. Thought ya went awol or something.

On to (slightly) more serious stuff... where are you coming up with your 20,000 figure for Hanth's army? The figure sloshing around in my head is more like 70,O00.

As for invading Dohlar, I see what you are talking about but here is what I am thinking. We know that at this point, Dohlar has, including Rychtyr, in the range of about 120,000 men under arms. Attacking them on their own turf would mean they would be the ones dug in this time and so far, at least, they have been the COGA's most effective minions. It sounds real expensive in terms of blood and treasure.

So is there any real downside to waiting for the Haarahlds? The only potential fly swirling around the olive in the martini here are the Harchongese. Being caught between them could be a bad thing... But then, how mobile will the Harchongese turn out to be?

Don

Lyonheart is right, Don. Upon HMS Delthak's arrival in Thesmar, Hanth's garrison increased to 30,000 men; that's RSA, ICMC and ICA. I don't recall his being reinforced much beyond that.

Hi PeterZ

I have a bit of textev floating around in my head that I might not be remembering correctly. I will see if I can hunt it up to reinforce or correct my memory.

Don

Hi PeterZ,

You guys are right. The passage I was recalling from BVG's ruminations summarized the various EOC field armies, but didn't include Hanth. 30,000 does seem to be the latest update on Hanth.

That does make him appear a bit short handed in facing the reinforced Dohlarans at Evyrtyn. I hope they get him some additional help.

Don

lyonheart wrote:Hi Thanatos,

"Liberating" Silkiah is secondary to taking the Salthar Canal intact in order to reduce the ICN's supply line by at least 5-12,000 miles, depending whether you're supplying from Port Royal or Tellesburg, as I've emphasized a few times in past threads, as you know.

While I think Nynian would be a great help in eliminating the Inquisition in Silkiah, I don't believe her organization is focused there enough to help all that much.

Personally, I think 500 rifles per month from scratch in less than a year after the SoS is pretty good.

Strategically and psychologically speaking, cutting Howard off from Haven will have important results in terms of getting many if not most of the vicarate to realise they're losing; especially in terms of control of Safehold, and they need to consider dealing with the reformists to prevent further losses, before its too late; thereby helping Duchairn etc when his coup comes.

L

I think that the canal is of less help than you are thinking. Remember that you need to factor in the time required to break bulk when transferring from galleon to canal boat.

Separating Silkiah from the CoGA is a good thing for a number of reasons, but the logistics help may be more in the form of coaling stations and reduced privateer bases, than shorter supply lines.

With sail at 200 miles/day average (pretty much a maximum for sustained voyages--even the rescue ships for Daivyn/Irys could barely average that), saving 5000 miles saves about a month. If 12,000 miles the savings is at least 2 months. That's under good conditions with no adverse winds, adverse storms, etc. In practice we're probably talking 6 weeks to 3 months savings.

Given that, offloading to canal boats doesn't seem such a bad idea if the option is there.

Castenea wrote:

lyonheart wrote:Hi Thanatos,

"Liberating" Silkiah is secondary to taking the Salthar Canal intact in order to reduce the ICN's supply line by at least 5-12,000 miles, depending whether you're supplying from Port Royal or Tellesburg, as I've emphasized a few times in past threads, as you know.

While I think Nynian would be a great help in eliminating the Inquisition in Silkiah, I don't believe her organization is focused there enough to help all that much.

Personally, I think 500 rifles per month from scratch in less than a year after the SoS is pretty good.

Strategically and psychologically speaking, cutting Howard off from Haven will have important results in terms of getting many if not most of the vicarate to realise they're losing; especially in terms of control of Safehold, and they need to consider dealing with the reformists to prevent further losses, before its too late; thereby helping Duchairn etc when his coup comes.

L

I think that the canal is of less help than you are thinking. Remember that you need to factor in the time required to break bulk when transferring from galleon to canal boat.

Separating Silkiah from the CoGA is a good thing for a number of reasons, but the logistics help may be more in the form of coaling stations and reduced privateer bases, than shorter supply lines.

Getting an 18 meter elevation advantage may be trickier, when Delthak is normally at the local water level. How much range would they have against targets, say, up to 10m over Delthak?


And what are the chances that there are some 30-50 meter hills between water level and our target? Pretty good I'd think.
Any forward observer will have to be able to see both the target and the battery involved.

tootall wrote:Getting an 18 meter elevation advantage may be trickier, when Delthak is normally at the local water level. How much range would they have against targets, say, up to 10m over Delthak?


And what are the chances that there are some 30-50 meter hills between water level and our target? Pretty good I'd think.
Any forward observer will have to be able to see both the target and the battery involved.

Do I hear a cross link with the hot air balloon topic?

Hi JeffEngel,

Kudos for some excellent reasoning!

You may well be right, since we know so little about Nynian's full capabilities.

Preparing something that would ease any military action by Charis, since Silkiah is such an obvious naval target, would be greatly appreciated by the EoC, but it'd have too be rather subtle to be overlooked by the inquisition, possibly emphasizing the Empire's ending serfdom, free trade etc throughout the rest of the empire in newspapers or anonymous pamphlets or broadsheets she owned and operated through third parties before the SoS, in contrast to how Silkians are now treated in their own country by the inquisition.

After all if it works for the mysterious broadsheet network [OWL's], why not hers?

She might consider it a challenge to figure out how it might possibly be done by mortals as a test or proof [if her organization can't do it, are seijins the only explanation?] then that perhaps someone with some special tools like Seijin Khody, which might have encouraged her belief there's another seijin at work.

What are some other tricks you think she might have come up with or prepared in Silkiah?

L

JeffEngel wrote:

lyonheart wrote:Hi Thanatos,

"Liberating" Silkiah is secondary to taking the Salthar Canal intact in order to reduce the ICN's supply line by at least 5-12,000 miles, depending whether you're supplying from Port Royal or Tellesburg, as I've emphasized a few times in past threads, as you know.

While I think Nynian would be a great help in eliminating the Inquisition in Silkiah, I don't believe her organization is focused there enough to help all that much.

It certainly hasn't been historically - that's been a matter of Temple Lands connections and Siddarmark finances. But she saw something like the Sword of Schueler coming, put herself in Siddarmark and prepared rifle battalions for the occasion. Even then, she could have foreseen at least the shadow of that falling on Silkiah and begun some preparations. As things have unfolded with Charisian intervention in Siddarmark, predicting a key role for Silkiah would have been easier.

So she's had a good bit of time and reason to prepare something in Silkiah - not with the focus or background she's had in the Temple Lands and Siddarmark by any means, but she's got mad letter-writing skills, plenty of cash, and connections everywhere. And she's well aware of her limitations too, so if she couldn't pull off the kind of miracles she did in Zion or Siddar City, she'd aim for something more subtle, perhaps coordinated with Charisian military action and/or her seijin friends.

Hi JeffEngel,

From the textev, where he warns Thirsk, I don't think he has any direct connections with Nynian or any resistance group, but I believe his moral compass won't let him ignore what he knows is wrong, even if he can't stop it right now.

I also can't help thinking that someone known to be a good bishop would be known to Nynian, and also have some special unremarkable (unknown to him) watchers looking after him because she's pegged him as a major future player in the future reformed Dohlar along with Thirsk, Ahlverez, etc.

Which we should see some outline of by the end of HFQ.

L

JeffEngel wrote:

lyonheart wrote:Hi JeffEngel,

By taking the Salthar Canal and Dairnyth, the alliance can remove much of the CoGA's pressure on the real Dohlar leadership, and I too suspect the Bishop will play an important role in Dohlar's post inquisition religious leadership, whether it formally splits with the temple or not.

Of course, its also possible he sacrifices himself for Thirsk or his family, but that's not my sense of where his character winds up.

L

I've got the same read. He's a very careful man, keeping the right things he does quiet and subtle so he can continue living and doing them. It probably "helps" that he's grown up with the awareness that loved ones are hostage to the Grand Inquisitor's opinion of one's value and loyalty, and that if he's going to get promoted to certain positions, he's expected to marry and have more hostages available.

It would be fitting and a hoot if it turns out he's got deep, deep, utterly buried connections with Nynian and could be part of an orchestrated "liberation" of the senior Dohlaran leadership's Inquisition-"protected" family members.

Of course, the best of plans often don't come off perfectly, and being smart doesn't mean being invulnerable, so it could well be that he gets killed - or captured and subjected to the Question - in the course of saving a lot of other people.

Hi Don,

Thanks for your concern.

Family and a few other duties have taken up my usual time, I'm way behind reading some other threads.

Where are you getting 120,000 men left in the RDA?

Ahlverez started for Fort Tairys with an army about half the size of Harless's [88-90K] and added some 20,000 replacements, yet now has less than 35,000 left.

Rychtyr had close to 40,000 before combining with Ahlverez when he had almost 50,000 after Alykberg, but before their assault on Thesmar, but we have no details on the size of Rychtyr's after the assault, but best guess would be 20,000+ before adding any replacements.

Even with the almost 13,000+ Desnari infantry that attached themselves to Ahlverez, he had less than 48,000 men, and he was still halfway to Thesmar, as last we read in LaMA.

I'd want Fyguera to have at least close to 10,000 men to garrison Thesmar while Hanth took ~20,000 men to roll the AoJ's supply tail up.

L

n7axw wrote:Hi Lyonheart,

I've missed ya lately. Thought ya went awol or something.

On to (slightly) more serious stuff... where are you coming up with your 20,000 figure for Hanth's army? The figure sloshing around in my head is more like 70,O00.

As for invading Dohlar, I see what you are talking about but here is what I am thinking. We know that at this point, Dohlar has, including Rychtyr, in the range of about 120,000 men under arms. Attacking them on their own turf would mean they would be the ones dug in this time and so far, at least, they have been the COGA's most effective minions. It sounds real expensive in terms of blood and treasure.

So is there any real downside to waiting for the Haarahlds? The only potential fly swirling around the olive in the martini here are the Harchongese. Being caught between them could be a bad thing... But then, how mobile will the Harchongese turn out to be?

Don