May I clarify a few things?
First, the 'final' major ICA force [50,000+ men] hasn't been seen since it left Port Royal at the end of September 896 [chapter 10], and neither BGV, ie Baron Green Valley, or any other inner circle member who knows where they are, has wondered about them for our benefit; so they could be waiting for the opportunity to take the Salthar canal or the north end of North Watch Province above the Gulf of Jahras to block the isthmus, or reinforce Hanth, or some other place where its still warm and campaigning is possible.
Secondly, Earl High Mount doesn't need to go to Glacierheart, because General Symkyn is already there with 75,000 men, and Kaitswyrth has, as far as we know, only 9-10,000 rifles for his 60-70,000 survivors, since any and all replacement rifles from the textev went to the Harchong MHoGatA, so Symkyn doesn't need help to crush Kaitswyrth, though he might need some help stopping the MHoGatA sub army probably replacing him.
Given Hanth has 20,000 men at most after leaving the Thesmar garrison under Fyguera, he needs some reinforcements, but we don't know the size of Rychtyr's force before he was reinforced according to the last data in LaMA.
Was it only 20 or 30,000 to start with?
Attacking rifle equipped enemies in entrenched positions without artillery support etc, seems to be very very low on the ICA's recommended and preferred tactical solutions list; Cayleb among others is quite confident Hanth won't do anything stupid, so should we.
I doubt ~20,000 men could besiege a potentially larger force without their mental cooperation, as in subconsciously already defeated, thinking they're already defeated.
I suspect Fort Tairys can be handled a brigade or two of the RSA's rifled units already with DE, while DE heads west with EHM, perhaps to cross the Seridahn river above and below Everytyn, forcing Rychtyr to retreat regardless what he's armed with.
To be a player in Gorath as much as I suspect, Ahlverez has to escape with most of his army, so crossing the Seridahn not to far from Thesmar still seems the most likely.
The new CoGA rifles are more flexibly useful than the previous flintlocks, but the ICA's huge artillery and mortar advantage, especially if new explosive fillings are coming into use that have several times the power of gunpowder, make them far from an equalizer as some imply.
I suggested month's ago and Thirsk's snippetted comments to his officers seems to confirm threatening Rychtyr's supply canal line back to Dohlar preempts the need for any such battle, although we have yet to have a meeting engagement, or one out in the open, which I doubt would go well for the RDA under any circumstances.
Even if Ahlverez with his ~47,000 men met up with Rychtyr, I doubt they'd have more than Hanth and EHM's ~77,000 men [leaving DE free to operate elsewhere, ie penetrate far further into Dohlar], NTM fighting on even terms with the ICA is a guaranteed great way to lose.
Taking Dairnyth as quickly as possible by EHM would prevent the MHoGatA from being able to advance logistically directly east from the Border States, a notable goal, NTM cutting off Dohlar and everything south from the temple [ie all of Howard]; something that might make Dohlar more compliant, or at least willing to admit its beaten when the time comes.
Since the soonest the KH VII's will reach the Bay of Bess etc is 6 month's from now, why wait?
Because taking the Salthar-Silk Town canal can been done this spring as I've detailed many times.
Thirsk's fleet is going suffer considerable manpower shortages as he pointed out, so don't expect him to go seeking a major sea battle when he knows there are at least two armored ships to contend with already.
Regarding Silkiah, the then 500 rifles per month was noted as only the beginning of rapidly increasing production last fall, hardly their upper limit by any means, because they were starting from a demilitarized state of exactly zero weapons capacity, which given their sympathy with Siddarmark and Charis, the inquisition watched carefully; yet they had already surpassed Desnar!
Rather than denigrate their accomplishment, wonder what it might be if fully unleashed by the alliance.
L
[quote="McGuiness"]*quote="isaac_newton"*[quote="n7axw"]Since we now know that Hanth has been put to the back of the line for the new toys, I wonder what will happen when he gets to Evyrtyn. Will he slip around and cut off the canal behind Rychtyr and lay siege to the place? Much of the gear they have sent him would seem suited to defensive siege lines.
At Evyrtyn Hanth will face the St Klymans in significant numbers for the first time. How will that change his tactics?
Also, it has been noted here that Hanth is short of manpower. Presuming that to be true, will DE or EHM reinforce him?
Finally, we know from [b]LAMA that there were still some TL militia in the Ft. Darymahn area... I wonder who is cleaning them out now[/b] that the balance has been tipped against them by Hanth's success in ejecting the Dohlarans from the Thesmar area and the destruction of thr Army of Shiloh.
This snippet rounds out the picture somewhat...but still lots to speculate about.
Don*quote*Hi Don
I remember seeing this recently in BCG's second to last 'thoughts' from Allyntyn [section VI of November 896]*, when he is thinking over the deployment of the final echelon of Charisian troops...
[quote]'Two more independently deployed mounted brigades where being sent south from the capital,where they would sson be teaching the TL guerrillas in the triangle of Southmarch lands between Southguard and the Taigyn river...'[/quote][/quote]If those brigades were actually sent, since they'd arrive about the time DE sallied out of Fort Tairys and mopped up the AoS, they free him to march to Thesmar to reinforce Hanth and drive the Dohlarans completely out of Siddarmark. (And they'll kill some TLs who [i]really [/i]need killlin'!) I'm sure a few galleons will be sent to smash Fort Darymahn to rubble (again) so the TLs have no place to hide. That would open the Taigyn river as a route to supply Fort Tairys and beyond, which is certainly worthwhile.
DE is in position to intercept and destroy Ahlverez, which would be a [i]very [/i]good thing. Removing the enemy's most competent and experienced general (even if he ends up as a POW) may be crucial in defeating Dohlar.
Let's not forget that the forces being rushed to Evrytyn have the new breech loading rifles, the church's first hand grenades based on the EoC's model, plus the church's first rifled artillery. Cracking that nut isn't going to be easy, especially if Ahlverez manages to bring his 35,000 troops inside. This would be the most even battle fought between the EoC and the CoGA since the final clash of the galleys at the end of OAR. Of course if the [i]Delthak [/i]can get within eight miles of Evrytyn, it might have just a [i]wee [/i]bit to say about the outcome!
Hanth probably has the forces to lay siege to Evrytyn and to cut the locks behind it, but he doesn't have the forces to besiege it indefinitely, since the roads on either side of the canal are almost as good as high roads for moving troops and supplies, and he can't leave a blocking force because it could be easily encircled and destroyed. The same goes for his forces at Evrytyn. He [i]needs [/i]DE in order to drive Dohlar back.
Looking at the strategic map, I can't think of anywhere that DE is needed more than to aid Hanth. Despite the sizable losses HM took in the Battle of the Kyplynger Woods, he still has plenty of men and artillery to hold Glacierheart, and even to go on the offensive against Kaitswyrth unless 600,000 or more Harchongese show up. Even if that happens he can fall back into the woods and decimate them, then fall back to the scar in the forest where the battle that routed Kaitswyrth took place, and if that fails, he has a prepared position on the shore of Ice Lake. He can bleed Kaitswyrth's forces the entire way, and Kaitswyrth's army that was routed by DE wants [i]nothing [/i]to do with facing Charisians again. They're beaten before they start, so unless Kaitswyrth is heavily reinforced with troops who have [i]never [/i]faced Charisian forces and been beaten, he's simply going to stay put - unless HM comes after him, or until his supplies from the south are cut off, which will happen as soon as the Haarahld VIIs (or even the Rottweilers, though that isn't the plan) sail into the Bay of Bess.
Given that the Haarahld VIIs should be ready to steam by August, and could arrive at Claw Island in September, South Harchong and Desnair will be entirely out of the war by the end of the year. It will be interesting to see if the ICN goes after Gorath immediately, or elects to shut down the Dairynth and Salthar canals first. Trapping Thirsk and the last fleet of the NoG in Gorath Bay would be ideal, but he'll probably sortie as soon as he hears of ICN ships in the Gulf, and there are only two armored ships in the ICN fleet. His ships are badly outranged and the new rifled shells will wreak havoc on any NoG ship they hit, but it's simply not possible to keep the range open under sail. So if Thirsk leaves Gorath, mopping up his fleet will be largely up to the Rottweilers and Haarahld VIIs. A toe-to-toe fight with their unarmored galleons will result in severe damage to ICN ships, although the rifled shells they fire now hit 7x harder and have 10x the explosive power than before, so engagements between any ICN and NoG warships are going to be short and catastrophic for the NoG, but the ICN [i]will [/i]take casualties - and some severe ones at that.
One possible sneaky twist that would be helpful - Silkiah is no longer declared a neutral zone by the CoGA, which so far means they've been allowed to begin producing rifles and are up to a whopping 500 a month! I doubt they're thrilled about supporting the jihad, since they were just as enthusiastic as Siddarmark in finding ways around the church mandated boycott of Charisian goods. The SoS caused them to pull their heads into their shells, but if Dohlar ends up surrendering, Silkiah may sign on with the allies. It has no army, but giving free and unfettered access to the Salthar canal would be a [i]huge [/i]advantage for the ICN, since it cuts 20,000 miles off of the journey to resupply the fleet in the Gulf of Dohlar, and [i]ironclads [/i]can pass through it...
[/quote]