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HFQ Offical Snippet #18

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Re: HFQ Offical Snippet #18
Post by McGuiness   » Mon Feb 09, 2015 6:08 am

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isaac_newton wrote:
n7axw wrote:Since we now know that Hanth has been put to the back of the line for the new toys, I wonder what will happen when he gets to Evyrtyn. Will he slip around and cut off the canal behind Rychtyr and lay siege to the place? Much of the gear they have sent him would seem suited to defensive siege lines.

At Evyrtyn Hanth will face the St Klymans in significant numbers for the first time. How will that change his tactics?

Also, it has been noted here that Hanth is short of manpower. Presuming that to be true, will DE or EHM reinforce him?

Finally, we know from LAMA that there were still some TL militia in the Ft. Darymahn area... I wonder who is cleaning them out now that the balance has been tipped against them by Hanth's success in ejecting the Dohlarans from the Thesmar area and the destruction of thr Army of Shiloh.

This snippet rounds out the picture somewhat...but still lots to speculate about.

Don
Hi Don

I remember seeing this recently in BCG's second to last 'thoughts' from Allyntyn [section VI of November 896]*, when he is thinking over the deployment of the final echelon of Charisian troops...

'Two more independently deployed mounted brigades where being sent south from the capital,where they would sson be teaching the TL guerrillas in the triangle of Southmarch lands between Southguard and the Taigyn river...'
If those brigades were actually sent, since they'd arrive about the time DE sallied out of Fort Tairys and mopped up the AoS, they free him to march to Thesmar to reinforce Hanth and drive the Dohlarans completely out of Siddarmark. (And they'll kill some TLs who really need killlin'!) I'm sure a few galleons will be sent to smash Fort Darymahn to rubble (again) so the TLs have no place to hide. That would open the Taigyn river as a route to supply Fort Tairys and beyond, which is certainly worthwhile.

DE is in position to intercept and destroy Ahlverez, which would be a very good thing. Removing the enemy's most competent and experienced general (even if he ends up as a POW) may be crucial in defeating Dohlar.

Let's not forget that the forces being rushed to Evrytyn have the new breech loading rifles, the church's first hand grenades based on the EoC's model, plus the church's first rifled artillery. Cracking that nut isn't going to be easy, especially if Ahlverez manages to bring his 35,000 troops inside. This would be the most even battle fought between the EoC and the CoGA since the final clash of the galleys at the end of OAR. Of course if the Delthak can get within eight miles of Evrytyn, it might have just a wee bit to say about the outcome! :twisted:

Hanth probably has the forces to lay siege to Evrytyn and to cut the locks behind it, but he doesn't have the forces to besiege it indefinitely, since the roads on either side of the canal are almost as good as high roads for moving troops and supplies, and he can't leave a blocking force because it could be easily encircled and destroyed. The same goes for his forces at Evrytyn. He needs DE in order to drive Dohlar back.

Looking at the strategic map, I can't think of anywhere that DE is needed more than to aid Hanth. Despite the sizable losses HM took in the Battle of the Kyplynger Woods, he still has plenty of men and artillery to hold Glacierheart, and even to go on the offensive against Kaitswyrth unless 600,000 or more Harchongese show up. Even if that happens he can fall back into the woods and decimate them, then fall back to the scar in the forest where the battle that routed Kaitswyrth took place, and if that fails, he has a prepared position on the shore of Ice Lake. He can bleed Kaitswyrth's forces the entire way, and Kaitswyrth's army that was routed by DE wants nothing to do with facing Charisians again. They're beaten before they start, so unless Kaitswyrth is heavily reinforced with troops who have never faced Charisian forces and been beaten, he's simply going to stay put - unless HM comes after him, or until his supplies from the south are cut off, which will happen as soon as the Haarahld VIIs (or even the Rottweilers, though that isn't the plan) sail into the Bay of Bess.

Given that the Haarahld VIIs should be ready to steam by August, and could arrive at Claw Island in September, South Harchong and Desnair will be entirely out of the war by the end of the year. It will be interesting to see if the ICN goes after Gorath immediately, or elects to shut down the Dairynth and Salthar canals first. Trapping Thirsk and the last fleet of the NoG in Gorath Bay would be ideal, but he'll probably sortie as soon as he hears of ICN ships in the Gulf, and there are only two armored ships in the ICN fleet. His ships are badly outranged and the new rifled shells will wreak havoc on any NoG ship they hit, but it's simply not possible to keep the range open under sail. So if Thirsk leaves Gorath, mopping up his fleet will be largely up to the Rottweilers and Haarahld VIIs. A toe-to-toe fight with their unarmored galleons will result in severe damage to ICN ships, although the rifled shells they fire now hit 7x harder and have 10x the explosive power than before, so engagements between any ICN and NoG warships are going to be short and catastrophic for the NoG, but the ICN will take casualties - and some severe ones at that.

One possible sneaky twist that would be helpful - Silkiah is no longer declared a neutral zone by the CoGA, which so far means they've been allowed to begin producing rifles and are up to a whopping 500 a month! I doubt they're thrilled about supporting the jihad, since they were just as enthusiastic as Siddarmark in finding ways around the church mandated boycott of Charisian goods. The SoS caused them to pull their heads into their shells, but if Dohlar ends up surrendering, Silkiah may sign on with the allies. It has no army, but giving free and unfettered access to the Salthar canal would be a huge advantage for the ICN, since it cuts 20,000 miles off of the journey to resupply the fleet in the Gulf of Dohlar, and ironclads can pass through it... :twisted:

"Oh bother", said Pooh as he glanced through the airlock window at the helmet he'd forgotten to wear.
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Re: HFQ Offical Snippet #18
Post by n7axw   » Mon Feb 09, 2015 10:58 am

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I would only add that they need to neutralize Kaitswryth and Wyrshym before they deal with the Harchongese. I presume that was what that expectation of heavy fighting to the north is all about.

Don
When any group seeks political power in God's name, both religion and politics are instantly corrupted.
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Re: HFQ Offical Snippet #18
Post by JeffEngel   » Mon Feb 09, 2015 1:37 pm

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McGuiness wrote:One possible sneaky twist that would be helpful - Silkiah is no longer declared a neutral zone by the CoGA, which so far means they've been allowed to begin producing rifles and are up to a whopping 500 a month! I doubt they're thrilled about supporting the jihad, since they were just as enthusiastic as Siddarmark in finding ways around the church mandated boycott of Charisian goods. The SoS caused them to pull their heads into their shells, but if Dohlar ends up surrendering, Silkiah may sign on with the allies. It has no army, but giving free and unfettered access to the Salthar canal would be a huge advantage for the ICN, since it cuts 20,000 miles off of the journey to resupply the fleet in the Gulf of Dohlar, and ironclads can pass through it... :twisted:

Tee hee! Ya, that isthmus between Howard and Haven is a very serious target in the world war.

Much as it may want to duck out of the war soon, Dohlar just doesn't have that option with the Inquisition and its land border to the north on the one hand and its placement as half the isthmus on the other. Silkiah's picking up an importance from position all out of proportion to its size, and probably has exactly zero loyalty to the Temple (as opposed to the Church - but then, that Church is going along fine in Charis and Siddarmark) that isn't a matter of how much power the Inquisitors can command.

Much as Nynian has eyes on the Temple, I'd think that being able to launch surgical strikes on the Inquisition in Dohlar and Silkiah - one would almost want to call them coups - would be terribly useful in converting them to fairly friendly states. Snipping the influence of the Inquisition was a crucial part in the defections of Emerald, Tarot, and Chisholm - it will be again. And the example of one or more mainland realms "doing a Nahrman" may pay off down the road in Desnair, Delfarahk, South Harchong, and eventually in the Border States.

If he is really, really lucky and as smart and pragmatically principled as I peg him, maybe Staiphan Maik can help usher in the freedom of Dohlar from the Temple, and not get executed by Charis.
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Re: HFQ Offical Snippet #18
Post by thanatos   » Mon Feb 09, 2015 1:51 pm

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McGuiness wrote:One possible sneaky twist that would be helpful - Silkiah is no longer declared a neutral zone by the CoGA, which so far means they've been allowed to begin producing rifles and are up to a whopping 500 a month! I doubt they're thrilled about supporting the jihad, since they were just as enthusiastic as Siddarmark in finding ways around the church mandated boycott of Charisian goods. The SoS caused them to pull their heads into their shells, but if Dohlar ends up surrendering, Silkiah may sign on with the allies. It has no army, but giving free and unfettered access to the Salthar canal would be a huge advantage for the ICN, since it cuts 20,000 miles off of the journey to resupply the fleet in the Gulf of Dohlar, and ironclads can pass through it... :twisted:


The previous book suggested that Silkiah, per the Treaty of Silk Town I presume, was intended to be a neutral buffer between Desnair and Siddarmark, one whose territorial integrity was guaranteed by the Church and not any military of its own. I think it was Fultyn who noted that the Grand Inquisitor ruled that the demilitarization provisions of the treaty no longer applied now. Earth history has several examples of states that were forced to demilitarize and the result was a shift to a more civilian economy. Germany and Japan post-WWII come to mind. It might explain why Silkiah was so prosperous to begin with (relative to its size). It would also explain why they can only produce 500 rifles a month. It will be a while before the production lines are established. If Charis really wants to hit the Church they should go after Silkiah.
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Re: HFQ Offical Snippet #18
Post by n7axw   » Mon Feb 09, 2015 3:18 pm

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I think that Dohlar is between the rock and the hard place at the moment, even though they may not realize the extent of their problem. They might be able to stall Hanth at Evrytyn, especially if he doesn't receive significant reinforcements.

But what do they do when the King Harahlds make a "port call" in Gorath Bay? I think they are up the creek without a paddle, myself.

Don
When any group seeks political power in God's name, both religion and politics are instantly corrupted.
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Re: HFQ Offical Snippet #18
Post by EdThomas   » Mon Feb 09, 2015 4:05 pm

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Some thoughts...
The St Kylmahn
1. The increased rate of fire of the St. Kylmahn will benefit Rychter mostly/only on the defensive. Unless RFC has beeen holding out on us, the only people in the COGA armies who've been looking into operating in more open formations are about to be gobbled up by BGV. Having a rifle that fires faster is not going to be much help if they are still forming up in mass formations to assault. I'd be very surprised if Hanth were to throw his infantry against an entrenched opponent.
2. Do we even know the St Kylmahn exists and is about to be used against us?
3. Wouldn't it be fun if Hanth sets up a temporary blocking position on the canal feeding Evertyn and just happens to capture a couple hundred or so of the StK with a nice little supply of the new ammunition? Imagine what his Scout/snipers could do with those!
DE...
my SWAG on his movements - West to Ft Sheldyn, then northwest up the highway to Alykberg, thence west on the canal or highway (most likely both) to Dairnyth. He can then move up the Fairmyn to Lake Eris, or beyond to deny the Harchong horde a water route beyond Lake Eris.
The new explosive
1. does any one know how much bigger a hole the new explosive is going to blow in earth and timber fortifications?
2. Delthak's new guns have a range of 15000 meters. In order to see a target that far and adjust fire on it, you have to be between 17 and 18 meters (56 and 60 ft) up AND have a very good optical device
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Re: HFQ Offical Snippet #18
Post by JeffEngel   » Mon Feb 09, 2015 5:34 pm

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EdThomas wrote:Some thoughts...
2. Do we even know the St Kylmahn exists and is about to be used against us?

The discussion of it was under SNARC observation. I don't think knowledge of it has yet percolated outside the Inner Circle, on the Charisian side.
2. Delthak's new guns have a range of 15000 meters. In order to see a target that far and adjust fire on it, you have to be between 17 and 18 meters (56 and 60 ft) up AND have a very good optical device

I don't think the maximum theoretical range is expected to get much use. But line-of-sight and data for fire adjustment could be worked around with a scout-sniper (or more likely, a small group of such) working as a forward observer with a heliograph, when Delthak can cooperate with them. That kind of cooperation with people moving along with it and operating to and from the shore is not unusual for Charis's riverine warfare.

Getting an 18 meter elevation advantage may be trickier, when Delthak is normally at the local water level. How much range would they have against targets, say, up to 10m over Delthak?
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Re: HFQ Offical Snippet #18
Post by EdThomas   » Mon Feb 09, 2015 5:39 pm

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JeffEngel wrote:Getting an 18 meter elevation advantage may be trickier, when Delthak is normally at the local water level. How much range would they have against targets, say, up to 10m over Delthak?

11,300 m range per this distance to horizon calculateo
http://www.ringbell.co.uk/info/hdist.htm
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Re: HFQ Offical Snippet #18
Post by phillies   » Mon Feb 09, 2015 8:25 pm

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EdThomas wrote:
JeffEngel wrote:Getting an 18 meter elevation advantage may be trickier, when Delthak is normally at the local water level. How much range would they have against targets, say, up to 10m over Delthak?

11,300 m range per this distance to horizon calculateo
http://www.ringbell.co.uk/info/hdist.htm



Steel mast, erectable. Guy wires to stabilize. Optics are likely not the issue. However, "at-horizon" is not optimal.

Firing at absolute maximum range may not be ideal. Rough on the rifling and less than accurate.
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Re: HFQ Offical Snippet #18
Post by n7axw   » Mon Feb 09, 2015 9:59 pm

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EdThomas wrote:
2. Do we even know the St Kylmahn exists and is about to be used against us?
3. Wouldn't it be fun if Hanth sets up a temporary blocking position on the canal feeding Evertyn and just happens to capture a couple hundred or so of the StK with a nice little supply of the new ammunition? Imagine what his Scout/snipers could do with those!


Yes. We know that the St. Klymahn exists. There is more than adequate textev for that. In addition we know that Rychtyr's reinforcements sent to Evyrtyn are equipped with them.

In addition, on your point three, from what I gather there would be no real advantage in using the St. Klymans over the Mahndrayans they already have. The rate of fire between the two is about the same. Where the advantage of the St. Klyman's came in was simplicity of design and assembly along with the possibility of being able to set up field conversions so that the church could get sizable numbers of the things into the field which was something Merlin and the inner circle had not been counting on.

Don
When any group seeks political power in God's name, both religion and politics are instantly corrupted.
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