I agree with everything you said, and the effects would likely be everything you postulated. The CoGA would likely denounce anything that flies as "demonic," which Merlin and the EoC would like to avoid, but the day will come when Clyntahn won't approve some bit of tech developed by Charis, and at that point charges of demonic weapons might actually stick because Clyntahn cannot approve a technology the church can't duplicate. The EoC has been charged with using demonic weapons before when they first developed exploding shells, until the church learned how to make the things themselves and Clyntahn gave shells the "Inquisition's Seal of Approval."Dilandu wrote:And let's not forget about the general population reaction for a aerial bombing (or even the simply leafet's drop).
For millenia, the ultimate rule for civilian in warfare was, that if you stay far enough of the frontlines (and coasts), that your would be sufficiently safe. At least, not until the frontline would go near you.
The aviation break this rule. The aviation could possibly strike anywhere in their range. No place is really safe. No city could be considered "far enough", especially if the real combat range of the enemy aircraft is unknown.
The United Kingdom was greatly hurt by zeppelins attack in 1915-1917. The direct damage wasn't big, but the morale damage was incredible. The zeppelins was able to hit any Englishman anywhere on islands; the Royal Navy couldn't stop them, the royal army couldn't stop them. Anyone suddenly found itself in danger. And the fear and panic was great.
Generally speaking, the "all mighty Britannia" era was ended by zeppelins. They demonstrated, that even on their islands, the population of Britain would not be safe anymore. And this shatter all.
For the Safehold situation, the morale damage would me far, far greater. There are would be riots. There would be whole towns evacuated, the population flee from air attacks, even if they wouldn't be directed against them. And that would be a LOT of problems for the CoGA.
However, if the CoGA can't develop dirigibles and steam engines, Clyntahn will declare that the EoC is violating the Proscriptions even though hot air to provide lift is just wind, which is permitted, and he's going to approve the steam engine, which is also based on wind, now that the church has partial plans and notes on how to build one.
No reformist is going to care one bit what Clyntahn thinks of things that their honest inquisitor has approved under the Proscriptions, and Paityr Wylsynn still has room to stretch the Proscriptions until they scream, as long as the war continues and the CoGA is desperate.
However, Merlin has a huge say in what gets developed and how it's used, and for him, (and therefore the rulers of the EoC) innocent civilians are off limits!
Merlin would have no problem with dropping leaflets on towns, although if the sight of an airship incited terror and people were trampled and killed running away when the airship posed no real danger, he'd put a stop to it. OWL's broadsheets already share the EoC's propaganda with the world, and it has the advantage of being true!
Allowing the EoC to bomb civilian targets simply won't happen - although the CoGA would love to be able to bomb the EoC! (Remember the Rakurai attacks?) Merlin's conscience is tying him in knots already, which is one reason he approved the creation of Nimue. She gives him the opportunity to face Safehold as the innocent person he was before he kicked the anthill and sped up the looming war, and got so much blood on his hands in the process, real or imagined. Since he's already sick to death of all the killing and suffering, he won't add to it with "terror weapons" that affect civilians.
Which in a way is unfortunate Dilandu, since you have some clever ideas of how effective an air campaign would be on Safehold, and how to best use airships even if they aren't used in a military role. It's Merlin's (and now Nimue's) struggle to break the church and return mankind to the stars though, and they have veto power. Cayleb and Sharley will agree, since they're into destroying their enemies with kindness and winning hearts and minds, and as one of their former foes noted, Safehold hasn't developed defenses against that sort of unscrupulous behavior!