Gloriously Foolish Predictions 4 HFQ Major Events (SPOILERS)

TN4994 wrote:

6L6 wrote:The General series, S.M. Stirling , David Drake ,a very good read while waiting for more Webber.

Thank you.

XofDallas wrote:The books, in order, are: The Forge; The Anvil; The Hammer; The Steel; The Sword. The situation in question was in the fifth book. I think you'd like them.

That being said, my snippet addiction needs a fix! Heeeeelp!

TN4994 wrote:

XofDallas wrote:The books, in order, are: The Forge; The Anvil; The Hammer; The Steel; The Sword. The situation in question was in the fifth book. I think you'd like them.

That being said, my snippet addiction needs a fix! Heeeeelp!

Temporary relief:
Jim Butcher - Dresden Files;
Kim Harrison (Dawn Cook) - Rachel Morgan series;
Kevin Hearne - The Iron Druid Chronicles;
Douglas Preston and Lincoln Child - The Relic (first in the Special Agent Pendergast series);
John Flanagan - The Ranger's Apprentice -&- The Brotherband Chronicles;
Orson Scott Card - The Ender series;
R.A. Salvatore - The Legend of Drizzt series - and more;
and of course anything by John Ringo and Eric Flint. Or you might begin with classical fictional works such as the Sumerian Epic of Gilgamesh.

XofDallas wrote:
Nine (9) Gloriously Foolish Predictions for HFQ (with subparts, of course):

...

2. (Second half of HFQ): CE launches a surprise assault on the Salthar Canal, surprisingly from the west, south of Port Salthar. The surprise enables CE to roll up the canal from an unexpected direction, and to capture the Canal largely intact. Silk Town, losing its canal and then facing a powerful fleet and potential bombardment, explores capitulation (not without violent dissention, but between Nahrman and Aivah, it becomes far easier to neutralize than was the case in Siddarmark).



5. (First third of HFQ): CE forces move north from Thesmar and take Alykberg, trapping Ahlvarez's forces. They are captured, while Ahlverez escapes.

XofDallas wrote:

XofDallas wrote:
Nine (9) Gloriously Foolish Predictions for HFQ (with subparts, of course):

...

2. (Second half of HFQ): CE launches a surprise assault on the Salthar Canal, surprisingly from the west, south of Port Salthar. The surprise enables CE to roll up the canal from an unexpected direction, and to capture the Canal largely intact. Silk Town, losing its canal and then facing a powerful fleet and potential bombardment, explores capitulation (not without violent dissention, but between Nahrman and Aivah, it becomes far easier to neutralize than was the case in Siddarmark).



5. (First third of HFQ): CE forces move north from Thesmar and take Alykberg, trapping Ahlvarez's forces. They are captured, while Ahlverez escapes.

I likely am wrong on Number 2. I hadn't looked at the maps closely enough, so I didn't realize the Salthar Mountains render Somyr the only means of viable overland travel between the Howard subcontinent and the mainland. CE interdicted overland travel by taking Somyr. No need to take the canal to accomplish that goal.

Similarly, it has to be the case that sea access to Howard has always been the primary means of commerce with Howard.

Thus, taking that canal may not have the priority I'd previously given it.

The Salthar Canal would still be a prize, if only because it could seriously shorten CE's supply route to the Gulf of Dohlar and all the things to which that body of water would give access. However, it isn't quite the prize I'd originally envisioned.

Thus, I still believe it will be targeted eventually, but perhaps not as early in the tale as I'd initially thought.

Item 5, however, looks much more likely now.

XofDallas wrote:It took me a bit to find this. I'm bumping it up, as I want to compare the predictions to the actuality and see how foolish I was.

It is less than a five-day now ...

Charybdis wrote:

XofDallas wrote:It took me a bit to find this. I'm bumping it up, as I want to compare the predictions to the actuality and see how foolish I was.

It is less than a five-day now ...

However by Board Policy, discussions of this from the Revealed Word must be considered as 'Snerk' and captioned as 'SPOILER' in the telling. It appears that the Snerk collar is valid until 11/13/15.

XofDallas wrote:
Nine (9) Gloriously Foolish Predictions for HFQ (with subparts, of course):

1. (1st half of HFQ): With respect to St. Zhana, Fairkyn and Ohlahrn in turn:

a. BGV flanks the town and straddles its supply routes, taking out any semaphore towers along the way and rebuilding them;
b. BGV scout snipers identify all storage dumps and housing for AoG troops in each city (should be easy, they should be the only buildings left). Under cover of bad weather or night, BGV shells those buildings in a mortar attack, then withdraws to the west, leaving a platoon and a mortar squad at each town to destroy supplies, additional buildings, etc. and to harass any remaining AoG troops. Said platoons set their camps about 10 mi west of each town, and interdict any supplies. Their objective is to destroy/interdict supplies, shelter and clothing, and let General Winter do the rest of their work for them.
c. At least one town enjoys good weather, so BGV has scout snipers quietly take any semaphore stations up to 40 mi west of that town before attacking, so no smoke or fires are noticed by intact semaphore stations, keeping the element of surprise.
d. BGV manages to surprise Guarnak and take it, then pushes troops south to some point where the terrain makes it easy for him to block any forces coming from Sylmahn Gap, thus trapping them and cutting off their supplies.
e. BGV sends another force north to surprise and take the town of Hyrdmyn as well.
f. BGV receives reinforcements and supplies by sea through Ranshair and through the New Northland Canal and the Guarnak/Ice Ash Canal, while repairs on the latter go apace, so the need for overland supply routes (or portions of routes) diminishes.
g. BGV destroys Wyrshym's remaining forces.
h. (By end of summer) BGV starts marching on Five Forks.

XofDallas wrote:
2. (Second half of HFQ): CE launches a surprise assault on the Salthar Canal ...

4. (About halfway through HFQ): The CoGA attempts to move the southern half of the Harchongese Army and/or its supplies to support Dohlar through the Gulf of Tanshar (Similar to how CE moved troops through Raven's Land). The CE western navy jumps all over this ...

6. (About halfway through HFQ):An attempt is made to capture/assassinate Sharleyan in Chisolm. ...

7. (Second half of HFQ): A similar attempt is made on Daivyn's life, and almost succeeds. ...

XofDallas wrote:
3. (First half of HFQ): Merlin and Nimue read and translate Kohdy's Journal. The coded entries reveal that the Societies of Chihiro/Schueler/Langhorne are who he is going to meet, and that if he doesn't return, it is because of them. ...

5. (First third of HFQ): CE forces move north from Thesmar and take Alykberg, trapping Ahlvarez's forces. They are captured, while Ahlverez escapes.

8. (Halfway through HFQ): One of the concentration camps is liberated. ...

9. Mabb Winds up killing two more sets of Schuelerites, in each case leaving messages for Clyntahn. Word gets out to the Scheulerite priests first, then to the nobility in all Temple-controlled lands, then to their military leaders, then to their troops.