HFQ Official Snippet #16

n7axw wrote:

XofDallas wrote:Can anyone give me some good estimates of troop strength for Hanth's, Eastshare's and High Mount's troops? There's a reason I'm asking.

First, Ahlverez' forces and situation. He has 35,000 of his own troops, together with 12,000 of Harless' troops. His supply situation is dire, in that he's marching overland several hundred miles, and facing forces he may or may not realize have moved. His men likely will have eaten virtually all of their horses. Finally, their unit cohesion has been shattered, but, while "[t]hey were more than a little starved, those Dohlarans, gaunt, with leaky boots and worn uniforms that came perilously close to tatters, but their weapons were well kept and clean, and they knew what to do with them."

Second, what he's facing. Hanth's troops have taken Somyr, and have marched upriver at least as far as Yairdyn. They are also facing Rychtyr's troops, whom he will want to attack with speed.

The garrison at Somyr has to be a strong one, given its location and importance. Further, Somyr looks to be about 400 km (240 mi) from Thesmar, and Yairdyn is about 300 mi from Thesmar as the crow flies (and btw, I think the maps, the way they're drawn, often give us a sense that cities and towns are closer together than they actually are).

That is one hell of a lot of territory to protect.

My point is, Ahlverez has learned a lot. He'll have scouts out, and he won't assume things have remained static at Thesmar. Hanth, if he thinks of Ahlverez at all (which he certainly will), won't know where along that 300 mile stretch of river Ahlverez might choose to attack (it's possible there are several places that are much more likely points of attack, but we don't know about them yet). If I were Hanth, I would be thinking my right flank might be kind of vulnerable.

I'm assuming Hanth will have scout sniper squads and platoons out to keep him posted, and I'm also assuming Hanth will receive seijin-quality info at some appropriate point, if he hasn't already. Nevertheless, he will have to keep a sizeable reaction force ready somewhere along the river (Cheryk seems to be the most logical point).

So, the point is, given that Hanth has to garrison Somyr adequately, keep Thesmar protected, have sufficient forces to engage Rychtyr, and guard a 300 mile long right flank, will he have the troops to do so?

If he has good, timely info, and sees to his troop dispositions wisely, perhaps. It will also help if Ahlverez doesn't have good info. Nevertheless, Ahlverez has learned some harsh lessons, and he has learned them well. Further, he and his troops are, to put it mildly, desparate. And Hanth has got to be stretched thin at this point.

This may mean the size, status and location of Eastshare's and High Mount's troops will become a factor.

Who knows what's in the inventive mind of our favorite celery addict?

Those garrisons are going to be staffed just heavy enough to hold them against attack, not heavy enough to go looking for Ahlverez. Hanth will have his forces concentrated against Rhychtar who at this point will be strongly reinforced and better supplied than Ahlverez and thus a more dangerous opponent.

Ahlverez, on the other hand, is still strong enough to defend himself against light opposition, but the last thing he wants is to court battle. Coming out right at the southern edge of that forest that surrounds Cheryk gives him the resourses he needs to raft across the Sheridan and has the merit of avoiding contact wth local garrisons....although that's not an automatic.

What could change the equation here is if DE or HM is in hot pursuit. Then Ahlverez probably won't make it.

As for numbers, my imression is that both DE and Hanth have in the range of about 70,000, not counting what HM would have after that rather brutal beating he took in the Kyplyngyr.

DE can probably pursue Ahlverez after he cleans up around Ft Tairys, but my guess is that if he does, he will be a couple 5 days behind, which would probably be what Ahlverez needs to get away.

Don

n7axw wrote:If DE pursues, Ahlverez is toast, I think. That is the real threat he faces. On the other hand, he has broken contact and is already "half way to Thesmar." Much of what I have postulated is pure guess work. With everyone moving, 10 days of lead time gets him an additional 150 miles head start. But then, that is guesswork too.

The thing is, not even the high hollows are magic. They are going to need a certain amount of time to cross the same distance. Crowd your horse more than about 20 miles a day over an extended distance and you won't have much horse left before too long.

Some of you are not going to believe this. But all things equal, a man can out walk a horse over a day's time.

So, we'll see how our beloved author plays it.

Don

McGuiness wrote:Unfortunately for the good guys, I don't believe that Hanth knows that Ahlverez is coming his way. The ICA really needs a member of the inner circle in Hanth's army - by which I mean Hanth himself! That little detail should have been taken care of months ago to avoid nasty complications like this. I expect that Ahbraim Zhevons will pay him a visit shortly.

We don't know how heavily enforced Hanth was, although we do know a lot of the troops and weapons that were sent his way went down in the big storm where the Delthak threw a line to a foundering ship and towed it all the way to Thesmar. Unfortunately for stopping Ahlverez, a goodly number of those troops have gone north, some are guarding Cheryk and most likely Trevyr by now, and there are garrisons at Thesmar and Somyr. On the bright side, the nearest cohesive CoGA troops are in full retreat. It's not entirely clear where General Rychtyr has dug in his troops after he"pulled all but a token delaying force back from his main position at Trevyr." I'd bet he ran all the way to Evrytn.

So if Ahlverez can get across the Seridahn, he can follow the road west straight into the Duchy of Reskar and escape into Dohlar with whatever is left of his ragtag army.

The ICA can cut off the flow of troops and supplies into Evrytyn by blowing locks along the canal to the west of it, which makes defending Evrytyn untenable. Of course Rychtyr would likely blow the locks to prevent the Delthak from using the canal to chase him back to Dohlar should he choose to retreat.

Keep in mind many of the CoGA troops being sent to Evrytyn have the new breech-loading rifles, so this could be the first time the ICA faces a foe that is armed with comparable weapons. (Although I'm not sure if the Dohlarans have mortars yet.) The allies would also be attacking without the advantage of having a member of the inner circle advising them. That absolutely has to change!

Should Rychtyr fall back along the canal into Dohlar itself. I expect the allies would stop at the border, assuming they pursued the retreating Dohlarans that far. Every lock on the canal would most likely be toast, since both sides have reasons to destroy them.

fallsfromtrees wrote:First of all we don't know how may locks are on that canal, and I can see Hanth striking for the canal to seize the locks. He doesn't seen to destroy them if he can interdict the supplies flowing down it, and then starve Rychtyr's army out of Evrytyn. Secondly, why would the allies stop at the border? It might well be the opportunity to knock Dohlar and Silkiah out of the war for good.

n7axw wrote:First, we don't know if DE can actually catch Ahlverez at this point. If he can't, Ahlverez gets away. Add into that chasing down Ahlverez's exhausted and poorly supplied army might not be the most important thing for DE and HM to be doing at the moment. Maybe they should be on the way to Evrytyn to join Hanth. Just a thought. Dunno.

Hanth is concentrated to deal with Rychtar. Were I organizing it, I would use local militia to man places like Thesmar and Trevyr and keep my regulars for the main party...

Just one thought in response to MacGuiness here. It seems to me like it's important to knock Dohlar out of the war before turning to deal with the Harchongians. Bringing up DE and HM to beef up Hanth's numbers might be the thing needed to accomplish that.

I wonder how quickly the Haarahlds and the cities ironclads can be brought to bear on the situation.

Don