HFQ Official Snippet #16

n7axw wrote:Probably Ahlvarez's best bet is to continue toward Thesmar and to pass north of Thesmar to the Sherdian just south of that forest Cheryk is in the middle of. Then use the trees from that forest to build rafts to ferry his troops across the river. Once across, he can slip into Silkiah and get to Dohlar that way. Of course, if he has someone like DE in Hot pursuit, this would only get him pinned to the river.

But otherwise there would be no one in easy range to engage him. I agree Ahlvarez is in no shape to be engaging anyone in battle.
Don

There's undoubtedly a fairly large contingent of allied troops defending Somyr and blocking the Desnairan supply line from Silkiah, so Ahlverez would have to get past it. That would likely have some rather brutal results, since if the raft-building scheme to cross the Seridahn worked, Ahlverez would probably be forced to leave any artillery he had with him behind.

His best bet would be to capture a few barges and set up a rope ferry to cross the river, which would allow him to bring all his supplies and artillery along - presuming that his army isn't discovered and pinned against the river by allied troops, in which case he'd spend the rest of the war as a senior POW, which is fine with me!

Once he's across the river, he can head north to Evrytyn and join the sizable Dohlaran contingent there, (where he'd actually be useful) or he can head for Silkiah and hope he can fight his way past the previously mentioned garrison at Somyr, which he doesn't know exists. If he manages that, he and the survivors of his army should eventually reach the Desnairan supplies that have accumulated along the Somyr river in northern Silkiah.

From there he can barge and march his Dohlaran troops to Port Salthar on the Gulf of Dohlar, and then make the short voyage to Gorath.

Somehow I don't think that he is going to be that lucky...

SDS* is setting in, I see.


(*Snippet Deprivation Syndrome. )

fallsfromtrees wrote:Okay, that tends to indicate he is on the CoGA side, although he MIGHT have been referring to his own - adopting the label of heretics as a badge of honor.

McGuiness wrote:

n7axw wrote:Probably Ahlvarez's best bet is to continue toward Thesmar and to pass north of Thesmar to the Sherdian just south of that forest Cheryk is in the middle of. Then use the trees from that forest to build rafts to ferry his troops across the river. Once across, he can slip into Silkiah and get to Dohlar that way. Of course, if he has someone like DE in Hot pursuit, this would only get him pinned to the river.

But otherwise there would be no one in easy range to engage him. I agree Ahlvarez is in no shape to be engaging anyone in battle.
Don

There's undoubtedly a fairly large contingent of allied troops defending Somyr and blocking the Desnairan supply line from Silkiah, so Ahlverez would have to get past it. That would likely have some rather brutal results, since if the raft-building scheme to cross the Seridahn worked, Ahlverez would probably be forced to leave any artillery he had with him behind.

His best bet would be to capture a few barges and set up a rope ferry to cross the river, which would allow him to bring all his supplies and artillery along - presuming that his army isn't discovered and pinned against the river by allied troops, in which case he'd spend the rest of the war as a senior POW, which is fine with me!

Once he's across the river, he can head north to Evrytyn and join the sizable Dohlaran contingent there, (where he'd actually be useful) or he can head for Silkiah and hope he can fight his way past the previously mentioned garrison at Somyr, which he doesn't know exists. If he manages that, he and the survivors of his army should eventually reach the Desnairan supplies that have accumulated along the Somyr river in northern Silkiah.

From there he can barge and march his Dohlaran troops to Port Salthar on the Gulf of Dohlar, and then make the short voyage to Gorath.

Somehow I don't think that he is going to be that lucky...

My own guess about that garrison is that it is probably adequate to defend the place against attack by light forces, but not much more. So he just skirts the place and leaves the garrison alone. Hanth leaves behind enough to keep his own line of supply clear. But that's minimal since he doesn't expect a major force in his rear plus the reality that to deal with a reinforced Rycthar, he needs to stay concentrated rather than strung out inviting defeat in detail.

Just looking at a map from the place I was proposing he cross the river, Ahlverez's shortest way home is straight to the Duchy of Reskar in Dohlar. Evyrtyn is a bad idea because he needs to avoid battle if at all possible.

I'm not sure what his best destination is in Dohlar, perhaps to that canal between Dohlar and Evyrtyn to re-estabish contact and supply.

Can he do that? Dunno.

Don

n7axw wrote:My own guess about that garrison is that it is probably adequate to defend the place against attack by light forces, but not much more. So he just skirts the place and leaves the garrison alone. Hanth leaves behind enough to keep his own line of supply clear. But that's minimal since he doesn't expect a major force in his rear plus the reality that to deal with a reinforced Rycthar, he needs to stay concentrated rather than strung out inviting defeat in detail.

Just looking at a map from the place I was proposing he cross the river, Ahlverez's shortest way home is straight to the Duchy of Reskar in Dohlar. Evyrtyn is a bad idea because he needs to avoid battle if at all possible.

I'm not sure what his best destination is in Dohlar, perhaps to that canal between Dohlar and Evyrtyn to re-estabish contact and supply.

Can he do that? Dunno.

Don

You're right that Ahlverez could avoid contact by skirting west of Somyr and then taking the road west into the Duchy of Reskar in Dohlar. I don't know how I missed that - except the road is a strange color on the map, so I didn't realize it was a highway, and I didn't notice that border of Dohlar was that close to Somyr.

I'm not sure how far he'd have to travel into Dohlar before a relief convoy could arrive to feed his troops, but if he managed to get there (ignoring how he crossed the Seridahn!) he'd save whatever remains of his army.

I'm not sure what a scout-sniper would think of the ragged, starving remnants of the AoS if he studied them from a distance. If he realized just how bad off Ahlverez's troops are, then sallying from Thesmar to pin them against the river is a distinct possibility. If the current commander in Thesmar doesn't come to that conclusion, he might get a visit from Ahbraim.

McGuiness wrote:

n7axw wrote:My own guess about that garrison is that it is probably adequate to defend the place against attack by light forces, but not much more. So he just skirts the place and leaves the garrison alone. Hanth leaves behind enough to keep his own line of supply clear. But that's minimal since he doesn't expect a major force in his rear plus the reality that to deal with a reinforced Rycthar, he needs to stay concentrated rather than strung out inviting defeat in detail.

Just looking at a map from the place I was proposing he cross the river, Ahlverez's shortest way home is straight to the Duchy of Reskar in Dohlar. Evyrtyn is a bad idea because he needs to avoid battle if at all possible.

I'm not sure what his best destination is in Dohlar, perhaps to that canal between Dohlar and Evyrtyn to re-estabish contact and supply.

Can he do that? Dunno.

Don

You're right that Ahlverez could avoid contact by skirting west of Somyr and then taking the road west into the Duchy of Reskar in Dohlar. I don't know how I missed that - except the road is a strange color on the map, so I didn't realize it was a highway, and I didn't notice that border of Dohlar was that close to Somyr.

I'm not sure how far he'd have to travel into Dohlar before a relief convoy could arrive to feed his troops, but if he managed to get there (ignoring how he crossed the Seridahn!) he'd save whatever remains of his army.

I'm not sure what a scout-sniper would think of the ragged, starving remnants of the AoS if he studied them from a distance. If he realized just how bad off Ahlverez's troops are, then sallying from Thesmar to pin them against the river is a distinct possibility. If the current commander in Thesmar doesn't come to that conclusion, he might get a visit from Ahbraim.

My assumption is that Ahlverez's people have at least managed to eat well enough to stay on their feet. (Shrug) If they can do that they can hold off any of the light forces in the area. If they can't, any hope they might have of getting home is mute anyhow. The working assumption here is that anything strong enough to come to grips with Ahlverez is north with Hanth and that DE has sent nothing in hot pursuit. Either of those assumptions prove wrong, Ahlverez is toast.

Don

Can anyone give me some good estimates of troop strength for Hanth's, Eastshare's and High Mount's troops? There's a reason I'm asking.

First, Ahlverez' forces and situation. He has 35,000 of his own troops, together with 12,000 of Harless' troops. His supply situation is dire, in that he's marching overland several hundred miles, and facing forces he may or may not realize have moved. His men likely will have eaten virtually all of their horses. Finally, their unit cohesion has been shattered, but, while "[t]hey were more than a little starved, those Dohlarans, gaunt, with leaky boots and worn uniforms that came perilously close to tatters, but their weapons were well kept and clean, and they knew what to do with them."

Second, what he's facing. Hanth's troops have taken Somyr, and have marched upriver at least as far as Yairdyn. They are also facing Rychtyr's troops, whom he will want to attack with speed.

The garrison at Somyr has to be a strong one, given its location and importance. Further, Somyr looks to be about 400 km (240 mi) from Thesmar, and Yairdyn is about 300 mi from Thesmar as the crow flies (and btw, I think the maps, the way they're drawn, often give us a sense that cities and towns are closer together than they actually are).

That is one hell of a lot of territory to protect.

My point is, Ahlverez has learned a lot. He'll have scouts out, and he won't assume things have remained static at Thesmar. Hanth, if he thinks of Ahlverez at all (which he certainly will), won't know where along that 300 mile stretch of river Ahlverez might choose to attack (it's possible there are several places that are much more likely points of attack, but we don't know about them yet). If I were Hanth, I would be thinking my right flank might be kind of vulnerable.

I'm assuming Hanth will have scout sniper squads and platoons out to keep him posted, and I'm also assuming Hanth will receive seijin-quality info at some appropriate point, if he hasn't already. Nevertheless, he will have to keep a sizeable reaction force ready somewhere along the river (Cheryk seems to be the most logical point).

So, the point is, given that Hanth has to garrison Somyr adequately, keep Thesmar protected, have sufficient forces to engage Rychtyr, and guard a 300 mile long right flank, will he have the troops to do so?

If he has good, timely info, and sees to his troop dispositions wisely, perhaps. It will also help if Ahlverez doesn't have good info. Nevertheless, Ahlverez has learned some harsh lessons, and he has learned them well. Further, he and his troops are, to put it mildly, desparate. And Hanth has got to be stretched thin at this point.

This may mean the size, status and location of Eastshare's and High Mount's troops will become a factor.

Who knows what's in the inventive mind of our favorite celery addict?

XofDallas wrote:
Who knows what's in the inventive mind of our favorite celery addict?

Mischief.

ParanoidMarvin wrote:

XofDallas wrote:
Who knows what's in the inventive mind of our favorite celery addict?

Mischief.

Isn't that true of most celery chasers?

XofDallas wrote:Can anyone give me some good estimates of troop strength for Hanth's, Eastshare's and High Mount's troops? There's a reason I'm asking.

First, Ahlverez' forces and situation. He has 35,000 of his own troops, together with 12,000 of Harless' troops. His supply situation is dire, in that he's marching overland several hundred miles, and facing forces he may or may not realize have moved. His men likely will have eaten virtually all of their horses. Finally, their unit cohesion has been shattered, but, while "[t]hey were more than a little starved, those Dohlarans, gaunt, with leaky boots and worn uniforms that came perilously close to tatters, but their weapons were well kept and clean, and they knew what to do with them."

Second, what he's facing. Hanth's troops have taken Somyr, and have marched upriver at least as far as Yairdyn. They are also facing Rychtyr's troops, whom he will want to attack with speed.

The garrison at Somyr has to be a strong one, given its location and importance. Further, Somyr looks to be about 400 km (240 mi) from Thesmar, and Yairdyn is about 300 mi from Thesmar as the crow flies (and btw, I think the maps, the way they're drawn, often give us a sense that cities and towns are closer together than they actually are).

That is one hell of a lot of territory to protect.

My point is, Ahlverez has learned a lot. He'll have scouts out, and he won't assume things have remained static at Thesmar. Hanth, if he thinks of Ahlverez at all (which he certainly will), won't know where along that 300 mile stretch of river Ahlverez might choose to attack (it's possible there are several places that are much more likely points of attack, but we don't know about them yet). If I were Hanth, I would be thinking my right flank might be kind of vulnerable.

I'm assuming Hanth will have scout sniper squads and platoons out to keep him posted, and I'm also assuming Hanth will receive seijin-quality info at some appropriate point, if he hasn't already. Nevertheless, he will have to keep a sizeable reaction force ready somewhere along the river (Cheryk seems to be the most logical point).

So, the point is, given that Hanth has to garrison Somyr adequately, keep Thesmar protected, have sufficient forces to engage Rychtyr, and guard a 300 mile long right flank, will he have the troops to do so?

If he has good, timely info, and sees to his troop dispositions wisely, perhaps. It will also help if Ahlverez doesn't have good info. Nevertheless, Ahlverez has learned some harsh lessons, and he has learned them well. Further, he and his troops are, to put it mildly, desparate. And Hanth has got to be stretched thin at this point.

This may mean the size, status and location of Eastshare's and High Mount's troops will become a factor.

Who knows what's in the inventive mind of our favorite celery addict?

Everyone keeps quoting Alvarez's strength as 35,000 plus 12,000 Desnairains. I can't believe that he will have any where near that number by the time he gets to the Seridahn River - he will have been suffering attrition all of the way from starvation, disease, and straggling. In fact, depending on how long it takes him to get there, he could well be down to as few as 25,000 total, and we don't know yet whether or not Eastshare as at least had a cavalry regiment or two harassing them from the read - probably not more than that, as he still has the main Dohlaran army to deal with - if only as a large number of surrendered troops, and Cayleb will not accept locking them in a concentration camp and stopping the food shipments as a way of dealing with them.

XofDallas wrote:Can anyone give me some good estimates of troop strength for Hanth's, Eastshare's and High Mount's troops? There's a reason I'm asking.

First, Ahlverez' forces and situation. He has 35,000 of his own troops, together with 12,000 of Harless' troops. His supply situation is dire, in that he's marching overland several hundred miles, and facing forces he may or may not realize have moved. His men likely will have eaten virtually all of their horses. Finally, their unit cohesion has been shattered, but, while "[t]hey were more than a little starved, those Dohlarans, gaunt, with leaky boots and worn uniforms that came perilously close to tatters, but their weapons were well kept and clean, and they knew what to do with them."

Second, what he's facing. Hanth's troops have taken Somyr, and have marched upriver at least as far as Yairdyn. They are also facing Rychtyr's troops, whom he will want to attack with speed.

The garrison at Somyr has to be a strong one, given its location and importance. Further, Somyr looks to be about 400 km (240 mi) from Thesmar, and Yairdyn is about 300 mi from Thesmar as the crow flies (and btw, I think the maps, the way they're drawn, often give us a sense that cities and towns are closer together than they actually are).

That is one hell of a lot of territory to protect.

My point is, Ahlverez has learned a lot. He'll have scouts out, and he won't assume things have remained static at Thesmar. Hanth, if he thinks of Ahlverez at all (which he certainly will), won't know where along that 300 mile stretch of river Ahlverez might choose to attack (it's possible there are several places that are much more likely points of attack, but we don't know about them yet). If I were Hanth, I would be thinking my right flank might be kind of vulnerable.

I'm assuming Hanth will have scout sniper squads and platoons out to keep him posted, and I'm also assuming Hanth will receive seijin-quality info at some appropriate point, if he hasn't already. Nevertheless, he will have to keep a sizeable reaction force ready somewhere along the river (Cheryk seems to be the most logical point).

So, the point is, given that Hanth has to garrison Somyr adequately, keep Thesmar protected, have sufficient forces to engage Rychtyr, and guard a 300 mile long right flank, will he have the troops to do so?

If he has good, timely info, and sees to his troop dispositions wisely, perhaps. It will also help if Ahlverez doesn't have good info. Nevertheless, Ahlverez has learned some harsh lessons, and he has learned them well. Further, he and his troops are, to put it mildly, desparate. And Hanth has got to be stretched thin at this point.

This may mean the size, status and location of Eastshare's and High Mount's troops will become a factor.

Who knows what's in the inventive mind of our favorite celery addict?

Those garrisons are going to be staffed just heavy enough to hold them against attack, not heavy enough to go looking for Ahlverez. Hanth will have his forces concentrated against Rhychtar who at this point will be strongly reinforced and better supplied than Ahlverez and thus a more dangerous opponent.

Ahlverez, on the other hand, is still strong enough to defend himself against light opposition, but the last thing he wants is to court battle. Coming out right at the southern edge of that forest that surrounds Cheryk gives him the resourses he needs to raft across the Sheridan and has the merit of avoiding contact wth local garrisons....although that's not an automatic.

What could change the equation here is if DE or HM is in hot pursuit. Then Ahlverez probably won't make it.

As for numbers, my imression is that both DE and Hanth have in the range of about 70,000, not counting what HM would have after that rather brutal beating he took in the Kyplyngyr.

DE can probably pursue Ahlverez after he cleans up around Ft Tairys, but my guess is that if he does, he will be a couple 5 days behind, which would probably be what Ahlverez needs to get away.

Don