HFQ Official Snippet #16

Hi Lyonheart,

Your scenario does make sense. The last textev does have Alverez on the Fort Sandfish road, but it really doesn't make sense for him to stay on it.

I wonder if he will be able to forage well enough to keep his men fed. The other question is if he will be tipped off to Hanth before running into him.

Don

ParanoidMarvin wrote:

Graydon wrote:Some sort of calcium carbide light?

Regulators, perhaps. All mechanical, and we know they are making highly compressed air.

If they're using air tools for assembly lines, they've got something close to a regulator just so the first tool on a given air line doesn't steal all the air. So a SCUBA regulator doesn't seem like much of a stretch from there.

ParanoidMarvin wrote:Carbide lights at depth, no. Carbide lights work by reacting the CaC with water to make acetylene, which is then burnt. (A) Good way to go through your air tank quickly (B) Acetylene pressurized to more than about 1 atm gauge tends to do Bad Things (welding tanks, etc. actually have the acetylene dissolved in acetone which is absorbed onto a solid but porous filling).

My guess is the KISS philosophy: they are frogmen using snorkels. Probably more discrete than the bubbles from an open circuit regulator.

EDIT: Also, having a pile of CaC in your pocket when a leak would set it ALL off is another Bad Thing.

Ok CaC lights are Right Out. (Though bulk cryogenic acetylene did give the English language the wonderful phrase "precipitous disassembly".)

Still, upon further reflection, the idea that they have to swim upstream from below the Temple forces' limit of observation, find the sunken barges, figure out a demolition plan by touch and hand signals they can't see in the dark, plant the charges they've been lugging with them, also by touch in the dark, and float home downstream seems implausibly strenuous even by demolition diver standards.

So now I'm wondering if the stick headed upstream was a snorkel for a tiny compressed-air powered submarine, thinking, no, that's crazy, they're just not there yet, maybe it's just a guy with a snorkel scouting to find the barges? But if you can't stick your head up, you can't get landmarks, so the utility of your report is going to be rather diminished. And if you can't see because it's dark, it's going to be an even worse report.

All that makes me wonder if this is the lead guy for a bunch of assault swimmers, there to take out the sentries to allow guys in boats an unopposed landing, but that gets into the distance and gear-towing issues again.

lyonheart wrote:Hi Guys,

From the quote, Ahlverez was halfway to Thesmar; ie he had traveled 300 miles in a 5day or two [perhaps 7-8 days], and was well west of the Fort Sandfish road, or roughly the north end of the 'O' in South March Lands on the LaMA South March Lands map.

At that rate he might need only another 7-8 days to reach somewhere near Thesmar but slightly west, to ford or cross the river beyond the garrison.

SNIP

hmmmmmm, thats nearly 40 miles/day, sustained for a long period maybe thats possible on the Fort Sandfish road - I dont know, don't have the real experience to know if that is plausible , especially for a badly defeated, exhausted army, but once off that road... well, I really just don't see that rate can be maintained, and still have an effective fighting force.

Here's what Earl Hankey 'snarled' at the second to last Army of Shiloh command conference at/near Karmych at the north end of the Sandfish Road:

'two hundred miles from the southern end of the damned forest, and it's four hundred miles from there to Thesmar, all of it over handfull of farm tracks'

I sort of have it in my mind that marching 20miles a day is reasonable... any more knowledgable comments welcome!

n7axw wrote:Hi Lyonheart,

Your scenario does make sense. The last textev does have Alverez on the Fort Sandfish road, but it really doesn't make sense for him to stay on it.

I wonder if he will be able to forage well enough to keep his men fed. The other question is if he will be tipped off to Hanth before running into him.

Don

Actually, the last textev has him 'halfway to Thesmar', as I quoted in my last post. That comes from a summary in the authorial voice so I think we can take it as being fairly well established.

But I agree with Isaac Newton that Lyonheart's suggested rate of progress is far too fast. They don't have a highroad once they turn west, they do have a baggage train to slow them down and if they have to forage as well, that's going to be even slower.

Randomiser wrote:

n7axw wrote:Hi Lyonheart,

Your scenario does make sense. The last textev does have Alverez on the Fort Sandfish road, but it really doesn't make sense for him to stay on it.

I wonder if he will be able to forage well enough to keep his men fed. The other question is if he will be tipped off to Hanth before running into him.

Don

Actually, the last textev has him 'halfway to Thesmar', as I quoted in my last post. That comes from a summary in the authorial voice so I think we can take it as being fairly well established.

But I agree with Isaac Newton that Lyonheart's suggested rate of progress is far too fast. They don't have a highroad once they turn west, they do have a baggage train to slow them down and if they have to forage as well, that's going to be even slower.

Halfway to Thesmar was at the end of February, the BOOM that is coming (wherever it will BOOM) is IMO early March. I agree with the Post that it is unlikely Merlin will let Hanth be caught by suprise but Hanth is quite good and will have cavalry sweeping for remnants of the Battle.

That Eastshare was cleaning up and when he could start in pursuit Alvahrez was halfway to Thesmar. He would most likely send a significant force West out of the Forest and be in a position to flank Alvahrez.

Alvahrez's best choice is to head for Dohlar by the shortest route available. He knows North/northwest is impossible, He will guess that Thesmar is not surrounded by friendly forces and this gives him a route basically towards where the snippet has Hanth on the West side of the Seridahn and south of Trevyr.

This will be a complication to Hanths plans. Cheryk is held by the ICA and is a major crossroad so Alvahrez will skirt it rather than force battle.

The key will be when and where Hanth learns Alvahrez's position. Of course he will want to delay Alvahrez and catch him in the open between his various forces and Eastshare. Also capture any crossing points on the Seridahn with the Riverboats

ParanoidMarvin wrote:Regulators, perhaps. All mechanical, and we know they are making highly compressed air. Carbide lights at depth, no. Carbide lights work by reacting the CaC with water to make acetylene, which is then burnt. (A) Good way to go through your air tank quickly (B) Acetylene pressurized to more than about 1 atm gauge tends to do Bad Things (welding tanks, etc. actually have the acetylene dissolved in acetone which is absorbed onto a solid but porous filling).

My guess is the KISS philosophy: they are frogmen using snorkels. Probably more discrete than the bubbles from an open circuit regulator.

EDIT: Also, having a pile of CaC in your pocket when a leak would set it ALL off is another Bad Thing.

I think helmet diving (which was used before SCUBA) would be more viable. However, that would take a hose from a hand-driven pump on land to the divers. I am assuming the ship is not close enough for a pressure line, because it would otherwise be visible.

SCUBA seems difficult, although possible. High pressure tank metallurgy is the biggest issue as far as I am concerned. A steel tank capable of holding 72 cu in of compressed air will last about an hour close to the surface.

Both CaC and Photoluminescence seem like nonstarters to me. The former generally requires electric arcs, while the latter requires some mildly complex organic chemistry.

I suppose that the source of CaC could be secret, aka from OWL, but I doubt it is otherwise doable.

-- Bob G

And soon we'll see if Alvarhez is just "not dumb" (like a Desnairian general) or if he is really smart.

If he is really smart, he may deduce that, if DE managed to fool him and bring behind their back another army to close the road while pretending that he is outnumbered (hich was true, in fact^^)and leading a starving army even if, in the same time, he was preparing his assault on thir position when they would turn their back on him, he may suspect that the attack on the forest road was not the only jaw of the trap and that maybe general Rychtyr met more trouble than expected...

He knows now that their information on the number of heretics was totally inaccurate. Maybe he'll realise that if the Allied had even more troops than they finally realised, they may have taken Rychtyr by surprise, too...

Ho, I Can't wait to know more...

XofDallas wrote:

So, what are his options? 1. Take Fort Sandfish and hold it hostage; 2. Take the two gun batteries (anyone else note the detail on the zoom-map we all use, showing the marshes around Fort Sandfish?). And do what with them? 3. Try, somehow, to commandeer enough seaworthy vessels to take his forces by sea to Silk Town (another interesting map item hee - the sea passage near the marshes is relatively narrow); 4. Raise hell (rape, pillage, burn) until some force arrives to defeat him (if he and his troops are suicidal, they could even turn east to do this)(in addition, his troops likely would lose whatever discipline they have at this point); 5. Journey west with the goal of smashing through any containment forces and reach Dohlaran lines; 6. Journey west or northwest with the hope of evading CE forces and rejoining Dohlaran lines; 7. Surrender; 8. Leave his forces to fight and sneak away so that he personally could reach friendly lines.

How this shakes out will be interesting, but could prove dangerous for the civilians and fields of the South March lands, and for Hanth's right flank.

JeffEngel replied:

(1-3) are all just excess ambition on the way to disaster.
(4) is a bit monstrous for him and also leads to disaster.
(8) isn't something he would do.
So I'd figure on (5) or (6) so long as they offer any hope and (7) when they do not. I could see trying to sneak off his Intendents if it gets bad before surrendering, to protect them on the one hand and to allow him to surrender on the other. Or offering them Pasquale's Grace beforehand so that they're not killed by heretics at least.

I think that he might be thinking of using makeshift rafts to cross though the passage in the marshes at night, in the hope that he can cross without being seen. I.e., option 3.

(humorous thought) I wonder if the passage is narrow enough that he could run zip lines across? Of course, the ropes he used would wear out from friction fairly quickly, but...

This would be a desperation move, but what, as observed above, is his best choice to preserve his troops?

I suspect he knows nothing of the batteries, which could come as a very unpleasant surprise.

-- Bob G

BobG wrote:SNIP

(humorous thought) I wonder if the passage is narrow enough that he could run zip lines across? Of course, the ropes he used would wear out from friction fairly quickly, but...

This would be a desperation move, but what, as observed above, is his best choice to preserve his troops?

I suspect he knows nothing of the batteries, which could come as a very unpleasant surprise.

-- Bob G

IIRC the channel is several miles wide, so zip wires would be 'interesting!'

BobG wrote:I think that he might be thinking of using makeshift rafts to cross though the passage in the marshes at night, in the hope that he can cross without being seen. I.e., option 3.

(humorous thought) I wonder if the passage is narrow enough that he could run zip lines across? Of course, the ropes he used would wear out from friction fairly quickly, but...

This would be a desperation move, but what, as observed above, is his best choice to preserve his troops?

I suspect he knows nothing of the batteries, which could come as a very unpleasant surprise.

He may think twice about going through the marshes. I believe they were described as "appearing to be impassable" and it's questionable how many Temple Loyalist marshers stayed there and are able to give Alvahrez any useful information.

As a wild guess: what if he went southeast from Fort Sandfish and tried to get across this passage between Tabbard Reach and Sandfish Bay? It's maybe a little bit wider than marsh passage.