HFQ Official Snippet #16

A few interesting offshoots from snipped 16.

First, my thoughts about cutting off the Desnarian Empire by land were perhaps too complex. I failed to take into account there (apparently) are no routes allowing roads through the Salthar Mountains. So, overland routes between Desnair (and Silkiah) and East Haven have been cut. That leaves only sea routes. When CE is finally able to "control" the Gulf of Dohlar, the Hankey Sound and Salthar Bay, it may be possible to interdict important sea routes as well. CE will not be able to cut off all commerce, but it might be able to cut off a lot of it.

An adjunct of this is that The Duchy of Silkiah will feel the squeeze as well. This may make it more amenable to work with CE by treaty or through some other diplomatic means. Silkiah would have good bargaining chips, too - intact Salthar and Silktown-Thesmar Canals, in exchange for being able to pursue its economic livelihood (commerce by water trade).

As to Rychtyr's actions, if he's abandoned Trevyr in favor of defending Evrytyn, he's abandoned all thoughts of trying to send any supplies to Ahlverez. This means Ahlverez is without supplies, with a starving force of 35,000 behind enemy lines. That's just plain dangerous.

Hanth will have been made aware of events, if only by a friendly passerby seijin, so he'll have his own screening forces out. Similarly, it's likely Eastshare is pursuing Ahlverez, and it's also possible CE's 2nd Corps could move southwest to intercept Ahlverez as well (I think this is unlikely. Some sort of significant blocking force will be needed to prevent the Army of Glacierheart or another force from coming down from the north). In the very near future, there's likely to be another fight involving Ahlverez' forces. Unless Ahlverez becomes a big enough man to surrender. I don't think that's likely given how close he is to his intendant.

Thus, while Hanth's immediate concern is to get as far north as he can, hopefully taking canal locks intact, the next biggest concern to the CE forces in the South March lands may well be what Ahlverez does with his forces. He could turn them loose to go on a rampage, or he could rein them in and keep a disciplined force around him. If the former, a lot of damage to land and civilians will be done, but his force eventually will be overrun and crushed. If he does the latter, there'll be another hard battle to be fought.

XofDallas wrote:A few interesting offshoots from snipped 16.

First, my thoughts about cutting off the Desnarian Empire by land were perhaps too complex. I failed to take into account there (apparently) are no routes allowing roads through the Salthar Mountains. So, overland routes between Desnair (and Silkiah) and East Haven have been cut. That leaves only sea routes. When CE is finally able to "control" the Gulf of Dohlar, the Hankey Sound and Salthar Bay, it may be possible to interdict important sea routes as well. CE will not be able to cut off all commerce, but it might be able to cut off a lot of it.

An adjunct of this is that The Duchy of Silkiah will feel the squeeze as well. This may make it more amenable to work with CE by treaty or through some other diplomatic means. Silkiah would have good bargaining chips, too - intact Salthar and Silktown-Thesmar Canals, in exchange for being able to pursue its economic livelihood (commerce by water trade).

As to Rychtyr's actions, if he's abandoned Trevyr in favor of defending Evrytyn, he's abandoned all thoughts of trying to send any supplies to Ahlverez. This means Ahlverez is without supplies, with a starving force of 35,000 behind enemy lines. That's just plain dangerous.

Hanth will have been made aware of events, if only by a friendly passerby seijin, so he'll have his own screening forces out. Similarly, it's likely Eastshare is pursuing Ahlverez, and it's also possible CE's 2nd Corps could move southwest to intercept Ahlverez as well (I think this is unlikely. Some sort of significant blocking force will be needed to prevent the Army of Glacierheart or another force from coming down from the north). In the very near future, there's likely to be another fight involving Ahlverez' forces. Unless Ahlverez becomes a big enough man to surrender. I don't think that's likely given how close he is to his intendant.

Thus, while Hanth's immediate concern is to get as far north as he can, hopefully taking canal locks intact, the next biggest concern to the CE forces in the South March lands may well be what Ahlverez does with his forces. He could turn them loose to go on a rampage, or he could rein them in and keep a disciplined force around him. If the former, a lot of damage to land and civilians will be done, but his force eventually will be overrun and crushed. If he does the latter, there'll be another hard battle to be fought.

Ahlverez is heading down the Fort Sandfish road and if he gets there, hed'd come out not too far from where Hanth put those two batteries to discourage any attempt to cut off his supplies to Thesmar.

On the one hand, he seems to be angling away from where Hanth would be in pursuit of Rychter if I am interpreting the map correctly. On the other hand, where does he go from there? He's cut off from home and completely out of supplies. If there was a way for him to get across the bay, he could march across Silkiah. But as it is, he looks very much trapped and waiting to be gathered in as quickly as someone gets around to it.

Don

Thank You!

XofDallas wrote:
SNIP

On the other hand, where does he go from there? He's cut off from home and completely out of supplies. If there was a way for him to get across the bay, he could march across Silkiah. But as it is, he looks very much trapped and waiting to be gathered in as quickly as someone gets around to it.

Don

He may be low on supplies but remember, he headed down the sandfish road with his Dohlarian supply train intact!

dwileye13 wrote:

XofDallas wrote:
SNIP

On the other hand, where does he go from there? He's cut off from home and completely out of supplies. If there was a way for him to get across the bay, he could march across Silkiah. But as it is, he looks very much trapped and waiting to be gathered in as quickly as someone gets around to it.

Don

He may be low on supplies but remember, he headed down the sandfish road with his Dohlarian supply train intact!

Took a while to find the Quote

He wondered if anyone had bothered to inform Duke Harless or Father Tymythy that the Dohlaran supply train had already started down the Fort Sandfish High Road. From the expressions which had greeted him, he rather doubted it.

Weber, David (2014-02-18). Like a Mighty Army (Safehold) (p. 569). Tom Doherty Associates. Kindle Edition.

How many days has it been since the end of action in the Kyplynger Forest? I would think that it has been a few days and that Ahlverez is getting very low on supplys. Idon't think that he can carry many days worth with him with out constant resupply.

Yeah, he does have a supply train, but how much actual supply at this point? The wrap up at the end of LAMA suggests that the COGA side was already on short rations and malnourished.

And with Rychtar retreating back down the Sherdian, not much in terms of supplies will reach Ahlvarez.

In fact according to Thirsk in that snippet we had a while back, nobody even knows where Ahlvarez is at, let alone supply him. It looks like big trouble to me...

Don

Thank you, David.

-- Bob G

If Ahlverez can be driven to Fort Sandfish and then encircled with a ring of fortifications he will have to come to the surrounding army to break out all the while being shelled from the sea. Could be an easy low cost victory.

Thank you, but it is clear that the hopes that the answer to "What the hell is that?" will have to wait for at least one more snippet