HFQ Official Snippet #9

Hi lyonheart,

so I'll disagree...

lyonheart wrote:Hi Anwi,
(snip)
I suspect you also recognise that the title HFQ, indicates that the alliance is no longer on the defensive as you suggest it should remain, nor in a static situation which you think RFC will maintain for another 10 books or so; but a rather successful advance against the G04 on several if not all fronts. (snip)

First, I'm not assuming a static situation - quite the contrary. However, I think (hope) that RFC will change the paradigm instead of whittling away the CoGA via a land invasion. Since Merlin doesn't know that, the choice of strategy for the current war is the issue. And I'm not convinced that an overland offensive against multiple enemies is the right way to go. Fine if it works, but the potential for reversals is high. And I don't think the EoC would be willing to risk the casualty numbers such a strategy would likely imply. Moreover, I think you're overestimating the potential speed and ease of an overland campaign with destination Zion. So, I think it would be a more defensive strategy, at least at land.
If direct action against to Go4 (well, the Inquisition) is necessary, I see the naval based raid against Zion as a likely scenario. But I think that Aivah's plotline will make that point moot.

lyonheart wrote:(snip)
Given emancipating the serfs will positively change the lives of 80+% of the population of the Border States, the Temple Lands, and Dohlar may also have such a high range of serfs, regardless of strong TL feeling, that the alliance is going to benefit from the popularity of its political program regardless of initial official opposition to its religious offering, though the success in the empire; ie Corisande, Zebediah, and Tarot indicate they should continue to expect success elsewhere as well.

Interesting question. I think Clyntahn was right in his assessment that the outer islands are inherently heretical . The grip of the Inquisition and level of indoctrination of the common populace should be significantly stronger in the countries of the remaining Go4 allies. Then, all those serfs might be hostile to the heretics. And the EoC will probably not resort to the measures you'd need to quell that insurrection.

lyonheart wrote:(snip) I believe the reformist movement is far more popular in these regions than you do, so the alliance will be well received and welcomed by the clear majority of the remaining people.

You could be right. In that case, though, it would be sufficient to engineer a popular uprising, which should be possible given the intel possibilities of the Inner Circle and Aivah's connections. I think that an (at least partial) collapse of the CoGA alliance in or after HFQ is not a remote possibility. This would change the paradigm...

lyonheart wrote:
4. Again both sides lack the troop numbers needed to fortify on such a continental scale, NTM man those fortifications afterward.
(snip)

So far and IMHO for the immediate future, advances of larger military units are bound to the major roads and canals. Those, you can block at strategic places. We've seen that in multiple instances already. This won't hold forever, but the EoC can outpace the rest of the world in innovations if it just finds the ressources.

lyonheart wrote:
(snip) implies the IDA is in no position to field the army you propose or that it will seriously threaten alliance plans since it will never leave what is still Desnari territory for now.

RFC has posted on the textev economic and financial aspects of the war, I don't expect him to give the Go4 a free pass just to keep the status quo going.

I assume they will field an army but won't be able to seriously threaten defensive positions of the ICA. Interrupting lines of communication of the ICA and/or endangering rear areas (cavalry) is quite another matter, though...
As to the status quo: Nope, he won't do that. But he needs to create tension, i.e. some uncertainty about the eventual outcome of military engagements. Otherwise, he could as well skip that part of the story and continue 17 years later....

lyonheart wrote:
(snip)
The current war will end in a year or two at most, before further AoG etc armies can be raised or effectively trained, assuming the Go4 had a clue what ICA tactics really were etc;
(snip)

I agree on the time estimate, but not on the reason for ending the war. It won't be a purely military defeat, IMHO. And whatever happens, it'll lead to another conflict with a more potent adversary.
I mean, we've seen all that fancy tech in Nimue's cave, so RFC is likely planning on using that during the series. So either it's a time lapse or he surprises us with something unexpected. It's prefer the latter...

Hi Anwi,

Good points!

Since DE and EHM will only advance after dealing with the MHoGatA sub armies, the resistance to their advance is going to be minimal as they drive through the Border States, which will be collapsing or dealing with their local levelers who won't be taken in by the inquisition, seeing how they were played in the republic.

I expect the local serfs to wait and see if the alliance carries out its pledge to free all serfs, between the broadsides and the alliance keeping its word, I suspect many nominally TL serfs to start leaning toward the alliance and the message of the reformists.

Will there be opposition and some harassment of alliance forces in country?

Of course, but it will be far less than Clyntahn expected, but not Duchairn, and too little to stop the alliance, especially if most of the supplies they're taking are ex-CoGA for the armies that were.

At most, the alliance will advance due west across the Border States in only two places; from the Charayn Canal and possibly in the northern end of the Langhorne Canal after Symkyn probably cuts off the MHoGatA's northern sub army group [AGN] supply line, while DE marches along the gulf coast then up the Sabana River after dealing with Dohlar.

Given the Border States produced 204,000 rifles over approximately 3 years, that's just over 20 per day per country, which doesn't bode well to replace them in a few month's time.

So far the ICA has lost roughly 12,000 combat casualties in 6 month's that we have figures for, a 2,000 per month loss rate isn't likely to put the inner circle on a defensive mindset.

Nynian's operation will be dramatic, but won't end the war suddenly.

Even if Clyntahn is killed and repudiated, Siddarmark will insist on remunerative terms Duchairn currently can't concede, even if he wanted to.

He might abandon Dohlar and the Border states, with all the obvious negatives, to buy them off, assuming he's successful, which I'm not.

L

anwi wrote:Hi lyonheart,

so I'll disagree...

lyonheart wrote:Hi Anwi,
(snip)
I suspect you also recognise that the title HFQ, indicates that the alliance is no longer on the defensive as you suggest it should remain, nor in a static situation which you think RFC will maintain for another 10 books or so; but a rather successful advance against the G04 on several if not all fronts. (snip)

First, I'm not assuming a static situation - quite the contrary. However, I think (hope) that RFC will change the paradigm instead of whittling away the CoGA via a land invasion. Since Merlin doesn't know that, the choice of strategy for the current war is the issue. And I'm not convinced that an overland offensive against multiple enemies is the right way to go. Fine if it works, but the potential for reversals is high. And I don't think the EoC would be willing to risk the casualty numbers such a strategy would likely imply. Moreover, I think you're overestimating the potential speed and ease of an overland campaign with destination Zion. So, I think it would be a more defensive strategy, at least at land.
If direct action against to Go4 (well, the Inquisition) is necessary, I see the naval based raid against Zion as a likely scenario. But I think that Aivah's plotline will make that point moot.

lyonheart wrote:(snip)
Given emancipating the serfs will positively change the lives of 80+% of the population of the Border States, the Temple Lands, and Dohlar may also have such a high range of serfs, regardless of strong TL feeling, that the alliance is going to benefit from the popularity of its political program regardless of initial official opposition to its religious offering, though the success in the empire; ie Corisande, Zebediah, and Tarot indicate they should continue to expect success elsewhere as well.

Interesting question. I think Clyntahn was right in his assessment that the outer islands are inherently heretical . The grip of the Inquisition and level of indoctrination of the common populace should be significantly stronger in the countries of the remaining Go4 allies. Then, all those serfs might be hostile to the heretics. And the EoC will probably not resort to the measures you'd need to quell that insurrection.

lyonheart wrote:(snip) I believe the reformist movement is far more popular in these regions than you do, so the alliance will be well received and welcomed by the clear majority of the remaining people.

You could be right. In that case, though, it would be sufficient to engineer a popular uprising, which should be possible given the intel possibilities of the Inner Circle and Aivah's connections. I think that an (at least partial) collapse of the CoGA alliance in or after HFQ is not a remote possibility. This would change the paradigm...

lyonheart wrote:
4. Again both sides lack the troop numbers needed to fortify on such a continental scale, NTM man those fortifications afterward.
(snip)

So far and IMHO for the immediate future, advances of larger military units are bound to the major roads and canals. Those, you can block at strategic places. We've seen that in multiple instances already. This won't hold forever, but the EoC can outpace the rest of the world in innovations if it just finds the ressources.

lyonheart wrote:
(snip) implies the IDA is in no position to field the army you propose or that it will seriously threaten alliance plans since it will never leave what is still Desnari territory for now.

RFC has posted on the textev economic and financial aspects of the war, I don't expect him to give the Go4 a free pass just to keep the status quo going.

I assume they will field an army but won't be able to seriously threaten defensive positions of the ICA. Interrupting lines of communication of the ICA and/or endangering rear areas (cavalry) is quite another matter, though...
As to the status quo: Nope, he won't do that. But he needs to create tension, i.e. some uncertainty about the eventual outcome of military engagements. Otherwise, he could as well skip that part of the story and continue 17 years later....

lyonheart wrote:
(snip)
The current war will end in a year or two at most, before further AoG etc armies can be raised or effectively trained, assuming the Go4 had a clue what ICA tactics really were etc;
(snip)

I agree on the time estimate, but not on the reason for ending the war. It won't be a purely military defeat, IMHO. And whatever happens, it'll lead to another conflict with a more potent adversary.
I mean, we've seen all that fancy tech in Nimue's cave, so RFC is likely planning on using that during the series. So either it's a time lapse or he surprises us with something unexpected. It's prefer the latter...

runsforcelery wrote:

Aethor wrote:- No scuttling charges? Come on? A few barrels of gunpowder would send this ship to the bottom before Desnairians could capture it. That a number of the crew would die (or even all of them) is a moot point, since Desnairians killed them anyway, and any captured alive would suffer Question and Punishment.
Scuttling charges are a >>cheap<< way to prevent your weapons from being captured by the enemy.

You do not go around planting explosives aboard your own vessels "just in case" under those circumstances, nor do you ask your personnel to blow themselves up to prevent capture. They may choose to blow themselves up if something catastrophic happens, but that's rather a different proposition.

Why not? "If captured, you will be murdered if you're lucky, tortured and murdered if you aren't." Every single Charisian ship should have scuttling charges on it, and every single ship should have multiple people taught how to set them off, and when to set them off so as to cause maximum damage to whomever is capturing the ship.

Strategically, this gets rid of the concept of "private" CoG Commerce Raiders, because there's no prizes to pay the bills. Morally, this keeps your people from being tortured. Practically, this makes the CoG and its adherents pay for their utterly vile treatment of captured Charisians.

Win - win - win. What possible reason is there for NOT doing that?

No one goes sailing around with armed explosives that can sink a ship. Everything that could sink a ship in that fashion is expressly stored such that you can't set them off easily. You'd be losing far more ships through misadventure than any you'd mercifully spare from capture.

Duckk wrote:No one goes sailing around with armed explosives that can sink a ship. Everything that could sink a ship in that fashion is expressly stored such that you can't set them off easily. You'd be losing far more ships through misadventure than any you'd mercifully spare from capture.

Recall the temple powder barge that blew up in the locks due merely to "insignificant" friction.

tootall wrote:

Duckk wrote:No one goes sailing around with armed explosives that can sink a ship. Everything that could sink a ship in that fashion is expressly stored such that you can't set them off easily. You'd be losing far more ships through misadventure than any you'd mercifully spare from capture.

Recall the temple powder barge that blew up in the locks due merely to "insignificant" friction.

Barges are not ships. Just big floating containers.

No real captain responsible for its safety. Lots of inquisitors terrorizing the handlers. ==> BOOOOMMMM!!!

Tanstaafl wrote:

Duckk wrote:No one goes sailing around with armed explosives that can sink a ship. Everything that could sink a ship in that fashion is expressly stored such that you can't set them off easily. You'd be losing far more ships through misadventure than any you'd mercifully spare from capture.

tootall wrote:Recall the temple powder barge that blew up in the locks due merely to "insignificant" friction.

Barges are not ships. Just big floating containers.

No real captain responsible for its safety. Lots of inquisitors terrorizing the handlers. ==> BOOOOMMMM!!!

The barrels on the barge were carefully packed, with cushioning layers of straw between the barrels. It was a minor crack that allowed a small amount of gunpowder to sift out. There was no evidence that the inquisitors were doing any terrorizing of the handlers until after the explosion.

Do you think it is just possible that on a ship on the high seas that a barrel of gunpowder might shift and get cracked due to oh say a storm?

Yeah, freak accidents happen. That's why they're called freak accidents. You don't want to undertake procedures that would massively increase the chances of them happening. Special precautions are already taken when storing gunpowder on a ship. You don't weaken those precautions for day in, day out operation unless you have a death wish.