So you want to fly? What, When, Where, Why, How

Zakharra wrote:

SWM wrote:Why wouldn't he? I've been assuming that, once the Proscriptions are voided and the Truth revealed, that Merlin would put the manufacturing capabilities of the cave to creating the initial technology to jumpstart Safehold, letting them leapfrog over some intervening technologies. This is exactly why I believe that Safehold won't bother with internal combustion engines.

Why not? Because most people of Safehold, including the citizens of Charis won't believe the Truth. It's (of the Federation and humanity's real history) too far fetched to be believed. Most Charisians (Charisni? Charisanni?) problem with the Church is the abuse of power and that the Church's abuse of power is allowing the Gang of Four to try to literally genocide their nation. It's not with the philosophy and teachings of the Church itself. So saying that their entire religion is a Lie will impact the entire planet to its core.

Merlin's purpose is to get Safehold to change, on its own. To outgrow the Proscriptions and develop a more modern mindset (with a few pushes here and there to keep the process moving). As fart as I know it was not to, when the OBS is taken out, to just throw open the doors of Federation technology and skip past 200 plus years of technological development. Right now and for awhile yet, the vast majority of Safehold's population isn't ready for that. It would be, literally, taking the power of the Angels and God himself, into mortal hands. I think most of the world, including Charis, would see that as an Evil thing. Not good. The current world mentality that Merlin is struggling against, that bone deep belief almost everyone has, is what has to change and for that to happen, that means everyone alive has to die so their children and grand children and great grandchildren will be much more inclined to embrace the new ways with much less reservations.

Remember this is a plan that will take generations to do and Merlin has nothing if not time. The Ghaba (?) rarely, if ever, expand beyond their territory so it's time that they have to grow Safehold into the galactic power it needs to be to survive the war that will come.

Also, right now, the only places that Merlin would be able to introduce said Federation tech would be in Charis and -maybe- Siddermark, in very very limited numbers simply because the tech is so advanced there would only be a few places that they would be put in, and only in those places would anything be able to be bought and/or fixed of that technology. So far Merlin's plan is a somewhat slow step by step process that is introducing more modern technologies to Safehold at a rate they can take and more importantly, understand. That's very important, that the average person has a chance of understanding the technology that they are seeing. I figure once they reach computers (1990-early 2000 levels), they can skip more because the basic theories will at least be understood and most people won't have heart attacks at seeing forces reserved for God and the Angels being sullied by mere mortal (and heretic) hands.

I also think that the cave will allow Merlin and Co to cheat and help give the technological development, but Merlin's plan is to get it so the Safeholdians are doling innovation on their own without him getting behind it and pushing.

SWM wrote:The original plan was for it to take generations. In that plan, it would be a hundred years or more before the Truth is revealed. But that was when David planned on having each book deal with a different generation of Safeholdians. Now he says that the Truth will be revealed in twenty years.

David has accelerated the timetable. After the Archangels return, there is going to be some kind of conflict. The Truth will be revealed, and I think the Archangels will be exposed. I think things will happen such that a lot more people will believe than you think. I expect that after the Truth is revealed and some people (not all of Safehold, but some) want to start trying out some of the technology that has been revealed, Merlin will use the cave manufacturing to produce some pieces of medium-level tech which will serve as the tools to make the tools for higher tech. That's what I'm talking about. And that would let people leapfrog over some of the intervening tech. This won't rob people of their innovation--it will enable them to vastly increase the scope of their innovation. He won't be building the end products, just the starting points for advanced tech. IMHO.

Internal combustion engines is one of the things that I suspect will be jumped over, because setting up IC engines on a large scale requires a massive infrastructure. A few people might experiment with such engines, but the infrastructure for widescale use will never be built because other tech will supercede it too quickly. As for that part of the world that still believes all of this is heresy, they won't be using IC engines either because they are clearly Shan-wei's engines. They even use Langhorne's Rakurai!

PeterZ wrote:I believe RFC's point was that refinement of the allowed tech prepared Safehold for a variety of innovations. Arabic numerals was probably the missing link to quite a few delayed innovations. Except for the Arabic numerals, most of the underlying tech has been there for quite a while. The impending innovative explosion held in check because as Irys said the adjective "Innovative" is a pejorative. Charis has turned that adjective almost totally positive. The rest of Safehold hasn't even tried.

So I don't see that groundwork in itself leading to greater innovation without a complete repudiation of the Proscriptions.

n7axw wrote:I really don't dissagree with what you are saying, Peter. It is true that even without the inquisition to enforce them, for many it will take generations for the moral force of the proscriptions to die.

Just a countervailing thought, however... RFC has made the comment that Safehold, not just Charis, is an explosion of innovation waiting to happen. I don't recall where he said that--it might have been the pearls. Those may not have been his exact words, but they do reflect his thought.

So maybe it will happen faster than either of us believe.

Don

alj_sf wrote:Proscriptions are the main chokehold, but not the only one.

Having a balanced allowed level of tech allowing a much healthier level of life than in corresponding eras on Earth means that the need to improve it is simply not here outside of Charis. And the situation of the serfs in Harchong or the poors in Zion is due to social constraints not lack of innovation. In fact, if there was not a war going on, consequences of industrialization (child labor, pollution, no safety regulations, displacing regular trades, aggregation of wealth inherent to industry economy) would likely decreases that level of life for the lower percentiles. Luckily, Charis powers are aware of that and work equally to manage those bad aspects.

So you need another fuel for innovation, and that can only come from education. Rote learning is the great killer here and without introducing critical thinking and scientific method you won't make progress. Charis is well on its way to there due to an enlightened leadership, but the mainland will have to shed deferral to Church first, and that will take at least a generation. And the social consequences will be far greater than simply innovation.
People are always more conservative on social mores than anything else.

As for Safehold being ready to burst, that means that the limits of the writ have been reached, and there is always curious minds, but it can only happen if the social mores are eased first, I think. The war is doing a lot for that here, no doubt that Siddamark will embrace this path quickly now.

PeterZ wrote:
As for education, that direct interface tool Merlin has will speed up education quite nicely once the Proscriptions have been repudiated. Having OWL focus on building those devices and the implants will expedite the time to educate Safehold. Educating adults without implants will take time but the entire process won't take generations.

Tanstaafl wrote:Peter,

I think you are too optimistic. Even with the implants and the Neural Education and Training (NEAT) machine you need teachers and coaches for the children. And not all parents are willing to let those Shan-Wei worshippers tamper with their children. It will take generations.

What brings me back to my pet hobbyhorse. Collect war orphans young enough to receive the implants, bring them to Nimue’s cave, have them raised there by members of the sisterhoods Saint Duckk - redacted and Saint Khody under the tutelage of Owl and in twenty years you have a cadre of hundreds of 24th century teachers and seijins.
Three generations later it can be accepted practice on most of safehold to give newborns the implants and have enough NEAT’s available to teach them.

Weird Harold wrote:Where are you going?

What are you going to do?

Where are you going to land?

PeterZ wrote:That's why my estimate is predicated on concrete proof that the archangels were not divine but human. Absent that sort of proof, I agree with your timetable.

PeterZ wrote:
I totally support your hobby horse, TANSTAAFL. My own is the importation of Harchong and Desnari serfs and slaves to Siddermark and the EoC. Whether that's from helping escaped slaves or outright buying them and setting them free within the Empire or Siddermark.

Tanstaafl wrote:

PeterZ wrote:That's why my estimate is predicated on concrete proof that the archangels were not divine but human. Absent that sort of proof, I agree with your timetable.

Some time ago a guy named Christopher Columbus sailed west, convinced that the earth was round.
Until about a century ago there were, in our western world, serious thriving societies convinced and trying to proof that the earth is flat. Spaceflight killed the last remnants of them.

Delivering proof and convincing over a billion people that your proof is true are two different things. Given peoples capacity to cling to their convictions I expect the Church of Langhorn to be the main church on Safehold when the Gbaba are met again.

My timetable was based on proof and that small army of well-educated young people to show and explain that proof to those multitudes.

But perhaps I am a bit of a pessimist.