So you want to fly? What, When, Where, Why, How

[quote="Michael Everett"]Given the current tech level of Safehold, Zeppelins (or similar) would be the best form of flying device to use.
Zeppelins wouldn't need much (if any) armour as they'd routinely operate above the height that Safeholdian artillery could reach, allowing them to scout out where the enemy is, drop bombs and/or propaganda leaflets, resupply field forces by airdrop, deploy parachutists (steel thistle silk again) etc etc.
[quote]

The original German flug abwehr kannonen (FLAK) were directed against French ballons going into and out of Paris during the Franco-Prussian War in 1870-1871. This means that these sky-ships would be flying at roughly 1,000 to 1,500 meters above ground level.

[quote="Michael Everett"]Church troopers seeing these Sky-Ships for the first time would probably break and run. Their very existence would seriously hamper church resupply tactics as a single bomb on a road or canal could take it out of commission for weeks, making an already shaky situation catastrophic. [quote]

The psychological shock of seeing a sky-ship will quickly wear off. It didn't take the Germans on the Western Front in World War I long to adapt to seeing the first British tanks.

The circular error probable of a sky-ship dropping a dumb bomb on a point target from that altitude is measured in hundreds of meters. Thus the probability of hitting and destroying a point target with a single bomb is low. The carrying capacity of any early sky-ship is also likely to be low even with the help of Owl's database. Remember the many bridge attacks in the movie "The Bridges of Toko-Ri" which was set in the Korean War (1950-1953). Also remember the American experience of repeatedly trying to drop the Thanh Hoa Bridge in North Vietnam during that war with iron/dumb bombs. The bridge was dropped in one mission using precision guided munitions.

Philip Stanley wrote:Are there any bamboo or bamboo-like plants growing on Safehold? It would probably be the strongest-for-weight material to use as frame members on planes. Bamboo has been used for some pretty high-stress applications on old Earth, for everything from bicycles to radar domes to scaffolding. You'd probably have to have a really good glue technology to make it work, though.
Philip Stanley

I would think it is almost guaranteed that bamboo or an analogue exists on Safehold. We know Shan-wei and team geneticly engineered native Safeholdian plants and Earth plants when teraforming to maximize their utility for the wind and muscle power society that was to follow. Why bamboo would be overlooked when it natively has so much utility would be a puzzler.

Theemile wrote:

Philip Stanley wrote:Are there any bamboo or bamboo-like plants growing on Safehold? It would probably be the strongest-for-weight material to use as frame members on planes. Bamboo has been used for some pretty high-stress applications on old Earth, for everything from bicycles to radar domes to scaffolding. You'd probably have to have a really good glue technology to make it work, though.
Philip Stanley

I would think it is almost guaranteed that bamboo or an analogue exists on Safehold. We know Shan-wei and team geneticly engineered native Safeholdian plants and Earth plants when teraforming to maximize their utility for the wind and muscle power society that was to follow. Why bamboo would be overlooked when it natively has so much utility would be a puzzler.

Wouldn't the development of really strong adhesives require a sophistocated chemical industry? Which I'm thinking is is a generation or two away. Are there naturally occurring adhesives stronger than that which comes from the hooves of old or slow horses?

SWM wrote:

Zakharra wrote: Unless Merlin used the manufacturing base in OWL's cave to build a Federation level manufacturing unit to make the Federation level technology of skimmers and such, Safehold is going to have to advance through every technological step to being able to understand as a society modern (Federation level) technologies. Just handing out the advanced tech base (which would have tom by its scarcity, only go to a few places at first, which would severely limit control of it) isn't serving Merlin's purpose.

Why wouldn't he? I've been assuming that, once the Proscriptions are voided and the Truth revealed, that Merlin would put the manufacturing capabilities of the cave to creating the initial technology to jumpstart Safehold, letting them leapfrog over some intervening technologies. This is exactly why I believe that Safehold won't bother with internal combustion engines.

Why not? Because most people of Safehold, including the citizens of Charis won't believe the Truth. It's (of the Federation and humanity's real history) too far fetched to be believed. Most Charisians (Charisni? Charisanni?) problem with the Church is the abuse of power and that the Church's abuse of power is allowing the Gang of Four to try to literally genocide their nation. It's not with the philosophy and teachings of the Church itself. So saying that their entire religion is a Lie will impact the entire planet to its core.

Merlin's purpose is to get Safehold to change, on its own. To outgrow the Proscriptions and develop a more modern mindset (with a few pushes here and there to keep the process moving). As fart as I know it was not to, when the OBS is taken out, to just throw open the doors of Federation technology and skip past 200 plus years of technological development. Right now and for awhile yet, the vast majority of Safehold's population isn't ready for that. It would be, literally, taking the power of the Angels and God himself, into mortal hands. I think most of the world, including Charis, would see that as an Evil thing. Not good. The current world mentality that Merlin is struggling against, that bone deep belief almost everyone has, is what has to change and for that to happen, that means everyone alive has to die so their children and grand children and great grandchildren will be much more inclined to embrace the new ways with much less reservations.

Remember this is a plan that will take generations to do and Merlin has nothing if not time. The Ghaba (?) rarely, if ever, expand beyond their territory so it's time that they have to grow Safehold into the galactic power it needs to be to survive the war that will come.

Also, right now, the only places that Merlin would be able to introduce said Federation tech would be in Charis and -maybe- Siddermark, in very very limited numbers simply because the tech is so advanced there would only be a few places that they would be put in, and only in those places would anything be able to be bought and/or fixed of that technology. So far Merlin's plan is a somewhat slow step by step process that is introducing more modern technologies to Safehold at a rate they can take and more importantly, understand. That's very important, that the average person has a chance of understanding the technology that they are seeing. I figure once they reach computers (1990-early 2000 levels), they can skip more because the basic theories will at least be understood and most people won't have heart attacks at seeing forces reserved for God and the Angels being sullied by mere mortal (and heretic) hands.

I also think that the cave will allow Merlin and Co to cheat and help give the technological development, but Merlin's plan is to get it so the Safeholdians are doling innovation on their own without him getting behind it and pushing.

Merlin is already cheating to assist tech development. Remember that how steam was introduced skipped almost 150 years of evolution here on earth. I presume that the cheating will contine in other ways as well.

That being said, I generally agree with your main point.

Don

The circular error probable of a sky-ship dropping a dumb bomb on a point target from that altitude is measured in hundreds of meters. Thus the probability of hitting and destroying a point target with a single bomb is low. The carrying capacity of any early sky-ship is also likely to be low even with the help of Owl's database. Remember the many bridge attacks in the movie "The Bridges of Toko-Ri" which was set in the Korean War (1950-1953). Also remember the American experience of repeatedly trying to drop the Thanh Hoa Bridge in North Vietnam during that war with iron/dumb bombs. The bridge was dropped in one mission using precision guided munitions.[/quote]

Actually a rigid airship in some circumstances would have GREATER accuracy than a plane dropped bomb. A ship flying into the wind at the same or nearly the same speed would for all practical purposes be standing still. If targets were pathfound with smoke bombs to find ground level winds, accuracy would be in the tens of yards or better.

I would add one more quibble to yours, Don.

Merlin wants an innovative society capable of adapting existing resources into effective solutions to seemingly insurmountable problems. The only option he has right now is to let Safeholdians learn by experience. Even then every new innovation has to overcome a moral hurdle before it can be fully accepted by society. It helps that there is one judge for what is acceptable. The down side is that the Inner Circle is in a war to destroy the moral authority of that judge. Without the moral authority of the inquisition to either bless or condemn an innovation, every new idea has to gain acceptance by the public at large.

Unless the moral authority of the Proscriptions itself is destroyed, most Safeholdians will still use the Proscriptions as a moral guide to what sort of tech is acceptable. The only way to destroy that authority is if the archangels themselves lose their authority. Safehold heeds only proof for this sort of moral question. That suggests to me that the Sleeper has to be part of destroying that moral authority, either willingly or not.

If the moral qualms to innovation are removed, those teaching devices Merlin has can provide both information and patterns of thought that can spread the ability to innovate quite quickly without letting Safeholdians learn by their own experience. Yes, that also requires changes in societal structures, but needs to happen before meeting the Gbaba anyway.

n7axw wrote:Merlin is already cheating to assist tech development. Remember that how steam was introduced skipped almost 150 years of evolution here on earth. I presume that the cheating will contine in other ways as well.

That being said, I generally agree with your main point.

Don

PeterZ wrote:I would add one more quibble to yours, Don.

Merlin wants an innovative society capable of adapting existing resources into effective solutions to seemingly insurmountable problems. The only option he has right now is to let Safeholdians learn by experience. Even then every new innovation has to overcome a moral hurdle before it can be fully accepted by society. It helps that there is one judge for what is acceptable. The down side is that the Inner Circle is in a war to destroy the moral authority of that judge. Without the moral authority of the inquisition to either bless or condemn an innovation, every new idea has to gain acceptance by the public at large.

Unless the moral authority of the Proscriptions itself is destroyed, most Safeholdians will still use the Proscriptions as a moral guide to what sort of tech is acceptable. The only way to destroy that authority is if the archangels themselves lose their authority. Safehold heeds only proof for this sort of moral question. That suggests to me that the Sleeper has to be part of destroying that moral authority, either willingly or not.

If the moral qualms to innovation are removed, those teaching devices Merlin has can provide both information and patterns of thought that can spread the ability to innovate quite quickly without letting Safeholdians learn by their own experience. Yes, that also requires changes in societal structures, but needs to happen before meeting the Gbaba anyway.

n7axw wrote:Merlin is already cheating to assist tech development. Remember that how steam was introduced skipped almost 150 years of evolution here on earth. I presume that the cheating will contine in other ways as well.

That being said, I generally agree with your main point.

Don

I really don't dissagree with what you are saying, Peter. It is true that even without the inquisition to enforce them, for many it will take generations for the moral force of the proscriptions to die.

Just a countervailing thought, however... RFC has made the comment that Safehold, not just Charis, is an explosion of innovation waiting to happen. I don't recall where he said that--it might have been the pearls. Those may not have been his exact words, but they do reflect his thought.

So maybe it will happen faster than either of us believe.

Don

n7axw wrote:
Just a countervailing thought, however... RFC has made the comment that Safehold, not just Charis, is an explosion of innovation waiting to happen. I don't recall where he said that--it might have been the pearls. Those may not have been his exact words, but they do reflect his thought.

So maybe it will happen faster than either of us believe.

Don

One thing to note though, that innovation explosion that was going to happen, would have started at the tech level Merlin showed up in. It would have been starting, possible, with some of the innovations Merlin introduced with the naval cannon and galleon sail plans, possibly better rifled guns and such. Stuff like that. It certainly would not have been with steam engines and the like (at first).

That being said, given what's happened, I think that many Safeholders will grab what they are seeing and go with that. The outlet that would have been used for lower tech innovations being redirected to something different.

I believe RFC's point was that refinement of the allowed tech prepared Safehold for a variety of innovations. Arabic numerals was probably the missing link to quite a few delayed innovations. Except for the Arabic numerals, most of the underlying tech has been there for quite a while. The impending innovative explosion held in check because as Irys said the adjective "Innovative" is a pejorative. Charis has turned that adjective almost totally positive. The rest of Safehold hasn't even tried.

So I don't see that groundwork in itself leading to greater innovation without a complete repudiation of the Proscriptions.

n7axw wrote:I really don't dissagree with what you are saying, Peter. It is true that even without the inquisition to enforce them, for many it will take generations for the moral force of the proscriptions to die.

Just a countervailing thought, however... RFC has made the comment that Safehold, not just Charis, is an explosion of innovation waiting to happen. I don't recall where he said that--it might have been the pearls. Those may not have been his exact words, but they do reflect his thought.

So maybe it will happen faster than either of us believe.

Don