Building the Peace

The general consensus is that the initial war against the G4 is going to be over in the next year or two. So the question becomes, what does Charis need to do to (to borrow a phrase from the High Ridge government) Build the Peace

First thing is probably build a steam powered merchant marine, and start trying to exploit the petroleum resources of the planet.

Raise the standard of living on the mainland to the greatest extent possible, starting with Siddarmark, but expanding into the other nations.

Build a rail network on the mainland where there are not canals. Put steam barges on the canals.

What else?

fallsfromtrees wrote:The general consensus is that the initial war against the G4 is going to be over in the next year or two. So the question becomes, what does Charis need to do to (to borrow a phrase from the High Ridge government) Build the Peace

First thing is probably build a steam powered merchant marine, and start trying to exploit the petroleum resources of the planet.

Raise the standard of living on the mainland to the greatest extent possible, starting with Siddarmark, but expanding into the other nations.

Build a rail network on the mainland where there are not canals. Put steam barges on the canals.

What else?

For the disabled veterans who are able and don't want to live on their pensions, start a workfare system to build and maintain public works programs.

I'd say it depends largely on whether or not 1. the current war ends in total victory or 2. in some kind of treaty/armistice. I do not think that Clyntahn would ever agree to peace, so I am assuming in the second case that he has been overthrown and Charis is dealing with a somewhat reformed CoG, most likely under the leadership of Duchairn.

If Charis has achieved total victory, overthrown the proscriptions, and disabled the OBS then I say the introduction and development of electricity is the #1 postwar priority. I would also expect a huge shift in industrial output from military based production to civilian infrastructure.

On the other hand if the current war ends in a treaty/armistice then we are likely to have a cold war type situation, in which case priorities are going to be very different. In this scenario, maintaining a strong military is going to be high on the list of Charis's priorities. Electricity can't be introduced as long as the OBS exists, but I would expect Charis to continue to push further advances in areas such as steam, metallurgy, and pneumatics. Diplomacy, education, and propoganda would also all be important would also all be important in a situation like this.

Henry Brown wrote:I'd say it depends largely on whether or not 1. the current war ends in total victory or 2. in some kind of treaty/armistice. I do not think that Clyntahn would ever agree to peace, so I am assuming in the second case that he has been overthrown and Charis is dealing with a somewhat reformed CoG, most likely under the leadership of Duchairn.

If Charis has achieved total victory, overthrown the proscriptions, and disabled the OBS then I say the introduction and development of electricity is the #1 postwar priority. I would also expect a huge shift in industrial output from military based production to civilian infrastructure.

On the other hand if the current war ends in a treaty/armistice then we are likely to have a cold war type situation, in which case priorities are going to be very different. In this scenario, maintaining a strong military is going to be high on the list of Charis's priorities. Electricity can't be introduced as long as the OBS exists, but I would expect Charis to continue to push further advances in areas such as steam, metallurgy, and pneumatics. Diplomacy, education, and propoganda would also all be important would also all be important in a situation like this.

I think people are wearing rose coloured glasses when they speak of Clyntahn being overthrown. It ain't going to happen. Unlike Hitler, whose army General staff was still in charge of the Army, although not the Gestapo or SS, if Clyntahn were assassinated, the inquisition would still control the army as well as having the only viable force within the confines of Zion*. Who ever assassinated him would immediately be seized and put to the question, Rayno would immediately purge the remained of the Go4, Grand Vicar Eric would immediately deplore the influence of Shan-wei on them, the inquisitors would run riot through the vicarate purging everyone in sight "just in case". The only difference Clyntahn's assassination might make is to have the senior inquisitors return to Zion to elect a new head of the inquisition, thus leaving the armies temporarily leaderless.

When I speak of viable force, I really mean "able to operate within the temple". Although Nynian Rychtair's group of assassins may be able to depending on their real identities (ie, members of the vicarate) although I doubt it from the text we have had about the vicarate assissinations.

Henry Brown wrote:I'd say it depends largely on whether or not 1. the current war ends in total victory or 2. in some kind of treaty/armistice. I do not think that Clyntahn would ever agree to peace, so I am assuming in the second case that he has been overthrown and Charis is dealing with a somewhat reformed CoG, most likely under the leadership of Duchairn.

If Charis has achieved total victory, overthrown the proscriptions, and disabled the OBS then I say the introduction and development of electricity is the #1 postwar priority. I would also expect a huge shift in industrial output from military based production to civilian infrastructure.

On the other hand if the current war ends in a treaty/armistice then we are likely to have a cold war type situation, in which case priorities are going to be very different. In this scenario, maintaining a strong military is going to be high on the list of Charis's priorities. Electricity can't be introduced as long as the OBS exists, but I would expect Charis to continue to push further advances in areas such as steam, metallurgy, and pneumatics. Diplomacy, education, and propoganda would also all be important would also all be important in a situation like this.

I seriously doubt Clyntahn would be able to accept any negotiated settlement of any kind. Then again, if presented with the clear and obvious reality that the church will come tumbling down and that they have no chance whatsoever to stave off defeat, let alone win, he might opt for an armistice. For that to happen though, the church would have to run out of armies and that's what LAMA was headed into. 4 major military forces remain to the church - The Royal Dohlaran Navy, the Army of the Sylmahn, the Army of Glacierheart and the Mighty Host of God and the Archangels - all of which are getting increasingly more experienced and dangerous. However, should all of them be defeated in HFQ (which seems to be the direction things are headed), what's to stop Charis and Siddarmark from marching all the way to Zion and besieging the Temple? Yet Clyntahn has also proven to be a "hold to the last man" sort of leader, probably because he thinks throwing enough willing fighters at Charis will stop them. The other members of the Go4 would have to make the case that even suicidal attacks are not likely to even slow the allies down. That could happen if all 4 military forces are eliminated in turn (or even all but Dohlar).

If that happens, then he's almost certain to opt for anything short of an actual peace treaty - a Cold War would actually suit him far more since he is likely to desire the time to rebuild their forces and try to address the technological imbalance. Yet unlike the High Ridge Government of the Honorverse, it's unlikely the Inner Circle would draw down it's forces beyond a bare minimum needed to match the church's forces (which they can monitor far more closely that Jurgenson's inept ONI ever could have in WoH). Moreover, Charis would likely press on with the innovations the Church would object to and make sure they're disseminated as widely as possible. Under such circumstance, I doubt the Church could pose a more serious threat 5 or even 10 years down the road. The church will of course claim Charis is violating the armistice (by violating the proscriptions) even if they have no tangible proof. Charis will certainly have such proof of Church violations given their intelligence capabilities.

The final element though is the Church's dire financial situation and it's ability to keep the mainland realms under it's control. The church will be recovering from this war's costs for years if not decades. And, as RFC pointed out, Charis is also likely to demand toleration and non-persecution of reformists in any peace settlement. They could equally make the threat that if reformists are persecuted, Charis would consider it a pretext for the resumption of hostilities (in a Cold War). Clyntahn will likely ignore the financial problems (being rich himself, he probably doesn't understand the sort of costs they're facing) but tolerance towards reformists is something he's not likely to accept. So one way or another he has to go.

I think any decisions to "build the peace" as you phrased it will be affected by a couple key things, some the main characters know, some they don't... yet.

I think we can all assume Clynthan will NOT be in power, or alive when this current war ends. Either there is an internal coup and he dies, an assassin finally gets in to stabby stabby range, or he is handed over as a war criminal (as part of a coup). He would never accept peace, and no doubt would retreat further into his insanity as the war goes even further south on him.

Now here comes the BIG question... Do the Allies seize the Temple in the current war or not? Honestly I am leaning no at this point in time. I forget where it is, but RFC lays out the logic on why Charis would HAVE to accept if the Temple were to lay out terms that Charis and Siddimark would actually accept. This includes acceptance of the schism, and a genuine effort to reform and reign in the power of the inquisition. If it does end this way without Charis in general, and Merlin in particular, getting into the temple that is big. It would mean the Sleeper, and the orbital bombardment platform is very much still in to affect.

That is going to be my beginning point.

The inner circle will have to realize, the war will resume, its is just a matter of time. In what, 20 years or so the sleeper is set to awaken. I think it is a fairly safe bet that when the sleeper does awaken, he is not going to be a happy series of 0s and 1s. Round two will happen, and there is literally nothing they could do to stop it from happening.

Primary objectives would have to be to first ensure the platform is neutralized when that does happen. The threat of an orbital strike is just to great, that weapon needs to be neutralized or it doesn't matter ANYTHING else they could accomplish at that point.

Finally back to the entire point of the thread, Charis will need to continue the build up of its conventional military power. It's questionable if Charis would choose to maintain the large numbers of ground combat troops over a significant length of time after the fighting has finally died down. Not only is there the cost in gold and manpower, there would probably be some political ramifications. IE if we are at peace why is your army still getting larger. I don't doubt they would still maintain a relatively large force trained and equipped but it would be more on the lines of a cold war footing then a mass mobilization that we are seeing now. Knowing that another world war is another 20 years away at most would probably make Cayleb and Sharleyne pretty darn impervious to Desnairian complaints about the size of the Imperial army.

I doubt the Navy would be significantly reduced in size if it happens at all. The Empire is now far larger covering a huge amount of area on the map, all of it Islands. Justifying the size of the fleet required would be a very easy thing.

Now my point is that this means is there will be huge opportunities to keep the industrial tempo going. One of there bigger concerns when peace rolls around is what happens when all those huge military factories start going idle with the outbreak of peace. The Charisian navy is still almost completely wooden. These ships will all need replacing, which means that the shipyards and foundries will be busy for many years to come. The gun making facilities will no doubt keep going to fully modernize the Allies arms lockers and get rid of all the old crap. So it won't be an immediate flick of the switch were everyone finds themselves unemployed overnight as factories close their doors left and right. If they are smart, and every indication is that they are, they would do a gradual draw down process where certain factories stop making rifles and artillery and start switching over to more civilian output. Things like farm equipment and what not to replace all that has been lost. To say nothing of the fact that the Church of God countries have been sorely depleted on industrial goods. To say nothing of the demand there will be for steam powered freighters.

Also there is going to be huge opportunities and value with building up the railroad system that is going to be needed. While canals are a perfectly good system, especially with steam powered canal boats Railroads are far better. Plus I wouldn't be surprised if we start seeing proper asphalt roads. These peace time infrastructure projects would keep a lot of people busy, aid the economy as a whole, and be of great material aid in the war that everyone knows is coming.

Now there will have to be a fair bit of oversight to make sure that everyone stays honest. The last thing anyone of the inner circle wants is for these projects to turn into vote buying boondoggles or their equivalent. Things like the Big Dig in Massachusetts, or the high speed rail project they are putting in California.

In short, there will be tons of opportunities to keep up the tempo of industrialization, and make it dual military/civilian purpose. However all of these decisions on where to allocate time and resources (and foreign aid after the war) will have to take into account that the next war is inevitable and its going to be even nastier then this one.

Keith_w wrote:I think people are wearing rose coloured glasses when they speak of Clyntahn being overthrown. It ain't going to happen. Unlike Hitler, whose army General staff was still in charge of the Army, although not the Gestapo or SS, if Clyntahn were assassinated, the inquisition would still control the army as well as having the only viable force within the confines of Zion*. Who ever assassinated him would immediately be seized and put to the question, Rayno would immediately purge the remained of the Go4, Grand Vicar Eric would immediately deplore the influence of Shan-wei on them, the inquisitors would run riot through the vicarate purging everyone in sight "just in case". The only difference Clyntahn's assassination might make is to have the senior inquisitors return to Zion to elect a new head of the inquisition, thus leaving the armies temporarily leaderless.

When I speak of viable force, I really mean "able to operate within the temple". Although Nynian Rychtair's group of assassins may be able to depending on their real identities (ie, members of the vicarate) although I doubt it from the text we have had about the vicarate assissinations.

Two points in response.

First, the AoG is technically under the control of Captain General Maigwair. Mind you, the Inquisitors attached to the AoG *DO* have a great deal of power, I'm not disputing that. But my understanding is that they are not actually in charge. They make suggestions or demand action and the AoG officers who actually *ARE* in control follow their will.

This was not a very important detail until recently because for most of the series Captain General Maigwair seemed to be incompetent, indecisive, and very much the least of the Go4. Furthermore, he seemed to blindly follow the lead of Clyntahn. But in LAMA he seemed to grow a spine and develop a brain. And furthermore there were several private meetings between Maigwair and Duchairn in which both men were critical of Clyntahn.

I could see this newer, more competent, more assertive version of Maigwair taking steps to assert more personal authority over the AoG. I'm not talking about an outright armed confrontation. I'm talking about steps such as promoting officers who are loyal to him instead of the Inquisition and reassigning officers loyal to the Inquisition to less important roles.

The second point I'd make is that the Inquisition is *NOT* the only viable force within the Temple. In fact, they are not even the primary viable force. The Temple Guard is. And from what I understand, Clyntahn does not officially command the Temple Guard. Maigwair does. As with the army, his weak leadership early in the series has led to a situation where the Inquisition exerts a great deal of unofficial influence on the Temple Guard. But I think that if Maigwair continues provide more decisive leadership and continues to assert himself as an equal to Clyntahn rather than the lapdog he was early in the series then I think he might regain control of the Temple Guard.

Henry Brown wrote:

Keith_w wrote:I think people are wearing rose coloured glasses when they speak of Clyntahn being overthrown. It ain't going to happen. Unlike Hitler, whose army General staff was still in charge of the Army, although not the Gestapo or SS, if Clyntahn were assassinated, the inquisition would still control the army as well as having the only viable force within the confines of Zion*. Who ever assassinated him would immediately be seized and put to the question, Rayno would immediately purge the remained of the Go4, Grand Vicar Eric would immediately deplore the influence of Shan-wei on them, the inquisitors would run riot through the vicarate purging everyone in sight "just in case". The only difference Clyntahn's assassination might make is to have the senior inquisitors return to Zion to elect a new head of the inquisition, thus leaving the armies temporarily leaderless.

When I speak of viable force, I really mean "able to operate within the temple". Although Nynian Rychtair's group of assassins may be able to depending on their real identities (ie, members of the vicarate) although I doubt it from the text we have had about the vicarate assissinations.

Two points in response.

First, the AoG is technically under the control of Captain General Maigwair. Mind you, the Inquisitors attached to the AoG *DO* have a great deal of power, I'm not disputing that. But my understanding is that they are not actually in charge. They make suggestions or demand action and the AoG officers who actually *ARE* in control follow their will.

This was not a very important detail until recently because for most of the series Captain General Maigwair seemed to be incompetent, indecisive, and very much the least of the Go4. Furthermore, he seemed to blindly follow the lead of Clyntahn. But in LAMA he seemed to grow a spine and develop a brain. And furthermore there were several private meetings between Maigwair and Duchairn in which both men were critical of Clyntahn.

I could see this newer, more competent, more assertive version of Maigwair taking steps to assert more personal authority over the AoG. I'm not talking about an outright armed confrontation. I'm talking about steps such as promoting officers who are loyal to him instead of the Inquisition and reassigning officers loyal to the Inquisition to less important roles.

The second point I'd make is that the Inquisition is *NOT* the only viable force within the Temple. In fact, they are not even the primary viable force. The Temple Guard is. And from what I understand, Clyntahn does not officially command the Temple Guard. Maigwair does. As with the army, his weak leadership early in the series has led to a situation where the Inquisition exerts a great deal of unofficial influence on the Temple Guard. But I think that if Maigwair continues provide more decisive leadership and continues to assert himself as an equal to Clyntahn rather than the lapdog he was early in the series then I think he might regain control of the Temple Guard.

As is the way with all dictatorships, you have the main military forces (the AOG) and then you have the forces loyal to the regime (the Inquisition). The latter are always less numerous than the former yet they usually enjoy a qualitative advantage. And as history teaches us, any dictatorship fears its military forces as it is the only thing capable of toppling the regime. Hence the many impediments placed upon them - things like a divided command structure, political appointments of colonels and generals and the encouraging of infighting between the various units (beyond friendly rivalry). But being at war now, the AOG can't be that divided and so the Inquisition places its people within the army hoping to keep it in line.

That said, Maigwair is growing a spine and his power is enirely dependent upon the military's power and the troops faith in him and in his officers. If the Inquisition continues to demand the head of every officer who loses a battle regardless of circumstances, it will inevitably lead to the sort of tension we saw between the SS and the German army. Indeed we're already seeing signs of it now in how serving officers view the accusations of incompetence and cowardice leveled against Duke Kohlman and Baron Jahras.

The power of the Inquisition currently lies in its power of coercion.. The actual numbers are quite small, although Clyntahn and Rayno are attempting to increase them. Should Clyntahn be assassinated (by Duchairn or Magwair or someone else), Rayno is almost certainly going to be gone next. It is also virtually certain that Magwair would issue orders to the AoG that the inquisitors were to be immediately arrested - particularly if he and Duchairn are going to attempt to reach a truce with the EoC - remember, that as far as the EoC is concerned, all inquisitors lives are forfeit, and I can't see them backing off from that demand.

I can also see, as a non-negotiable demand, that Merlin and the Church of Charis must be granted access to the Temple, not exclusive access, but access as a co-equal religion to the CoGA.

As far as the possibility that Clyntahn might agree to a truce so as to allow the CoGA to regroup and recover to prepare for round two - not gonna happen. Siddarmark and the EoC will not agree to any truce that doesn't have Clyntahn dead, and the Inquisition disbanded.

Henry Brown wrote:

Keith_w wrote:I think people are wearing rose coloured glasses when they speak of Clyntahn being overthrown. It ain't going to happen. Unlike Hitler, whose army General staff was still in charge of the Army, although not the Gestapo or SS, if Clyntahn were assassinated, the inquisition would still control the army as well as having the only viable force within the confines of Zion*. Who ever assassinated him would immediately be seized and put to the question, Rayno would immediately purge the remained of the Go4, Grand Vicar Eric would immediately deplore the influence of Shan-wei on them, the inquisitors would run riot through the vicarate purging everyone in sight "just in case". The only difference Clyntahn's assassination might make is to have the senior inquisitors return to Zion to elect a new head of the inquisition, thus leaving the armies temporarily leaderless.

When I speak of viable force, I really mean "able to operate within the temple". Although Nynian Rychtair's group of assassins may be able to depending on their real identities (ie, members of the vicarate) although I doubt it from the text we have had about the vicarate assissinations.

Two points in response.

First, the AoG is technically under the control of Captain General Maigwair. Mind you, the Inquisitors attached to the AoG *DO* have a great deal of power, I'm not disputing that. But my understanding is that they are not actually in charge. They make suggestions or demand action and the AoG officers who actually *ARE* in control follow their will.

This was not a very important detail until recently because for most of the series Captain General Maigwair seemed to be incompetent, indecisive, and very much the least of the Go4. Furthermore, he seemed to blindly follow the lead of Clyntahn. But in LAMA he seemed to grow a spine and develop a brain. And furthermore there were several private meetings between Maigwair and Duchairn in which both men were critical of Clyntahn.

I could see this newer, more competent, more assertive version of Maigwair taking steps to assert more personal authority over the AoG. I'm not talking about an outright armed confrontation. I'm talking about steps such as promoting officers who are loyal to him instead of the Inquisition and reassigning officers loyal to the Inquisition to less important roles.

The second point I'd make is that the Inquisition is *NOT* the only viable force within the Temple. In fact, they are not even the primary viable force. The Temple Guard is. And from what I understand, Clyntahn does not officially command the Temple Guard. Maigwair does. As with the army, his weak leadership early in the series has led to a situation where the Inquisition exerts a great deal of unofficial influence on the Temple Guard. But I think that if Maigwair continues provide more decisive leadership and continues to assert himself as an equal to Clyntahn rather than the lapdog he was early in the series then I think he might regain control of the Temple Guard.

Yeah, I forgot the leadership of the armies are Chihirites, not inquisitors, and that Magwair is a Chihirite vicar.