Post SL breakup politics

I have copied this from another thread, where is was starting to get off topic.

Hutch wrote:

JeffEngel wrote: *Snip*
In some ways, the Verge may be better off than the Core: the OFS sectors represent political structures of a viable size with the traces of a nascent national identity. The chief problem is that, for most of them, it's an unwilling association under an unloved regime. Maya Sector is an exception, thanks immediately to Barregos being an exception. Meyers is enjoying unified Manticoran liberation and some maybe patronage being reconstituted as a multistellar entity. Other OFS sectors may need governors who see which way the wind is blowing and become "Barregos-in-a-hurry" to become heroes of the new regime instead of the hated symbols of the old one. Or they may try their hands at being independent dictators instead of disguised dictators on behalf of the League. (Telling the two sorts apart is left as an exercise for concerned parties - poor schmucks.)

If OFS sectors cut across old, existing multistellar national identities - like post-colonial borders following the world wars here - then you're likely to see the same sorts of bloody messes we have.

Interesting thoughts, Jeff, and may be worthy of a thread in it's own right. What kind of polities will be replacing the SL; the Core may differ from the Shell and the Protectorates/Verge may be something quite different.

Let me think a bit and if you have no objection, perhaps discuss it in a new thread.

That might well have been true, except for the MAlign stirring the pot. Among other things they are going to have to be staging attacks on some of the independent systems by "warlords" either directly or through manipulated proxies to justify the formation of the RF as a mutual defense organization. This is probably going to lead to some larger multi-system polities who are going to be doing the same thing.

JeffEngel wrote: *Snip*
In some ways, the Verge may be better off than the Core: the OFS sectors represent political structures of a viable size with the traces of a nascent national identity. The chief problem is that, for most of them, it's an unwilling association under an unloved regime. Maya Sector is an exception, thanks immediately to Barregos being an exception. Meyers is enjoying unified Manticoran liberation and some maybe patronage being reconstituted as a multistellar entity. Other OFS sectors may need governors who see which way the wind is blowing and become "Barregos-in-a-hurry" to become heroes of the new regime instead of the hated symbols of the old one. Or they may try their hands at being independent dictators instead of disguised dictators on behalf of the League. (Telling the two sorts apart is left as an exercise for concerned parties - poor schmucks.)

If OFS sectors cut across old, existing multistellar national identities - like post-colonial borders following the world wars here - then you're likely to see the same sorts of bloody messes we have.

Interesting thoughts, Jeff, and may be worthy of a thread in it's own right. What kind of polities will be replacing the SL; the Core may differ from the Shell and the Protectorates/Verge may be something quite different.

Let me think a bit and if you have no objection, perhaps discuss it in a new thread.

That might well have been true, except for the MAlign stirring the pot. Among other things they are going to have to be staging attacks on some of the independent systems by "warlords" either directly or through manipulated proxies to justify the formation of the RF as a mutual defense organization. This is probably going to lead to some larger multi-system polities who are going to be doing the same thing.

The Alignment will be stirring the pot; ambitious neighbors will be; and seeing that all of that is inevitable, the GA is going to be sponsoring multistellar polities themselves.

Hopefully none of them will be trying to straddle the line between star nation and treaty organization like the League did, but the League managed it as "well" as it did just because it wasn't poking anyone who could poke back til recently. No one else will have that luxury now.

I think there will be all sorts of combinations of:
1 - totally independent systems: usually where the system is either quite powerful on its own, but not inclined to be a warlord, a state nucleus, or a close ally of anyone else; or where they are that isolated that they're not bothered by neighbors or raider much and would not benefit much from alliance or multistellar nation membership

2 - treaty organizations of otherwise independent systems: mutual defense and trade pacts, for the most part, with no more shared foreign policy than necessary and genuine system autonomy

3 - actual multistellar nations, with varying amounts of system vs. national power. These nations may themselves join treaty organizations. And those multistellar nations themselves may be the result of conquest, threat of conquest, mutual defense with either the sense that it's going to take a lot of unity or that they may as well go whole-hog, or a prior mutual affection and relationship based on League-era history, pre-League history, current trade, current cultural ties, simple neighborliness, or common OFS sector history.

4 - ravaged and failed star nations, subject to piracy, slavery, and warlords (the last of which may represent good luck with the former as alternatives)

My guess is that the Core is less likely to suffer (4), and is going to be the more natural home of (1) and (2). These star systems don't care to give up sovereignty - they never really did even for the League! - and they can and will make their way without doing it now.

Out on the Verge, 1-4 are all live possibilities. The Alignment is shooting for all the (4) misery they can get, to make their Renaissance Factor the nucleus of choice for something better, and to prevent the SEM, Haven, or for that matter Maya Sector, Erewhon, the Andermani, or any other Verge/Shell polity from being a good competitor - especially those with too much loyalty to the Beowulf Code.

The GA would like to minimize (4) and probably think (1) is going to be too vulnerable to becoming (4) too often, but isn't going to come down on single system states as such either.

Certainly there will be a lot to offer as models: the flexible federal SEM model; a more centralized democratic Haven; Maya Sector as a representative of what OFS sectors can be; Grayson, Erewhon and Torch as single system states managing well with their alliances and immediate self-defense, despite extremely varied backgrounds.

The Andermani, well, will be ready to nip off vulnerable single system states and eager to take down little warlords and pirates near their borders. If the threat of them makes for stable treaty organizations near them - well, win-win, they've now got a stable trade partner nearby without having to use ammo or garrisons or make the SEM twitchy. Erewhon may well emulate them in miniature and with a bit more subtlety.

JeffEngel wrote:

JeffEngel wrote: *Snip*
In some ways, the Verge may be better off than the Core: the OFS sectors represent political structures of a viable size with the traces of a nascent national identity. The chief problem is that, for most of them, it's an unwilling association under an unloved regime. Maya Sector is an exception, thanks immediately to Barregos being an exception. Meyers is enjoying unified Manticoran liberation and some maybe patronage being reconstituted as a multistellar entity. Other OFS sectors may need governors who see which way the wind is blowing and become "Barregos-in-a-hurry" to become heroes of the new regime instead of the hated symbols of the old one. Or they may try their hands at being independent dictators instead of disguised dictators on behalf of the League. (Telling the two sorts apart is left as an exercise for concerned parties - poor schmucks.)

If OFS sectors cut across old, existing multistellar national identities - like post-colonial borders following the world wars here - then you're likely to see the same sorts of bloody messes we have.

Interesting thoughts, Jeff, and may be worthy of a thread in it's own right. What kind of polities will be replacing the SL; the Core may differ from the Shell and the Protectorates/Verge may be something quite different.

Let me think a bit and if you have no objection, perhaps discuss it in a new thread.

That might well have been true, except for the MAlign stirring the pot. Among other things they are going to have to be staging attacks on some of the independent systems by "warlords" either directly or through manipulated proxies to justify the formation of the RF as a mutual defense organization. This is probably going to lead to some larger multi-system polities who are going to be doing the same thing.

The Alignment will be stirring the pot; ambitious neighbors will be; and seeing that all of that is inevitable, the GA is going to be sponsoring multistellar polities themselves.

Hopefully none of them will be trying to straddle the line between star nation and treaty organization like the League did, but the League managed it as "well" as it did just because it wasn't poking anyone who could poke back til recently. No one else will have that luxury now.

I think there will be all sorts of combinations of:
1 - totally independent systems: usually where the system is either quite powerful on its own, but not inclined to be a warlord, a state nucleus, or a close ally of anyone else; or where they are that isolated that they're not bothered by neighbors or raider much and would not benefit much from alliance or multistellar nation membership

2 - treaty organizations of otherwise independent systems: mutual defense and trade pacts, for the most part, with no more shared foreign policy than necessary and genuine system autonomy

3 - actual multistellar nations, with varying amounts of system vs. national power. These nations may themselves join treaty organizations. And those multistellar nations themselves may be the result of conquest, threat of conquest, mutual defense with either the sense that it's going to take a lot of unity or that they may as well go whole-hog, or a prior mutual affection and relationship based on League-era history, pre-League history, current trade, current cultural ties, simple neighborliness, or common OFS sector history.

4 - ravaged and failed star nations, subject to piracy, slavery, and warlords (the last of which may represent good luck with the former as alternatives)

My guess is that the Core is less likely to suffer (4), and is going to be the more natural home of (1) and (2). These star systems don't care to give up sovereignty - they never really did even for the League! - and they can and will make their way without doing it now.

Out on the Verge, 1-4 are all live possibilities. The Alignment is shooting for all the (4) misery they can get, to make their Renaissance Factor the nucleus of choice for something better, and to prevent the SEM, Haven, or for that matter Maya Sector, Erewhon, the Andermani, or any other Verge/Shell polity from being a good competitor - especially those with too much loyalty to the Beowulf Code.

The GA would like to minimize (4) and probably think (1) is going to be too vulnerable to becoming (4) too often, but isn't going to come down on single system states as such either.

Certainly there will be a lot to offer as models: the flexible federal SEM model; a more centralized democratic Haven; Maya Sector as a representative of what OFS sectors can be; Grayson, Erewhon and Torch as single system states managing well with their alliances and immediate self-defense, despite extremely varied backgrounds.

The Andermani, well, will be ready to nip off vulnerable single system states and eager to take down little warlords and pirates near their borders. If the threat of them makes for stable treaty organizations near them - well, win-win, they've now got a stable trade partner nearby without having to use ammo or garrisons or make the SEM twitchy. Erewhon may well emulate them in miniature and with a bit more subtlety.

I think the GA would prefer #3, to reproduce what happened in Talbott, except with each set of star systems nominally independent of each other. For example, if the OFS sectors became individual nations, sentient rights re-guaranteed, etc. with cross system constitutions less federalizable but adequate for "national" defense.

The Andermani, well, will be ready to nip off vulnerable single system states and eager to take down little warlords and pirates near their borders. If the threat of them makes for stable treaty organizations near them - well, win-win, they've now got a stable trade partner nearby without having to use ammo or garrisons or make the SEM twitchy. Erewhon may well emulate them in miniature and with a bit more subtlety.[/quote]


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The Andies have gone for a steady, controlled growth. They will "LIKELY" go for a protectorate / "assistance" role similar to their pre-Silesian Annexation role, with eventual annexation when they have the personnel and resources to absorb another chunk of space.

Erewhon will not likely conquer or take over a system, but they MAY set up a similar independent system to their own. I see them as a strong guiding influence in the "new" Mesan government about to be formed.

-- Stewart

stewart wrote:

The Andermani, well, will be ready to nip off vulnerable single system states and eager to take down little warlords and pirates near their borders. If the threat of them makes for stable treaty organizations near them - well, win-win, they've now got a stable trade partner nearby without having to use ammo or garrisons or make the SEM twitchy. Erewhon may well emulate them in miniature and with a bit more subtlety.

------------------------

The Andies have gone for a steady, controlled growth. They will "LIKELY" go for a protectorate / "assistance" role similar to their pre-Silesian Annexation role, with eventual annexation when they have the personnel and resources to absorb another chunk of space.

The Andermani have a reputation for "fishing in troubled waters." These are absolutely troubled waters, and while I'll grant preference for steady, controlled growth, if the SL breakup gives them problems or opportunities (and I'm sure it will do at least one or the other, probably a wide selection of lots of little ones), they'll put preferences to the side and deal with what comes their way.

A protectorate relationship - and hey, it may even be some variety of voluntary and/or justified even - can certainly be a basis for annexation. It's done the trick for Manticore, after all, and the very beginning of the Anderman Empire can be read as the benign annexation of New Potsdam. So I wouldn't even view that a rival policy so much as a different menu selection for a given neighbor with which the Empire can use a more intimate relationship.

Erewhon will not likely conquer or take over a system, but they MAY set up a similar independent system to their own. I see them as a strong guiding influence in the "new" Mesan government about to be formed.

-- Stewart

Yes. I wouldn't think that outright conquest would be a likely option for Erewhon. I would see making "arrangements" by which nearby polities are brought into Erewhon's economic and diplomatic orbit - where Erewhon's benefit is largely defined in terms of having a stable neighborhood that remains good for business. That may work out messily for people who don't care to keep a nice, friendly neighborhood, but for the rest of their planets, systems, and neighbors, if that's Erewhonese imperialism, sign them up.

Torch would have been a fine satellite for Erewhon. As it happens, Torch makes its way by remaining balanced among friends who may not be friends of one another. But Erewhon's goals are served at least as well that way still: safe neighbor, stable neighborhood, trade partner. The Maya Sector is a lot larger, but the same sort of principle applies. That same very subtle making of arrangements can be expected with other former League systems and OFS satraps around Erewhon (by normal space or wormhole).

The SEM, the Andermani, and Erewhon are all playing the same game, if you look at it from a high enough level of analysis. Zoom in and you see very different styles. (Okay, I'll grant you I did understate Erewhonese subtlety initially.)

JeffEngel wrote:Yes. I wouldn't think that outright conquest would be a likely option for Erewhon. I would see making "arrangements" by which nearby polities are brought into Erewhon's economic and diplomatic orbit - where Erewhon's benefit is largely defined in terms of having a stable neighborhood that remains good for business. That may work out messily for people who don't care to keep a nice, friendly neighborhood, but for the rest of their planets, systems, and neighbors, if that's Erewhonese imperialism, sign them up.

The Erewhon Junction leads to Terre Haut in the Pheonix Cluster and to Sasebo in the League Core. I don't see any reason for relations with Terre Haut and the Pheonix Cluster to change since they're outside of the league.

Sasebo is another story. Erewhon has a vested interest in the stability of the Sasebo system and a mutual defense treaty is the absolute minimum to expect. Incorporation with Sasebo into a single polity isn't beyond possibility, but Erewhon doesn't really have any neighbors to worry about. Maya Sector is already a powerful economic/treaty partner. Torch is at least neutral in their favor and exists in large part because Erewhon didn't like who controlled the Torch wormhole.

I don't see Erewhon as an empire builder, but I can see them as an arms merchant supplying Manticore Lite to successor states' system defense forces.

I can also see the Andermani as arms merchants along with more formal protectorate relationships with bordering systems.

In regards to the Andermani, I think they will actively be fishing in the troubled SL waters as well as doing more subtle work. Given the suddenly enlarged Star Empire of Manticore's astrological position to the east (Manticore system), north-east (the part of Silesia the SEM bought out) and now south/southwest (Talbot Quadrant), the Andermani Empire is starting to be encircled by Manticore. A stellar nation it was once larger than, and now it's the smaller stellar nation. That has to make the Andermani emperor and his people more than a little nervous. So I think they would be actively fishing in the western part of the SL, offering to help protect systems (protectorates, preferred treaty partners and such) so they can build their Empire into one not constrained by Manticore's growth.

Zakharra wrote:In regards to the Andermani, I think they will actively be fishing in the troubled SL waters as well as doing more subtle work. Given the suddenly enlarged Star Empire of Manticore's astrological position to the east (Manticore system), north-east (the part of Silesia the SEM bought out) and now south/southwest (Talbot Quadrant), the Andermani Empire is starting to be encircled by Manticore. A stellar nation it was once larger than, and now it's the smaller stellar nation. That has to make the Andermani emperor and his people more than a little nervous. So I think they would be actively fishing in the western part of the SL, offering to help protect systems (protectorates, preferred treaty partners and such) so they can build their Empire into one not constrained by Manticore's growth.

And while Manticore may not want a very strong Anderman Empire, a pretty strong and antsy one is a lot less comforting a neighbor than a stronger and satisfied AE. So that would not even necessarily face discouragement from the SEM.

JeffEngel wrote:

Zakharra wrote:In regards to the Andermani, I think they will actively be fishing in the troubled SL waters as well as doing more subtle work. Given the suddenly enlarged Star Empire of Manticore's astrological position to the east (Manticore system), north-east (the part of Silesia the SEM bought out) and now south/southwest (Talbot Quadrant), the Andermani Empire is starting to be encircled by Manticore. A stellar nation it was once larger than, and now it's the smaller stellar nation. That has to make the Andermani emperor and his people more than a little nervous. So I think they would be actively fishing in the western part of the SL, offering to help protect systems (protectorates, preferred treaty partners and such) so they can build their Empire into one not constrained by Manticore's growth.

And while Manticore may not want a very strong Anderman Empire, a pretty strong and antsy one is a lot less comforting a neighbor than a stronger and satisfied AE. So that would not even necessarily face discouragement from the SEM.

Besides, the Andermani have proved to be a nation you can rely on when they give you their word and honest purveyors of political stability. It is in their interest to police their regions of space and to supress piracy, while allowing honest merchants to pass unmolested. To quell them is to allow another entity to form in their place - one you do not have the same relationship with.

I've always felt that Gustav Anderman I must have read the Evil Overloard's List when he took over New Potsdam. Let's face it - to be successful, every Evil Overloard has to act non-Evil (like giving the newly conquered civil rights they never had before, or bring medical care and biologists to fix the farming issues) to be successful long term. Any many parts of the list (that don't directly involve superweapons, beautiful Princesses, plucky sidekicks and rogueish Heroes) pretty much makes it clear that to keep acting evil is just a way to be brought down by a disenfranchised populace.

Obviously he passed this set of rules along, because his decendants have seemed to follow them - the many acquisions have seemed to be peaceful and the Empire is safe and prosperous. The Evil Minions (Skull badges and all) are not feared and reviled, but respected and regaled as the protectors of a realm should.

Perhaps the GA should give a copy of the Evil Overlord's List (with Gustav Anderman's Annotations) to all new Warlords as a notice and a warning.


[quote="JeffEngel"] <snip>
A protectorate relationship - and hey, it may even be some variety of voluntary and/or justified even - can certainly be a basis for annexation. It's done the trick for Manticore, after all, and the very beginning of the Anderman Empire can be read as the benign annexation of New Potsdam. So I wouldn't even view that a rival policy so much as a different menu selection for a given neighbor with which the Empire can use a more intimate relationship.
[quote]