Snoop ships... vs. the MA.

dreamrider wrote:snip

(Does it occur to anyone else that it would be very unhealthy to be the crew of the Jessyk/slaver/tramp ship that was the actual planned next-to-last leg for a Houdini cell? Because, you know, hyperspace accidents happen all the time, and dead men carry no tales - or rendezvous coordinates or ship descriptions, etc. The Houdini extraction organization killed tens or hundreds of thousands of Mesan citizens including family members of deep onion members, just to set up some of the planet departure cover stories. Heck, they offed a selection of their own operatives that were considered 'no further use'. What's a hundred or so tramp spaceship crews, maybe a few slaves in cargo, to put an untraceable cutout on the exit route?)

Almost certainly a number of those ships were captured by good SL League members (like Mannerheim, and Visigoth) and the crews summarily executed per the Cherwell convention. "Of course we are deeply opposed to the slave trade, and will do all we can to crush it"

dreamrider wrote:I don't think that ANY Houdini ship (from Mesa) went direct to Darius, or even direct to a place they could rendezvous with a ride to Darius. We've actually been shown a pretty detailed example of the kind of routing that Houdini extractions used, and that example had 2-3 cutouts/transport changes BEFORE we saw it terminated, and it was pretty clear that the transporting ships that were 'interrupted' leaving Balescu Station were not the last leg transportation.

Sort of my thinking, precisely. Which leaves 'what does the captain of the ship know about the onion and the "Zach McBride survived" problem that he's inherited?' I would argue not much, because that's consistent with the "need to know" M/O of the Alignment for all these years.

dreamrider wrote:(Does it occur to anyone else that it would be very unhealthy to be the crew of the Jessyk/slaver/tramp ship that was the actual planned next-to-last leg for a Houdini cell? Because, you know, hyperspace accidents happen all the time, and dead men carry no tales - or rendezvous coordinates or ship descriptions, etc. The Houdini extraction organization killed tens or hundreds of thousands of Mesan citizens including family members of deep onion members, just to set up some of the planet departure cover stories. Heck, they offed a selection of their own operatives that were considered 'no further use'. What's a hundred or so tramp spaceship crews, maybe a few slaves in cargo, to put an untraceable cutout on the exit route?)

Actually that is a very nasty thought which had NOT occurred to me, but on a limited basis, it seems that EVERY traceable route would have a dead-men-tell-no-tales cutout, though perhaps not a whole ship every time, when a "swap the bridge crew and logs" and then quietly snuff the less reliable/controlled crews "offstage" with the news reporting "innocent freighter crew slaughtered by Ballroom terrorists in the XYZ system after a night of pizza and beer..."

SharkHunter wrote:

dreamrider wrote:I don't think that ANY Houdini ship (from Mesa) went direct to Darius, or even direct to a place they could rendezvous with a ride to Darius. We've actually been shown a pretty detailed example of the kind of routing that Houdini extractions used, and that example had 2-3 cutouts/transport changes BEFORE we saw it terminated, and it was pretty clear that the transporting ships that were 'interrupted' leaving Balescu Station were not the last leg transportation.

Sort of my thinking, precisely. Which leaves 'what does the captain of the ship know about the onion and the "Zach McBride survived" problem that he's inherited?' I would argue not much, because that's consistent with the "need to know" M/O of the Alignment for all these years.

dreamrider wrote:(Does it occur to anyone else that it would be very unhealthy to be the crew of the Jessyk/slaver/tramp ship that was the actual planned next-to-last leg for a Houdini cell? Because, you know, hyperspace accidents happen all the time, and dead men carry no tales - or rendezvous coordinates or ship descriptions, etc. The Houdini extraction organization killed tens or hundreds of thousands of Mesan citizens including family members of deep onion members, just to set up some of the planet departure cover stories. Heck, they offed a selection of their own operatives that were considered 'no further use'. What's a hundred or so tramp spaceship crews, maybe a few slaves in cargo, to put an untraceable cutout on the exit route?)

Actually that is a very nasty thought which had NOT occurred to me, but on a limited basis, it seems that EVERY traceable route would have a dead-men-tell-no-tales cutout, though perhaps not a whole ship every time, when a "swap the bridge crew and logs" and then quietly snuff the less reliable/controlled crews "offstage" with the news reporting "innocent freighter crew slaughtered by Ballroom terrorists in the XYZ system after a night of pizza and beer..."

You have to kill hte entire crew, because you have no idea of how much talking has been done among the crew - safest to just destroy the entire crew, and the ship to make sure nothing was left in it. They have just killed tens of thousands of people directly, arranged to the deaths of tens of thousands more, and are planning on the extermination of milliions or billions of people. Why would they be squeamish about killing a few slavers, particularly if they can make some of their puppet regimes look good to the rest of the galaxy.

fallsfromtrees wrote:You have to kill hte entire crew, because you have no idea of how much talking has been done among the crew - safest to just destroy the entire crew, and the ship to make sure nothing was left in it. They have just killed tens of thousands of people directly, arranged to the deaths of tens of thousands more, and are planning on the extermination of milliions or billions of people. Why would they be squeamish about killing a few slavers, particularly if they can make some of their puppet regimes look good to the rest of the galaxy.

Umm, hello? Why are we supposed to think that most of the "Houdini'd MAlign membership is travelling on slaver ships even part way? They're damned elitist to the core. Granted, they don't have their "travel to MAlign space platinum charge card bills lying around on the luxury yachts either, but...

Anyway, the other reason I think that they don't blow up a whole lot of ships is that they're cheapskates and those ships were running some kind of route before, not just sitting there in Mesan space waiting for Houdini. So I have the bad guys pegged as mrderous, genocidal cheapskates. But I do think that you're right: they would whack the whole crew, replace the nav 'puter and logs, brand new registry papers, looks like a new ship or at worst and old ship under new management, complete with "purchase papers" from far away system Z, etc.

SharkHunter wrote:Sort of my thinking, precisely. Which leaves 'what does the captain of the ship know about the onion and the "Zach McBride survived" problem that he's inherited?' I would argue not much, because that's consistent with the "need to know" M/O of the Alignment for all these years.

I would argue that the answer to that question is NOT "not much"...it is "NOTHING"! He is a Manpower/Jessyk quasi-independent ship-driver, probably not even a Mesan, much less the remotest kind of member of the MA entitled to do anything more than munch on an onion. And I don't mean that in any sense metaphorically, I mean an onion from hydroponics.

All he knew is that someone with influence paid him to haul some super-cargo passengers from point A to point B. Oh, and those passenger had one super-scary thug overseer who was handling all details pertaining to the group.

He probably has some idea that when he gets to someplace with a Jessyk or Manpower factor, he will dump his bad news passengers on them, and be clear of them.

If you are moving smuggled rubies from New Delhi to Rome, you don't tell the Istanbul taxi driver, "we're on the run, so be quick and keep your moth shut", even if you have used him a dozen times. You give him an extra 100 T-lira and say, "train station, and hurry it up".

dreamrider

Come on guys. You can't find a system you don't know is inhabited if the people there don't want you to for these reasons;


1) Vessels never have to get to the system from outside. There's an interstellar rendevous where those vessels running the 'outer' circuits trans-ship supplies and people to those running the 'inner' circuit.

2) The people in the "outer" circuit don't know where the planet is, have never seen it or gone there.


3) The people in the inner circuit all have suicide charges on themselves and nuclear demolition charges on their ships. They must return to the system by the appointed time to get the disarm commands or they die. They cannot start talking or they die. They cannot be detained, waylaid or otherwise held up or they die.

4) The original system can't be discovered via passive observation. There are far too many star systems to check in the given stellar volume to do so in a reasonable time and expense.

Belial666 wrote:Come on guys. You can't find a system you don't know is inhabited if the people there don't want you to for these reasons;


1) Vessels never have to get to the system from outside. There's an interstellar rendevous where those vessels running the 'outer' circuits trans-ship supplies and people to those running the 'inner' circuit.

Friendly amendment: interstellar rendezvouses are a right pain to work out. Some uninhabited, uninteresting star system in the general area will do. (And when the general area is a sphere some 60 LY or more in radius, it's not helpful for a search space.)

2) The people in the "outer" circuit don't know where the planet is, have never seen it or gone there.


3) The people in the inner circuit all have suicide charges on themselves and nuclear demolition charges on their ships. They must return to the system by the appointed time to get the disarm commands or they die. They cannot start talking or they die. They cannot be detained, waylaid or otherwise held up or they die.

Hardcore believers for the crew (or officers at least), a small crew, and possibly GAUL's with the usual sorts of orders can do the trick. Demolition charges on ships are, you know, a safety hazard, and suicide charges in people can go off accidentally too. Mysterious ghost ships and suddenly dying crew mates can throw off operations. They may be able to get away with some alternatives that are a bit less likely to fail badly.

4) The original system can't be discovered via passive observation. There are far too many star systems to check in the given stellar volume to do so in a reasonable time and expense.

Does anyone recall how Darius was discovered? Granted, you can't tell too much about a system from far off, but they've had time to perfect that, time to DO it, and so many systems scouted. I wonder just how they've kept anyone from independently discovering Darius or coming across old records of a potentially habitable system. Sheer luck would go a long way to maintain privacy, but they're not the sorts to rely on it.

Personally I think Houdini will start leaking like a sieve:
1. The number 1 protection of Houdini, was that nobody was looking for disappeared people. As of CoG Zilwick and Victor have suspicions. If and when they start digging, they will find something. Especially since the whole intelligence communities of Haven, Manticore and Beowulf are desperate for new leads and will help.
2. Internal dissent will be a huge problem. Most of the disappeared people are not to happy with their situation. When the reality of the MAs plan or what happened to Mesa (like for example murdering their spouses to cover their disappearance) hits them, that problem will get even worse. A few successful defections would be enough to cripple Houdini.
3. They used slavers to transport their people at least in part. Those slavers are all of a sudden unemployed, all of a sudden the SL seems to be a lot more eager, when it comes to space slavers, because the MA is cleaning house, Torch is getting really active, when it comes to slaver hunting and they are hardly loyal to the MA. Some could decide to trade the information about those mysterious passengers, which they took away from Mesa just before the arrival of the RMN, for a nice stay in a Manticorian low security prison.
4. The final implementation was rushed. Somewhere something is bound to go wrong.

tldr: Houdini is too big, too complex and too rushed. We saw the first hints of a leak. There will be more.

JeffEngel wrote:Does anyone recall how Darius was discovered? Granted, you can't tell too much about a system from far off, but they've had time to perfect that, time to DO it, and so many systems scouted. I wonder just how they've kept anyone from independently discovering Darius or coming across old records of a potentially habitable system. Sheer luck would go a long way to maintain privacy, but they're not the sorts to rely on it.

Yes, we know how Darius was discovered, but it doesn't answer your underlying question. Mannerheim hired Jessyk Combine to explore nearby systems. They discovered the Felix wormhole junction. One of the bridges from Felix leads to Darius. We have absolutely no information about how far Darius is from anything else, how likely it is that someone will stumble across the system from hyperspace. It could be 500 light-years beyond explored space or it could be deep in the Core--we don't know. I would guess that if it were likely to be randomly discovered, they wouldn't have chosen that location. But we just don't know.

--snip before--

SWM wrote:
Yes, we know how Darius was discovered, but it doesn't answer your underlying question. Mannerheim hired Jessyk Combine to explore nearby systems. They discovered the Felix wormhole junction. One of the bridges from Felix leads to Darius. We have absolutely no information about how far Darius is from anything else, how likely it is that someone will stumble across the system from hyperspace. It could be 500 light-years beyond explored space or it could be deep in the Core--we don't know. I would guess that if it were likely to be randomly discovered, they wouldn't have chosen that location. But we just don't know.

I'm thinking along similar lines, that Darius likely isn't on a straight line to very many places, sort of the same way that a couple of the termini in the Manticore junction don't lead to high trade areas, so the stellar cartography "out thataway" isn't all that substantial in the Honorverse. In that vein, however, I don't think that the entire MAlign is headed to Darius at all, though parts might be.

My logic is that -- "Soviet evil empire" style, if you have a nifty magical tunnel that goes directly from your Siberian Super Soldier empire to near London, and you and your "planetary domination planners" get flushed out of your nifty custom hideaway near Frankfurt, you don't retreat to Siberia and try to use your tunnel for communications to influence Europe.