HFQ Official Snippet #11

Great Snippet, it seems like Merlin's cave is stocked with some toys that haven't been mentioned before. I wonder what else is in there?

phillies wrote:

Keith_w wrote:[quote="SHV"]" I don't know of any one else who could pilot the 2nd recon skimmer."
****
Owl pilots the skimmer to and from the cave for the majority of Merlin's trips; don't see why he isn't the "pilot" of the second skimmer on this trip.

Steve

Because as much as it will probably freak Sandrah out flying, it will probably be even worse if there is no one in the front seat.

Let me try an opposite tack on this: She has never seen a device vaguely like this, and has no idea why it would need a pilot, since it is unlikely to meet any reefs or bars before it leaves the harbour, so she will be entirely unconcerned.[/quote]
Let me try a different tack.

Everything that she has seen move, carts, boats, etc, has had a person contrilling it. She would expect someone controlling it.

Hi Lyonheart,

some comments below.

lyonheart wrote:Now here in March of 897, there are something like 360,000 ICA combat troops in theater since the middle of November, before the troop ships mentioned the snippets, besides some 400,000 RSA troops now equipped with rifles for over 750,000 alliance rifle equipped troops by this spring, already more than all the remaining CoGA armies, (snip)

Frankly, I didn't check those numbers (on rifle production) myself - and they seem sensible; but there are two points of caution I want to make. First, both the ICA and the RSA need more than rifles to actually field a unit (boots probably being the most trivial). Second, I'm not convinced that RFC provided such precise estimates on all the weapons available to the CoGA armies this spring. So, I think the numbers are probably a bit more positive for the CoGA, but not dramatically so.

lyonheart wrote:I don't see any fortified position the MHoGatA can take [like Dairnyth] or make that the ICA can't isolate and starve them into surrender long before anything the Go4 can do to rescue them.

I agree on the CoGA (and particularly the "mighty" host) being effectively unable to take a well prepared (and provisioned) ICA defensive position. However, I'm a bit more reluctant with the ICA being able to take any well prepared defensive position by the Mighty Host etc. If the Mighty Host were to really dig in, build up stores of ammo and food, and do that at lines of communication, which can actually be covered by their superior numbers (let's say the Holy Langhorne canal ), that could result in a situation where the ICA would be forced to do a more or less direct assault. And given the casualty numbers that implies I think the ICA would rather not ...

On the rest of your scenario: It's a bit early to make such specific guesses. We'll have to see.
I rather think that Magwair will find out that there are a lot of problems if he tries to move the CoGA armies from their current rear area positions to the front. It'll be interesting to see if Magwair and Rhobair realize that they can't regain the offensive with the troops and weapons they have before they've lost another army. And if they eventually realize this, what will they do with Clyntahn being blind to that aspect of reality?

Hi Anwi,

We have RFC's TO&E for the other CoGA armies, but the MHoGatA wasn't in that post, though we had references to commanders of 1000 foot, which could be considered comparable to a battalion or regiment, and the various references to providing the 640,000 rifles though maintaining them would be a nightmare, and breakdowns of who got what so we have some useful hints.

Regarding the MHoGatA really digging in someplace with lots of ammunition and food etc; such preparation could easily be negated by simply marching around said fortification to strike at its inevitable supply line [even if a blockade took month's to take effect] or some more important target, though having a large [quarter?] fraction of the MHoGatA take itself out of actively fighting or trying to stop the alliance might be appreciated by the alliance since those forces could be applied somewhere else, ie destroying the rest of the MHoGatA, so the time involved in forting up works against the CoGA if there were a place worth trying it and the Go4 knew ahead of time when and where to fight, which they haven't.

Granted the ICA/RSA armies are far more mobile, but surrendering what mobility a MHoGatA sub army might have to fort up isn't a real solution, quite aside from the time expenditure the CoGA can't afford.

But the whole point of the MHoGatA like the CoGA armies before it, is that it is to be used offensively, to win the war by destroying the alliance, going on the defensive means wasting time and losing the war eventually, which the Go4 understand very well, and know they cannot afford that perception.

We don't know if the Go4 has recognised the need for corps organization or 'sub armies' (no textev yet) so they might send the whole MHoGatA south to deal with DE [and EHM], only to realise a month later they need to send some [half?] back north to deal with BGV, after he destroys Wyrshym, then half that to deal with the hole in the center when Symkyn destroys Kaitswyrth a month after that, but do they realise they need a reserve army to replace the others if something happens to those three as it most definitely will?

I suspect Duchairn as a banker understands the need for a reserve but do the rest, and can the other three really overrule Clyntahn?

We as readers know the MHoGatA is outclassed, and a defensive battle the best situation it could hope for, but the Go4 don't know what we know, and RFC has let their ignorance and other fears and drives push their decisions, and played out the results for us.

Again, besides the time factor, I don't see a place anywhere in Siddarmark where the alliance has to attack a fortified enemy position without being able to hammer it at least as well as DE did to Fort Tairys, especially with the new explosives and artillery shells arriving sometime in the summer.

If the Go4 was incredibly prescient, for which we have no textev, having a quarter or sub army of the MHoGatA fortify the Langhorne Canal and the Sabana River junction, or the Sabana- Bedard canal junction they might delay an alliance advance from the south east into next year, but do nothing to stop BGV occupying Zion by this fall or late summer.

Which is not what the Go4 needs exactly.

The ICA CO's seem to understand their firepower advantage and how that could be used so effectively to destroy even a large 19th century army ignorant of indirect fire [and mines etc] when it marching on a high road or encamped for the night.

Which is why I've repeated many times, the ICA doesn't need machine guns in this war when they have mortars, etc.

Given all the options the ICA and RSA will have this summer, all four likely MHoGatA sub armies could be destroyed or defeated in uniquely different ways [meeting engagement, set battle, ironclads, cut off supplies etc] without RFC ever reaching his 'war porn' definition.

L

anwi wrote:Hi Lyonheart,

some comments below.

lyonheart wrote:Now here in March of 897, there are something like 360,000 ICA combat troops in theater since the middle of November, before the troop ships mentioned the snippets, besides some 400,000 RSA troops now equipped with rifles for over 750,000 alliance rifle equipped troops by this spring, already more than all the remaining CoGA armies, (snip)

Frankly, I didn't check those numbers (on rifle production) myself - and they seem sensible; but there are two points of caution I want to make. First, both the ICA and the RSA need more than rifles to actually field a unit (boots probably being the most trivial). Second, I'm not convinced that RFC provided such precise estimates on all the weapons available to the CoGA armies this spring. So, I think the numbers are probably a bit more positive for the CoGA, but not dramatically so.

lyonheart wrote:I don't see any fortified position the MHoGatA can take [like Dairnyth] or make that the ICA can't isolate and starve them into surrender long before anything the Go4 can do to rescue them.

I agree on the CoGA (and particularly the "mighty" host) being effectively unable to take a well prepared (and provisioned) ICA defensive position. However, I'm a bit more reluctant with the ICA being able to take any well prepared defensive position by the Mighty Host etc. If the Mighty Host were to really dig in, build up stores of ammo and food, and do that at lines of communication, which can actually be covered by their superior numbers (let's say the Holy Langhorne canal ), that could result in a situation where the ICA would be forced to do a more or less direct assault. And given the casualty numbers that implies I think the ICA would rather not ...

On the rest of your scenario: It's a bit early to make such specific guesses. We'll have to see.
I rather think that Magwair will find out that there are a lot of problems if he tries to move the CoGA armies from their current rear area positions to the front. It'll be interesting to see if Magwair and Rhobair realize that they can't regain the offensive with the troops and weapons they have before they've lost another army. And if they eventually realize this, what will they do with Clyntahn being blind to that aspect of reality?

Hi, as always some additional remarks. See below.

lyonheart wrote:Regarding the MHoGatA really digging in someplace with lots of ammunition and food etc; such preparation could easily be negated by simply marching around said fortification to strike at its inevitable supply line [even if a blockade took month's to take effect] or some more important target, (snip)

I'm not so sure if the ICA could simply go around a solid block on a major transport route, which they need for their own supplies. I'd assume that solidly fortified and provisioned positions by the CoGA would indeed take several months to take by siege (alone). In that period of time, forward troops couldn't be resupplied at the rate the ICA probably needs. That could turn into a potential trap for these forward troops rather easily. And temporary attacks on lines of communications won't do the job.

lyonheart wrote:But the whole point of the MHoGatA like the CoGA armies before it, is that it is to be used offensively, to win the war by destroying the alliance, going on the defensive means wasting time and losing the war eventually, which the Go4 understand very well, and know they cannot afford that perception.

Yes, that's effectively the strategic problem of Magwair: He's got an army that he is simply not allowed to deploy defensively. And he's got an army that's incapable of winning the war on the offensive as well. But I'm not sure that the Go4 has already understood the latter point (Rhobair and Magwair have an inkling I guess) and I'm quite sure that no Go4 member has yet realized that the situation will only go downhill in the future. I assume that they are still operating on the premise that with upgraded weapons and better armed units they will eventually overcome the SRA and the ICA due to the advantage in manpower and resources.

lyonheart wrote:Given all the options the ICA and RSA will have this summer, all four likely MHoGatA sub armies could be destroyed or defeated in uniquely different ways [meeting engagement, set battle, ironclads, cut off supplies etc] without RFC ever reaching his 'war porn' definition.

Well, I think the problems for the CoGA troops start earlier. The way I understand the supply situation, Rhobair was hard-pressed to supply last year's advance, which (without Harless' AoJ) was less than 30% of MHoGatA numbers IIRC. The CoGA was (and remains) effectively restricted to the major transport routes. That effectively limits the number of units of the MHoGatA the CoGA can deploy in the field simultaneously. So, defeat in detail is highly likely.
However, that raises a problem from a story telling perspective: If we as readers know in advance that the outcome of these military engagements is a sound CoGA defeat, where's the tension? Why would RFC need to tell that part of the story in a lot of detail?
I'm looking forward to his solution for that one.

Hi Anwi,

Have confidence in RFC, little grasshopper.

How many times have we fans thought something was obvious only to have RFC twist it in an unusual way that kept our interest more than piqued.

L

anwi wrote:Hi, as always some additional remarks. See below.

lyonheart wrote:Regarding the MHoGatA really digging in someplace with lots of ammunition and food etc; such preparation could easily be negated by simply marching around said fortification to strike at its inevitable supply line [even if a blockade took month's to take effect] or some more important target, (snip)

I'm not so sure if the ICA could simply go around a solid block on a major transport route, which they need for their own supplies. I'd assume that solidly fortified and provisioned positions by the CoGA would indeed take several months to take by siege (alone). In that period of time, forward troops couldn't be resupplied at the rate the ICA probably needs. That could turn into a potential trap for these forward troops rather easily. And temporary attacks on lines of communications won't do the job.

lyonheart wrote:But the whole point of the MHoGatA like the CoGA armies before it, is that it is to be used offensively, to win the war by destroying the alliance, going on the defensive means wasting time and losing the war eventually, which the Go4 understand very well, and know they cannot afford that perception.

Yes, that's effectively the strategic problem of Magwair: He's got an army that he is simply not allowed to deploy defensively. And he's got an army that's incapable of winning the war on the offensive as well. But I'm not sure that the Go4 has already understood the latter point (Rhobair and Magwair have an inkling I guess) and I'm quite sure that no Go4 member has yet realized that the situation will only go downhill in the future. I assume that they are still operating on the premise that with upgraded weapons and better armed units they will eventually overcome the SRA and the ICA due to the advantage in manpower and resources.

lyonheart wrote:Given all the options the ICA and RSA will have this summer, all four likely MHoGatA sub armies could be destroyed or defeated in uniquely different ways [meeting engagement, set battle, ironclads, cut off supplies etc] without RFC ever reaching his 'war porn' definition.

Well, I think the problems for the CoGA troops start earlier. The way I understand the supply situation, Rhobair was hard-pressed to supply last year's advance, which (without Harless' AoJ) was less than 30% of MHoGatA numbers IIRC. The CoGA was (and remains) effectively restricted to the major transport routes. That effectively limits the number of units of the MHoGatA the CoGA can deploy in the field simultaneously. So, defeat in detail is highly likely.
However, that raises a problem from a story telling perspective: If we as readers know in advance that the outcome of these military engagements is a sound CoGA defeat, where's the tension? Why would RFC need to tell that part of the story in a lot of detail?
I'm looking forward to his solution for that one.

Hi anwi and Lyonheart,

We seem to be at a lull in posting right now, so I thought I would go ahead and offer this thought.

I am having trouble visualizing any fortifications that the COGA might set up as being resistant to the heavier shells of DE's angle guns for any serious length of time.
Also, you can only get so many men under effective cover once the bombardment starts.

Thinking about the supply situation, I would think that the alliance would be better able to protect its supply convoys with calvary and dragoons than the people forted up would have busting through to raise the siege.

The Harchonese represent a huge force, but of marginally competent, for the most part indifferently armed soldiers, at best limited in mobility which will prove their undoing when the furbar starts.

Don

n7axw wrote

I am having trouble visualizing any fortifications that the COGA might set up as being resistant to the heavier shells of DE's angle guns for any serious length of time.
Also, you can only get so many men under effective cover once the bombardment starts.



Then there's another problem for the Temple Boys. We are assuming that some of those winter quartered troops are going to be forced to move, either to escape or to rescue other of their forces. As ill equipped as these troops are for winter travel-- they will be hard pressed to "Dig in" at all. Then, as you point out, effective cover is limited.

tootall wrote:n7axw wrote

I am having trouble visualizing any fortifications that the COGA might set up as being resistant to the heavier shells of DE's angle guns for any serious length of time.
Also, you can only get so many men under effective cover once the bombardment starts.



Then there's another problem for the Temple Boys. We are assuming that some of those winter quartered troops are going to be forced to move, either to escape or to rescue other of their forces. As ill equipped as these troops are for winter travel-- they will be hard pressed to "Dig in" at all. Then, as you point out, effective cover is limited.

The time frame at present is March. The Alliance still has Kaitswryth and Wyrshym to deal with as well as doing the end game on the Desnairians and Dohlarians. That is probably going to mean a minimum of two months before they can turn on the Harchongians. Unfortunately that probably means time to thaw out.

Don

Hi, as we're on withdrawal let's spend the time ... productively.

n7axw wrote:I am having trouble visualizing any fortifications that the COGA might set up as being resistant to the heavier shells of DE's angle guns for any serious length of time.
Also, you can only get so many men under effective cover once the bombardment starts.

I'm no military engineer, either, so I have to speculate, but I envisage a lot of dirt. My point of reference would be WWI trenches. If you dig in deep enough, you'd need todays' bunker busters or those Tallboy types munitions of WW2. Both are out of scope for the ICA, moreover they could not actually deploy these munitions lacking arial capabilities.
Barring that, the CoGA could dig in around e.g. a city. The ICA could certainly keep up an annoying level of bombardment, but the "kill ratio" would likely be too low to cut down CoGA units to a level where their defensive capabilities collapse. Moreover, the CoGA should be able to dig proper gun pits/fortified firing positions for its artillery, so that all close range engagements (e.g. mortars) would be a risky endeavour. And with deep trenches and hefty provisions in storage rooms in cellars or in specifically excavated rooms in bedrock (if available), depriving the CoGA units of the supply they need to continue the fight would be hard.
I would not assume that the CoGA capabilities would be sufficient to hold such a defensive position if the ICA really wants to take it at any cost (in lives), but it would take likely months of siege. And it would be costly just in terms of spent ammunition, of which there is a limited supply.

n7axw wrote:Thinking about the supply situation, I would think that the alliance would be better able to protect its supply convoys with calvary and dragoons than the people forted up would have busting through to raise the siege.

The Harchonese represent a huge force, but of marginally competent, for the most part indifferently armed soldiers, at best limited in mobility which will prove their undoing when the furbar starts.

On the supply situation: If the CoGA dug rather extensive trenches and fortifications (for > 100000 men) in a place with good lines of communication (at the Langhorne canal with access to high roads, etc.) keeping up a tight siege will be hard even for the ICA, I guess. Without motorized transport, they'd have to resupply (and provision) their forward units the hard way. And those forward units and their lines of communications would be vulnerable to CoGA counterattacks from the CoGA reserves (as they could raise and deploy another army of let's say 200000 for that purpose while the siege lasts). And if you don't block the CoGA lines of communication continuously, they'll be able to resupply and hold their position even longer.

On your points on the offensive "capabilities" of the "mighty" host, I agree, as I've indicated before. Again, their limitations define the catch 22 Magwair is in. He's not allowed to deploy them defensively (which would be the best he could do) or he loses them by defeat in detail on the offensive. It'll be interesting to see, when he and Rhobair realize these points and what they'll do then.