Hi Churchill,
Welcome to the forums!
Please enjoy your favorite simulated beverage on the simulated forum.
Kudos for some truly excellent analysis; I look forward to more in future posts.
Although I have a few quibbles...
Regarding the population differential, I'd argue that the 72 million people of the EoC, and the loyal roughly hundred million plus of the republic are only outnumbered a little over 4-1 at best by CoGA nations, and given that those on Howard are about to be cut off [around 300 million], the total of the CoGA on Haven after Silkiah and Dohlar have been removed from play [143 million combined] is down to around 353 millions or just over 2-1 odds, hardly insurmountable before considering 80-90% of those 353 million are serfs who might reconsider being hostile to their liberators.
When the MHoGatA are defeated, the CoGA armies will be used up, and the time remaining won't permit much in the way of replacing the lost arms and men let alone training them to any comparable standard, which admittedly isn't much by ICA standards, but if what's left of their officers and NCO's are still trying to cope with the first lessons the ICA taught them, they're going to keep making the same stupid early mistakes that will make it easy for the alliance to kill them all with few casualties, NTM hardly slowing them down as they advance, though as I've mentioned a few times BGV will likely be only a couple of 5days from Port Home and Zion by mid summer.
The CoGA's finances are indeed a mess, with direct taxation in the temple lands for the first time and Harchong actually paying 25% tithes, although how much will they attempt to claim is in South Harchong that the church can collect there?
I suspect the MHoGatA was supposed to be a good deal for the Go4, ie the Harchong serfs were far cheaper than paying that many free men; perhaps pay was only a half or a third mark per day, which went mainly to the imperial bureaucrats, but over 500-600 days adds up to hundreds of millions the CoGA has to pay out, but that is speculation on my part, since there is no direct textev.
But you're quite correct the CoGA has very little to show for all the wealth its spent and sunk on the Jihad, but the Go4 still has half its second tier properties available, before considering its first tier, NTM the Harchong tithes and the temple land taxes.
While the CoGA is certainly hurting the shock of the MHoGatA being defeated is going to hammer confidence in the CoGA actually winning the war, which will have definite financial and economic effects.
I suspect many vicar families in the eastern temple lands will realise they're too vulnerable and visit family in the western TL's, not helping any CoGA claims when the RSA and the alliance march in and attempts to mediate made.
L
[quote="Churchill"]Delurking
Wars are complicated activities with multiple components affecting actions, capabilities and status. Economics is a significant factor in any war and, ultimately, the war on Safehold is (IMHO) going to be resolved by the church's financial status.
Don't forget - Charis and Co. don't have the manpower to conquer the rest of the world or even a large chunk of it. It's debatable whether they have the ability to do much more than stabilize their southern, south-western and western fronts let alone push through a march to Zion. And there's no way they're going to take the temple via "conventional" means.
The church has been spending far more than their income for years now. They've exhausted their financial reserves. That's why Duchairn had to start selling off church properties and extending his tax base - so they could fund continuing operations through cash flow instead of reserves. But they're still running a deficit. And as other posters have noted, the cash is drying up. [There's lots of textev for this but I'm at work so can't quote.]
The most tax-productive countries on Safehold are the ones they're fighting, along with the Desnairian gold mines. Except that the church may be about to lose access to much of the south, including Despair's gold. Regardless, their income has shrunken drastically and is going to continue to shrink. Expenses haven't. In fact with the need to support such huge armies in the field they've probably increased.
Further the huge drain in funds over the course of the war hasn't been in the form of investment. It's primarily been to fund war operations and fighting capabilities; i.e. capital in the form of ships and weapons and the movement and support of fleets and armies. They haven't even been trying to conquer for tribute / plunder, they've been conquering to destroy. All that money is just gone. Sunk. All they have to show for it are a few inefficient foundries and ship-construction facilities they've built; and they're not going to have the resources, or markets, to make those financially productive.
The church needs to rein in expenses and get out of the red but they can't - not if they're going to keep fighting the war. Consequently they're getting close to the tipping point where they're simply going to run out of money. It's going to happen suddenly and it's possible that even Duchairn won't see it hit - though he undoubtedly knows it's looming.
When that happens the church will drop their bankrupt servants and turtle to survive off their protected core, the Temple Lands. At that point the Temple Lands will probably be the only part of the CoGA alliance with even the vestiges of a viable economy and all they'll be able to do is guard their borders.
That's when rfc will resolve things. There may be coup with Duchairn (or someone else) suing for peace. There may be a high tech strike to decapitate the Go4. Or rfc may surprise us all. Again.
Big brain dump. YMMV of course. And no doubt rfc will have ideas of his own. It will be fun to see it all come crashing down.
Lurk mode back on.[/quote]
