Gloriously Foolish Predictions 4 HFQ Major Events (SPOILERS)

phillies wrote:
A semaphore tower fire, clearly visible from the next semaphore, in which the building burns substantially to the ground, will stop the messages, but everyone can see *exactly why* there was a failure.

This works less well if the towers are stone. Burning stone is, well, suspicious.

That's the point. That's also why I think one of BGV's tactics will be to have the semaphore towers taken by stealth, using the scout/snipers.

Given the wretched state of Wyrshym's forces, their lack of adequate winter clothing, etc., I don't think the people in the towers will be venturing out very often, nor do I think they'll be looking out very often either. At least, they won't be if BGV/s forces maintain the element of surprise. If each tower is surprised, it should be relatively easy for the scout/snipers to take that tower by stealth, without having to burn anything in or around it.

Taking the towers intact would also have the side benefit that they'll then be available for BGV's own communications, without having to be repaired or rebuilt.

Hi XofDallas,

Given its the job of the semaphore crews to look outside the tower, it might seem impossible to surprise them, but being so focused on their job of straining to see the message from the adjacent towers, they might not see someone approach outside those viewing arcs, especially at night from the nearest forest etc.

I don't think action would be taken on a tower if it could be well observed or reported by another, but if other towers were known to be down or already taken, such concerns would be eliminated, so the blizzard would provide excellent cover in more ways than one.

L

XofDallas wrote:

phillies wrote:
A semaphore tower fire, clearly visible from the next semaphore, in which the building burns substantially to the ground, will stop the messages, but everyone can see *exactly why* there was a failure.

This works less well if the towers are stone. Burning stone is, well, suspicious.

That's the point. That's also why I think one of BGV's tactics will be to have the semaphore towers taken by stealth, using the scout/snipers.

Given the wretched state of Wyrshym's forces, their lack of adequate winter clothing, etc., I don't think the people in the towers will be venturing out very often, nor do I think they'll be looking out very often either. At least, they won't be if BGV/s forces maintain the element of surprise. If each tower is surprised, it should be relatively easy for the scout/snipers to take that tower by stealth, without having to burn anything in or around it.

Taking the towers intact would also have the side benefit that they'll then be available for BGV's own communications, without having to be repaired or rebuilt.

I just read a post by RFC on the Safehold semaphore systems, their capabilities and their limitations, dated June 1, 2008 (just before BSRA was published).

Semaphore systems in Safehold are quite sophisticated (some more than others, depending on whether they were major or minor systems, etc.). They were operable during daylight hours 85% of the time during the summer months, but only 40% of daylight time during the winter months. They were operable at night under only extremely limited conditions.

Further, courier boats were used to transport semaphore messages quickly between shore stations, also over established routes.

Two known semaphore stations are at coastal locations at Rollings Head (a peninsula in the far northeast of Siddarmark) and at Iron Cape, in the far northwest of Raven's Land. It's clear there was a semaphore system routed between the Temple Lands and Chisolm, obviously with a courier boat dedicated to the route between Iron Cape and Rollings Head. It likely was the major (or a major) route for such communications between Zion and the CoGA church heirarchy in Chisolm, prior to Sharleyan's defection.

It also clearly has suffered damage, the extent of which is not known, but which probably is significant, during SoS. At the very least, however, it cannot be expected to operate at night except in emergency conditions.

BGV's tactics will be to take out appropriate semaphore towers at night, hopefully as soon after dark as is possible, again without setting fires or setting off loud explosions. This can be done, especially if the stations are as poorly supplied (and its keepers as poorly clad) as Wyrshym's forces.

The problem will be keeping stations to the west of a taken station unalarmed during daylight hours, and thus maintaining surprise. That 40% winter operability statistic will help, but not totally.

It'll be interesting seeing whether, and how, surprise is (or is not) maintained.

So, to disrupt the semaphore system, I'd look at infiltration. Scout the layout. Check the crews and day to day activity. Learn the operational codes, etc.
One of Merlin's aliases could scout it and past on the information to an infiltration unit. Pass valid and invalid messages. You know the drill.

TN4994 wrote:So, to disrupt the semaphore system, I'd look at infiltration. Scout the layout. Check the crews and day to day activity. Learn the operational codes, etc.
One of Merlin's aliases could scout it and past on the information to an infiltration unit. Pass valid and invalid messages. You know the drill.

I'm not sure about invalid messages, but I definitely agree one of Merlin's aliases might give the scout snipers enough codes so they could pass on at least some "all is well," "sorry, the keeper's really sick so we won't be transmitting for a while" or "standby" codes.

The (admittedly, only potential) situation reminds me a bit of Book 5 of the General series. Raj Whitehall's troops did exactly that, as a means of maintaining the element of surprise when they wanted to take Tewfik's main supply depot.

I'm still speculating wildly, though. That's why these predictions are "gloriously foolish!"

XofDallas wrote:

TN4994 wrote:So, to disrupt the semaphore system, I'd look at infiltration. Scout the layout. Check the crews and day to day activity. Learn the operational codes, etc.
One of Merlin's aliases could scout it and past on the information to an infiltration unit. Pass valid and invalid messages. You know the drill.

I'm not sure about invalid messages, but I definitely agree one of Merlin's aliases might give the scout snipers enough codes so they could pass on at least some "all is well," "sorry, the keeper's really sick so we won't be transmitting for a while" or "standby" codes.

The (admittedly, only potential) situation reminds me a bit of Book 5 of the General series. Raj Whitehall's troops did exactly that, as a means of maintaining the element of surprise when they wanted to take Tewfik's main supply depot.

I'm still speculating wildly, though. That's why these predictions are "gloriously foolish!"

RFC did this in Heirs of Empire when Sean was doing a flank attack on the Church forces. It's not as if the concept is foreign to him.

XofDallas wrote:

TN4994 wrote:So, to disrupt the semaphore system, I'd look at infiltration. Scout the layout. Check the crews and day to day activity. Learn the operational codes, etc.
One of Merlin's aliases could scout it and past on the information to an infiltration unit. Pass valid and invalid messages. You know the drill.

I'm not sure about invalid messages, but I definitely agree one of Merlin's aliases might give the scout snipers enough codes so they could pass on at least some "all is well," "sorry, the keeper's really sick so we won't be transmitting for a while" or "standby" codes.

The (admittedly, only potential) situation reminds me a bit of Book 5 of the General series. Raj Whitehall's troops did exactly that, as a means of maintaining the element of surprise when they wanted to take Tewfik's main supply depot.

I'm still speculating wildly, though. That's why these predictions are "gloriously foolish!"

Not familar with your reference of the General series.
Brief synopsis and recommendation please.

fallsfromtrees wrote:

XofDallas wrote:
RFC did this in Heirs of Empire when Sean was doing a flank attack on the Church forces. It's not as if the concept is foreign to him.

Intercept and bribing message couriers (or signal operators) is old news in warfare. Great way to pass misinformation. Hey, here's a thought. From what I've read, the semaphore operators are usually civilians just doing a job. The type who have familys. Maybe an old grumpy grouch or two. So let's have one of Melin's helpers, say a Owyld Faigyn, Doctor Hu, or Dymosthynys, show these guys how they can benefit from working under the eyes of a squad of Charisian marines or sailors. Maybe even get a bonus in pay.

The General series, S.M. Stirling , David Drake ,a very good read while waiting for more Webber.

6L6 wrote:The General series, S.M. Stirling , David Drake ,a very good read while waiting for more Webber.

Thank you.