Gloriously Foolish Predictions 4 HFQ Major Events (SPOILERS)

Hektor's doctors will discover the extent of his recovery as they examine him. As his body knits back together, those doctors might well believe that Hektor is weak. 2 to 3 months after that body has largely finished knitting, all of those doctors would encourage greater activity. When the KH VII steams into Manchyr, good Hektor will have had several months of therapy.

Senior gunnery lieutenant on the first ocean going steam powered battleship sounds about right for a scion of the House of Ahrmahk to take on next in his progression to Admiral.

Hi JRM,

Thanks for the excellent analysis.

I think the winter fighting division and dragoon brigade with their scout snipers, artillery and engineers will total something closer to 30,000 than 28,000.

From the textev he has other units marching behind the winter warfare vanguard, at least another division etc, and BGV had month's to build up Allyntyn as a forward supply base for his 1000 mile drive on Guarnak.

I'd figure on a minimum of 60 days of supplies, which for a dragoon brigade or two totals 7200 tons fodder for 2 month's for each brigade, a tad more than what most larger other armies can manage.

Wyrshym can't retreat, nor can he recall the plug force at Wyvern Lake, ~270+ miles away, which might be the bulk of what he's got left, after BGV takes out Gorthyk Nybar and the Northland Gap garrison roughly 20% of the 65,000 he has left.

So again defeat in detail, sometime in April or early May.

A winter amphibious assault won't be necessary, though RFC could surprise us.

L


[quote="JRM"][quote="lyonheart"]Hi XofDallas,

"Very Interesting" - "Laugh In" etc

Permit me to respond to your bravely sharing your ideas.

1.
E. The town is a secondary objective at best, to be taken only after Guarnak, BGV's campaign objective, and waiting for the weather to warm up.

F. The New Northland Canal is rather long just by itself, so unless the steam powered canal barges are used, the time delay for delivery will be as slow as always.

G. I think BGV will destroy or capture Wyrshym's army by May at the latest.

H. I think you mean BGV will march on Five forks by the beginning of summer, not its end.

[/quote]

Hi XofDallas, and Lyonhart,

Regarding 1E and 1F

I think that there are some constraints on BGV campaign.

Consider types of canals:

There are rivers where canal locks use diverted water to raise and lower boats at portage points. Destroying the locks doesn’t affect the navigability of either the upriver or downriver section of the river. It just stops navigation through the portage points. This was that case of the Hildermoss, and why after COGA repairs the locks between East Wing Lake and the Hildermoss, that navigation can only go up the Hildermoss as far as Ayaltyn.

There are canals that are channelized rivers. Here the constant flow of water is sufficient that destroying downstream locks does not affect navigation upstream. The Guarnack-Ice Ash Canal appears to be one of these, because Captain Bahrns destroyed downstream locks after he passed them without disrupting his progress.

There are canals that are effectively large aqueducts. The flow of water is not sufficient for navigation unless the downstream locks slow down the flow. The Guarnack-Sylmahn Canal is one of these. Here Captain Bahrns destroyed the upstream locks and was able to proceed. Destroying the downstream locks not only blocked the portage point, but disrupted navigation all of the way back to Guarnack.

LAMA August II Page 83:
[quote]“We should at least be able to move supplies by sled once the canals do freeze over,” Maigwair said hopefully, but Duchairn shook his head again.
“That’s going to be true to some extent, Allayn, but we’ve got too many stretches of canal bed— and over seventy miles of aqueduct— which’re basically dry now. I’m not sure there’s going to be enough standing water in them to provide the kind of ice we usually see in the winter, and without the locks and the pumps, we can’t get the water into them, either.
[/quote]

The type of canal makes a difference in how it is defended. The aqueducts canals can be completely stopped at either end. Block the water going in, or remove any barrier to the water going out. For the Guarnak-Sylmahn, it means that until BGV controls the downstream locks, he can’t use it. The New Northland Canal was not damaged by Captain Bahrns. It is probably an aqueduct type of canal, and unless COGA can completely shut off the supply of water from the Hildermoss, controlling the downstream locks will keep the canal functional.

Consider; if the ability of the ICA to fight in the winter was the primary consideration for BGV’s campaign, then he would have begun the offensive around the first of February. It is not the primary consideration. BGV stopped the offensive out of the Sylmahn Gap, and moved his forces thousands of miles in order to position his forces for a continuous driving campaign where he has the logistical support to dictate the tempo and battlefield locations.

My conclusion is that he will use his approximately 28,000 troop advance group to clear the Northland Gap, St.Zhane, Fairkyn, Ohlarn, and the Guarnack Gap. He will have his approximately 48,000 troop remaining forces following almost immediately. It will actually be easier to move supplies while he can use sledges, than when limited by wheeled wagons to the high roads.

Snippet 9
[quote]The Royal Chisholmian Army had made a point of acclimating all of its units to winter marches, but only about a third of the entire army had been trained in actual winter war fighting, which was a much more demanding regimen.
[/quote]

There isn’t any reason to think that the main group isn’t equipped as the advanced group for winter conditions. This is particularly true if BGV was counting on Wyrshym’s expectations to discount the possibility of major troop movements before the thaw.

I don’t expect Wyrshym to retreat when he learns that the Guarnak Gap has been taken. He will have to know that his forces would be at a major disadvantage fighting an open field battle against forces that had trained and equipped to fight a winter war. He might pull forces from the Sylmahn Gap to fight defensively at Guarnak, but he can’t give up Guarnak because his supplies are there, and he will be reinforced there if he can hold out long enough.

I expect BGV’s main force to take Guarnak in a coordinated attack with ICA and RSA forces attacking out of the Sylmahn Gap. At that point, the Guarnak-Sylmahn canal can’t be used until he controls the locks on the Hildermoss. The New Northland Canal can be used if he controls the downstream locks. That is why the advance group will be tasked to take control of that canal and probably won’t be used at all for either Guarnak or the Sylmahn Gap. Hyrdmyn doesn’t have any strategic value unless it is the site of canal locks, and/or is the site of COGA troops.

Yes, I expect BGV to use steam powered barges. I also expect him to use some of the new Rivers after he secures the route to the Hildermoss.

James[/quote]

Reading JRM's and Lyonheart's latest posts, and the little blurb at the start of Snippet 11, I do have some thoughts:

BGV's Tactics (for each garrison/city/blocking force he encounters through to the Ohlarhn Gap):

1. Scout/snipers to take out the outposts without firing or burning anything. Should be easy - the AoG forces are so cold, ill-clothed and ill-sheltered, the scout/snipers probably can walk up to their doors.
2. CE scout/snipers take out any semaphores quietly, up to 30 miles west of each site. Thus, no one who can report it will see any smoke or hear any noise, maintaining surprise. The horizon from a 50 foot tower is about 7 mi (12 km), but smoke rises a lot higher than most realize. Prevailing west-to-east winds will help, though.
3. Attack first with mortars (hopefully with incendiary shells), targeting barracks, supply buildings, etc. Shoot AoG soldiers as they exit the buildings.
4. Mop up (relatively quickly)
5. Torch remaining buildings so nothing's left to build a shelter from. This way, sadly but necessarily, any surviving forces... won't survive.
6. Move west to next objective, taking over semaphore towers and outposts the same way.

Strategy:

The distances involved seem greater than most realize. Northland Gap is about 100 km across. Distance from Northland Gap to St. Zhana: 250 km; St. Zhana to Fairkyn: 400 km; Fairkyn to Ohlarhn: 200 km. This is bad, in the sense of how far BGV has to travel to reach his objectives, but it's good in the sense that he can keep the element of surprise, provided he can take out any semaphore communications without alerting anyone to the west. So:

1. Take out the Northland Gap garrison, St. Zhana, Fairkyn, and Ohlarhn/Ohlarhn Gap Garrison in turn. Capture as much of the Guarnak/Ice Ash Canal as possible, using the 28,000 winter combat trained troops.

2. Have the rest of the (winter-trained but not winter-combat-trained) forces follow to secure things and to establish and maintain good logistics, and to be available to assault Guarnak and help bottle up the Sylmahn Gap forces when the time comes.

3. Take Guarnak, and move all or a portion of troops south to bottle up the AoG forces holding the Sylmahn Gap.

4. (Possible) Send a portion of the combat-trained forces north to Hyrdmyn. Capture it using the same tactics, then go as far west as possible towards Five Forks, with the goal of capturing as much of the Northland Canal (and its locks) intact as possible.

5. (Possible, not likely) Send a portion as far west as possible along the Guarnak-Syomahn Canal, doing the same thing.

6. Establish a second (and possibly third) logistics route using the Guarnak/Ice Ash and Northland Canals, to augment the existing logistics. Phase out the overland logistics as soon as possible, freeing up troops.

How far BGV gets, and where, will depend on how fast he can move, how well he can maintain the element of surprise, and how well he can keep his forces supplied.

Personally, I can see him maintaining complete surprise through taking the Ohlarhn Gap, and he could also take Hyrdmyn by surprise the same way. What Wyrshym does from that point on, and how effective BGV is in taking (or at least neutralizing) Guarnak, will determine a lot of what happens from that point on.

lol, now as to Hektor:

He'll be groomed to take a very prominent part in the Corisande (and possibly Charisan) Navy. He's young, smart, obviously courageous, well-connected (well, yaknow, he is the "son" of the Emperor and Empress) and personable. His smarts aren't "court" smarts, either - they're combat and command smarts. And he's completely loyal, and trustworthy. The only question is how he is developed. Someone very senior will almost certainly be laying out a development plan for him. Some of that will include service on warships. Some will involve administrative duties. Just what he'll be doing, and when, we'll have to see. However, his service to this point has been mostly shipboard. So, to me, it's logical that a stint on the staff, or as an aide, of someone who's actually "running" a navy, would be perfectly appropriate for him at this point.

Nuff said. Have a good day!

XofDallas wrote:Reading JRM's and Lyonheart's latest posts, and the little blurb at the start of Snippet 11, I do have some thoughts:

BGV's Tactics (for each garrison/city/blocking force he encounters through to the Ohlarhn Gap):

1. Scout/snipers to take out the outposts without firing or burning anything. Should be easy - the AoG forces are so cold, ill-clothed and ill-sheltered, the scout/snipers probably can walk up to their doors.
2. CE scout/snipers take out any semaphores quietly, up to 30 miles west of each site. Thus, no one who can report it will see any smoke or hear any noise, maintaining surprise. The horizon from a 50 foot tower is about 7 mi (12 km), but smoke rises a lot higher than most realize. Prevailing west-to-east winds will help, though. snip

You are going to have to man the semaphores, or the fact that they stop responding or transmitting anything is in it self a warning that something wicked this way comes. Only by maintaining the normal traffic, and deleting any warning messages can surprise be maintained.

fallsfromtrees wrote:You are going to have to man the semaphores, or the fact that they stop responding or transmitting anything is in it self a warning that something wicked this way comes. Only by maintaining the normal traffic, and deleting any warning messages can surprise be maintained.

Agreed. Perhaps Master Slayter will make an appearance with the codes.

Either that or the semaphore system will have to have been shut down for a period. It'll be interesting to see how RFC handles this issue.

Hi XofDallas,

1. I can see the scout snipers kicking in doors and tossing in grenades including a smoke or incendiary, then finishing any survivors with their revolvers, or simply putting a [dynamite filled] claymore next to the door first, since I doubt most huts will have observation ports or windows.

2. Actually the horizon for a 50' tower is closer to 8.66 miles or almost 14 km.

I suspect many semaphore towers will be 'down' to avoid winter damage from blizzards, winds, snow and ice accumulation etc, so there will be gaps in a line that long [800 miles] where messages are held up due to weather, so taking a few might not be noticed for a while, while I suspect operating a semaphore tower is one of the skills scout snipers learn as part of their basic training.

I doubt the huts will burn so much that the smoke will be that noticeable, particularly during a blizzard, and once the inhabitants have been killed, the fire should be put out quickly and the rifles and ammunition etc scavenged, since the 5 AoG divisions could have ~4000 rifles in those huts.

3. I might also try the 4" rifles at a thousand yards since they have a 1 mil CEP, and could engage several huts quickly even with two rounds each, to save some running around or manpower at the south end of the gap, and wonder if BGV has tested the mortar shell's penetration of such hut or cabin roofs, and use the gunpowder rather than the anti-personnel shrapnel round which probably would have too little time to disperse properly after penetrating, something for the men to have trained on while they waited.

4. The time element for taking the Northland Gap will be brief, since the AoG will be rather spread out to cover the ~80 miles, possibly one company plus per mile, at least at the north end.

5. Burning what's left after everyone is dead isn't much of a problem, but there won't be many survivors to start with.

6. I think the scout snipers may have a standard tactic or repertory for taking semaphore towers, so I'll leave it in their hands.

Strategy. I differ on the distances, but the essentials have been the same for some time here, with the exception that anything beyond Guarnak is a winter campaign too far.

Regarding Hector in an administrative role, possible except Corisande doesn't have a navy at the moment.

It might be he would assist in the creation of the new Corisandan navy, developing a good relationship with Tartarian, but this would be mainly integrating what's left [at most schooners?] of the personnel into the ICN.

While he has some 5-6 years of ocean sailing experience, more than and Corisandan officer, explaining any detailed knowledge of its latest tech might be slightly awkward.

L

XofDallas wrote:Reading JRM's and Lyonheart's latest posts, and the little blurb at the start of Snippet 11, I do have some thoughts:

BGV's Tactics (for each garrison/city/blocking force he encounters through to the Ohlarhn Gap):

1. Scout/snipers to take out the outposts without firing or burning anything. Should be easy - the AoG forces are so cold, ill-clothed and ill-sheltered, the scout/snipers probably can walk up to their doors.
2. CE scout/snipers take out any semaphores quietly, up to 30 miles west of each site. Thus, no one who can report it will see any smoke or hear any noise, maintaining surprise. The horizon from a 50 foot tower is about 7 mi (12 km), but smoke rises a lot higher than most realize. Prevailing west-to-east winds will help, though.
3. Attack first with mortars (hopefully with incendiary shells), targeting barracks, supply buildings, etc. Shoot AoG soldiers as they exit the buildings.
4. Mop up (relatively quickly)
5. Torch remaining buildings so nothing's left to build a shelter from. This way, sadly but necessarily, any surviving forces... won't survive.
6. Move west to next objective, taking over semaphore towers and outposts the same way.

Strategy:

The distances involved seem greater than most realize. Northland Gap is about 100 km across. Distance from Northland Gap to St. Zhana: 250 km; St. Zhana to Fairkyn: 400 km; Fairkyn to Ohlarhn: 200 km. This is bad, in the sense of how far BGV has to travel to reach his objectives, but it's good in the sense that he can keep the element of surprise, provided he can take out any semaphore communications without alerting anyone to the west. So:

1. Take out the Northland Gap garrison, St. Zhana, Fairkyn, and Ohlarhn/Ohlarhn Gap Garrison in turn. Capture as much of the Guarnak/Ice Ash Canal as possible, using the 28,000 winter combat trained troops.

2. Have the rest of the (winter-trained but not winter-combat-trained) forces follow to secure things and to establish and maintain good logistics, and to be available to assault Guarnak and help bottle up the Sylmahn Gap forces when the time comes.

3. Take Guarnak, and move all or a portion of troops south to bottle up the AoG forces holding the Sylmahn Gap.

4. (Possible) Send a portion of the combat-trained forces north to Hyrdmyn. Capture it using the same tactics, then go as far west as possible towards Five Forks, with the goal of capturing as much of the Northland Canal (and its locks) intact as possible.

5. (Possible, not likely) Send a portion as far west as possible along the Guarnak-Syomahn Canal, doing the same thing.

6. Establish a second (and possibly third) logistics route using the Guarnak/Ice Ash and Northland Canals, to augment the existing logistics. Phase out the overland logistics as soon as possible, freeing up troops.

How far BGV gets, and where, will depend on how fast he can move, how well he can maintain the element of surprise, and how well he can keep his forces supplied.

Personally, I can see him maintaining complete surprise through taking the Ohlarhn Gap, and he could also take Hyrdmyn by surprise the same way. What Wyrshym does from that point on, and how effective BGV is in taking (or at least neutralizing) Guarnak, will determine a lot of what happens from that point on.

lol, now as to Hektor:

He'll be groomed to take a very prominent part in the Corisande (and possibly Charisan) Navy. He's young, smart, obviously courageous, well-connected (well, yaknow, he is the "son" of the Emperor and Empress) and personable. His smarts aren't "court" smarts, either - they're combat and command smarts. And he's completely loyal, and trustworthy. The only question is how he is developed. Someone very senior will almost certainly be laying out a development plan for him. Some of that will include service on warships. Some will involve administrative duties. Just what he'll be doing, and when, we'll have to see. However, his service to this point has been mostly shipboard. So, to me, it's logical that a stint on the staff, or as an aide, of someone who's actually "running" a navy, would be perfectly appropriate for him at this point.

Nuff said. Have a good day!

lyonheart wrote:

I suspect many semaphore towers will be 'down' to avoid winter damage from blizzards, winds, snow and ice accumulation etc, so there will be gaps in a line that long [800 miles] where messages are held up due to weather, so taking a few might not be noticed for a while, while I suspect operating a semaphore tower is one of the skills scout snipers learn as part of their basic training.

The towers being down from time to time due to illness, inattention or death by hypothermia of its keepers or signalmen might also lull anyone to the west from suspecting anything drastic.

The ships of the Coisandian navy wre incorporated into the ICN as part of the armistice agreement when Corisande surrendered. There are no national navies in the EOC.

But it would make sense for Hektor and Gahrvai to work together on recruitment.

Don

XofDallas wrote:

fallsfromtrees wrote:You are going to have to man the semaphores, or the fact that they stop responding or transmitting anything is in it self a warning that something wicked this way comes. Only by maintaining the normal traffic, and deleting any warning messages can surprise be maintained.

Agreed. Perhaps Master Slayter will make an appearance with the codes.

Either that or the semaphore system will have to have been shut down for a period. It'll be interesting to see how RFC handles this issue.

A semaphore tower fire, clearly visible from the next semaphore, in which the building burns substantially to the ground, will stop the messages, but everyone can see *exactly why* there was a failure.

This works less well if the towers are stone. Burning stone is, well, suspicious.

phillies wrote:A semaphore tower fire, clearly visible from the next semaphore, in which the building burns substantially to the ground, will stop the messages, but everyone can see *exactly why* there was a failure.

This works less well if the towers are stone. Burning stone is, well, suspicious.

And then the question is going to arise, why did the semaphore burn. The answer may well not be the BGV's liking.