Gloriously Foolish Predictions 4 HFQ Major Events (SPOILERS)

I don't think BGV will be dividing his forces to invite defeat in detail. His objective will be to take Wyrshym out of the picture so he can bring Stohner's troops up out of the gap.

Irys has achieved "Our Lady of the Lake" status in Corisande. Waging one tongue in a trashy way about her could be hazardous to one's health.

Don

XofDallas wrote:
c. At least one town enjoys good weather, so BGV has scout snipers quietly take any semaphore stations up to 40 mi west of that town before attacking, so no smoke or fires are noticed by intact semaphore stations, keeping the element of surprise.

OK I have to ask. Why worry about if the AoG knows if BGV is coming?
What can they do, sally forth in their inadequate clothing and freeze? Making sure that the AoG knows the ICA is coming will possibly cause panic to General Winter along.

He has shown initiative and ingenuity. His iirc brother is extremely sharp, so he likely is, too. And if his wife's bodyguard gives him sound advice, well, seijin are supposed to do that.

JeffEngel wrote:

B. I see no textev for him having any such aptitude in naval administration, service on the KH VII's seems more likely.
L

Is Hector any longer in a physical condition for sea service? I forget just how badly he came off after Clintahn's little "wedding present", even with all busy nanites could do, but as I recall, sea-going naval careers had been ended by less maiming than he suffered.

And while he hasn't demonstrated any such aptitude, he is young, adaptable, clever, and dutiful, and it's a field clearly related to what he does have experience doing, so some shore-side job for him would seem suitable. Given his position as both Ahrmahk (adopted) and Daykyn (married) royalty, and the heroic stature he's got in Corisande now, there's fine political reason to keep him ashore too. Rebuilding Corisande's navy as a component of the ICN is a big and important job, and while he's mighty junior in naval service to occupy a senior role in it, his political status and undoubted practical experience with galleon warfare can still make him important in that role.

iranuke wrote:

XofDallas wrote:
c. At least one town enjoys good weather, so BGV has scout snipers quietly take any semaphore stations up to 40 mi west of that town before attacking, so no smoke or fires are noticed by intact semaphore stations, keeping the element of surprise.

OK I have to ask. Why worry about if the AoG knows if BGV is coming?
What can they do, sally forth in their inadequate clothing and freeze? Making sure that the AoG knows the ICA is coming will possibly cause panic to General Winter along.

If they know far enough in advance, they will be able to set up more difficult defenses. Better to catch them by surprise - General Winter will appear soon enough, and General Panic will also make his appearance on schedule.

Hi JeffEngel,

Hector's main problem is showing how quickly he's recovered, apparently the main wound he suffers from is that he may not recover the full use of his left hand, so otherwise physically he's doing great.

Secondly, regarding rumors of someone else getting Irys pregnant, the palace servants and guards know how tight security is and what is going on, so they will quash that rumor rather speedily, if her pregnancy isn't proof of Hector's miraculous healing, indeed I can see Hector being asked by people, perhaps a few of Sharleyan's ministers to anoint their eyes with his healed hands and being surprised when they can see better etc.

Thirdly, he's rather young to take a big stick at naval administration, serving aboard the KH VII's as a gunnery senior lieutenant would show that the House of Ahrmahk continues to expect its sons to serve in danger, which out to bind him to Corisandans even more when he had such obvious 'outs'.

L

JeffEngel wrote:

B. I see no textev for him having any such aptitude in naval administration, service on the KH VII's seems more likely.
L

Is Hector any longer in a physical condition for sea service? I forget just how badly he came off after Clintahn's little "wedding present", even with all busy nanites could do, but as I recall, sea-going naval careers had been ended by less maiming than he suffered.

And while he hasn't demonstrated any such aptitude, he is young, adaptable, clever, and dutiful, and it's a field clearly related to what he does have experience doing, so some shore-side job for him would seem suitable. Given his position as both Ahrmahk (adopted) and Daykyn (married) royalty, and the heroic stature he's got in Corisande now, there's fine political reason to keep him ashore too. Rebuilding Corisande's navy as a component of the ICN is a big and important job, and while he's mighty junior in naval service to occupy a senior role in it, his political status and undoubted practical experience with galleon warfare can still make him important in that role.

iranuke
c. At least one town enjoys good weather, so BGV has scout snipers quietly take any semaphore stations up to 40 mi west of that town before attacking, so no smoke or fires are noticed by intact semaphore stations, keeping the element of surprise.
[/quote]
OK I have to ask. Why worry about if the AoG knows if BGV is coming?
What can they do, sally forth in their inadequate clothing and freeze? Making sure that the AoG knows the ICA is coming will possibly cause panic to General Winter along.[/quote]

From my view-if one of the CoGA armies -"Just disappears", it would cause untold fun for us readers, as we follow the Temple higher ups screaming, "What do you mean you haven't heard from 45,000 troops for 3 five days??" What do you mean they're missing????

tootall wrote:iranuke
c. At least one town enjoys good weather, so BGV has scout snipers quietly take any semaphore stations up to 40 mi west of that town before attacking, so no smoke or fires are noticed by intact semaphore stations, keeping the element of surprise.

OK I have to ask. Why worry about if the AoG knows if BGV is coming?
What can they do, sally forth in their inadequate clothing and freeze? Making sure that the AoG knows the ICA is coming will possibly cause panic to General Winter along.[/quote]

From my view-if one of the CoGA armies -"Just disappears", it would cause untold fun for us readers, as we follow the Temple higher ups screaming, "What do you mean you haven't heard from 45,000 troops for 3 five days??" What do you mean they're missing????[/quote]

AND Then, timed to do most damage to Go4's temper and judgement, comes the "telegram" from Cayleb :-

"We've got 'em"

(OR, to drive Clyntahn over the edge, have Diallyd Mab deliver the message)

lyonheart wrote:Hi XofDallas,

"Very Interesting" - "Laugh In" etc

Permit me to respond to your bravely sharing your ideas.

1.
E. The town is a secondary objective at best, to be taken only after Guarnak, BGV's campaign objective, and waiting for the weather to warm up.

F. The New Northland Canal is rather long just by itself, so unless the steam powered canal barges are used, the time delay for delivery will be as slow as always.

G. I think BGV will destroy or capture Wyrshym's army by May at the latest.

H. I think you mean BGV will march on Five forks by the beginning of summer, not its end.

Hi XofDallas, and Lyonhart,

Regarding 1E and 1F

I think that there are some constraints on BGV campaign.

Consider types of canals:

There are rivers where canal locks use diverted water to raise and lower boats at portage points. Destroying the locks doesn’t affect the navigability of either the upriver or downriver section of the river. It just stops navigation through the portage points. This was that case of the Hildermoss, and why after COGA repairs the locks between East Wing Lake and the Hildermoss, that navigation can only go up the Hildermoss as far as Ayaltyn.

There are canals that are channelized rivers. Here the constant flow of water is sufficient that destroying downstream locks does not affect navigation upstream. The Guarnack-Ice Ash Canal appears to be one of these, because Captain Bahrns destroyed downstream locks after he passed them without disrupting his progress.

There are canals that are effectively large aqueducts. The flow of water is not sufficient for navigation unless the downstream locks slow down the flow. The Guarnack-Sylmahn Canal is one of these. Here Captain Bahrns destroyed the upstream locks and was able to proceed. Destroying the downstream locks not only blocked the portage point, but disrupted navigation all of the way back to Guarnack.

LAMA August II Page 83:

“We should at least be able to move supplies by sled once the canals do freeze over,” Maigwair said hopefully, but Duchairn shook his head again.
“That’s going to be true to some extent, Allayn, but we’ve got too many stretches of canal bed— and over seventy miles of aqueduct— which’re basically dry now. I’m not sure there’s going to be enough standing water in them to provide the kind of ice we usually see in the winter, and without the locks and the pumps, we can’t get the water into them, either.

The type of canal makes a difference in how it is defended. The aqueducts canals can be completely stopped at either end. Block the water going in, or remove any barrier to the water going out. For the Guarnak-Sylmahn, it means that until BGV controls the downstream locks, he can’t use it. The New Northland Canal was not damaged by Captain Bahrns. It is probably an aqueduct type of canal, and unless COGA can completely shut off the supply of water from the Hildermoss, controlling the downstream locks will keep the canal functional.

Consider; if the ability of the ICA to fight in the winter was the primary consideration for BGV’s campaign, then he would have begun the offensive around the first of February. It is not the primary consideration. BGV stopped the offensive out of the Sylmahn Gap, and moved his forces thousands of miles in order to position his forces for a continuous driving campaign where he has the logistical support to dictate the tempo and battlefield locations.

My conclusion is that he will use his approximately 28,000 troop advance group to clear the Northland Gap, St.Zhane, Fairkyn, Ohlarn, and the Guarnack Gap. He will have his approximately 48,000 troop remaining forces following almost immediately. It will actually be easier to move supplies while he can use sledges, than when limited by wheeled wagons to the high roads.

Snippet 9

The Royal Chisholmian Army had made a point of acclimating all of its units to winter marches, but only about a third of the entire army had been trained in actual winter war fighting, which was a much more demanding regimen.

There isn’t any reason to think that the main group isn’t equipped as the advanced group for winter conditions. This is particularly true if BGV was counting on Wyrshym’s expectations to discount the possibility of major troop movements before the thaw.

I don’t expect Wyrshym to retreat when he learns that the Guarnak Gap has been taken. He will have to know that his forces would be at a major disadvantage fighting an open field battle against forces that had trained and equipped to fight a winter war. He might pull forces from the Sylmahn Gap to fight defensively at Guarnak, but he can’t give up Guarnak because his supplies are there, and he will be reinforced there if he can hold out long enough.

I expect BGV’s main force to take Guarnak in a coordinated attack with ICA and RSA forces attacking out of the Sylmahn Gap. At that point, the Guarnak-Sylmahn canal can’t be used until he controls the locks on the Hildermoss. The New Northland Canal can be used if he controls the downstream locks. That is why the advance group will be tasked to take control of that canal and probably won’t be used at all for either Guarnak or the Sylmahn Gap. Hyrdmyn doesn’t have any strategic value unless it is the site of canal locks, and/or is the site of COGA troops.

Yes, I expect BGV to use steam powered barges. I also expect him to use some of the new Rivers after he secures the route to the Hildermoss.

James

Just read Snippet 11 (Thanks, RFC)!!!

First paragraph at least partially seems to answer a question on BGV's tactics. Among other things, destroy the enemy's shelter. Their options will be: (1) move and freeze to death; or (2) stay and freeze to death.

It'll be interesting to see how he goes about this. Incendiary mortar rounds, perhaps? Flamethrowers? Or just plain attack and burn out, without worrying too much about mop-up, as long as wooden structures are destroyed or burned. From the snippet, taking care of outposts should be relatively easy. The only issue (from a surprise point of view) might be the visibility of smoke during clear days. I'll have go go back and look at previous snippets, but wasn't he waiting for a window where he could travel in good weather, and reach the enemy at about the same time as the onset of bad weather (and the resulting poor visibility)? If so, this could be why.

Edit: Not a snippet, but p. 684 et. seq. of LAMA. He was waiting for good weather to travel. Perhaps the distances involved make my concerns invalid. Ah well.

Honestly, the fact that Hector has to hid his recovery is a major factor in him probably not getting back to sea anytime soon. He is going to be stuck in his wheelchair for months, almost certainly followed by months of rigorous PT as he "learns" to walk again, and by that time the Crown will officially have learned of Irys' pregnancy, so they arent going to pull him to the other end of the world just when Irys is about to go into labor, .... All in all, it will probably be a year minimum before they even consider pulling him out of Corisonde. In the meantime, it would only make sense to have him start working on some "Desk Duty" projects for the ICN and the government.

lyonheart wrote:Hi JeffEngel,

Hector's main problem is showing how quickly he's recovered, apparently the main wound he suffers from is that he may not recover the full use of his left hand, so otherwise physically he's doing great.

Secondly, regarding rumors of someone else getting Irys pregnant, the palace servants and guards know how tight security is and what is going on, so they will quash that rumor rather speedily, if her pregnancy isn't proof of Hector's miraculous healing, indeed I can see Hector being asked by people, perhaps a few of Sharleyan's ministers to anoint their eyes with his healed hands and being surprised when they can see better etc.

Thirdly, he's rather young to take a big stick at naval administration, serving aboard the KH VII's as a gunnery senior lieutenant would show that the House of Ahrmahk continues to expect its sons to serve in danger, which out to bind him to Corisandans even more when he had such obvious 'outs'.

L

JeffEngel wrote: B. I see no textev for him having any such aptitude in naval administration, service on the KH VII's seems more likely.
L

Is Hector any longer in a physical condition for sea service? I forget just how badly he came off after Clintahn's little "wedding present", even with all busy nanites could do, but as I recall, sea-going naval careers had been ended by less maiming than he suffered.

And while he hasn't demonstrated any such aptitude, he is young, adaptable, clever, and dutiful, and it's a field clearly related to what he does have experience doing, so some shore-side job for him would seem suitable. Given his position as both Ahrmahk (adopted) and Daykyn (married) royalty, and the heroic stature he's got in Corisande now, there's fine political reason to keep him ashore too. Rebuilding Corisande's navy as a component of the ICN is a big and important job, and while he's mighty junior in naval service to occupy a senior role in it, his political status and undoubted practical experience with galleon warfare can still make him important in that role.