anwi wrote:n7axw wrote:Hi Anwi,
Well, between us let's see if we can come up with some numbers. You feel free to refine this, Lyonheart since you're better than I with numbers. We know the numbers for Charis. Charis' population is 72,000,000 with about 400,000 for their army and 300,000 for their navy as of the beginning of the campaign in MTAT. It terms of the casualties, the Empire has yet to take a real strong hit except for Taisyn and that mess on the Daivyn.
(snip)
O.K., let's do some maths. First, let's leave out Siddarmark, they don't count for the ICA and ICN. And building up the RSA should be a prime objective, anyways.
Then, we should take a bit closer look at the EoC numbers, RFC has provided.
Chisholm.....................15,000,000
Corisande....................15,000,000
Emerald.......................9,000,000
Old Charis...................14,000,000
Tarot........................11,000,000
Windswept Island................150,000
Zebediah......................8,000,000
Next, we have to note that only Chisholm, Old Charis, and with some restrictions Emerald are sufficiently long integrated into the EoC to support the numbers you've talked about. So, for now let's discount the rest. That leaves us with about 38 Mio People. 50% of those are not allowed to fight in the field, so we're down to 19 Mio., which is quite a lot. Assuming an average life expectancy of 66 Safeholdian years, an age group comes in at about 290,000 males. Now, the ICN and ICA are not using a draft system, yet, and the mass of the soldiers tends to be young. Let's say the main body of volunteers is from 12 age groups (18-30), that's then about 3.5 Mio people. Thus, they have roughly 20% of that age group under arms. (I'm not quite sure, if the 700,000 total is only the field strength or if it includes home guard, training, logistics, courier, medical and other staff as well. That would increase the percentages even further...) 20%+ is quite a lot, especially for a system without draft and given that not everybody will be a wholehearted supporter of the CoC.
I agree that it's not catastrophically high numbers, but still - all those young males are not available for these other jobs. That's got to have some impact on the economy and especially growth perspectives already. The fact that RFC has mentioned women working in factories is one indicator that there is a bottleneck in the traditional (male) labour force. However, tapping the women labour reservoir is not that easy since centuries of social restrictions have to be overcome - even in Old Charis.
As to the other parts of the EoC: In the beginning they were not described as having large standing forces (naval and especially not army) - and they were inferior in agricultural and industrial efficiency than Old Charis. Changing that so that really large numbers of men can be freed for military service is a non-trivial task. That's especially relevant for Zebediah and Corisande in my opinion.
I would assume that Tarot alone might be able to systain 50,000 to 100,000 men under arms, and Corisande and Zebediah will bring in at least the same numbers on the short term. That'll bring the EoC to approximately 1 Mio servicemen - quite a number. But agriculture and industry will be even more backward in those realms, and they will be more hesitant with allowing woman taking "male" jobs, further limiting the potential.
However, going signicifantly beyond 1 Mio will be difficult. Not theoretically or because there's a lack of warm bodies, but rather because of the need for a draft system and the adverse effects on the industrialization of the EoC.
From my point of view, the economical restrictions should limit the EoC to increasing its active duty military beyond ~ 1 Mio for the next year or two (or three). And you simply can't deploy all your units in the field.
(snip)n7axw wrote:IIRC, Merlin was expecting the allies armed forces to eventually reach 4-5 percent of total population which between the two lets call at roughly 170,000,000. (SNIP)
So the chokepoint isn't a manpower issue. The problem is that the alliance still doesn't have a large enough industrial base to arm the men she can field promptly, especially on the army side of things. (snip)
I would expect the EOC's armed forces to expand somewhat from here, but perhaps not hugely so. More will be put into manning the assembly lines, raising food, etc.
I think that the 4-5% figure was related to a hypothetical situation with a prolongued war with an actual war economy. I would assume that the inner circle would be aware of the impact on further growth perspectives and rather not go down that route.
Now, in the conclusion, I agree - they will put units from the new additions of the EoC into service. It's imperative for political reasons and could ease the strain on the Chisholm and Old Charis units a bit. The rest of their young workforce is better used for further industrializing their states. That's even more important than winning some battle in Siddarmark.
And, as I keep writing, expanding the SRA numbers beyond the pre-war level is the way to go for the alliance.
In summary, we arrived at very similar conclusions...
From his comments, Lyonheart and I differ somewhat on how many people the EOC will field in the military.
I am not sure that huge additional numbers are really needed from the Empire with the Republic reorganizing its armed forces and franticly recruiting more. I foresee some growth in the numbers that the EOC puts into uniform.
But I would imagine that the industrial sector will expand from Charis into the rest of the empire as well as Charisian agricultural tools and methods. Producing enough weapons to arm the people Siddamark can recruit is at least as important as recruiting more military.
Don
