Official HFQ Snippet #10

n7axw wrote:It seems to me that it could be that it would be useful for this discussion if we knew how many people that Wyrshym had in the Sylvan Gap and how many are in Guarnak.

When BGV rejected the idea for an assault across the lake at a place where a subordinate thought he had found a weak spot, it was for two reasons. First he had concerns about how the logistics would work out. Secondly he had it in mind to trap Wyrshym in the gap. I think that means slipping around behind the AOG and taking Guarnak. At least that seems to me to be the logical consequence of BVG's concern about the AOG staying in the Sylvan Gap area so they could be trapped.

When the proposal for assaulting across the lake was made, the Army of the Sylvan Gap was much larger than it is now. I recall a figure of about 65,000 left after the decision was made to send the pikemen to the rear to be rearmed with rifles and be retrained. Then there were the men sent off under Goryk (sp) to reinforce Allyntown and who so far as we know are still facing BGV.

What it ends up amounting to is that if Wyrshym has his forces split up, the assault across the lake becomes more feasible and BVG has an opportunity to defeat and destroy the AOG in detail.

Don

JRM wrote:Hi All,

I reread the posts for this thread, and there are some aspects that I don’t see.

We don’t have a date for when ice turns to mud, but MTAT, April Ch III, page 77 indicates that the thaw occurs in the Gray Wall Mountains around April 20. We have some COGA troop movement information in the following sections:
MTAT April XVII Page 226
MTAT June III Page 403
MTAT June III Page 409
MTAT June IX Page 440-441

Basically COGA troops transport had been held up in 896, because 1) The movement hadn’t been coordinated with Allayn Maigwair, and 2) because canal sabotage had to be repaired. Nevertheless, Bishop Milatant Bahrnabai’s army reached Guarnak before the end of June.

By August 896, COGA was repairing the damage of the canal raid as was described in the following sections:
LAMA August II Page 83
LAMA August II Page 85

The plan in August is to have the canal system operational by the end of March if they can work through November and February, and by mid-April if they can’t.

COGA knew in September that BGV had taken Allyntyn, and the priority that they put on reinforcing the Army of Sylmahn would be based on their expectation of the time that it took BGV to bring his army into contact with the Army of Sylmahn. In other words, I would expect supplies and troops to start pouring into Guarnak as soon as the canal system is operational.

Another thing that is missing is BGVs thoughts on the Guarnak-Sylmahn Canal in reference to the missing logistical planning of Brigadier Traigair’s proposal.
LAMA August III Page 95

I think that the advanced troops that BGV are with are tasked to 1) clear the road to Guarnak, and 2) to secure all canal locks and pumps on the New Northland Canal. I expect BGVs main force to hit the Army of Sylmahn just before they can be reinforced. I expect BGV to move east with supplies from the Guarnak-Sylmahn Canal, until the army is in position to receive supplies from the New Northland Canal. I expect BGV to keep driving, hopefully to meet COGA forces that aren’t dug in.

I expect BGV to be reequipped with M96s and breech loading artillery before he makes contact with the army from Harchong.

And that is probably further than any campaign plan could be expected remain intact.

James

lyonheart wrote:Hi Don,

Getting some hard numbers certainly would help our prognostications, wouldn't it?

If there is a real conflict between what BGV thinks Wyrshym's numbers are and what Wyrshym thinks are BGV's numbers, ie Wyrshym is quite misinformed about the size of BGV's army, things could get very interesting indeed.

Gorthyk Nybar was sent out to command those already there, besides his own 6000, so the Northland Gap could be between 10-12,000 or more [ie around 20% of Wyrshym's total force] trying to cover ~80 miles, a useful fraction to eliminate, aside from eliminating Nybar's brain from the AoG and what he's already accomplished, as previously posted.

From the textev, I'd assume the Lake Wyvern north shore defenses require around 30,000 men, leaving roughly 20,000 in Guarnak approximately 270 miles away, and some few thousands in the villages or towns along the high road between it and St, Zhana ~800 miles by road.

From Guarnak to the Northland Gap is a thousand miles by the high road, 1200 to Allyntyn an incredible distance for any Terran winter campaign, let alone a colder Safehold one.

I really doubt a winter amphibious assault will happen, and BGV may delay things until he's sure the AoG has abandoned their shore bunkers before approving the actual assault.

But I also don't think its required for BGV to defeat the Army of the Syman in detail.

L

n7axw wrote:It seems to me that it could be that it would be useful for this discussion if we knew how many people that Wyrshym had in the Sylvan Gap and how many are in Guarnak.

When BGV rejected the idea for an assault across the lake at a place where a subordinate thought he had found a weak spot, it was for two reasons. First he had concerns about how the logistics would work out. Secondly he had it in mind to trap Wyrshym in the gap. I think that means slipping around behind the AOG and taking Guarnak. At least that seems to me to be the logical consequence of BVG's concern about the AOG staying in the Sylvan Gap area so they could be trapped.

When the proposal for assaulting across the lake was made, the Army of the Sylvan Gap was much larger than it is now. I recall a figure of about 65,000 left after the decision was made to send the pikemen to the rear to be rearmed with rifles and be retrained. Then there were the men sent off under Goryk (sp) to reinforce Allyntown and who so far as we know are still facing BGV.

What it ends up amounting to is that if Wyrshym has his forces split up, the assault across the lake becomes more feasible and BVG has an opportunity to defeat and destroy the AOG in detail.

Don

Reptide wrote:hi all
here is few of my thoughts.
1 Are the canals repaired? i mean if i remember right canal will be repaire sometime in mid spring so suply to guarnak cant start flow with meld.
2 where are hill dragons? dont forget temple sent them to some wamer place so even if canal are repair they cant start move significant suply until they get them back.
3 Merlin say mutiple time that quote about tactic and strategy. So if BGV is smart he go after strategik target so five forks and he dont realy have to get there before melt all he need is secure new norland canal before temple order destroid locks, dont forgot he need denial suply movement for guarnak and thats his win.

so when BGV "corker" canal AoG are in dilema if they sent units from guarnak it will look like retreat and it will have to be at least 100k+ men of course they can sent men from gurnak to north to cut BGV line but i think 1-2k mens in ohlarn gap cool they adventure mood. Or they move ahead Harchonk horde whith is somewhere in border states so about month from five forks and by that time ironclads wil be on hildermoss river and BGV get reinforcements.
it will be bloodbath...

p.s. just one question. How much are harchong trained?
btw Excuse my english i more read then type.

phillies wrote:With respect to reaching Guarnak, it is not obvious to me that we know when they actually started, or how far forward they have moved at this point. a direction from a town is somewhat imprecise. Thus, they may well be able to reach Guarnak in a reasonable time.

n7axw wrote:*quote="lyonheart"*Hi Don,

Getting some hard numbers certainly would help our prognostications, wouldn't it?

If there is a real conflict between what BGV thinks Wyrshym's numbers are and what Wyrshym thinks are BGV's numbers, ie Wyrshym is quite misinformed about the size of BGV's army, things could get very interesting indeed.

Gorthyk Nybar was sent out to command those already there, besides his own 6000, so the Northland Gap could be between 10-12,000 or more [ie around 20% of Wyrshym's total force] trying to cover ~80 miles, a useful fraction to eliminate, aside from eliminating Nybar's brain from the AoG and what he's already accomplished, as previously posted.

From the textev, I'd assume the Lake Wyvern north shore defenses require around 30,000 men, leaving roughly 20,000 in Guarnak approximately 270 miles away, and some few thousands in the villages or towns along the high road between it and St, Zhana ~800 miles by road.

From Guarnak to the Northland Gap is a thousand miles by the high road, 1200 to Allyntyn an incredible distance for any Terran winter campaign, let alone a colder Safehold one.

I really doubt a winter amphibious assault will happen, and BGV may delay things until he's sure the AoG has abandoned their shore bunkers before approving the actual assault.

But I also don't think its required for BGV to defeat the Army of the Syman in every detail.

L

n7axw wrote:It seems to me that it could be that it would be useful for this discussion if we knew how many people that Wyrshym had in the Sylvan Gap and how many are in Guarnak.

When BGV rejected the idea for an assault across the lake at a place where a subordinate thought he had found a weak spot, it was for two reasons. First he had concerns about how the logistics would work out. Secondly he had it in mind to trap Wyrshym in the gap. I think that means slipping around behind the AOG and taking Guarnak. At least that seems to me to be the logical consequence of BVG's concern about the AOG staying in the Sylvan Gap area so they could be trapped.

When the proposal for assaulting across the lake was made, the Army of the Sylvan Gap was much larger than it is now. I recall a figure of about 65,000 left after the decision was made to send the pikemen to the rear to be rearmed with rifles and be retrained. Then there were the men sent off under Goryk (sp) to reinforce Allyntown and who so far as we know are still facing BGV.

What it ends up amounting to is that if Wyrshym has his forces split up, the assault across the lake becomes more feasible and BVG has an opportunity to defeat and destroy the AOG in detail.

Don

*quote*

Hi Lyonheart,

You would be right if BGV were still in Allyntyn. But where is he as per the snapshot we get in the snippet? Just getting started? Half way? Where? About the best I can come up with is that they are enroute.

I think your numbers do make sense. I wonder if Wyrsham can pull his troops out of the fortifications by the lake without finding himself completely surrounded rather than just cut off. I haven't seen any figures about what Stohner and his Charisian allies have facing the AOG across the lake, but I bet Siddermark has sent substantial reinforcements.

It could be that defeat of Wyrshym's army in detail is what's coming or perhaps he will unit his forces to have pressure on at least two fronts if the allied forces break across the lake.

Don