Official HFQ Snippet #10

isaac_newton wrote:
Here's exactly what BGV says to the others in the inner circle just in the last chapter before the LAMA epilogue

"We'll be one hell of a lot more mobile than he is with the caribou and High Hallows for the mounted infantry too. I'm confident that we'll at least manage to roll up his forward positions and clear the Northland Gap. With only a little luck, we'll make it as far as Fairkyn and make him really nervous about the Ohlearn Gap. And if we are really lucky and the weather holds, we might actually reach Guarnak before the spring thaw turns everything to mud on us."

That is surely speaking of him, his northern force [caribou/high hallow] and equally clearly its destination. I just can't read that any other way

He could as easily refer to his entire command as we. We (the Northern) command threaten the Ohlearn Gap and We (the Southern force) can get to Guarnak before the Spring thaw.

I have to ask what makes making Wyrshym worry about the Ohlearn Gap once they get to Fairkyn noteworthy? I suspect that the luck comes from getting Wyrshym to commit to moving North to the Ohlearn Gap. Why would that be beneficial? Why, if he wasn't intending to take Ohlearn Gap in the first place, he would almost certainly beat Wyrshym to Five Forks. Even if Wyrshym doesn't move to meet BGV, his worry about the Gap would lead him to expect BGV to take the Gap and head south. How long before he finds out BGV is headed to Five Forks? How much of a head start does BGV need to beet Wyrshym to Five Forks?

BGV isn't intending to surprise Wyrshym. He wants Wyrshym to know he is coming. If Wyrshym knows BGV is coming, he will sit tight until with luck it is too late to beat BGV to Five Forks. In the mean time, the Southern force attacks and uses the winter to degrade the AoG sufficiently to defeat easily. With luck they will be in Guarnak before the thaw.

Of course when he say luck while refering to the weather, he'd have pretty good ling range forcasts to go on.

PeterZ wrote:I totally agree. That's where the Gap forces come in. If BGV attacks the AoG in the Gap, he forces them to fight in the arctic conditions they are not prepared for. Slight wounds from mortars can lead to mortal wounds from the cold. Simply making soldiers bleed will cripple those soldiers in short order as their uniforms lose their ability to insulate.

If BGV could force his way through the blocking forces in the Gap and/or Greem Cove Trace, he wouldn't need to loop around through the Northland and Olearn gaps. He could just stay concentrated and plow right on through to Guarnak and Five Forks by the shortest route.

He needs to threaten, and/or attack those blocking forces from the backside of their fortifications to get the out of the way before the forces not equipped for winter campaigning can move to reinforce and resupply him with the spring thaw.

Recall that BGV's subordinates wanted to attack the AoG forces in the Gap before Winter set in. BGV thought it could work. If it could work in the Fall, it could work better in Winter. Rather than attack the Gap forces, BGV flanks the AoG with half his force.

I think that suggests the Gap can be taken with the Southern force.

Weird Harold wrote:

PeterZ wrote:I totally agree. That's where the Gap forces come in. If BGV attacks the AoG in the Gap, he forces them to fight in the arctic conditions they are not prepared for. Slight wounds from mortars can lead to mortal wounds from the cold. Simply making soldiers bleed will cripple those soldiers in short order as their uniforms lose their ability to insulate.

If BGV could force his way through the blocking forces in the Gap and/or Greem Cove Trace, he wouldn't need to loop around through the Northland and Olearn gaps. He could just stay concentrated and plow right on through to Guarnak and Five Forks by the shortest route.

He needs to threaten, and/or attack those blocking forces from the backside of their fortifications to get the out of the way before the forces not equipped for winter campaigning can move to reinforce and resupply him with the spring thaw.

PeterZ
Your understanding of the LAMA quote strikes me as very forced and unnatural. To use we in adjacent sentences of forces hundreds of miles apart is just really odd. I'm not even sure that BGV is still in command of the forces in the Sylmahn Gap; didn't they get a Siddarmarkian general who was moving up with the new forces?

As for luck BGV's references to it are most naturally understood as mainly referring to the weather - how far he gets depends how the local weather conditions pan out. When he says 'If we are really lucky and the weather holds', 'and the weather holds' is not an extra condition to being 'really lucky', it is an explanation of what it means to be 'really lucky' in this context. Since he is referring to a time span of 2-2.5 months, I don't believe that even OWL's weather forecasts are going to be locally accurate on that kind of time span; weather systems are chaotic in the mathematical sense i.e. infeasibly hard to predict the farther forward you go because changes in initial conditions too small and extensive to measure produce huge changes in outcomes.

RFC's definition of surprise comes to play here. He is describing BGV's thoughts not only to develop his character but also set up pleasant surprises for the reader. Taken all together, I don't believe BGV's Northern force is targeting Guarnak.

If I am correct, you guys will have a pleasant surprise. If I am wrong, I will have it. Regardless, I have grown unwilling to simply accept what RFC writes without considering all the implication thoroughly when there is time. With these snippets, there IS time.

Randomiser wrote:PeterZ
Your understanding of the LAMA quote strikes me as very forced and unnatural. To use we in adjacent sentences of forces hundreds of miles apart is just really odd. I'm not even sure that BGV is still in command of the forces in the Sylmahn Gap; didn't they get a Siddarmarkian general who was moving up with the new forces?

As for luck BGV's references to it are most naturally understood as mainly referring to the weather - how far he gets depends how the local weather conditions pan out. Since he is referring to a time span of 2-2.5 months, I don't believe that even OWL's weather forecasts are going to be locally accurate on that kind of time span; weather systems are chaotic in the mathematical sense i.e. infeasibly hard to predict the farther forward you go because changes in initial conditions too small and extensive to measure produce huge changes in outcomes.

Brigadier Wylsynn Traigair was shomping at the bit to take the 2nd Regiment around Wyvern Lake. Once the Temple Boys become aware of BGV's presence on their flank and their attencion is fixed it would be a good time to launch Traigair to Guarnak.

Hi PeterZ,

I concur with Randomiser.

Given the amount of ice on the lake at the moment, a winter amphibious assault is a little more difficult than you think.

You might consider looking up successful winter [ie snow and ice] amphibious assaults before you so blithely take such for granted.

A late spring assault after the ice has melted is far more likely to be considered by the officers risking their men [NTM their own lives], that is when General Mud has taken over the weather.

The Lake Wyvern garrison is fixed holding the north shore, separate from Wyrshym at Guarnak, so they both can be attacked and destroyed in detail, if the weather holds for BGV.

So the 'southern' alliance force could probably move faster on the lake than land during the mud season, especially with some help from steam tugs.

L

PeterZ wrote:Recall that BGV's subordinates wanted to attack the AoG forces in the Gap before Winter set in. BGV thought it could work. If it could work in the Fall, it could work better in Winter. Rather than attack the Gap forces, BGV flanks the AoG with half his force.

I think that suggests the Gap can be taken with the Southern force.

Weird Harold wrote:*quote="PeterZ"*I totally agree. That's where the Gap forces come in. If BGV attacks the AoG in the Gap, he forces them to fight in the arctic conditions they are not prepared for. Slight wounds from mortars can lead to mortal wounds from the cold. Simply making soldiers bleed will cripple those soldiers in short order as their uniforms lose their ability to insulate.*quote*

If BGV could force his way through the blocking forces in the Gap and/or Greem Cove Trace, he wouldn't need to loop around through the Northland and Olearn gaps. He could just stay concentrated and plow right on through to Guarnak and Five Forks by the shortest route.

He needs to threaten, and/or attack those blocking forces from the backside of their fortifications to get the out of the way before the forces not equipped for winter campaigning can move to reinforce and resupply him with the spring thaw.

You may be right about the winter amphib assault, Lyonheart. That isn't what I was referring to. Recall that Brigadier Taisyn (sp?) wanted to send mortars up into the foothills to cover an assault along the Western bank of Wyvern Lake. BGV was confident that it would work to get behind Wyrshym's lines on the North shore of Wyvern Lake. If that assault can work in the Fall, it can work better in the Winter. This assumes enough arctic gear to equip enough troops to make that assault.

I suspect there is.

lyonheart wrote:Hi PeterZ,

I concur with Randomiser.

Given the amount of ice on the lake at the moment, a winter amphibious assault is a little more difficult than you think.

You might consider looking up successful winter [ie snow and ice] amphibious assaults before you so blithely take such for granted.

A late spring assault after the ice has melted is far more likely to be considered by the officers risking their men [NTM their own lives], that is when General Mud has taken over the weather.

The Lake Wyvern garrison is fixed holding the north shore, separate from Wyrshym at Guarnak, so they both can be attacked and destroyed in detail, if the weather holds for BGV.

So the 'southern' alliance force could probably move faster on the lake than land during the mud season, especially with some help from steam tugs.

L

It seems to me that it could be that it would be useful for this discussion if we knew how many people that Wyrshym had in the Sylvan Gap and how many are in Guarnak.

When BGV rejected the idea for an assault across the lake at a place where a subordinate thought he had found a weak spot, it was for two reasons. First he had concerns about how the logistics would work out. Secondly he had it in mind to trap Wyrshym in the gap. I think that means slipping around behind the AOG and taking Guarnak. At least that seems to me to be the logical consequence of BVG's concern about the AOG staying in the Sylvan Gap area so they could be trapped.

When the proposal for assaulting across the lake was made, the Army of the Sylvan Gap was much larger than it is now. I recall a figure of about 65,000 left after the decision was made to send the pikemen to the rear to be rearmed with rifles and be retrained. Then there were the men sent off under Goryk (sp) to reinforce Allyntown and who so far as we know are still facing BGV.

What it ends up amounting to is that if Wyrshym has his forces split up, the assault across the lake becomes more feasible and BVG has an opportunity to defeat and destroy the AOG in detail.

Don