Official HFQ Snippet #10

EdThomas wrote:

n7axw wrote:Humm... Shovels are not all that effective against six foot of frost...

Don

Hi Don,
Unfortunately, they were sent in Sept.
"After you do that, instruct Bishop Gorthyk , Bishop Adulfo, and Bishop Harys to prepare their divisions for movement. I want them fully supplied with food, ammunition, winter clothing, and artillery support. Find the wagons and dragons wherever you have to, and make their rifle regiments up to full strength even if that means drafting men from other divisions." So we know they got there, let's say, mid-October, and they were equipped with winter gear, food and artillery.
BGV knows exactly where the three divisions, and whatever else Wyrshym could scrape up, are in the Gap and further west. He also seems confident his Scout Snipers will "confirm" this intel on their own. It'll be interesting to see how far in RFC has them get (at night of course where that high albedo'd moon may be a pain) to provide their fearless leader with accurate intel on the fortifications.

Yeah, but does that mean that they forted up to face BGV's attack when they weren't expecting it before spring since BGV was supposed to have gone into winter quarters? And whatever forting they manage, will it withstand the good baron's artillery?

Don

I think EdThomas is right, if direct attacks on Wyrsham's dug in forces are contemplated. But BGV doesn't have to do that. All he has to do is to cut their supply lines and then refuse to engage directly while still sitting somewhere on each city's supply lines. Wyrsham's forces, on the other hand, are immobilized by lack of winter clothing and poor supply. They can sally, but they can't travel far before the winter kills them as effectively as BGV could.

To me, BGV's biggest problems will come from the distances involved, and BGV's own logistical limitations. Allyntyn to St. Zhana? Call it 500+ km. St. Zhana to Fairkyn? Another 300 km. Fairkyn to Guarnak? Looks to be about 1000 km. Time to spring thaw (meaning, a month of mud)? 30-50 days?

BGV's taking a big bite. With good intelligence, effective use of forces, denial of enemies' supply, etc., yes, BGV can go far. But the questions still will wind up being, how far, and can he keep what he takes? The answer to those questions is going to be fluid.

Hi Ericth,

Right you are!

So if the moon enables BGV to night march very close to the Northland Gap camps, just as O'Connor did in
Operation Compass, surprise could be sudden several camps might be overrun before they know they've been attacked and taken.

If the new to quarter moon lasts 2-3 5days, BGV could take St Zhana and cross the river as well, possibly getting as far as Guarnak.

One week to the next fix, err snippet!

L

ericth wrote:

jgnfld wrote:
<snip>
If there is a half-to-full moon, it can be like daylight. <snip>

Didnt RFC recently mention in the thread on Safehold's moon that the greater albedo of the moon would be a factor in the books at some point?

lyonheart wrote:Hi braudel26,

Welcome to the forums, enjoy your favorite simulated beverage on the simulated forum.

The AoG left Lake City in early May of 896 YoG, which is several hundred miles north of BGV's AoO, so the north-land thaws and dries out faster than you thought.

Guarnak is as far as he expects to go in this winter campaign.

L

Hello Lyonheart,
thanks for the welcome and lots of virtual toasts to you !

In my copy of MT&T, AoG left Lake City in chapter III of June YOG 896. There is an explicit sentence in the first paragraph of this chapter "for spring and summer came late in these high northern latitudes".
As to the difference between Lake City and Guarnak, difficult to say since the maps don't give full mountains profile and how far northern cold air comes down depends a lot on that. Guarnak is more to the south than Lake City but Lake City has the dampening effect of the lakes... So ...we'll see
However when I said behind Guarnak I meant just behind Guarnak, I think it is already good enough for the the short-term objective of effectively eliminating this experienced CoGA army before the MHoG...gets into the fray.

Hi Braudel 126,

You're quite right.

I mis-remembered it as happening soon after Cayleb reached SC at the beginning of May.

Given Lake City is some 1400+ miles from Guarnak by river lake and canal, it would have taken Wyrshym at least 7 5days to get that far and perhaps another 5day to get to Serabor.

L

Braudel26 wrote:

lyonheart wrote:Hi braudel26,

Welcome to the forums, enjoy your favorite simulated beverage on the simulated forum.

The AoG left Lake City in early May of 896 YoG, which is several hundred miles north of BGV's AoO, so the north-land thaws and dries out faster than you thought.

Guarnak is as far as he expects to go in this winter campaign.

L

Hello Lyonheart,
thanks for the welcome and lots of virtual toasts to you !

In my copy of MT&T, AoG left Lake City in chapter III of June YOG 896. There is an explicit sentence in the first paragraph of this chapter "for spring and summer came late in these high northern latitudes".
As to the difference between Lake City and Guarnak, difficult to say since the maps don't give full mountains profile and how far northern cold air comes down depends a lot on that. Guarnak is more to the south than Lake City but Lake City has the dampening effect of the lakes... So ...we'll see
However when I said behind Guarnak I meant just behind Guarnak, I think it is already good enough for the the short-term objective of effectively eliminating this experienced CoGA army before the MHoG...gets into the fray.

If central Alaska is any guide, he should be able to move 6 to 10 miles a day on average. This allows for 'ice fog', and days of blowing snow (figure 1 day out 3), I'm not concerned about blizzards, because winter is generally too dry for significant precipitation in inland arctic areas.

I guess that BGV and his men will enjoy crisp star covered skies, and the northern lights.

Something I just thought of, looking at the best map I have available...

Let's say BGV's forces can average 10 mi/day for a sustained period. Let's also assume the thaw won't come for about 60 days from the time in Snippet 10. Finally, assume a campaign of isolation and cutting of supplies to Wyrshym's forces, while refusing to engage, thus starving any isolated forces out, or forcing them to sally over long distances and freeze.

With these assumptions, BVG can easily take St. Zhanas, Fairkyn and Ohlarhn, while Guarnak is a real stretch. BGV's primary goal, at least initially, is to isolate and destroy Wyrshym's forces, and thus he will push for Guarnak. Five Forks would be a wonderful objective, but I think people are dreaming here, unless there's a way for BGV to increase his troops' speed.

However, after those objectives, look at other towns nearby, and other things can be accomplished.

From Ohlarhn, it would be a relatively short step to isolate and take Hyrdmyn, thus isolating the northern port of Ranshair as well. Those two towns should have relatively small garrisons, so fending off reaction attacks from those two garrisons should be relatively easy. Further, if Ranshair is isolated, it should be relatively easy for naval and marine forces to secure it later in the spring or summer.

Hmmm... at that point, secure resupply access by sea,through the New Northland and Ice Ash Canals becomes available. Probably by early May.

Thus, BGV would be able, by mid-may, to both resupply and reinforce his army by water, which would both speed it up and reduce his need for draft animals (and their fodder). How much fun could he have then, in relatively open terrain with vastly superior intelligence? The only fly in the ointment likely would be destruction of canal locks from Hyrdmyn and from Guarnak/Ohlarhn west, at which point Charisan engineering capabilities had better be good.

Edit: Just realized, the locks on the Guarnak Ice Ash Canal were destroyed during the Great Canal Raid. It'll be interesting to see in what condition BGV's forces find those locks. I'm hoping Charis is better than CoGA in canal lock repairs...

There are so many possibilities for what's coming. I can't wait to see what RFC has in store for us!

Hi XofDallas,

I'm confident BGV is moving faster than that.

Ranshair is still in republic hands, but taking Hyrdmyn is a possibility since the New Northland Canal locks were untouched simply bypassed except probably where they connected with the Hildermoss river, so that canal would be available to BGV if he needed it for some strange reason.

Ranshair and the supply galleons are less than 1100 miles from Five forks come summer using that canal, if steam tugs are available by then as well, BGV would be less than 6 days from the supply ships, much closer than by way of the Sylman Gap.

L

XofDallas wrote:Something I just thought of, looking at the best map I have available...

Let's say BGV's forces can average 10 mi/day for a sustained period. Let's also assume the thaw won't come for about 60 days from the time in Snippet 10. Finally, assume a campaign of isolation and cutting of supplies to Wyrshym's forces, while refusing to engage, thus starving any isolated forces out, or forcing them to sally over long distances and freeze.

With these assumptions, BVG can easily take St. Zhanas, Fairkyn and Ohlarhn, while Guarnak is a real stretch. BGV's primary goal, at least initially, is to isolate and destroy Wyrshym's forces, and thus he will push for Guarnak. Five Forks would be a wonderful objective, but I think people are dreaming here, unless there's a way for BGV to increase his troops' speed.

However, after those objectives, look at other towns nearby, and other things can be accomplished.

From Ohlarhn, it would be a relatively short step to isolate and take Hyrdmyn, thus isolating the northern port of Ranshair as well. Those two towns should have relatively small garrisons, so fending off reaction attacks from those two garrisons should be relatively easy. Further, if Ranshair is isolated, it should be relatively easy for naval and marine forces to secure it later in the spring or summer.

Hmmm... at that point, secure resupply access by sea,through the New Northland and Ice Ash Canals becomes available. Probably by early May.

Thus, BGV would be able, by mid-may, to both resupply and reinforce his army by water, which would both speed it up and reduce his need for draft animals (and their fodder). How much fun could he have then, in relatively open terrain with vastly superior intelligence? The only fly in the ointment likely would be destruction of canal locks from Hyrdmyn and from Guarnak/Ohlarhn west, at which point Charisan engineering capabilities had better be good.

Edit: Just realized, the locks on the Guarnak Ice Ash Canal were destroyed during the Great Canal Raid. It'll be interesting to see in what condition BGV's forces find those locks. I'm hoping Charis is better than CoGA in canal lock repairs...

There are so many possibilities for what's coming. I can't wait to see what RFC has in store for us!

XofDallas wrote:Something I just thought of, looking at the best map I have available...

The best map is at http://infodump.thefifthimperium.com/en ... hold/338/1 although it is a bit difficult to use the scale and zoom in at the same time.

XofDallas wrote:Let's say BGV's forces can average 10 mi/day for a sustained period. Let's also assume the thaw won't come for about 60 days from the time in Snippet 10.

At that assumed rate, BGV only has about half as much time as he'll need to get from Alyntyn to Guarnak -- roughly 1200 miles or 120 days.

XofDallas wrote:Finally, assume a campaign of isolation and cutting of supplies to Wyrshym's forces, while refusing to engage, thus starving any isolated forces out, or forcing them to sally over long distances and freeze.

Given that BGV only has half as much time as he needs just to travel to Guarnak, he certainly doesn't have time for a siege -- i.e. starving them out by cutting their supplies.

His winter mobility gives BGV an extreme tactical advantage over the AoG; but he only has that advantage while it is still winter or early spring. He needs to use that advantage as a "force multiplier" and destroy the AOG in direct combat before the AOG regains its mobility with the arrival of spring.

XofDallas wrote:From Ohlarhn, it would be a relatively short step to isolate and take Hyrdmyn, thus isolating the northern port of Ranshair as well. Those two towns should have relatively small garrisons, so fending off reaction attacks from those two garrisons should be relatively easy. Further, if Ranshair is isolated, it should be relatively easy for naval and marine forces to secure it later in the spring or summer.

BGV doesn't have time or personnel to divert north and attack Hyrdmyn and to destroy the AoG; he needs the force multiplier of "General Winter" for the larger force and the "summer troops" following behind to reinforce (or coming north through Hildermoss Province via the Sylmahn Gap/Canal and Green Cove Trace.)

BGV's most productive course after taking Guarnak would be to remove the blocking forces keeping reinforcements from using the southern routes into Hildermoss. By the time he opens those routes, it will be nearly time for the summer campaigning season and he'll be more than ready for reinforcement and re-equipping for summer.

Weird Harold wrote:
At that assumed rate, BGV only has about half as much time as he'll need to get from Alyntyn to Guarnak -- roughly 1200 miles or 120 days.

That's my point. It's also why I don't think BGV will try for Five Forks.

Weird Harold wrote:
Given that BGV only has half as much time as he needs just to travel to Guarnak, he certainly doesn't have time for a siege -- i.e. starving them out by cutting their supplies.

His winter mobility gives BGV an extreme tactical advantage over the AoG; but he only has that advantage while it is still winter or early spring. He needs to use that advantage as a "force multiplier" and destroy the AOG in direct combat before the AOG regains its mobility with the arrival of spring.

Here I disagree, especially if Wyrshym thinks he can reinforce these towns faster than BGV can mount an attack on them. Wyrshym, given his supply situation, and not knowing of BGV's mobility, will keep the smallest garrisons he thinks he can get away with in each town, counting on being able to reinforce them in the spring.

Especially if BGV can mount mortar attacks on the AoG's shelters in each town, why not do just that, and leave a blocking force? Given the lack of mobility of Wyrshym's forces, and the fact that they could not attack anywhere that's over 30 miles from those towns in the dead of winter without freezing to death, why not do that and then leave a mobile blocking force? BGV might not have to leave anything more than a well-equipped platoon to interdict supplies (which is far different from besieging a town).

Yes, it could be very risky, and surprise may be a good force multiplier that would allow direct attacks. However, as was shown at Stalingrad, direct attacks on a town can be very costly in terms of both manpower and time. The point is, BGV has two other huge advantages, first in his mobility (and Wyrshym's forces' immobility) and second in equipment (giving rise to the fact that any attacks over 30 miles away from towns for Wyrshym's forces quite literally would be suicidal, in addition to being ineffective).

The situation reminds me of Raj Whitehall's strategy in the final book of Drake's/Stirling's "The General" series.

Weird Harold wrote:
BGV doesn't have time or personnel to divert north and attack Hyrdmyn and to destroy the AoG; he needs the force multiplier of "General Winter" for the larger force and the "summer troops" following behind to reinforce (or coming north through Hildermoss Province via the Sylmahn Gap/Canal and Green Cove Trace.)

I agree. But damn, it would be a tempting target... Let's call it a "stretch goal," and one that is more realistic than reaching Five Forks. Perhaps it's not much more realistic, granted, but Hyrdmyn would be very tempting for someone wanting to secure a strategic or tactical advantage for a summer campaign, especially where the target would be far more vulnerable in the winter than in the spring.

Your points are well taken, and what you're proposing may very well be what winds up happening. I'm just suggesting there may be a different way of doing it that might cost BGV far less in terms of time and troops, given the unique situation here. MacArthur used this strategy in his island hopping campaign. Might it be used here? I don't know, but that's what makes this so entertaining.