Lacöon I

kzt wrote:

stewart wrote:The Hauptman Cartel was running a lot of shipping in Silecia -- that and the runs to the Andies has not changed, other than being safer since the Silies are now under Andie and SEM Protectorates. I am sure that Hauptman also has multiple runs to Beowulf and now runs to the Talbott Quadrant. Opening up the Haven Sector to Manty commerce will replace most lost shipping to the League.

Sure. And they are shipping WHAT? Rocks? There are NO finished goods,as the factories all blowed up. They could ship them good from the SL, but no, they can't. So what the heck do you think they are shipping to them?

Well, specifically the Manticoran, and to a lesser extent Grayson (because I assume they had more planet based manufacturing) factories got blown up.

But you can ship more than just good from your own factories. I'm sure there's still trade in moving stuff. Beowulf, the Andies, the Silesians, and the Havenites all still have factories and probably want stuff from each other. Will that be as much stuff as the manticoran merchant marine moved around the SL? No. Especially not immediately. But Haven has a rising standard of living, and Silesia is finally having the corruptions and graft cleaned up and will probably be getting its economic house more in order.

Plus of course the new wormhole into the Talbott Quadrant opens up new parts of the verge to trade from the Haven sector (even if you assume that trade from their into the League is currently off limits)

And if other League members follow Beowulf's lead and declare independence then they're open for trade again as well.


At first there will be less trade, and that (and the associated drop in junction transit fees) will be a hell of a blow to the Manticoran System economy as well as to the individual shipping lines. But the shipping demand won't drop to zero and there are newly open and growing markets for shipping even before Manticore gets its orbital factories rebuilt.

There are NO ground based Manticoran factories. That's prety much a direct quote from David.

Most everything for the entire economy was built on the two primary platforms by a total of a million or two workers, virtually all of whom are dead. Note that I mentioned earlier that Honorverse economics are not exactly the strongest point of the Davis's worldbuilding?

Hutch wrote:quote="stewart"][The first GA Targets are going to be the SLN Battle Fleet bases and NAVAL shipyards. -- Those yards designed and capable of support / repair of a major military ship.

Compare a Bremerton NSY or Norfolk-Newport News as a current example of a Naval support capable yard and Todd Pacific (San Pedro / Los Angeles) as a civilian / commercial yard.
the ship sizes may be similar, but the necessary support infrastructure is not there.

Terekov did not hit the civilian side of the Monica yards (although they were hip-deep in it and all knew it)

The military yards are toast, the civilian yards are likely just going to get a very THOROUGH inspection.

-- Stewart

Zakharra wrote: An inspection by whom? Pretty much all shipyards in the SL are gearing up to start churning out ships. I can see a lot of them building both civilian and military vessels (if only for SDF reasons). There's a LOT of ships that are suddenly needed just for the civilian market, now the SLN needs a hell of a lot of ships (small ones) built for raiding purposes as well as defense. It's very likely that for while, there will be a hodgepodge of ships being built and even in yards building just military ships, no system is going to like anyone, even the GA coming in and wrecking the yards. Even if the military yards is all they destroy. That's a loss of life and massive investment capital, not to mention that it means that military ship building would have to move to the civilian yards. I can;t see how any system is going to be happy with the GA for just destroying military targets in their system.

While I see your point, Zakharra, I think you're underestimating the time line. The Battle of Spindle and Oyster Bay occured in Feb 1922 and Lacoon II began really kicking into operation around June 1922, post-Filareta. The withdrawal of the MMM was somewhere between those times, IIRC.

Most of the Core and Shell knows about Spindle, and is now aware that their economy is being affected, but there has simply not been enough time to hold the meetings, order the ships (commercial and military), contract for the ships (and I do not expect government/military contracting to be any simpler in the future than it is now), allocate the resources and build the ships, and then crew them.

And commercial ships are normally built/paid for by commercial organizations..i.e., the transtellars, who are about to find themselves in some economic trouble....

Either way, it's going to take time. And that is a commodity the SL is going to find themselves fatally short of. And that Manticore/GA can exploit politically as well as militarily if they are smart.

IMHO as always. YMMV.[/quote]


I know that and was basing my comment off that the SL/SLN leadership knows this -now- and that there will soon be orders going out to build as many ships as possible, civilian as well as military warships, as well as factories. Those facilities that are in civilian systems (not purely military dominated depot and such. I'm sure there are a few systems like that) will have to be attacked and even if only military shipyards are destroyed, that represents a LOT of civilian investment in funds and workers lost, and if there's a civilian shipyard left in the system, guess what will start being used to build warships? Like it or not, it would be seen as systematic destruction of system infrastructure. military or civilian, its destruction would affect the system's economy, the larger the yards, the larger the impact. That can't be taken well.

kzt wrote:There are NO ground based Manticoran factories. That's prety much a direct quote from David.

Most everything for the entire economy was built on the two primary platforms by a total of a million or two workers, virtually all of whom are dead. Note that I mentioned earlier that Honorverse economics are not exactly the strongest point of the Davis's worldbuilding?

I may have phrased that poorly - trying to cram too many thoughts into one sentence.

I know Manticore had virtually entirely orbital based manifacturing - and it all got blown up. They're not making anything for export (nor for domestic use)

I was attempting to say that while the Grayson orbital manufacturing also got blow up, I assumed Grayson had a non-trivial amount of ground side factories - so those could still be manufacturing items (including some for export). (So when I said they had "more" groundside, I really meant "more than zero" )


And then beyond that there's still need to ship things to Manticore and Grayson, and the need to ships things around between Beowulf, Havenite systems, Andermandi systems, newly partitioned Silesia, Talbott Sector, and any neutrals (or newly independent ex-SL systems)


(But I'm not quibbling on your point that the economic model isn't a strong point of the series )

Zakharra wrote: I know that and was basing my comment off that the SL/SLN leadership knows this -now- and that there will soon be orders going out to build as many ships as possible, civilian as well as military warships, as well as factories. Those facilities that are in civilian systems (not purely military dominated depot and such. I'm sure there are a few systems like that) will have to be attacked and even if only military shipyards are destroyed, that represents a LOT of civilian investment in funds and workers lost, and if there's a civilian shipyard left in the system, guess what will start being used to build warships? Like it or not, it would be seen as systematic destruction of system infrastructure. military or civilian, its destruction would affect the system's economy, the larger the yards, the larger the impact. That can't be taken well.

But where are the trillions of Dollars going to come from for the SLN/SL Government to fund this emergency building program? Taxes are more likely to cause planets to split off from the SL than join it, given the lack of direct taxation throughout the SL's history.

That said, I agree that attacking manufacturing centers, be they military or civilian (I am not presuming high casualties, as I expect the GA to allow for evacuation prior to destruction). Still, this is War and people often get pissed off during war (I imagine the Georgia civilians in the path of Sherman's 'bummers' were a bit put out....). How Manticore/the GA handles this will be something we need to closely watch come the next book.

We shall see...eventually.

Hutch wrote:

Zakharra wrote: I know that and was basing my comment off that the SL/SLN leadership knows this -now- and that there will soon be orders going out to build as many ships as possible, civilian as well as military warships, as well as factories. Those facilities that are in civilian systems (not purely military dominated depot and such. I'm sure there are a few systems like that) will have to be attacked and even if only military shipyards are destroyed, that represents a LOT of civilian investment in funds and workers lost, and if there's a civilian shipyard left in the system, guess what will start being used to build warships? Like it or not, it would be seen as systematic destruction of system infrastructure. military or civilian, its destruction would affect the system's economy, the larger the yards, the larger the impact. That can't be taken well.

But where are the trillions of Dollars going to come from for the SLN/SL Government to fund this emergency building program? Taxes are more likely to cause planets to split off from the SL than join it, given the lack of direct taxation throughout the SL's history.

That said, I agree that attacking manufacturing centers, be they military or civilian (I am not presuming high casualties, as I expect the GA to allow for evacuation prior to destruction). Still, this is War and people often get pissed off during war (I imagine the Georgia civilians in the path of Sherman's 'bummers' were a bit put out....). How Manticore/the GA handles this will be something we need to closely watch come the next book.

We shall see...eventually.

I think the banking sectors would write loans to the SL government, and many system governments will likely put some of their own money into the pot to develop their own systems industrial capacity: all funding isn't going to just come from the federal level, the systems themselves have a hell of a LOT of money floating around that could be utilized. When those systems find out the economic and military situation, if they haven't already, they are going to want their own defenses and those with shipyards will start building freighters that will be needed -now- if not last month.

Another thing to remember is the systems and corporations have already noticed that the Manty merchant ships are missing so there should be merchant vessels being built right now, the warships will be what has to play catch up, but I can see many systems expanding current yards and/or starting new ones just to capitalize on the expanding economic opportunity.

[quote="Zakharra"]


I think the banking sectors would write loans to the SL government, and many system governments will likely put some of their own money into the pot to develop their own systems industrial capacity: all funding isn't going to just come from the federal level, the systems themselves have a hell of a LOT of money floating around that could be utilized. When those systems find out the economic and military situation, if they haven't already, they are going to want their own defenses and those with shipyards will start building freighters that will be needed -now- if not last month.

------------------

Unless the Banking sectors have their figurative arms twisted up to their shoulder-blades, the SL bankers are likely to want to sit this one out, or transfer assets and resources to non-affected galactic sectors and respond that independent capital is "tight right now" and suggest that the SL Government self-finance.

Private sector shipping companies might encounter shipping premiums going into conflict zones.

New construction commercial / merchant shipping might find easier production/construction venues away from the core areas.

They're not "running scared" -- just being "prudent"

-- Stewart

Zakharra wrote:
Another thing to remember is the systems and corporations have already noticed that the Manty merchant ships are missing so there should be merchant vessels being built right now, the warships will be what has to play catch up, but I can see many systems expanding current yards and/or starting new ones just to capitalize on the expanding economic opportunity.

---------------

Most of the real corporations are going to ignore the pronouncements of the SL Government E&I.

Major corporations run on information and will either verify it, or (usually) have it before the government and ignore the political posturing of the "official spokes-critters"
The Sollie newsies were in Spindle just after the Battle of Spindle and likely also at Manticore before and after Filereta's demise. Whatever the official party line, the corporate heads were getting a MUCH more accurate report from their intel sources.
We might see several major corporations quietly relocating corporate assets off-Terra.

-- Stewart

Hi Hutch,

How was HonorCon?

Given those in the know and all those with good access to Sol knew about Operation "Raging Justice" expected Filareta to restore things to normal, so they avoided wasting money ordering ships that wouldn't be needed, until the news of his fate finally came in late June or early July.

So its only been three month's, and freighters take much longer to build, major warships even longer.

Once the attack on Beowulf is resolved either way, the GA will be reducing if not eliminating the SLN and the threat of the BF and its reserve to the rest of the SL, so the mandarins' ability to threaten or compel the rest of the SL is eliminated.

For the vast majority of the SL, the 2/3 with only LAC's is going to be very pleased not to have the BF club in their face, and may request a GA police force [a couple of SDP's etc] to protect them from the SLN, while others will worry more about their neighbors than the GA, and request a GA police force [a couple of SDP's etc], before getting into the better economic terms etc the GA is offering, so major parts of the SL will find the GA far more preferable than the SL fairly soon.

L

Hutch wrote:

stewart wrote:[The first GA Targets are going to be the SLN Battle Fleet bases and NAVAL shipyards. -- Those yards designed and capable of support / repair of a major military ship.

Compare a Bremerton NSY or Norfolk-Newport News as a current example of a Naval support capable yard and Todd Pacific (San Pedro / Los Angeles) as a civilian / commercial yard.
the ship sizes may be similar, but the necessary support infrastructure is not there.

Terekov did not hit the civilian side of the Monica yards (although they were hip-deep in it and all knew it)

The military yards are toast, the civilian yards are likely just going to get a very THOROUGH inspection.

-- Stewart

Zakharra wrote: An inspection by whom? Pretty much all shipyards in the SL are gearing up to start churning out ships. I can see a lot of them building both civilian and military vessels (if only for SDF reasons). There's a LOT of ships that are suddenly needed just for the civilian market, now the SLN needs a hell of a lot of ships (small ones) built for raiding purposes as well as defense. It's very likely that for while, there will be a hodgepodge of ships being built and even in yards building just military ships, no system is going to like anyone, even the GA coming in and wrecking the yards. Even if the military yards is all they destroy. That's a loss of life and massive investment capital, not to mention that it means that military ship building would have to move to the civilian yards. I can;t see how any system is going to be happy with the GA for just destroying military targets in their system.

While I see your point, Zakharra, I think you're underestimating the time line. The Battle of Spindle and Oyster Bay occured in Feb 1922 and Lacoon II began really kicking into operation around June 1922, post-Filareta. The withdrawal of the MMM was somewhere between those times, IIRC.

Most of the Core and Shell knows about Spindle, and is now aware that their economy is being affected, but there has simply not been enough time to hold the meetings, order the ships (commercial and military), contract for the ships (and I do not expect government/military contracting to be any simpler in the future than it is now), allocate the resources and build the ships, and then crew them.

And commercial ships are normally built/paid for by commercial organizations..i.e., the transtellars, who are about to find themselves in some economic trouble....

Either way, it's going to take time. And that is a commodity the SL is going to find themselves fatally short of. And that Manticore/GA can exploit politically as well as militarily if they are smart.

IMHO as always. YMMV.

lyonheart wrote:For the vast majority of the SL, the 2/3 with only LAC's is going to be very pleased not to have the BF club in their face, and may request a GA police force [a couple of SDP's etc] to protect them from the SLN, while others will worry more about their neighbors than the GA, and request a GA police force [a couple of SDP's etc], before getting into the better economic terms etc the GA is offering, so major parts of the SL will find the GA far more preferable than the SL fairly soon.

They can request whatever they want. Good luck with getting the RMN or the RHN to disperse their combat power over a thousand systems an average of 6 months from base.

So no, those systems are going to be SOL and shall likely soon reap the full reward of their centuries of economizing on defense.