Hi Anwi,
Don't worry, HFQ won't cover the alliance overrunning the rest of the world.
Worrying about repetitive plots is not something RFC fans really have to deal with given what a great storyteller he is.
Ever since father Paityr mentioned it, finding out what the thing(s) in the basement is/are has been driving the inner circle's efforts to find out how the archangels return in less than 20 years.
For some time here that's been the real reason for the raid on the temple or occupation, ie cover for such an investigation.
Once the MHoGatA has been defeated, the Go4 have shot their wad, they don't have anything left to train and equip in time before the alliance advances to Zion, which BGV could do before next winter.
Given the 80-90% serfs in the Border States and temple lands, and the EoC's firm stand to emancipate all serf's [known but never publicly mentioned by them], will go a long way to reducing any anti alliance opposition to a nullity in the face of such popular support; with most of those who might try such probably fleeing the retribution of their serfs etc as the various governments collapse in the face of the alliance advance.
So the inner circle won't be worried about conquering hostile territory, it'll be bringing law and order if not justice to liberated lands, and some few may have rebelled and liberated themselves at terrible cost.
What defensive line in Siddarmark or on its border do you see or suggest?
RFC among others has already dealt with the impossibility of trench warfare by pointing out that unlike the unique situation of WW1, Haven is a true continent thousands of miles wide, not the narrow four hundred miles of the western front; again Safehold's conflict has far too few soldiers, even the MHoGatA is small by comparison [with at best only 40% of those armed with rifles] with the several million trained reservists in 1914 on both sides that created the high density ratio that compelled the trenches.
So there are always flanks to take advantage of on Haven, which someone has or will.
Given the time CoGA armies take to form for battle even if the ICA chose to play that game, the ICA can wreck or ruin at least 30% of the separate sub armies before the CO's realize they've already lost despite still trying to arrange everything where they think the battle's going to happen.
No one has suggested that Desnar can afford to create organise and equip let alone send another army north for some time since its already being subsidized by the temple, and the CoGA can't afford to waste any more money on Desnar; the commerce raiders being about the best Desnar can do.
Silkiah and Dohlar will be dealt with in HFQ, but perhaps not in the fashion you expect.
All of Howard will soon be physically cut off from the Go4, who'll be left with only the temple lands and North Harchong to face an alliance force now with something approaching almost 2 million men armed with rifles and cannon etc that are effectively unstoppable by whatever pathetic scraps the CoGA dredges up.
In other words it will be the CoGA armies that will have the few thousand rifles at best facing hundreds of thousands, not to mention far deadlier artillery etc, so the probability of alliance Pyrrhic victories will be nil.
I suspect the prospect of unbeaten alliance armies advancing on Zion and the temple lands at will, will do far more to make the vicarate 'reasonable' than simply standing pat somewhere inside Siddarmark, essentially giving the Go4 another chance to attack.
The odds of the RSA, let alone the Lord Protector agreeing with that are astronomical, IMO.
L
anwi wrote:lyonheart wrote:Hi Don,
What's to stop the alliance armies from advancing into the Border states, when they've been disarmed to equip the MHoGatA?
Given the effective destruction of the AoG, plus the huge number of serfs seeking freedom, what's to stop the alliance armies from seizing the eastern temple lands?
The main question then is do they all become part of the Siddarmark Republic, or simply smaller versions allied to the now dominant continental power?
Given the hints regarding an amphibious invasion via Temple Bay, and the ICA's apparent ability to last the winter, I'm not too worried about a winter long occupation of Zion and the temple.
Rather pity the CoGA fool or whoever tries to attack the alliance occupation force in the middle of the winter.
Several remarks.
If there's an attack to Zion using the KHVII and a proper invasion fleet, then there's no need for actually occupying more ground than necessary. In fact, tying down Temple Land troops well away from Zion would probably help with such an attack. So, finding a suitable defensive frontline might be preferrable.
From what we've seen so far on the CoGA armies, their operations failed because they couldn't possibly bring their superior numbers into play. In advancing, they had to follow established (and strained) lines of communication. The relative ease of ICA victories (very small number of casulaties) is IMO caused by this factor RFC has built into the scenario. With RFC constantly feeding the CoGA intelligence on the new EoC weapons for levelling the playing field, I'm rather expecting that the armies will run into a kind of trench warfare scenario. Although the frontlines are excessively long, the routes of advance for major armies are rather limited, still. Anyways, dislodging the CoGA on the defensive will mean breaking fortified positions. You can do that if you can cut off communications, as we're going to see, but I don't think that's so easy if we're talking about the Border States or the Temple Lands.
Moreover, serious offensive operations will lead to mounting casulty figures for the ICA. And given the numbers game, the ICA (and the EoC) can probably not even afford one Pyrrhic victory. Thus, actually conquering potentially hostile territory will be something the inner circle is reluctant to do.
For HFQ, we expect the crushing defeat of the Mighty Host. After that, there should be serious repercussions for the leadership of the Jihad. Since the EoC has not actually broken the proscriptions, even the justification of the Jihad might be questioned, given that God is obviously favouring the Charisians. That'll lead to an interesting situation in Zion - if there's no Siddarmarkian army threatening immediate revenge. With some nudging by Aivah, the inner circle might find a way of actually breaking the CoGA alliance.
From a storytelling perspective, what novelty value is there in crushing the second Desnarian host? Myself, I don't look forward to 3 further books with EoC armies overrunning Silkiah, Dohlar, and the rest of the world. I expect the storyline started by Aivah to take over after HFQ at the latest. And it has to be something which shakes up the current situation significantly, else the story gets kind of repetitive.
As to a EoC attack on Zion: That might happen. Currently, I don't see what would be the point of occupying the Temple for a short period of time, except settling accounts with Clyntahn and his minions. All the reasons why Merlin can't operate on Temple grounds still apply with EoC troops guarding the entrances. It might be worth while as a psychological element for defeating the CoGA willingness to pursue the Jihad and break current power structures. But you'd better be sure that this will be working out as planned.
For me, the question is if the next major twist comes before an expedition to Zion. And I'd say yes.
