Official HFQ Snippet #10

Randomiser wrote:The lack of much dating within months does often make detailed assessment of the situations difficult, but I have been wondering how much winter is really left too. Obviously Charis have put a LOT of effort and money into the cold weather preparations so BGV and Higher must think it will be worth it. OTOH we can't inflate the mpd figure just to make that work out. The time available is one of the reasons that I don't think they are heading for Lake City, it looks at least 50% further than Guarnak. 'Slamming the door behind Wyrshym' by getting just north of Guarnak makes perfect sense to me.

I'd say that Lake City is several times the distance BGV will have to march to get to Guarnak

SCC wrote:

Randomiser wrote:The lack of much dating within months does often make detailed assessment of the situations difficult, but I have been wondering how much winter is really left too. Obviously Charis have put a LOT of effort and money into the cold weather preparations so BGV and Higher must think it will be worth it. OTOH we can't inflate the mpd figure just to make that work out. The time available is one of the reasons that I don't think they are heading for Lake City, it looks at least 50% further than Guarnak. 'Slamming the door behind Wyrshym' by getting just north of Guarnak makes perfect sense to me.

I'd say that Lake City is several times the distance BGV will have to march to get to Guarnak

From Northland Gap Lake City is about 1,500 miles to Gaurnak's 1,000.

Randomiser wrote:SNIP

I think he meant that they have to plan to be in shape to fight an action near the end of a day, in case it occurs, not that they would be doing so regularly.

The lack of much dating within months does often make detailed assessment of the situations difficult, but I have been wondering how much winter is really left too. Obviously Charis have put a LOT of effort and money into the cold weather preparations so BGV and Higher must think it will be worth it. OTOH we can't inflate the mpd figure just to make that work out. The time available is one of the reasons that I don't think they are heading for Lake City, it looks at least 50% further than Guarnak. 'Slamming the door behind Wyrshym' by getting just north of Guarnak makes perfect sense to me.

Exactly what he did mean

I concur with your understanding of 'shutting the door' If BGV gets to Guarnak, and the Army of the Sylmahn stays holding the Sylmahn [as Clyntahn is likely to demand], then their main route out is gone.

Hi Randomiser,

By my measurement its at least 1400 miles by canal and river to Guarnak from Lake City, so the MHoGatA is around 80 days if not more than three month's, so we're looking at June-July before they become a real problem.

I have to clarify; I never meant to imply I agreed with those who thought BGV was or should be headed for Lake City before dealing with Wyrshym.

That also means eliminating the Northland Gap garrisons with Gorthyk Nybar at the top of the list because he's so good, along with the other general who's been retraining his division.

Eliminating them so the lessons they've learned are not passed along to the rest of the AoG or the MHoGatA, is one great advantage of the winter campaign; non-surrendered survivors will be few if not non-existent.

It's still March, though when in March is the question.

Given the Army of the Sylman's inability to march in this weather, destruction in detail seems a golden opportunity for BGV, if the rest of the AoS [the only AoS left] is largely split between Guarnak and the Wyvern Lake shore front so they're as small as if not individually smaller than BGV's ~30K, especially if those camps represent the 16-20% of Wyrshym's army I've posted before [if BGV attacks the Northern Gap from the rear or supply routes, this will remind me even more strongly of Richard O'Connor's attacks on the Italian camps in Operation Compass.

We don't have textev for any other army posts between Guarnak and the Northern Gap, though there are probably garrisons in the few towns and watches at the bridges over the Ice Ash and Kalgaran rivers, eastern front experience in WWII indicated that 3' of ice would support the heaviest of tanks, which implies the sleds of the scout snipers, dragoons, and infantry ought to do just fine on less if they choose to cross at unwatched fords north of the bridges.

So given very bad blizzards that keeps the semaphore line from working for days and Wyrshym may nor know what's happening until St. Zhana is taken, and perhaps not even then if the weather is still bad.

So the first inkling Bahrnabai may get is when BGV arrives outside Guarnak, or takes a position astride his supply line, perhaps a day or two or even a 5 day west.

However since I prefer the destroy in detail option, however elegant simply cutting his supplies again is, I'd expect the Guarnak garrison to be eliminated before the
Lake Wyvern shore defense group is able to move to join it, which is then destroyed by both BGV and the alliance force that's been holding the southern Lake shore until BGV gives the word it's finally time to move.

L


[quote="Randomiser"][quote="lyonheart"]Hi Graydon,

Thanks for the many good points.

I'm not sure about the increased axial tilt [I couldn't find it on my kindle for LaMA], but since its mid-late March, and the AoG left Lake City at the beginning of May 896 after deliberately letting the ground dry which happens to be several hundred miles north of BGV's area of operations, I expect only 30-40 days left in the local winter campaign season and 15 miles per day seems too low for BGV's advance to be worth it, 20-25 MPD seems far more likely.

Fighting a battle at the end of every day is a stretch for me, since there shouldn't be that much fighting as far as normal battles go, given how pathetically prepared the AoG's troops are in the Northland Gap apparently.

[/quote]


I think he meant that they have to plan to be in shape to fight an action near the end of a day, in case it occurs, not that they would be doing so regularly.

The lack of much dating within months does often make detailed assessment of the situations difficult, but I have been wondering how much winter is really left too. Obviously Charis have put a LOT of effort and money into the cold weather preparations so BGV and Higher must think it will be worth it. OTOH we can't inflate the mpd figure just to make that work out. The time available is one of the reasons that I don't think they are heading for Lake City, it looks at least 50% further than Guarnak. 'Slamming the door behind Wyrshym' by getting just north of Guarnak makes perfect sense to me.[/quote]

Hi Randomizer and Lyonheart,

Wasn't it Napoleon who commented, "Ask me for anything but time." In a way that is BGV's problem. He needs to finish business with the AOG before he can turn his attention east and prepare to deal with the Harchongians...

I wonder what plans Symkyns has for Kaitswryth and how those will play out. The same for DE, EHM and Hanth...They are all facing the same time issue. Nobody wants to face the Harchongians with an unreduced enemy at their backs.


Don

I did a quick search and got this:
http://www.dnr.state.mn.us/safety/ice/thickness.html

so hard frozen ice more than ~5-6" and most of the charisian troops can pretty much count it as "safe"
the only units that might need more than ~6" - 1' would be "heavy units such as the food units and possibly some dragons depending on their foot size to mass :p

lyonheart wrote:Hi Randomiser,

(snip)
Given the Army of the Sylman's inability to march in this weather, destruction in detail seems a golden opportunity for BGV, if the rest of the AoS [the only AoS left] is largely split between Guarnak and the Wyvern Lake shore front so they're as small as if not individually smaller than BGV's ~30K, especially if those camps represent the 16-20% of Wyrshym's army I've posted before [if BGV attacks the Northern Gap from the rear or supply routes, this will remind me even more strongly of Richard O'Connor's attacks on the Italian camps in Operation Compass.
(snip)
So given very bad blizzards that keeps the semaphore line from working for days and Wyrshym may nor know what's happening until St. Zhana is taken, and perhaps not even then if the weather is still bad.

So the first inkling Bahrnabai may get is when BGV arrives outside Guarnak, or takes a position astride his supply line, perhaps a day or two or even a 5 day west.

However since I prefer the destroy in detail option, however elegant simply cutting his supplies again is, I'd expect the Guarnak garrison to be eliminated before the
Lake Wyvern shore defense group is able to move to join it, which is then destroyed by both BGV and the alliance force that's been holding the southern Lake shore until BGV gives the word it's finally time to move.

Hi, I agree with most of the points. However, I think that Wyrshym will know what's coming for him. But he'll not comprehend in time the mobility of BGV and his use thereof. BGV will probably rather brush aside the troops in the Northland gap. And then "encircling" the Army of the Sylmahn would set the scene for a strategic victory. Block supplies and shell the store houses and Wyrshym is toast. Because that approach minimizes ICA casulaties (probably a major consideration), I think it'll be the capture and siege option.

One minor point: Blizzards should be the one thing BGV doesn't want. That'll force him to stop and lose the days when there's still solid snow. And thawing should begin sometime in April...

Graydon wrote:...

How much daylight do you have? It gets colder when it gets dark, and moving in the dark is more dangerous; either you use lights and make yourself immensely obvious to everyone inside the visual horizon, or you can't see where you're going in the freezing dark which leads to casualties. (You know how hyperthermia makes you irritable and angry? Hypothermia makes you dull and stupid.) With the increased axial tilt of Safehold the shortened days at increased latitude are more pronounced, too, though I don't know as we've got a specific number for the tilt or the latitudes involved. I suspect available daylight is the sharper constraint, at least at the start of the march.

...

For movements, night is not a terrible obstacle to ski troops, and I assume snowshoe troops as well. In the farther northern regions in winter, the hi pressure systems lead to crystal clear air and even starlight provides enough illumination for going along a track in the open. If there is a half-to-full moon, it can be like daylight. Certainly the Finns did a lot of night movements in the Winter War. Certainly I never had any trouble along any sort along an established trail unlighted when I lived in Minnesota and did a lot of cross country skiing. If you only operated during the day, you only operate for hours at anything over 45N. In Finland you would hardly be able to operate at all!

Ski troops were considered to be more rather than less mobile than the same units in the summer as rivers and lakes become fast supply corridors and cross country skiing is inherently faster than slogging. Snowshoeing is slower, of course. I have seen my son's winter infantry equipment. The Cdn infantry uses snowshoes made out of magnesium which, of course, can be used for several other purposes! Maybe Merlin should suggest something along those lines!!!

lyonheart wrote:Hi Randomiser,

By my measurement its at least 1400 miles by canal and river to Guarnak from Lake City, so the MHoGatA is around 80 days if not more than three month's, so we're looking at June-July before they become a real problem.

I have to clarify; I never meant to imply I agreed with those who thought BGV was or should be headed for Lake City before dealing with Wyrshym.

That also means eliminating the Northland Gap garrisons with Gorthyk Nybar at the top of the list because he's so good, along with the other general who's been retraining his division.

Eliminating them so the lessons they've learned are not passed along to the rest of the AoG or the MHoGatA, is one great advantage of the winter campaign; non-surrendered survivors will be few if not non-existent.

It's still March, though when in March is the question.

Given the Army of the Sylman's inability to march in this weather, destruction in detail seems a golden opportunity for BGV, if the rest of the AoS [the only AoS left] is largely split between Guarnak and the Wyvern Lake shore front so they're as small as if not individually smaller than BGV's ~30K, especially if those camps represent the 16-20% of Wyrshym's army I've posted before [if BGV attacks the Northern Gap from the rear or supply routes, this will remind me even more strongly of Richard O'Connor's attacks on the Italian camps in Operation Compass.

We don't have textev for any other army posts between Guarnak and the Northern Gap, though there are probably garrisons in the few towns and watches at the bridges over the Ice Ash and Kalgaran rivers, eastern front experience in WWII indicated that 3' of ice would support the heaviest of tanks, which implies the sleds of the scout snipers, dragoons, and infantry ought to do just fine on less if they choose to cross at unwatched fords north of the bridges.

So given very bad blizzards that keeps the semaphore line from working for days and Wyrshym may nor know what's happening until St. Zhana is taken, and perhaps not even then if the weather is still bad.

So the first inkling Bahrnabai may get is when BGV arrives outside Guarnak, or takes a position astride his supply line, perhaps a day or two or even a 5 day west.

However since I prefer the destroy in detail option, however elegant simply cutting his supplies again is, I'd expect the Guarnak garrison to be eliminated before the
Lake Wyvern shore defense group is able to move to join it, which is then destroyed by both BGV and the alliance force that's been holding the southern Lake shore until BGV gives the word it's finally time to move.

snip

Hi Lyonheart

I'm with you on this. Especially if W has to rush troops from their winter campments to try to hold the Ohlarhn Gap - for under equipped troops that would serious degrade their effectiveness even before combat.

Something that does interest me is what state the semaphore chain is actually in? I had assumed that it was ok from Midhold right back to Guarnack - given the speed at which Wrysham go the news about BGV's initial attack up the Tairmina canal to Maiyam.

glared at the...misfortune to bring him the semaphore dispatch

However in snippet 9 we saw BGV' engineers repairing a tower in the Midhold plateau on his march from Allyntyn - so I'm wondering how operative that chain still is - especially if some towers by the Ish Ash canal were taken out before [by Merlin] and during the great canal raid.

I.e. is Wrysham able to work with a complete chain of semaphore communications? or has he had to improvise stop gaps?

Of course, I suppose that there might be more than one chain across Midhold...

jgnfld wrote: The Cdn infantry uses snowshoes made out of magnesium which, of course, can be used for several other purposes! Maybe Merlin should suggest something along those lines!!!

We used them as shovels for moving snow so we could set up our tents. They were not, perhaps, the worlds greatest shovels but the got the job done, and it beat pulling the real thing on the toboggan.